How many games will the Holy Cross Crusaders win this season

5-8 OOC
11-7 PL
1-1 PLT
17-16 overall

I had started working on my customary analysis of the season but may not have it finished in time to accompany my wins prediction, so let me start with tthat

OOC

I come up with 6.5 wins, so I'll round that up to 7

PL

I have us with 10.95 wins, a nice improvement

So I'll go with

7-6 OOC
11-7 PL
2-1 PL Tournament

20-14

I'm guessing we would opt for the post season pay to play tournament where we'll go

1-1 Post PL



Here are some thoughts on the season that informed my W-L prediction

The logical starting point for me is to look at what the team is losing through graduation and then determine if what is replacing it (new players, added minutes to returnees, and individual player improvement) takes us backward or forward. We are returning 83% of our minutes and 85% of our points (of course, there are other factors to the game, but those are important). We lose Eric Green—and I may have been his biggest fan. Because he missed so many games at the start f the season, he only played 327 minutes, but we had a great record in those games at the end of the season when he started, played 20+ minutes, and was a defensive stalwart. Cullen Hamilton played a lot of minutes, started a lot of games in his four years, but never became the knock down shooter we hoped for, e.g. shooting .308 on threes as a senior. I think we will be able to get increased production from the players who take the available minutes.

Malachi Alexander and Robert Champion are seniors and I don’t expect them to make huge improvements on their strong junior seasons. We do need “more of the same” from them because “the same” would be very good and, importantly, we need their leadership to get the younger guys on board. I think we heard this from our senior players in this preseason: that they are real believers in Coach Carmody’s system and will get the younger players on board early. Anthony Thompson is, once again, a real “wild card”, one of several this season. He had such a fantastic freshman year (stats were unbelievable) but was hampered by injuries last two years. If he can come anywhere close to his freshman level of play, we’ll improve dramatically as a team. Matt Husek can provide help but I don’t see him playing 25+ minutes a game.

Karl Charles was the best freshman in the PL last season. We cannot expect him to improve as much as a soph as most players do as he started out at such a high level. He should improve his 3 point shooting for sure and I look for him to be a star for the next three years as an all around scorer, rebounder, ball stealer, and fantastic free throw shooter. Matt Zignorski had a good start last year and I hope we see that he spent a lot of time in the weight room and thus benefits from strength and conditioning work. I’m not saying he was out of shape—certainly not—but I think the workouts really help a lot of the younger guys as they mature physically. It will be interesting to see how much playing time he gets—I think he can contribute a lot as a long range shooter and more than compensate for what we lost with CH’s graduation. Matt shot .328 on threes last year and I think a lot of players improve in 3 point shooting as sophs. MA and RC certainly did. Pan Benzan could be the gift that keeps on giving. He was a huge scorer in high school (may not have been highest level of competition before he got to Woo Acad) but didn’t show that last year—had some injuries I think. He surprised us with a stellar showing (e.g. 3-5 FG, 8-8 FT) in the exhibition game against Assumption, but note how much time he got—a clear indicator that he was impressing the coaches in practice. Jehyve Floyd is one more wild card—an athletic talent and as Coach Carmody told us JF can do some things that other players cannot do. His free throw shooting is certainly a major concern, but I see a lot of upside. Marcellis Perkins—cannot make a projection on him.

The freshmen may not get a lot of time at the start although CLS did in the exhibition game—have to think he is a fundamentally sound player who has grasped Coach’s offense and defense. Tyrone Cohen JR was the player whose signing excited me the most as I liked his competition, his highlight reel, and as I recall, hchoops passed along that Tom Konchalski said he was a good one. That’s a great endorsement to get. Jack Stevens will get a chance to challenge for some playing time.

A quick commentary on three point shooting (I hate the three): look for significant improvement this season. I have to think that AT, who took more threes than any other player, going a woeful 43-168, will either improve his shooting percentage a lot (he was great as a freshman pre-injury) or will drastically reduce his attempts. KC was a weak .284 as a freshman but finished a creditable 8-21 in the post season. I see him having greater success this season. I expect RC will continue to launch at will and will again be in the .350 to .375 range which I’d say is decent to good. MA is a great three point shooter but we cannot expect him to improve on his tremendous .439 from last season. I’d be happy with .400, very happy. CH was a sub-optimal .308 last season, so I have to think we will hit at a much higher rate as a team than the .326 we shot last year to finish at #261 in Division-1. I look for us to move up perhaps 100 places this season.

I’m really excited about our prospects this season and hope my win prediction is surpassed before the PL tournament.

This is where I am too.

It's always interesting to check the votes of those who weigh in after the season starts (possibly after watching the SC game). Our two later votes to date were a 16-18 and a 10-12, a tiny sample but both below the clear median and mode of 19-21 wins

Or maybe raise their predicted wins? I mean, some might have thought we'd lose by 60 in the first two games. 

Seriously, though, I really thought KC would play much better than he has despite the broken finger. My impression was that JF is still very aggressive and not in the least intimidated by with Gamecocks or Orange. RChamp needs to improve his FT shooting but looks confident shooting his 3s and sometimes he looks like the only one fighting for a rebound. MA doesn't shoot FTs well unless the game is on the line. AT looked, finally, to get his 3 point shooting aim back but one game does not make a trend. I like LeSann's all around game and hope he is the long ball shooter we need but has not shown that yet in his limited playing time. The roster doesn't say how old he is but believe we had a discussion during the exhibition game that he was in his 20's and his maturity shows and probably why he is getting more court time than the other first years.

I think PB will be decent against less competitive teams than we've played so far. Ziggy needs to come alive and rise to his level of potential. 

I'll stand pat on my prediction. Does the offer to change my mind about 5-6 games into the season stand? 

We'll be fine....in the PL.

So far I have hit all of our first 5 games correctly. I see us splitting the next two - losing to Monmouth and beating Albany. I am hoping to be proven wrong on our next game and that e can take both...but I am trying to temper my unbounded HC optimism with a dose of reality.
GO CROSS!

Once someone hits 10,000 ad nauseum posts, you will regret your words.

Cheers.

Check the records, no one mentioned anything about a blue chipper
Maybe you should give a freshman on the team you so passionately root for more than a few games before you so readily dismiss him.
See Kevin Hamilton, etc.
you can doubt me, but before you doubt Tom K., please check his resume.

So do you usually evaluate freshmen you have never seen and who have yet to play ?
Why not give the player a fair chance ?

Did not CBC give TC a scholarship