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Post by Sons of Vaval on Mar 2, 2022 10:37:51 GMT -5
We are #349 out of 358. Even if Nelson is given a pass on the first two years, this is not an improvement. We lost 6 of our last 7, including a season ending home loss to the last place team in a game where Nelson made no adjustments after AU beat us the same way for the third time. There is no improvement here. To say there is no improvement in the program is just plain wrong. 1) We won 5 of 6 in Jan/Feb (or 6 of 9), and may have been playing our best basketball outside of the Carmody pLT 1-3-1 fluke in over a decade. Have another. Maybe you weren't following the program in 2018 (another sabbatical?), but going 9-4 in the OOC with wins over Stony Brook, Siena (2x), UMass and Iona is better than wins over a few schools ranked 290+.
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Post by football44 on Mar 2, 2022 10:45:37 GMT -5
I first heard the term years ago when I used to attend the CAA tournament with my dad in Richmond in the late 90's and early 00's. During that stretch, the CAA had 9 teams and the bottom two would play in the "Friday night pillow-fight" as fans casually called it. Then Saturday would be the quarters, Sunday the semis and Monday the championship. Growing up a William & Mary fan during that time, we were bounced in the quarters basically every single year. CAA back then was: UNC Wilmington, Richmond, VCU, ODU, W&M, American, East Carolina, George Mason, James Madison They can have American back whenever they'd like to - and not just because of this year's results. I've never seen AU as a fit with the original PL make-up, and feel that the PL benefits AU's image a lot more than the converse. As I've said on the football board American U. is another example of how wayward the PL is in my opinion. In when it suits your interest out when it doesn't.
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Post by sader81 on Mar 2, 2022 10:50:44 GMT -5
We are #349 out of 358. Even if Nelson is given a pass on the first two years, this is not an improvement. We lost 6 of our last 7, including a season ending home loss to the last place team in a game where Nelson made no adjustments after AU beat us the same way for the third time. There is no improvement here. Well stated. Could not agree more.
Based on what we have seen, to think that magically Nelson is going to take this group and contend for a PL Championship is just not logical. There is absolutely nothing there to expect that.
Bringing him back for another year is just putting off the inevitable.
This is NOT the coach who will breathe life and enthusiasm back into the HC program.
He was a bad fit from the day he walked on campus.
IMO it may be a difficult conversation but it is time for our new AD to step up and get this thing going in the right direction NOW....not after another disappointing year.
Kit did a great job extending Chesney. It's now time for him to make another decisive move.
Basically agree with both of you; however, there is one wild card that everyone here is missing: Where are the players in all of this? Will they run through a wall for BN? Or will they be happy to see him depart. Our hope for greener pastures is depends a lot on who returns and who is happy here. That's something that an AD has to be in tune with, and something that, quite frankly, none of us know.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Mar 2, 2022 10:57:02 GMT -5
To say we are playing our best basketball in over a decade is passing an exceedingly low bar. Overall, HC had another dreadful season and I have little optimism for anything over .500 next season. I think you are really overrating the talent level of this roster and I see little evidence our coach has the ability to make the whole greater than the sum of the parts. To end the season with a performance eerily similar to the Quinnipiac game 4 months ago in which we were backdoored to death, was a huge disappointment. The cherry on top of the sundae came at the end of first half interview where BN threw his players under the bus with some of the few words he has spoken to the media in three years. Between that, the Senior Day fiasco of not starting DJ Hart and allowing Colgate to dribble out clock uncontested, it was a tough week for CBN. Hopefully he learned from it. While I am certainly more optimistic about the talent than most around here, I don't really know how you could take any roster that we've had over the last 10 years and say it's better than or has more potential than what we have now. IMO people are really discounting the impact that COVID had on the development of such a young roster -- COVID has impacted their high school careers, access to training, entry to HC, offseason training, losing half of the Soph class's Froshman season, etc. etc. PL players are never finished products in their Frosh & Soph years, and that is particularly the case with the type of headwind these guys have had to face. "Sure things"- Gates: All-PL player - Luc: ROY, all-PL ceiling - RJJ: starting pL point guard, team leader (needs to get healthy) Potential- Montgomery: all-PL ceiling (avg 12 pts & 4.5 rebs and shot 46.2% from 3 during an 8-game stretch in pL play), in addition to being a very strong defender. He has the potential to be a 15-16 & 6 guy and lock down defender, who can defend all guard positions - Louth: starting pL big -- in the COVID impact mentioned above, he may have been most impacted (arrived at HC in January of Frosh year, couldn't do anything in Canada prior to that). The end of this season was essentially the start of his Soph year in "normal" circumstances. - Kenny: all-pL ceiling. I have heard comparisons to Jehyve Floyd in terms of basketball development timing (started playing the game later), wingspan, and shot-blocking ability. That's a pretty high ceiling, but the potential is certainly there in Kenny, who brings a combination of athleticism and physicality that isn't common in the pL That is the core going forward, and the key is going to be other guys stepping up:- Batchelder: I am excited to see what he can do and if he can fill a much provided some much needed strong perimeter shooting to space out the floor - Humphrey: Sort of an enigma this year -- I see a lot of potential in him, but his minutes are extremely inconsistent, which leads me to believe something isn't going right in practice. If he can come into his own in his Junior & Senior seasons, that would be a huge boost - Martindale: Was battling injuries for at least part of the year, but has show some flashes. If he could even just be a spot-up 3-point specialist, that would be a helpful addition - Dorsey: Great defender, but needs to add to his offensive game. At the bare minimum he is a solid pL contributor and great culture piece of the program on the defensive end. - Rabinovich: will he ever be healthy? - Lewis: Bit of a lottery ticket with a high ceiling and low floor While this certainly ins't the 04-05 roster with Hamilton, Simmons, Thomas, Clifford, and Doherty, after a decade poor recruiting and/or roster management, we finally have enough pieces in place where we can have serious potential for a strong run over multiple years.
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Post by crusader1970 on Mar 2, 2022 10:58:55 GMT -5
304 (3-29) 344 (5-11) 349(as of this AM) (7[9]-22) Pomeroy rankings and records from ‘20-‘22 Improvement ? Don't confuse BBC with the facts.
He really believes we are on our way to compete for a PL title next year.
These rankings confirm what we all know.
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Post by hchoops on Mar 2, 2022 10:59:04 GMT -5
Reply to post below
If the coach is a failure, you do not make the decision of whether to retain him based on what the players think. Who may or may not leave is irrelevant. Either he can win at HC or not. These are the players he has recruited.
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Post by hchoops on Mar 2, 2022 11:01:33 GMT -5
Well stated. Could not agree more.
Based on what we have seen, to think that magically Nelson is going to take this group and contend for a PL Championship is just not logical. There is absolutely nothing there to expect that.
Bringing him back for another year is just putting off the inevitable.
This is NOT the coach who will breathe life and enthusiasm back into the HC program.
He was a bad fit from the day he walked on campus.
IMO it may be a difficult conversation but it is time for our new AD to step up and get this thing going in the right direction NOW....not after another disappointing year.
Kit did a great job extending Chesney. It's now time for him to make another decisive move.
Basically agree with both of you; however, there is one wild card that everyone here is missing: Where are the players in all of this? Will they run through a wall for BN? Or will they be happy to see him depart. Our hope for greener pastures is depends a lot on who returns and who is happy here. That's something that an AD has to be in tune with, and something that, quite frankly, none of us know.
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hc99
Crusader Century Club
Posts: 117
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Post by hc99 on Mar 2, 2022 11:09:41 GMT -5
I think they should move from Nelson. Last night's game was extremely disappointing and frustrating and I don't think Nelson is the guy. That being said, I think he will get one more year. As a previous post mentioned, give the new AD some time to assess the program and assemble potential replacement candidates and make a solid hire, not a rushed one.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Mar 2, 2022 11:18:22 GMT -5
304 (3-29) 344 (5-11) 349(as of this AM) (7[9]-22) Pomeroy rankings and records from ‘20-‘22 Improvement ? 1) Your numbers were wrong 2) Why didn't you go back into pL player the year before Nelson arrived to help set the baseline? It's just so disingenuous to ignore all other factors around the program before and during HCBN's time. PL Records: CARMODY15-16: 5-1316-17: 9-917-18: 8-1018-19: 6-12NELSON19-20: 2-1620-21: 5-1121-22: 7-11We had a better record in the pL this year than Carmody's final year, which lost its three best players before Nelson arrived. At MIMUMUM, we will improve on Carmody's best pL regular season record by 2 games next year (on paper, 11-7 would be a serious disappointment for me). Let's stop pretending Brett Nelson stepped into the program than Sean Kearney inherited from RW 12 years ago (or however many years its been since this nightmare started).
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Post by sader81 on Mar 2, 2022 11:19:38 GMT -5
Reply to post below If the coach is a failure, you do not make the decision of whether to retain him based on what the players think. Who may or may not leave is irrelevant. Either he can win at HC or not. These are the players he has recruited. HC is a young team with promise. If the AD has already concluded that he is a failure, end of story. If not, the players thinking is relevant. I went through a coaching staff being fired - one of the most remarkable times of my life (which is another story.) The players had a large role in whether the coach was to be relieved or was to stay. The AD at the time didn't ask, he knew the situation, and made the right call. If the coach goes and the team follows, I hope we're all still around for the next rebuild.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Mar 2, 2022 11:25:34 GMT -5
Former ADMB declared that men's hoops was the top sport at HC, followed by football. ADMB has moved on. And I strongly suspect ADMB's hierarchy of sports has moved on with him.
Listening to Kit on a very recent webinar for rowing, he said two of his top three priorities were more scollies and increasing the pay of head coaches. No way is the school going to approve a buy-out of Nelson's contract, because that would draw monies away from increasing head coaches' salaries. Now if Crossporters join with rich alums and put up the $$$ to buy-out the contract, that's a different matter.
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Post by Ray on Mar 2, 2022 11:35:05 GMT -5
Former ADMB declared that men's hoops was the top sport at HC, followed by football. ADMB has moved on. And I strongly suspect ADMB's hierarchy of sports has moved on with him. Listening to Kit on a very recent webinar for rowing, he said two of his top three priorities were more scollies and increasing the pay of head coaches. No way is the school going to approve a buy-out of Nelson's contract, because that would draw monies away from increasing head coaches' salaries. Now if Crossporters join with rich alums and put up the $$$ to buy-out the contract, that's a different matter. You think ADMB set that hierarchy in a vacuum? No way.
I disagree that if Kit put forth a case for buying out Nelson's contract, that it would not be approved. If anything, the fact that the football program has found success just puts more of a spotlight on what a mess the basketball program has been for a decade-plus now, rather than suggesting we're now spending so much on football that we can't afford to buy out Nelson.
For that matter, is it at all clear what the length of Nelson's contract is? I've never been clear on whether he signed a four- or five-year deal back in July 2019.
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Post by purple1 on Mar 2, 2022 12:10:01 GMT -5
Time to move on.....unable to get players into proper defensive positioning for backdoor cuts. Offense with players away from the glass with too many shots w/o a chance for a rebound. HCBN style is not conducive to PL play. I wonder what really is happening in the lockeroom ?
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Post by Tom on Mar 2, 2022 12:16:23 GMT -5
We are #349 out of 358. Even if Nelson is given a pass on the first two years, this is not an improvement. We lost 6 of our last 7, including a season ending home loss to the last place team in a game where Nelson made no adjustments after AU beat us the same way for the third time. There is no improvement here. To say there is no improvement in the program is just plain wrong. 1) We won 5 of 6 in Jan/Feb (or 6 of 9), and may have been playing our best basketball outside of the Carmody pLT 1-3-1 fluke in over a decade. 2) The roster is in exponentially better shape than what Nelson inherited. In July 2019, Nelson inherited absolutely nothing in the Frosh and Soph classes -- two guys in Lowder & Pridgen who had a 0.0% chance of making it anywhere near 4 years at HC, and other guys who weren't D1 players, 0 Senior contributors, and a Junior class that was a mess. There was no positional balance, no athleticism, no thought behind how the pieces fit together -- just a total disaster. Contrast that with where we are today -- returning a two-time all pL player, pL ROY, a major shift towards positional balance (assuming Rabinovich is ever healthy), exponentially more athleticism, competing with legit D1 programs for recruits, etc. etc. Certainly fair to say that the program may not be improving as quickly as you'd like, but saying that there has been no improvement from the disaster that Carmody left behind is just such a disingenuous take. I agree that Lowder and Pridgen were likely not destined to graduate from HC. The fact that neither is at the school to which they transferred supports that theory. Not sure if you were going for hyperbole, but of the four remaining guys in those two classes, two went to other D-I programs, so someone besides Coach Carmody thought they were D-I players I'm not sure why the junior class would be labeled a mess. Is it because Copeland was injured? More hyperbole? I know thtat Niego didn't land in D-I, but the group of Butler/Faw/Niego was hardly a mess
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Mar 2, 2022 12:27:30 GMT -5
I always admit that I am no basketball expert. A few on this board are and they add so much to our debates. With that caveat stated, I will put myself in the camp that advocates for making a coaching change now. I believe that CBN has demonstrated that he is not a very good X's & O's coach. As others have suggested, it seems that he is a stubborn man, set in his ways: e.g. we do a man-to-man defense and will not try a zone-period. I think he may have a big problem in coaching players who are not as skilled as he was, as in "why can't these guys do this"? If he's been in basketball "at the highest level", as his PR flack likes to tell us, for 20 years and doesn't yet comprehend how to handle the X's and O's (clock management, offense and defense installation, in-game adjustments, etc) what makes us think he'll be adept at it in Year IV?
From what I've heard, it also seems that he wants to coach the team, but not lead the program. What does that mean? On this board (and let me repeat that I have never heard him speak and I don't know if he has an accent and I don't care if he has an accent) he is not active with former players, alums, supporters, fans. If I were coach, I'd make selling the program a priority. How hard would it be to allocate 15 minutes every day to make phone calls to season ticket holders, former players, etc? How hard would it be to have a reception before or after games ? I guess we do have those occasionally. How hard would it be to submit to an interview with the broadcaster after every game? Here's a funny story about getting off on the right foot with supporters. I know that some people hate John Calipari and I am making no endorsement of him as a person or coach. The week he came on board as UK's coach, I went up to my parish's pastor who is a huge UK fan, and said something about having a new coach. Father Chuck, now Archbishop Thompson of Indianapolis, said "He's off to a great start. He went to mass the first day he was in Lexington". Maybe he goes every day or maybe that was his only time at Mass for the decade--doesn't matter, it's just a funny story to me. Still, Calipari does a tremendous job connecting with fans. I know he is paid handsomely to do that, but so was former UK coach Billie Gillispie and he did little.
We could keep CBN another year but that would be just postponing the inevitable. We should improve our W-L record, and might even do so if I were named the coach, but with Brett Nelson I think we have a very low ceiling as others have suggested. Maybe he could get us to a .500 record but that is not what we want for our program now and certainly long-term. Maybe he's a decent recruiter-may still be too early to tell on that-but we need more. I think Milan Brown was a good recruiter (love what someone said about CBN being FCMB but without the personality) but that was not enough.
In replacing CBN I pray that we have learned our lesson (I understand it even as an admitted non-expert on basketball) that there is a difference between being an assistant coach at whatever level, and being a head coach. There are a lot of great salesmen who became mediocre sales managers. We need someone who can do all the key tasks- recognizes talent and potential, recruit (persuasive salesmanship), develop talent in school, sell the program to all key constituents, and excel in the X's and O's. Open the checkbook and pay for the best. I'd look to the "Chesney Model" and find a real star in D-2 and D-3. PLEASE-no more long-time assistants from a "top D-1 program".
We need someone new and I'm willing to risk losing players to the portal (sure hope we keep the supremely talented KL for one) knowing that, with the right coach we will be better off in years to come than if we retain CBN. I do wish him the best on the next phase of his career and I do recognize that we may very well keep him for next season,, which 60%+ of our posters recommend.
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Post by longsuffering on Mar 2, 2022 12:33:28 GMT -5
304 (3-29) 344 (5-11) 349(as of this AM) (7[9]-22) Pomeroy rankings and records from ‘20-‘22 Improvement ? 1) Your numbers were wrong 2) Why didn't you go back into pL player the year before Nelson arrived to help set the baseline? It's just so disingenuous to ignore all other factors around the program before and during HCBN's time. PL Records: CARMODY15-16: 5-1316-17: 9-917-18: 8-1018-19: 6-12NELSON19-20: 2-1620-21: 5-1121-22: 7-11We had a better record in the pL this year than Carmody's final year, which lost its three best players before Nelson arrived. At MIMUMUM, we will improve on Carmody's best pL regular season record by 2 games next year (on paper, 11-7 would be a serious disappointment for me). Let's stop pretending Brett Nelson stepped into the program than Sean Kearney inherited from RW 12 years ago (or however many years its been since this nightmare started). How do you value the PLT wins and losses of each coach?
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Mar 2, 2022 12:36:29 GMT -5
304 (3-29) 344 (5-11) 349(as of this AM) (7[9]-22) Pomeroy rankings and records from ‘20-‘22 Improvement ? 1) Your numbers were wrong 2) Why didn't you go back into pL player the year before Nelson arrived to help set the baseline? It's just so disingenuous to ignore all other factors around the program before and during HCBN's time. PL Records: CARMODY15-16: 5-1316-17: 9-917-18: 8-1018-19: 6-12NELSON19-20: 2-1620-21: 5-1121-22: 7-11We had a better record in the pL this year than Carmody's final year, which lost its three best players before Nelson arrived. At MIMUMUM, we will improve on Carmody's best pL regular season record by 2 games next year (on paper, 11-7 would be a serious disappointment for me). Let's stop pretending Brett Nelson stepped into the program than Sean Kearney inherited from RW 12 years ago (or however many years its been since this nightmare started). Pretty staggering that Milan Brown was the last head coach to have a winning record in the Patriot League.
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Post by Tom on Mar 2, 2022 12:38:41 GMT -5
I had low expectations for this year. Literally one guy on the team with a full season of D-I experience under his belt. Injuries are part of the game, but losing the starting point guard and being forced to having a freshman run the offense is not a recipe for success. The team was slotted to finish 9th by probably the most expert analysts and HC did exceed that. Barely exceeded but still exceeded and those voters assumed HC would have a starting point guard.
I did not think things would be as bad as ranked in the bottom 10 in the country. I feel less optimistic today than I did at the end of the 2014 season. Still, this team was never built to win in 2022. I am not pulling the trigger on the coach at this time. I don't think it's reasonable to can the guy for having a lousy season when it was pretty much a foregone conclusion. I am also taking into account that it might be harder to find a decent coach if there's the appearance the school won't give the coach a chance to succeed
This team will not be ridiculously inexperienced next year. There will be higher expectations. While I'm not optimistic, I still have some patience left. Without very noticeably better results, I probably won't be this patient a year from today. (if we're having this conversation a year from today, with it's implication that for the 5th straight season, the season is over before the quarterfinals even start, it's very likely I won't be this patient)
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Mar 2, 2022 12:46:53 GMT -5
304 (3-29) 344 (5-11) 349(as of this AM) (7[9]-22) Pomeroy rankings and records from ‘20-‘22 Improvement ? 1) Your numbers were wrong 2) Why didn't you go back into pL player the year before Nelson arrived to help set the baseline? It's just so disingenuous to ignore all other factors around the program before and during HCBN's time. PL Records: CARMODY15-16: 5-1316-17: 9-917-18: 8-1018-19: 6-12NELSON19-20: 2-1620-21: 5-1121-22: 7-11We had a better record in the pL this year than Carmody's final year, which lost its three best players before Nelson arrived. At MIMUMUM, we will improve on Carmody's best pL regular season record by 2 games next year (on paper, 11-7 would be a serious disappointment for me). Let's stop pretending Brett Nelson stepped into the program than Sean Kearney inherited from RW 12 years ago (or however many years its been since this nightmare started). In Carmody's final year the PL was ranked #21 in D-1 per Pomeroy and was rated (4.84). In Nelson's third year the PL was ranked #28 in D-1 per Pomeroy and was rated (10.32) Conclusion: Carmody faced much tougher competition in conference than Nelson did. Do you disagree with that? here's where the PL teams ranked in D-1, again per Pomeroy, in Carmody's final year and Brett Nelson's third year. Note that PL team rankings will change a bit depending on results of remaining games Team= 2018-19 Rank/2021-2022 Rank =Change
Colgate= 126/132= fell 6 places-not a meaningful change Bucknell= 145/334= fell 189 places--massive decline Lehigh= 169/306= fell 137 places--massive decline American U= 200/333= fell 133 places--massive decline Boston U= 231/214= gained 17 places--slight improvement Holy Cross=239/349= fell 110 places-massive decline Army= 242/290= fell 48 places--meaningful decline Loyola=270/267= gained 3 places--not a meaningful change Navy= 280/174= gained 106 places=very significant improvement Lafayette= 298/324= fell 26 places= slight decline
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Mar 2, 2022 12:54:43 GMT -5
Former ADMB declared that men's hoops was the top sport at HC, followed by football. ADMB has moved on. And I strongly suspect ADMB's hierarchy of sports has moved on with him. Listening to Kit on a very recent webinar for rowing, he said two of his top three priorities were more scollies and increasing the pay of head coaches. No way is the school going to approve a buy-out of Nelson's contract, because that would draw monies away from increasing head coaches' salaries. Now if Crossporters join with rich alums and put up the $$$ to buy-out the contract, that's a different matter. You think ADMB set that hierarchy in a vacuum? No way. I disagree that if Kit put forth a case for buying out Nelson's contract, that it would not be approved. If anything, the fact that the football program has found success just puts more of a spotlight on what a mess the basketball program has been for a decade-plus now, rather than suggesting we're now spending so much on football that we can't afford to buy out Nelson. For that matter, is it at all clear what the length of Nelson's contract is? I've never been clear on whether he signed a four- or five-year deal back in July 2019.
From listening to Kit on the rowing webinar, HC seems to be approaching improving athletics in a systemic, disciplined way, and over a multi-year timeframe. For example, Kit made no mention of increasing assistant coaches' salaries, so perhaps that has been addressed in the current year, or next. Kit did say appointing a new Director of Rowing is not on his priority list. Men's rowing will begin recruiting internationally. Perhaps some other Olympic sports will do so as well. And men's rowing will be making recruiting trips to the West Coast. That suggests recruiting budgets are increasing. Perhaps a corollary to how the basketball program is viewed by Kit, seven of the top 12 men's rowers are freshmen, and they appear to be setting a 3-4 year time horizon for program success. There was discussion about sending a crew to the Royal Henley in the future, and Kit described how he had already looked up the prescribed attire. Kit said he has had one-on-one discussions with every head coach about what it will take to improve their program, an d what are their goals for a successful program. Doesn't sound at all like a man who, less than two months into his tenure, is rushing to judgment about the current set of coaches, and ready to push a coach over the side at considerable cost to the college. And have the college revert to a cycle of replacing the current coach because of a perception by some that the grass is always greener on nearly every other campus. If one accepts that RW found a home at HC only because he was on the outs elsewhere, then, with the exception of RW, the parade of failed or failing coaches extends back to the last century. If so, even more argument for not rushing, because the college can ill-afford to hire a fifth head coach since RW and who also fails.
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Post by hchoops on Mar 2, 2022 13:13:20 GMT -5
304 (3-29) 344 (5-11) 349(as of this AM) (7[9]-22) Pomeroy rankings and records from ‘20-‘22 Improvement ? 1) Your numbers were wrong 2) Why didn't you go back into pL player the year before Nelson arrived to help set the baseline? It's just so disingenuous to ignore all other factors around the program before and during HCBN's time. PL Records: CARMODY15-16: 5-1316-17: 9-917-18: 8-1018-19: 6-12NELSON19-20: 2-1620-21: 5-1121-22: 7-11We had a better record in the pL this year than Carmody's final year, which lost its three best players before Nelson arrived. At MIMUMUM, we will improve on Carmody's best pL regular season record by 2 games next year (on paper, 11-7 would be a serious disappointment for me). Let's stop pretending Brett Nelson stepped into the program than Sean Kearney inherited from RW 12 years ago (or however many years its been since this nightmare started). All predictions are meaningless.when the discussion should be factual based. Which of my numbers are wrong ? you left that out Using your accurate numbers PL / Overall (which you omitted) Winning percentage: Carmody-.389- .443 Nelson- .269- ..225
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Post by trimster on Mar 2, 2022 13:25:21 GMT -5
To say we are playing our best basketball in over a decade is passing an exceedingly low bar. Overall, HC had another dreadful season and I have little optimism for anything over .500 next season. I think you are really overrating the talent level of this roster and I see little evidence our coach has the ability to make the whole greater than the sum of the parts. To end the season with a performance eerily similar to the Quinnipiac game 4 months ago in which we were backdoored to death, was a huge disappointment. The cherry on top of the sundae came at the end of first half interview where BN threw his players under the bus with some of the few words he has spoken to the media in three years. Between that, the Senior Day fiasco of not starting DJ Hart and allowing Colgate to dribble out clock uncontested, it was a tough week for CBN. Hopefully he learned from it. While I am certainly more optimistic about the talent than most around here, I don't really know how you could take any roster that we've had over the last 10 years and say it's better than or has more potential than what we have now. IMO people are really discounting the impact that COVID had on the development of such a young roster -- COVID has impacted their high school careers, access to training, entry to HC, offseason training, losing half of the Soph class's Froshman season, etc. etc. PL players are never finished products in their Frosh & Soph years, and that is particularly the case with the type of headwind these guys have had to face. "Sure things"- Gates: All-PL player - Luc: ROY, all-PL ceiling - RJJ: starting pL point guard, team leader (needs to get healthy) Potential- Montgomery: all-PL ceiling (avg 12 pts & 4.5 rebs and shot 46.2% from 3 during an 8-game stretch in pL play), in addition to being a very strong defender. He has the potential to be a 15-16 & 6 guy and lock down defender, who can defend all guard positions - Louth: starting pL big -- in the COVID impact mentioned above, he may have been most impacted (arrived at HC in January of Frosh year, couldn't do anything in Canada prior to that). The end of this season was essentially the start of his Soph year in "normal" circumstances. - Kenny: all-pL ceiling. I have heard comparisons to Jehyve Floyd in terms of basketball development timing (started playing the game later), wingspan, and shot-blocking ability. That's a pretty high ceiling, but the potential is certainly there in Kenny, who brings a combination of athleticism and physicality that isn't common in the pL That is the core going forward, and the key is going to be other guys stepping up:- Batchelder: I am excited to see what he can do and if he can fill a much provided some much needed strong perimeter shooting to space out the floor - Humphrey: Sort of an enigma this year -- I see a lot of potential in him, but his minutes are extremely inconsistent, which leads me to believe something isn't going right in practice. If he can come into his own in his Junior & Senior seasons, that would be a huge boost - Martindale: Was battling injuries for at least part of the year, but has show some flashes. If he could even just be a spot-up 3-point specialist, that would be a helpful addition - Dorsey: Great defender, but needs to add to his offensive game. At the bare minimum he is a solid pL contributor and great culture piece of the program on the defensive end. - Rabinovich: will he ever be healthy? - Lewis: Bit of a lottery ticket with a high ceiling and low floor y While this certainly ins't the 04-05 roster with Hamilton, Simmons, Thomas, Clifford, and Doherty, after a decade poor recruiting and/or roster management, we finally have enough pieces in place where we can have serious potential for a strong run over multiple years. I think you vastly overrate the three in the potential group. Hopefully I am wrong on all counts. Obviously it is very early to say much about Louth and Kenney and maybe Montgomery can develop some consistency going forward. I'd be happy if one them reached all PL.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Mar 2, 2022 13:29:12 GMT -5
1) Your numbers were wrong 2) Why didn't you go back into pL player the year before Nelson arrived to help set the baseline? It's just so disingenuous to ignore all other factors around the program before and during HCBN's time. PL Records: CARMODY15-16: 5-1316-17: 9-917-18: 8-1018-19: 6-12NELSON19-20: 2-1620-21: 5-1121-22: 7-11We had a better record in the pL this year than Carmody's final year, which lost its three best players before Nelson arrived. At MIMUMUM, we will improve on Carmody's best pL regular season record by 2 games next year (on paper, 11-7 would be a serious disappointment for me). Let's stop pretending Brett Nelson stepped into the program than Sean Kearney inherited from RW 12 years ago (or however many years its been since this nightmare started). In Carmody's final year the PL was ranked #21 in D-1 per Pomeroy and was rated (4.84). In Nelson's third year the PL was ranked #28 in D-1 per Pomeroy and was rated (10.32) Conclusion: Carmody faced much tougher competition in conference than Nelson did. Do you disagree with that? I completely disagree. The pL rankings in Carmody's four years were 27-23-27-21 (avg = 24.5) The pL rankings in Nelson's three years were 28-24-23 (avg = 25) The pL has been ranked between 23-28 in 7 of the last 8 year and you picked the one "outlier" when the pL was ranked at 21. My follow-up question would be: what difference does it make? The bottom of the pL is a little worse now than it was in Carmody's final year, but the league stunk at both points. If it stunk slightly less one year than another, I don't think that really tells any story of significance.
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Post by Ray on Mar 2, 2022 13:34:51 GMT -5
You think ADMB set that hierarchy in a vacuum? No way. I disagree that if Kit put forth a case for buying out Nelson's contract, that it would not be approved. If anything, the fact that the football program has found success just puts more of a spotlight on what a mess the basketball program has been for a decade-plus now, rather than suggesting we're now spending so much on football that we can't afford to buy out Nelson. For that matter, is it at all clear what the length of Nelson's contract is? I've never been clear on whether he signed a four- or five-year deal back in July 2019.
From listening to Kit on the rowing webinar, HC seems to be approaching improving athletics in a systemic, disciplined way, and over a multi-year timeframe. For example, Kit made no mention of increasing assistant coaches' salaries, so perhaps that has been addressed in the current year, or next. Kit did say appointing a new Director of Rowing is not on his priority list. Men's rowing will begin recruiting internationally. Perhaps some other Olympic sports will do so as well. And men's rowing will be making recruiting trips to the West Coast. That suggests recruiting budgets are increasing. Perhaps a corollary to how the basketball program is viewed by Kit, seven of the top 12 men's rowers are freshmen, and they appear to be setting a 3-4 year time horizon for program success. There was discussion about sending a crew to the Royal Henley in the future, and Kit described how he had already looked up the prescribed attire. Kit said he has had one-on-one discussions with every head coach about what it will take to improve their program, an d what are their goals for a successful program. Doesn't sound at all like a man who, less than two months into his tenure, is rushing to judgment about the current set of coaches, and ready to push a coach over the side at considerable cost to the college. And have the college revert to a cycle of replacing the current coach because of a perception by some that the grass is always greener on nearly every other campus. If one accepts that RW found a home at HC only because he was on the outs elsewhere, then, with the exception of RW, the parade of failed or failing coaches extends back to the last century. If so, even more argument for not rushing, because the college can ill-afford to hire a fifth head coach since RW and who also fails.The last point is the critical one, and I agree with you.
But if you think you can extrapolate the AD's approach to running the basketball program based on what he says about the rowing program, I think you're looking for clues that aren't there.
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Post by Ignutz on Mar 2, 2022 13:51:42 GMT -5
I think they should move from Nelson. Last night's game was extremely disappointing and frustrating and I don't think Nelson is the guy. That being said, I think he will get one more year. As a previous post mentioned, give the new AD some time to assess the program and assemble potential replacement candidates and make a solid hire, not a rushed one. Unless he's already done some of that homework and has a potential candidate or two on speed-dial.
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