Kentucky Derby 2022 - Predictions?

Exciting day today as Coach Lukas, who still rides a pony at age 86, won the Kentucky Oaks for the 5th time. I hit a nice pick three ending at the Oaks. Our "syndicate" (6 of us have been putting in group wagers on big days for 15+ years) was alive to Nest and Kathleen O in the Oaks Pick Four but the Coach beat us. We are alive in the two day Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby pick three to multiple runners.

Here are my selections for the Kentucky Derby

A= 6,10
B= 1,3,5,12
C= 7,8,15,16
ALSO =17,18 could fill out the bottom of the superfecta at very long odds

#6 Messier is my top choice When you go beyond 1&1/16th miles I get really involved with the pedigree analysis. There are runners who excel at 1 Mile or 1 &1/16th who have np realistic chance at 9 F (1&1/8th) or 10F (1&1/4 the Derby distance) Messier is the first foal out of a mare who won at 1&1/16th (i.e. she was not a sprinter) and the sire is the great stamina influence Empire Maker , Belmont Stakes winner, whose foals can go a distance of ground. 1 of every 33 wins by his foals are at marathon distances--that is very good. Messier finished second to Taiba (more about him later) in the Santa Anita Derby in his last prep. He excelled at age 2, has moved forward in 2 preps as a 3YO (2 or 3 preps are ideal), could be "forwardly placed" and has John Velazquez in the irons. It is a drawback that he has only competed in small fields (there will be 20 in the race tomorrow) but his tactical speed will hopefully keep him out of trouble. He is named after the great NHL star--just as Derby winner Nyquist was a few years back. 

#10 Zandon will be the Single A in our syndicate's Pick four and Pick Five. He looked great winning the Blue Grass. Alas, we have less sibling data for him than for other runners. He is the only foal from a dam who did not race and his sire is young and has had only 2 marathon races among his foals. Flavien Prat is a great rider.

#1 Mo Donegal won the Remsen at 9F, disappointed in the Holy Bull, then redeemed himself with an impressive win in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct coming home the final 3/8ths in a sparkling 35-2.Pletcher trains and even though he is something like 2 for 58 in the Derby he is a great trainer. He’ll run 4 or 5 lengths behind the pace setters

#3 Epicenter may go off as the favorite. He “has done nothing wrong” since breaking his maiden in his second start and comes in off daylight wins in the Risen Star and then in the Louisiana Derby, one of the longest preps at 1&3/16ths. He has stamina from the dam-side and his sire won the Preakness but his foals are 5 0-2-1 at marathon distances—not enough data to draw a firm conclusion.

#5 Smile Happy finished second in the Risen Star and the Blue Grass but has had troubled trips in a number of races

#12 Taiba is the WILD CARD. He has raced only twice, destroying a maiden field in his debut at 6F and then whipping Messier in the Santa Anita Derby in very fast time. He has moved from Bob Baffert’s barn to Tim Yakteen. So he does not have a lot of experience or “foundation” but may be so talented that he can win by open lengths tomorrow. Mike Smith is the rider.

You’ll see the “C” choices above-I guess they do have some chance to win by either getting a great trip or making a huge move forward. I hope to be alive to them in the horizontals because some will be at very ling odds and will have huge “will pays”. If you win at the Kentucky Derby with its 20 entries you will get paid handsomely. It’s amazing to thin that millions of dollars will be bet in total on a number of runners who have absolutely no chance of winning: too slow, poorly bred, no business being in the race. We love their bettors!

I need to get to bed—hope this was of interest to any racing fans and good luck tomorrow!

Thanks, KY. I just regurgitate your insights to the kids throughout Derby Day each year and they think I’m some sort of horse racing savant.

Thanks so much Ky for your keen insights into the Derby, always enjoy your well researched thoughts on this great event! 

Big day here for us as well as our first grandchild (grandson) is graduating from Nichols College this morning... ceremony at the DCU center in Worcester!

So proud of his accomplishments and the bright future he has in front of him!!!

This is how I feel as well. I probably wouldn't even watch the Derby, except that my wife went to it several times while a student at Vanderbilt and says it is an amazing event (mint juleps notwithstanding).

Will Brady and crew make their usual pilgrimage?

Taiba and Epicenter now 5-1. Messier 6-1.

7 career starts before today. 1 win. Crazy.

^. ^. ^. ^
Do you know Anyone who bet on the 21 horse?

Preakness Stakes today from Pimlico in Baltimore.

After a great run at Keeneland, I had a terrible Ky Derby day and then no success in several tries at Belmont. Hoping to turn things around at Pimlico.


In the Preakness Stakes all signs point to Epicenter, who ran the best race in the Derby. It’s too bad that Rich Strike, Derby winner, has skipped this race as he would have sucked up a lot of money. Epicenter won’t face the insane pace that we saw in the Derby. Epicenter won the Louisiana Derby by 2&1/2 lengths at this odd 1&3/16ths distance.

Second choice is #5 Early Voting who should be fresh after finishing a close second in a fast Wood Memorial in April. Chad Brown, winning at an unbelievable 33% rate this year, trains.

We’ll back these two up with #1 Simplification a nice runner who seems a cut below the top two, #4 Secret Oath the Lukas filly who finished 3rd against the colts in the Arkansas Derby before defeating a tremendous field of fillies in the Kentucky Oaks, and #7 Armagnac a real wild card. I’ve not yet seen my partner’s selections for the race but I think he likes Early Voting.

Belmont Stakes today, a real test at 1&1/2 miles on the huge Belmont main track.

#1 We the People will likely take the most money and is a real threat as the lone front runner in the field of 8. If he is not challenged on the lead he could run a 49 to 50 second first half mile and cruise home gate to wire. He has a great rider in Flavien Prat. Still I have some concerns about his stamina pedigree so he won’t be my top choice.

#4 Rich Strike is the KY Derby winner who sadly skipped the Preakness and thus has 5 weeks of rest for this race. He is an extreme deep closer but I don’t think he will get the blistering pace that set him up for the Derby score at 80-1. As well his rider Sonny Leon has never had a mount at Belmont. Sonny will try to get a feel for the track with a mount in the first race. Rich Strike could win so he’ll be in my horizontals.

#6 Mo Donegal is my top choice as he has run well every race and I think Irad will have him closer to the lead today than he was in the Derby. I like his pedigree for the 12F distance. #

#5 Creative Minister is a wild card who has been showing improvement and I’ll include him in horizontals and maybe the filly but I think she stands little chance to win.

I hit a very small pick six on Thursday with a very small wager and had a pretty good day yesterday, so I’m hoping to build on that momentum today. Good luck to anyone who plays today