|
|
Post by mm67 on Jul 25, 2022 13:51:00 GMT -5
Obviously, HC has lost players to the transfer portal. This has greatly hampered the success of the team.
Question: Have other PL teams experienced losses to the transfer portal to the same degree as has HC?
If so then we are starting basically from the same place. HC would not be at a particular disadvantage.
If not and HC is experiencing greater losses to the transfer portal, the question is why
Possibly, no one likes a loser so guys transfer out. Losing cycle - can't establish a winning culture without wins and can't win games without a winning culture.
Has this coach at least established a foundation upon which to take the necessary steps to build a winning culture? Young, inexperienced head coach at a disadvantage? Certainly loyalty to the coach has to be an issue. Round & round we go like a cat chasing its tail.
|
|
|
|
Post by Non Alum Dave on Jul 25, 2022 14:04:25 GMT -5
IMHO it appears the PL is still in an overall down cycle, so that may help. But breaking up a losing culture is not easy.
Here's a sobering, not so fun fact: outside of GG's freshman season at UNO, not one player on the roster has experienced a winning season at the D1 level.
|
|
|
|
Post by bringbackcaro on Jul 25, 2022 14:12:43 GMT -5
Appearance in pL Championship OR Top 2-3 regular season finish + appearance in pL semifinals + Net positive results from spring transfer/recruiting period Some may debate whether that bar is too low, but it would indicate movement in the right direction. Also a point must of us would have expected/demanded as a minimum in year four of a coach For a team that hasn't appeared in the quarter-finals in the previous three seasons, I'm not overly optimistic for the prospects of a trip to the semis. And, less there be any confusion, at least in my case, there is a world of difference between not being optimistic at the prospects of winning and not wanting the team to win For comparison, in Year 4 at Colgate (w/out having to deal with a global pandemic), Matt Langel finished: 16-17 Overall 12-6 pL (2nd place in regular season) Lost in pL semifinals to 6th seed American In Years 1-3, his .282 pL winning percentage was less two percentage points above HCBN's current .269 clip. Both guys also took over for coaches who were sleepwalking through the motions (Kermit Davis + HOF Carmody). Did SOV have Matt Langel's poster on his wall after that Year 4 finish or did he wait until Year 7 or 8?  |
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jul 25, 2022 14:33:50 GMT -5
Interesting data, yet again, on Langel. I wonder what is a better predictor of success in year 4 of a coach's tenure at a college : (1) starting with an abysmal record in the first three seasons OR (2) not starting with an abysmal record in the coach's first three seasons?
"Both guys also took over for coaches who were sleepwalking through the motions (Kermit Davis + HOF Carmody)."
I think you've confused Emmett Davis, former head coach at Colgate, with Kermit Davis, current head coach at the University of Mississippi.
In what Hall of Fame has Bill Carmody been enshrined?
|
|
|
|
Post by Sons of Vaval on Jul 25, 2022 15:20:17 GMT -5
Some may debate whether that bar is too low, but it would indicate movement in the right direction. Also a point must of us would have expected/demanded as a minimum in year four of a coach For a team that hasn't appeared in the quarter-finals in the previous three seasons, I'm not overly optimistic for the prospects of a trip to the semis. And, less there be any confusion, at least in my case, there is a world of difference between not being optimistic at the prospects of winning and not wanting the team to win For comparison, in Year 4 at Colgate (w/out having to deal with a global pandemic), Matt Langel finished: 16-17 Overall 12-6 pL (2nd place in regular season) Lost in pL semifinals to 6th seed American In Years 1-3, his .282 pL winning percentage was less two percentage points above HCBN's current .269 clip. Both guys also took over for coaches who were sleepwalking through the motions (Kermit Davis + HOF Carmody). Did SOV have Matt Langel's poster on his wall after that Year 4 finish or did he wait until Year 7 or 8? Colgate's KenPom ranking in years 1-3 (324, 269, 184). He also was laying the foundation and had a clear plan in place to build the program (bringing in some pretty nice transfers). It was also very clear what Colgate would be doing well under Langel: put the ball in the basket. In his third year, Colgate ranked fifth in eFG% and sixth in 3PT%. Nelson's first three years: 344, 304, 349. One guy was trending upwards, the other is a bottom ten program after three years. Try again. |
|
|
|
Post by bringbackcaro on Jul 25, 2022 16:11:04 GMT -5
For comparison, in Year 4 at Colgate (w/out having to deal with a global pandemic), Matt Langel finished: 16-17 Overall 12-6 pL (2nd place in regular season) Lost in pL semifinals to 6th seed American In Years 1-3, his .282 pL winning percentage was less two percentage points above HCBN's current .269 clip. Both guys also took over for coaches who were sleepwalking through the motions (Kermit Davis + HOF Carmody). Did SOV have Matt Langel's poster on his wall after that Year 4 finish or did he wait until Year 7 or 8? Colgate's KenPom ranking in years 1-3 (324, 269, 184). He also was laying the foundation and had a clear plan in place to build the program (bringing in some pretty nice transfers). It was also very clear what Colgate would be doing well under Langel: put the ball in the basket. In his third year, Colgate ranked fifth in eFG% and sixth in 3PT%. Nelson's first three years: 344, 304, 349. One guy was trending upwards, the other is a bottom ten program after three years. Try again. Good #'s Were you and GateRaider still beating that "trending upwards" drum on the Colgate board in Years 5 & 6 when Langel's squads finished 256 & 268, respectively? |
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jul 25, 2022 16:41:40 GMT -5
I’d love to see HC finish #256 or #268
|
|
|
|
Post by bison137 on Jul 25, 2022 16:47:25 GMT -5
For comparison, in Year 4 at Colgate (w/out having to deal with a global pandemic), Matt Langel finished: 16-17 Overall 12-6 pL (2nd place in regular season) Lost in pL semifinals to 6th seed American In Years 1-3, his .282 pL winning percentage was less two percentage points above HCBN's current .269 clip. Both guys also took over for coaches who were sleepwalking through the motions (Kermit Davis + HOF Carmody). Did SOV have Matt Langel's poster on his wall after that Year 4 finish or did he wait until Year 7 or 8? Colgate's KenPom ranking in years 1-3 (324, 269, 184). He also was laying the foundation and had a clear plan in place to build the program (bringing in some pretty nice transfers). It was also very clear what Colgate would be doing well under Langel: put the ball in the basket. In his third year, Colgate ranked fifth in eFG% and sixth in 3PT%. Nelson's first three years: 344, 304, 349. One guy was trending upwards, the other is a bottom ten program after three years. Try again. The other thing to remember is that Colgate - when Langel arrived - was a much tougher place to recruit to than was HC when Nelson arrived: 1 Worse facilities 2 Much worse basketball tradition 3 Much lower budget 4 Small town in the middle of nowhere with a long brutal winter. |
|
|
|
Post by efg72 on Jul 25, 2022 16:47:58 GMT -5
IMHO it appears the PL is still in an overall down cycle, so that may help. But breaking up a losing culture is not easy. Here's a sobering, not so fun fact: outside of GG's freshman season at UNO, not one player on the roster has experienced a winning season at the D1 level. That is fine if the coach inspires, motivates, and develops-one more season to see if this is possible with Nelson we have a 500 overall record and finish in the upper half or as they say turn the page and begin a new chapter. If successful I suggest we adopt a year to year for Nelson like Brooks did with others. |
|
|
|
Post by bfoley82 on Jul 25, 2022 19:39:07 GMT -5
Interesting data, yet again, on Langel. I wonder what is a better predictor of success in year 4 of a coach's tenure at a college : (1) starting with an abysmal record in the first three seasons OR (2) not starting with an abysmal record in the coach's first three seasons? "Both guys also took over for coaches who were sleepwalking through the motions (Kermit Davis + HOF Carmody)."I think you've confused Emmett Davis, former head coach at Colgate, with Kermit Davis, current head coach at the University of Mississippi. In what Hall of Fame has Bill Carmody been enshrined? The Union HoF |
|
|
|
Post by cmo on Aug 2, 2022 7:28:45 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by rgs318 on Aug 2, 2022 7:31:06 GMT -5
46%...wow. That should be a cautionary tale regarding the portal. It seems to have, for many, become the proverbial "slippery slope." |
|
|
|
Post by thecrossisback on Aug 2, 2022 7:38:26 GMT -5
Transfer portal is a joke. Of the ones that went up how much playing time are they going to get? These recruits picked a school that recruited them for their talent. How they think they can all of a sudden jump up when they score points on a bad team is insane.
|
|
|
|
Post by longsuffering on Aug 2, 2022 10:03:01 GMT -5
The fan experience and coach evaluation process will now include checking box scores to try to determine if your transfers in are outperforming your transfers out. |
|
|
|
Post by Tom on Aug 4, 2022 7:28:48 GMT -5
I assume that percentage refers to everyone who entered the portal including graduates who have that 5th year still available and also non scholarship players
If I can keep track of all the comings and goings. . .HC had 6 players go into the portal: Luc, Johnson, Martindale, Townsel, Humphrey,and Oron. Right now it looks like Humphrey and Oron will not be playing NCAA hoops. That would be 33 percent.
Not sure if they enroll somewhere and walk on if we'll ever know
Although it sounds cruel, I'm kind of glad that so many kids aren't finding a home. Maybe they'll learn that the portal isn't a golden ticket to a better place. Sometimes a bird in the hand is in fact worth two in the bush. If Humphrey doesn't eventually find a basketball scholarship, he will have thrown away a free college degree. I know I don't have all the information that goes into that decision, but from where I sit, that seems like a big gamble that cost the kid a lot
|
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Aug 4, 2022 8:13:05 GMT -5
Maybe Humphrey returns to HC???
|
|
|
|
Post by Xmassader on Aug 4, 2022 8:15:43 GMT -5
With regard to Bubba, it is my understanding that he will go to a JC this yr. and try to land a D-1 scholarship for next yr. He will have 2-3 yrs. of eligibility left depending on whether the JC year counts and whether he gets the extra Covid yr.
|
|
|
|
Post by hchoops on Aug 4, 2022 12:26:29 GMT -5
I assume that percentage refers to everyone who entered the portal including graduates who have that 5th year still available and also non scholarship players If I can keep track of all the comings and goings. . .HC had 6 players go into the portal: Luc, Johnson, Martindale, Townsel, Humphrey,and Oron. Right now it looks like Humphrey and Oron will not be playing NCAA hoops. That would be 33 percent. Not sure if they enroll somewhere and walk on if we'll ever know Although it sounds cruel, I'm kind of glad that so many kids aren't finding a home. Maybe they'll learn that the portal isn't a golden ticket to a better place. Sometimes a bird in the hand is in fact worth two in the bush. If Humphrey doesn't eventually find a basketball scholarship, he will have thrown away a free college degree. I know I don't have all the information that goes into that decision, but from where I sit, that seems like a big gamble that cost the kid a lot Hard to count walkons in this stat |
|
|
|
Post by WCHC Sports on Aug 4, 2022 12:39:23 GMT -5
Transfer portal is a joke. Of the ones that went up how much playing time are they going to get? These recruits picked a school that recruited them for their talent. How they think they can all of a sudden jump up when they score points on a bad team is insane. Bill Simmons advises: beware good basketball stats on a bad basketball team. Said differently: somebody has to score... |
|
|
|
Post by Tom on Aug 5, 2022 6:41:10 GMT -5
I assume that percentage refers to everyone who entered the portal including graduates who have that 5th year still available and also non scholarship players If I can keep track of all the comings and goings. . .HC had 6 players go into the portal: Luc, Johnson, Martindale, Townsel, Humphrey,and Oron. Right now it looks like Humphrey and Oron will not be playing NCAA hoops. That would be 33 percent. Not sure if they enroll somewhere and walk on if we'll ever know Although it sounds cruel, I'm kind of glad that so many kids aren't finding a home. Maybe they'll learn that the portal isn't a golden ticket to a better place. Sometimes a bird in the hand is in fact worth two in the bush. If Humphrey doesn't eventually find a basketball scholarship, he will have thrown away a free college degree. I know I don't have all the information that goes into that decision, but from where I sit, that seems like a big gamble that cost the kid a lot Hard to count walkons in this stat If you take the tweet and stat at face value, I would assume that it includes everything. Walk on's still need to enter the portal |
|
|
|
Post by timholycross on Aug 5, 2022 8:42:21 GMT -5
Transfer portal is a joke. Of the ones that went up how much playing time are they going to get? These recruits picked a school that recruited them for their talent. How they think they can all of a sudden jump up when they score points on a bad team is insane. Said differently: somebody has to score... My dad used to say that 50 years ago. |
|
|
|
Post by Crosser on Aug 5, 2022 11:08:22 GMT -5
Said differently: somebody has to score... My dad used to say that 50 years ago. I said that 55 years ago when our HC intramural team was shut out in the first half of a game. Sure enough, someone eventually did. |
|
|
|
Post by efg72 on Aug 5, 2022 18:53:30 GMT -5
Classic
|
|
|
|
Post by notjuanjones on Aug 8, 2022 21:34:48 GMT -5
Obviously, HC has lost players to the transfer portal. This has greatly hampered the success of the team. Question: Have other PL teams experienced losses to the transfer portal to the same degree as has HC? If so then we are starting basically from the same place. HC would not be at a particular disadvantage. If not and HC is experiencing greater losses to the transfer portal, the question is why Possibly, no one likes a loser so guys transfer out. Losing cycle - can't establish a winning culture without wins and can't win games without a winning culture. Has this coach at least established a foundation upon which to take the necessary steps to build a winning culture? Young, inexperienced head coach at a disadvantage? Certainly loyalty to the coach has to be an issue. Round & round we go like a cat chasing its tail. Oddly, while AU's been terrible on the court the last few seasons, we've actually done "better" (relatively) in keeping more core guys around. We really got hit hard after 2016-17, when four guys left, led by Delante Jones, who'd been the PL ROTY in '16. Since then, the last true surprise to me was when Sam Iorio left after his sophomore season in 2019. That was a shock, considering he was pretty much given free reign to take any shot he wanted, and had minimal defensive demands made on him. Since then, most of our transfers have been fourth-year grad transfers (Mark Gasperini, Josh Alexander, walk-on Christian Sutton). One true rotation guy – Jacob Boonyasith, who went to UMBC – left after his sophomore season, in 2020. Jamir Harris was going to go wherever his brother wound up; that was kind of baked in when he came here. Getting two seasons out of him through his junior year of eligibility was about what we expected. I can't say with any certainty why this is. |
|
|
|
Post by longsuffering on Aug 8, 2022 21:41:35 GMT -5
One small reason might be reluctance to leave D.C. for some Podunk. American U. has a great location.
|
|
