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Post by hcpride on Jun 25, 2022 12:02:43 GMT -5
The real question is if the greats of the past were somehow playing in 2022 how would they fare? But in all seriousness HC is not going to lose a regular season game in 2022. Only a couple teams will play us close. You heard it here first. I’m pretty confident we’ll sweep the regular season FCS opponents. Not that every game will be ‘easy’, of course. And we’ll be the favorite in each of those games.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jun 25, 2022 12:04:46 GMT -5
Edit: was responding to post from hchoops
It does. I guess I’m making a prediction. Maybe we’ll crush Merrimack and be favored at Buffalo- that would be great. Harvard is certainly a challenge and I don’t think we’ve been favored on the road versus Harvard in some time but maybe we will be this year if we go in at 4-0.
I hope we roll through the OOC the same way we handled our PL opponents last year.
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Post by longsuffering on Jun 25, 2022 13:32:47 GMT -5
It's unlikely we will be favored against Buffalo no matter the early season records. After that it depends on the records. If odds for FCS will be available before the start of the season it would be hard to be favored against Harvard based on last year's results.
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Post by kaftan12 on Jun 25, 2022 13:58:03 GMT -5
Lot of road games front of schedule is a challenge even for the best teams. 3-2 will be a good start. Passing game was strong in the spring game and that will be the biggest factor in controlling the ball in the first two games. If we can throw the ball consistently down field this team will be unbeatable during regular season.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jun 25, 2022 22:29:34 GMT -5
HC apparently has digitized the October 8, 1960 loss to then #1 Syracuse at Fitton Field. It may be the game film. Syracuse had Ernie Davis, Art Baker, and John Mackey as RBs. Davis was picked number 4 in the draft, but died before playing. Walt Sweeney was also on that team. (This was the game when the half-time score was announced at Yankee Stadium during a World Series game, there was a collective gasp from the crowd.) The film apparently shows a slower game, some of which may be due to the condition of the field, and some of which may be due to the equipment worn. And the strength and conditioning programs of today are light years ahead of what was offered decades ago. Perennial All pro Tight end John Mackey was a running back in college ? Surprising That surprised me as well but there were many guys who starred at one position in college and another in the pros.. Lance Alwirth, one of the all-time great wide receivers, comes to mind, He was a running back at Arkansas although I think he must have lined up at WR occasionally based on his yards per reception. It looks like Mackey played RB as a sophomore but he had Ernie Davis and others ahead of him and was 6th in yards gained. As a junior it looks like he was a WR only and he led the team in receiving yards with 321. As a senior he played some RB but Jim Nance was the top RB and Mackey led the team in receiving yards with just 131 for the season. NFL scouts saw some untapped talent beyond the slim stats (259 career rushing yards and 481career receiving yards) as he was drafted in the second round and went on to that HOF career with the Colts before finishing up with San Diego for his last season. Showing the difference in size between today's players and those of "yesteryear", as we have been discussing on this forum, he is listed at 6-2, 224. I'd guess NFL tight ends now must average 6-6 & 260
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Post by longsuffering on Jun 26, 2022 6:24:36 GMT -5
Jim Nance 1966 AFL MVP.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Jun 27, 2022 10:28:46 GMT -5
The real question is if the greats of the past were somehow playing in 2022 how would they fare? But in all seriousness HC is not going to lose a regular season game in 2022. Only a couple teams will play us close. You heard it here first. I like the swagger/confidence. I would think the Over/Under Vegas odds for wins all things considered would be 8.5 or 9. Joe is the hard over! When I consider a likely a team’s likely record, I start with the ceiling/floor potential of the team and each opponent. Let’s presume that we will likely get most opponents “A” game this year considering the PL target on our back and increasing FCS notoriety. Therefore, when I look at our team, what type of game will we have to play to win (what we can control) I see it this way as of today: Will take our “A” game to win: Buffalo, Harvard B+/A- game: Yale, Fordham, Bryant Solid B: Merrimack, Colgate B-: Lehigh I doubt we will see many games where we play our “A” game and other capable teams don’t show up (Monmouth, Colgate last season) and hopefully there are none where the opposite is true and we lay an egg and get the opponents best (2021 Merrimack, Harvard) The delta of the 2022 HC squad is 10-1 to 7-4 IMO. It’s just so hard to run the table week in and out for 11 games without at least one team getting the best of you that given Saturday.
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Post by hc87 on Jun 27, 2022 11:00:25 GMT -5
I think we should be very good this Fall, that being said, I'm starting to get '77-'78 hoop vibes of ovah expectations. That team received a lot of preseason hoopla, as much as being ranked #9 in the Sports Illustrated preseason poll.
Ches no doubt will temper any overall attitude of ovah-confidence which is good.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Jun 27, 2022 11:05:35 GMT -5
I think an Over/Under of 8.5/9 wins for a 9-2 (regular season) team returning 18 of 22 starters and most key reserves is very measured and realistic albeit with a modestly harder schedule. I would agree with you if everyone was in Joe’s camp and saying 11-0 likely and AT WORST 9-2 but I don’t think that’s were most fans really are…if they had to put $$ on it.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jun 27, 2022 11:21:31 GMT -5
I like to set for each game a % chance of winning, never lower than 5% or higher than95%. Then add up those percentages and you have your expected wins for the regular season. Multiply them and you get your chances of the proverbial “running the table”.
Let’s illustrate with a basketball example-shooting free throws. Instead of 11 football games by HC we’d have 11 free throws by Steph Curry. The over/under would be 10 free throws made but he’d be just over 40% to make all 11.
Of course Steph Curry has the same odds of making each shot while HC’s percentage chance of winning varies by game with the lowest being at Buffalo and highest versus Bucknell at Polar Park
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Post by efg72 on Jun 27, 2022 11:28:14 GMT -5
Too early to predict until we get to the last week of camp, but if i had to decide today I am going with 8-3 and getting to the quarterfinals
To run the table takes consistent execution with results, staying free of key injuries, a great plus/minus on turnovers, and a majority of the breaks
10-1 means you fall short in one of those areas
9-2 is what i think will happen, but taking 8-3 because most teams slip up at least once during the season and we will be a targeted opponent all season
In the end another PL title, tournament bid, and getting to the round of eight will be well received
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Post by longsuffering on Jun 27, 2022 11:47:12 GMT -5
I like to set for each game a % chance of winning, never lower than 5% or higher than95%. Then add up those percentages and you have your expected wins for the regular season. Multiply them and you get your chances of the proverbial “running the table”. Let’s illustrate with a basketball example-shooting free throws. Instead of 11 football games by HC we’d have 11 free throws by Steph Curry. The over/under would be 10 free throws made but he’d be just over 40% to make all 11. Of course Steph Curry has the same odds of making each shot while HC’s percentage chance of winning varies by game with the lowest being at Buffalo and highest versus Bucknell at Polar Park Your "precision of thought, economy of expression" is excellent. Before long people will be able to poke their phone and bet on each Steph Curry free throw, factoring in whether he has made six in a row or missed two out of three, his body language, etc.
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Post by sader1970 on Jun 27, 2022 12:11:59 GMT -5
There's a reason for the expression "any given Sunday" - Saturdays in our case - too many variables. Talent, strength, speed and coaching are obviously the primary drivers but injuries, sometimes flukey ones that no one can predict, or an unlucky bounce of the ball or a gust of wind can't be predicted. We all know the best team "on paper" sometimes just doesn't win. I admire the effort to make a season prediction look scientific or mathematical but I'll go with my dart throwing and coin tossing or Ouiji board.
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Post by DFW HOYA on Jun 27, 2022 18:10:56 GMT -5
Per Massey ratings (statistics only), it's a 9-2 season.
at Merrimack 84% at Buffalo 15% Yale 55% at Colgate 63% at Harvard 36% Bucknell at Polar Park: 89% at Lafayette: 67% Fordham: 68% Lehigh: 84% Bryant : 78% at Georgetown: 81%
The rest of the PL: Fordham 6-5 Colgate 5-6 Lafayette 4-7 Lehigh 2-9 Georgetown 2-9 Bucknell 1-10
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Post by HC92 on Jun 27, 2022 19:20:40 GMT -5
Fordham should be better than 6-5 but Wagner, Monmouth, Albany, Ohio, Stony Brook does make for a tough OOC. They will be battle tested by the time we see them.
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Post by longsuffering on Jun 27, 2022 21:18:09 GMT -5
Bryant and Merrimack have the flexibility to load up on fifth year talent. Depending on how skilled their coaching staff has become at this, they could have strengths that Massey doesn't measure.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Jun 28, 2022 6:56:31 GMT -5
Agreed, I think our odds against both Merrimack and Bryant are lower than what Massey has above. (As of today I would say ~65% at Merrimack and ~53% v Bryant). I expect Bryant to be very similar to the talent level we saw against Sacred Heart and maybe even modestly better after another year and upgrade in conference/trajectory on facilities etc.
FWIW, we will have to wait for final reports from fall camp and pre-season depth chart to make final predications. I had our O/W in 2021 at 8 wins. I had us going 8-3. 2-3 against UCONN, Yale, Monmouth Harvard, Fordham and we went 4-1 but didn’t know enough about Merrimack (especially their QB transfer from LA Tech to see that coming…like many of us.)
I really think 8.5 wins as we sit here today is a prudent number. Any preliminary takes? Efg72 said 8-3 with another conference title which means all the losses are OOC or we win a tie breaker in the PL.
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Post by dharry13 on Jun 28, 2022 7:13:19 GMT -5
I think 8.5 is spot on. Still think with Buffalo, Harvard, Yale, Bryant - there is a chance HC goes 2-2 there. Hopeful they get nice payback against Merrimack. To me the swing game would be Fordham. They have a lot of talent back. I expect HC to win, but it won't be easy.
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Post by efg72 on Jun 28, 2022 7:29:20 GMT -5
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jun 28, 2022 7:36:33 GMT -5
I’ll start the customary wins predictions poll in August
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Post by alum on Jun 28, 2022 8:27:37 GMT -5
The only team to go undefeated in the regular season in FCS last year was Sam Houston State, so we ought not be disappointed if we pick up a loss or two. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_NCAA_Division_I_FCS_football_seasonThat said, I do expect to pick the Crusaders each and every week during the regular season. It is hard to imagine right now that there will be games in which we will not be competitive. At 9-2 I will be satisfied but a little disappointed.
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Post by rgs318 on Jun 28, 2022 8:36:32 GMT -5
I am afraid that is little more than great bulletin board material for the Fordham Rams.
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Post by football44 on Jun 28, 2022 8:46:27 GMT -5
I am afraid that is little more than great bulletin board material for the Fordham Rams. rgs318 no doubt but don't think for a minute that Coach Chesney is reminding our guys about the target. As a matter of fact on the latest New England Pod Cast he mentioned the target issue. The players I've spoken with realize that every game this year is the other teams playoff game against HC. Everyone is going to want to dethrone the champ. This is why the team is working out, lifting weights right now in June as a "TEAM".
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Post by hcpride on Jun 28, 2022 11:53:47 GMT -5
I suspect all our returnees/coaches think there is some unfinished business on the table (and I don’t mean beating Merrimack or winning the PL title).
To me, unfinished work is sweeping our FCS opponents (I think we are ranked above each of our FCS opponents in the various preseason rankings so this appears quite doable) and advancing deeper in the playoffs.
(I also agree that this year, like the past few years, the PL teams will be looking to dethrone the champ. I also think we’ve widened the talent gap with them. )
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Post by midwestsader05 on Jun 30, 2022 12:46:11 GMT -5
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