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Post by bringbackcaro on Mar 2, 2022 20:11:30 GMT -5
So much talent with these recruits and we are ten from the bottom in all of Division 1. So he’s a good recruiter and just a terrible coach? Tough day for you on the board, Caro. Take a shift off. Go looooong 58% of respondents to the poll question disagree with you.
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Post by timholycross on Mar 2, 2022 20:12:17 GMT -5
Well, Matt McCall's available.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Mar 2, 2022 20:16:31 GMT -5
BBC—— why do I waste my time with you? You simply respond by offering new numbers and completely misinterpreting them. You just don’t believe in facts, I guess; you have developed your narrative and won’t deviate from it no matter how foolish you look. Comparing margin of victory or defeat in two different years means nothing if the schedules are significantly different. My guess is that deep down you know that but think you can snow people with your nonsense. In Carmody’s last season HC’s strength of schedule was #247 overall in D-1 and #228 non-conference . For Nelson this past season it was #342 overall and #290 non-conference. If you cannot deduce that Nelson faced a much easier schedule in conference than Carmody did you are hopeless. You didn’t really pay attention to my post and had already made up your mind, I see. Margin of victory using the KenPom predictive formula is a simple proxy for how much better one team is than another. By comparing the predicted results of the games in the two year sample (HC 21-22 vs pL 21-22 and HC 21-22 vs pL 18-19), it gives some insight into what difference it would have made for the current HC team in either set of conference games. The data says that it wouldn’t have made a difference. But I guess it’s just par for the course to not even consider any information that may run contrary to the conclusion that you came to before ever giving HCBN a chance.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Mar 2, 2022 20:31:04 GMT -5
Well it is clear that margin of victory is yet another factor that is beyond your comprehension. Let’s look at track to illustrate. With your logic and analytical methodology you’d conclude that a runner who finished 5 yards behind the winner in a Class C high school 100 meter sprint was just as fast as a runner who finished 5 yards behind the winner in a NCAA championship 100 meter race. After all there was the same margin, right?
You have to account for the level of competition, the difficulty of the schedule. You have failed to take that into account despite repeated efforts to help you.
I’ll bow out now as we are no doubt boring other posters. Looking forward to your next amusing offering!
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Post by crusader1970 on Mar 2, 2022 20:38:29 GMT -5
To BBC: I understand that Coach Mike Brennan heard about this poll on CROSSPORTS and will register soon so that he can get his vote recorded. He is going to be the first vote for the third option: He's Done A Great Job - Extend His Contract Now.
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Post by dharry13 on Mar 2, 2022 20:50:02 GMT -5
I whole heartedly agree with SOV. Again there is nothing I’ve seen since he’s been here that tells me he can Coach at this level. Honestly - nothing.
He’s probably a really good guy too and I don’t like seeing people lose their jobs. But it’s part of choosing that occupation.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Mar 2, 2022 20:53:25 GMT -5
Well it is clear that margin of victory is yet another factor that is beyond your comprehension. Let’s look at track to illustrate. With your logic and analytical methodology you’d conclude that a runner who finished 5 yards behind the winner in a Class C high school 100 meter sprint was just as fast as a runner who finished 5 yards behind the winner in a NCAA championship 100 meter race. After all there was the same margin, right? You have to account for the level of competition, the difficulty of the schedule. You have failed to take that into account despite repeated efforts to help you. I’ll bow out now as we are no doubt boring other posters. Looking forward to your next amusing offering! Huh? KenPom predicted score/margin of victory compares two teams offensive and defensive efficiency, adjusts for tempo, and provides a predicted final score for each team based on that opponent. If Team A is predicted to lose to Team B by 9 and Team A is predicted to lost to Team C by 8.5, the conclusion would be that Team B and Team C are interchangeable and will produce the same results in games against Team A. Your theory was that the pL was much stronger in 2018-19 and would have significantly impacted results when comparing the HC teams in 18-19 and 21-22 against their respective opponents. However, the data actually shows that it wouldn't have made a difference, because while you seem to think there is a big difference between the 250th, 280th, 310th, and 340th best teams in the country, the reality is that all the teams stink and results are not going to change much, if at all.
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Post by Tom on Mar 2, 2022 21:05:49 GMT -5
Margin of victory using the KenPom predictive formula is a simple proxy for how much better one team is than another. By comparing the predicted results of the games in the two year sample (HC 21-22 vs pL 21-22 and HC 21-22 vs pL 18-19), it gives some insight into what difference it would have made for the current HC team in either set of conference games. The data says that it wouldn’t have made a difference. Unless I'm sitting in a bar explaining why the 86 Celtics were better than the 16 Warriors and 96 Bulls, it's difficult to say how a team would do in a different year. That being said, if this formula says the 2022 Crusaders would have done no worse had they played the 2019 schedule, what does it say about the inverse? What would 2019 squad have done with this year's schedule?
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Post by hc17 on Mar 2, 2022 21:18:31 GMT -5
If there is a decision to be made, I'd imagine it would happen within the next few days. If I recall correctly, Milan was let go in early March.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Mar 2, 2022 21:21:14 GMT -5
Margin of victory using the KenPom predictive formula is a simple proxy for how much better one team is than another. By comparing the predicted results of the games in the two year sample (HC 21-22 vs pL 21-22 and HC 21-22 vs pL 18-19), it gives some insight into what difference it would have made for the current HC team in either set of conference games. The data says that it wouldn’t have made a difference. Unless I'm sitting in a bar explaining why the 86 Celtics were better than the 16 Warriors and 96 Bulls, it's difficult to say how a team would do in a different year. That being said, if this formula says the 2022 Crusaders would have done no worse had they played the 2019 schedule, what does it say about the inverse? What would 2019 squad have done with this year's schedule? Consider this: the 2019 squad, per Pomeroy, was rated 101.2 for offensive efficiency (the higher the better) and 108.0 for defense (the lower the better).. Our current team is rated 92.1 for offense and 112.2 for defense. Per 100 possessions in a game versus the same opponent (I believe I am interpreting this correctly) the 2019 team would score 9.1 points more than the current team and give up 4.2 fewer points. Just compare the shooting percentages (HC's and the opponents) from the two seasons: the difference is stark. There are other factors, of course, but that tells us so much.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Mar 2, 2022 21:26:26 GMT -5
Margin of victory using the KenPom predictive formula is a simple proxy for how much better one team is than another. By comparing the predicted results of the games in the two year sample (HC 21-22 vs pL 21-22 and HC 21-22 vs pL 18-19), it gives some insight into what difference it would have made for the current HC team in either set of conference games. The data says that it wouldn’t have made a difference. Unless I'm sitting in a bar explaining why the 86 Celtics were better than the 16 Warriors and 96 Bulls, it's difficult to say how a team would do in a different year. That being said, if this formula says the 2022 Crusaders would have done no worse had they played the 2019 schedule, what does it say about the inverse? What would 2019 squad have done with this year's schedule? Good question -- virtually the exact same. 2022 Opponent / Predicted Margin vs 21-11 HC / vs 18-19 HC Colgate / 18.3 / 18.6 (+0.3) Navy / 9.9 / 9.8 (-0.1) BU / 9.2 / 8.9 (-0.3) Loyola / 6.4 / 6.0 (-0.4) Army / 5.7 / 5.2 (-0.5) Lehu / 7.2 / 6.8 (-0.4) LaughU / 2.3 / 1.5 (-0.8) AU / 0.7 / -0.1 (-0.8) Bucknell / -1.0 / -2.0 (-1) So basically half a point better vs the top 2/3rd's and around a point better vs the bottom 3rd. In summary, this year's team was very similar to the 18-19 team, returns exponentially more production, and was the 3rd year for Nelson versus the 4th year for Carmody (who was going to be coming back for a 5th year), and everyone wants to chop Nelson's head off*. *Well, not really everyone, as these poll results have been very encouraging that the entire HC fan base haven't completely lost their minds like the vocal mob has.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Mar 2, 2022 21:32:45 GMT -5
If there is a decision to be made, I'd imagine it would happen within the next few days. If I recall correctly, Milan was let go in early March. I think Milan was let go either on the bus ride or the morning after the loss to Bucknell in the PLT.
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Post by lou on Mar 2, 2022 22:33:14 GMT -5
If there is a decision to be made, I'd imagine it would happen within the next few days. If I recall correctly, Milan was let go in early March. Let's not change the momentum for a team that actually wins. If he's making a change he can wait a few weeks
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Mar 2, 2022 22:59:29 GMT -5
If there is a decision to be made, I'd imagine it would happen within the next few days. If I recall correctly, Milan was let go in early March. I think Milan was let go either on the bus ride or the morning after the loss to Bucknell in the PLT. He was supposedly called in for an 8am meeting with Pine after arriving back to Worcester from Lewisburg at 4am. And was fired in that meeting. That was the Malcolm Miller 38 point game, the last of his college career. We lost in OT as the 8 seed playing the #1. The following year we got the same matchup as the #9 seed...went to 2OT and the rest was history.
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Post by longsuffering on Mar 2, 2022 23:07:16 GMT -5
I think Milan was let go either on the bus ride or the morning after the loss to Bucknell in the PLT. He was supposedly called in for an 8am meeting with Pine after arriving back to Worcester from Lewisburg at 4am. And was fired in that meeting. That was the Malcolm Miller 38 point game, the last of his college career. We lost in OT as the 8 seed playing the #1. The following year we got the same matchup as the #9 seed...went to 2OT and the rest was history. When Pine was done with a coach (Brown, Gilmore) he was really done. What was the rush, as Carmody had been a free agent for a year.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Mar 3, 2022 0:37:42 GMT -5
Isn't the rush so you can get the new guy started on recruiting and on building a staff?
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Post by longsuffering on Mar 3, 2022 2:32:41 GMT -5
Yes. But we still could have snared Carmody if Milan was allowed eight hours of sleep.
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Post by hc87 on Mar 3, 2022 3:14:22 GMT -5
If we were truly serious about hoop, Pitino would have been hired at Holy Cross.
Nelson will last another year, and then we'll get another schmuck.
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Post by timholycross on Mar 3, 2022 4:22:13 GMT -5
If there is a decision to be made, I'd imagine it would happen within the next few days. If I recall correctly, Milan was let go in early March. I'd say if they did it, it would be today (not saying they are). Didn't want to spoil the thunder of the big women's game and before the campus empties out for Spring Break. When they dumped Milan it was the day of a women's home semifinal game and some people pointed to that as a possible reason the ladies laid an egg that day.
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Post by joe on Mar 3, 2022 8:01:56 GMT -5
If we were truly serious about hoop, Pitino would have been hired at Holy Cross. Nelson will last another year, and then we'll get another schmuck. Succinct, logical, and based on ample historical data.
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Post by rgs318 on Mar 3, 2022 8:23:48 GMT -5
If we were truly serious about hoop, Pitino would have been hired at Holy Cross. Nelson will last another year, and then we'll get another schmuck. Succinct, logical, and based on ample historical data. All true and, IMO, on a "win at any cost" attitude that would not serve Holy Cross well.
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Post by trimster on Mar 3, 2022 8:33:42 GMT -5
So much talent with these recruits and we are ten from the bottom in all of Division 1. So he’s a good recruiter and just a terrible coach? Tough day for you on the board, Caro. Take a shift off. Go looooong 58% of respondents to the poll question disagree with you. I voted among the 58% with almost no conviction to do so and my guess is there are others who feel the same way. My not so strong reasons for voting no we’re the squad basically had ten frosh on it and firing Nelson now would add to the perception HC churns thru men’s basketball coaches at a rapid pace.
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Post by alum on Mar 3, 2022 8:56:33 GMT -5
I voted to keep BN, but not without reservations. I do think he has demonstrated that he knows how to recruit. RJJ, KL, and GG were all good gets. It would also appear that the kids did not quit on him. and that matters to me. I guess if several guys go into the portal in the next week, I might view my decision as wrong.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Mar 3, 2022 9:00:57 GMT -5
I voted among the 58% with almost no conviction to do so and my guess is there are others who feel the same way. My not so strong reasons for voting no we’re the squad basically had ten frosh on it and firing Nelson now would add to the perception HC churns thru men’s basketball coaches at a rapid pace. Totally agree. Holy Cross isn't the "Cradle of Coaches," but shouldn't become the "Boot Hill of Coaches," either. That said, I would shed no tears if the AD decides to go in another direction now.
As a practical matter, I don't get the sense that Hughes is ready to do it - he's hit his home run for the year, can find a justification for retention in the "improvement" shown in PL play over the last three years, and then there's the money . . .
If there are multiple players showing up in the portal in the next month or so, then would favor pulling the plug now. Otherwise, Nelson gets another year, with very high expectations for success - doesn't meet them, he gets the . . . boot.
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Post by mm67 on Mar 3, 2022 9:45:01 GMT -5
An unpopular view ---- Hasn't HC been the graveyard of coaches since Kearney? Which quality coach would take a job at HC? The pay is not unusually high. There are other healthier programs which could match or surpass any salary HC could offer. We are deluding ourselves if we believe HC is a sleeping giant. Sure, Blaney who rescued the program & Willard produced nice teams. But those teams were not giants.HC has most truly not been a giant since Roy Leenig's teams in the 50's. In today's bb climate HC would be lucky to be ranked in the top 100. And, with a top 100 rank many stakeholders would be screaming for the coach's head. How many here would take the job with the expectations and without the job security or support? Peace.
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