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Post by Crosser on Nov 5, 2022 17:45:00 GMT -5
The past three years have squeezed the usual wild optimism out of me. That said, I always have hope; whether or not it’s based in reality is another matter. I agree with those who say the two D-3 contests do not count as games. 4-7 OOC 8-10 PL 1 PLT 13 Total wins Please surprise me, ‘Saders!! So if “the rules” say I hafta’ include the two D-3 “games” I suppose my prediction needs to be revised as follows: 15 Total wins. |
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Post by hchoops on Nov 5, 2022 18:27:30 GMT -5
Persuaded, I will then go for 9
Still “truly abysmal”
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Post by bringbackcaro on Nov 6, 2022 18:19:35 GMT -5
his recruiting has been very good+), Go Cross Go!! Sadly, in 2022, recruiting is a two step process. Not only getting kids to commit, but also retaining those same kids. Thus far, 42 percent of the kids this staff has brought in as freshmen have left the school. I know the portal makes us deal with a new standard in 2022, but 42 percent still seems like a high percentage to me. I sincerely hope not, but that number can only go up if any of the seven kids still on the team choose to leave. Luc, for example, was indeed a very good recruit, but I don't know if that counts when he's playing somewhere else. I need to see that 42 percent attrition rate for freshmen drop before I will say "very good+" I expect better going forward, but Nelson was up against (1) a dreadful program culture created by his predecessor who let miscreants run wild, (2) a pandemic that greatly impacted campus life, and (3) the beginning of the transfer portal. We are now at a place where we have what should be a very good mix of transfers + recruited players and SHOULD be in a position for a run of sustained success. |
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Post by hchoops on Nov 6, 2022 18:31:14 GMT -5
I love your unbridled optimism.
But even if we come close to your win total this season, how can this team replace Gates next season ? He has been and most likely will be (and should be) the offensive focal point this year.
Where will the scoring come from next season ?
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Post by rgs318 on Nov 6, 2022 20:10:34 GMT -5
Before we speculate on scoring next year, should not wait until we see who scores this year? That could provide an answer to your question with more accuracy than what would at this point little more than a wild guess.
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Post by efg72 on Nov 6, 2022 20:20:17 GMT -5
BBC all of what you say might be true, and let’s assume 100% accurate, until he can lead the team and win game coaching situations, each season will disappoint. Now I hope I am wrong, and your optimism is reality-fingers crossed
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Post by bringbackcaro on Nov 6, 2022 21:23:37 GMT -5
I love your unbridled optimism. But even if we come close to your win total this season, how can this team replace Gates next season ? He has been and most likely will be (and should be) the offensive focal point this year. Where will the scoring come from next season ? Are we really already complaining about next year?? I love Gates, but it’s not like he’s scoring 30 PPG - he averaged 16.2 PPG last year. If his minutes next year are broken into some combination of Louth, Kenny, Wilbar, a potential transfer this spring, etc. and they can score 10-12 PPG in the Gates minutes, that would mean we’d only need an incremental 4 PPG from the rest of the team to backfill that production. Go Cross Go! Beat Siena!! |
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Post by hchoops on Nov 6, 2022 21:32:54 GMT -5
“..we should be in a position of sustained success”
I was replying to your words
16.2 was 25% of our points
P.L games- 18.6
Without Luc my belief is that average and % will rise this season
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Post by classof83 on Nov 7, 2022 8:15:09 GMT -5
6-7 OOC
Wins-Dean, Stonehill, Colby-Sawyer, Central Conn, Quinnipiac, UNH
Losses- Siena, Creighton, Fordham, Illinois-Chicago, Harvard, Northeastern, Sacred Heart
Conference 9-9
Home wins - Bucknell, Army, American, Lafayette, Loyola,
Home losses- Colgate, Navy, Lehigh, Boston University
Away wins - Lafayette, Boston University, Lehigh
Away losses- Bucknell, Army, American, Loyola, Colgate, Navy,
win one game in PL Tournament
16 wins 17 losses
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Post by bringbackcaro on Nov 7, 2022 8:33:42 GMT -5
“..we should be in a position of sustained success” I was replying to your words 16.2 was 25% of our points P.L games- 18.6 Without Luc my belief is that average and % will rise this season My assumption is based around having a successful year this year. My assumption is also based on our success this year being driven primarily by an increase in quality of player from players 2-8/9, not by an increase in quality from Gates — I think he will be a 1st team all-PL player, but we need more (+ consistency) from the rest of the team to take a big step forward. I expect big things from Bo and Kenny this year, and to a somewhat lesser extent Batchelder, Louth, Octave, and Dorsey. If that group steps up this year and all return next year, we’ll be in a pretty good position. If we don’t have a successful year, I think we all know what will happen next… |
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Post by sader1970 on Nov 7, 2022 8:52:08 GMT -5
I, for one, appreciate your implied acknowledgement of reality. Let's all hope that the team will exceed the expectations of most of us here starting tonight.
GO CROSS GO!!
Any guesses on whether we will see a contingent of football players supporting their basketball brothers tonight? I'm guessing "yes."
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Post by Tom on Nov 7, 2022 9:22:32 GMT -5
Sadly, in 2022, recruiting is a two step process. Not only getting kids to commit, but also retaining those same kids. Thus far, 42 percent of the kids this staff has brought in as freshmen have left the school. I know the portal makes us deal with a new standard in 2022, but 42 percent still seems like a high percentage to me. I sincerely hope not, but that number can only go up if any of the seven kids still on the team choose to leave. Luc, for example, was indeed a very good recruit, but I don't know if that counts when he's playing somewhere else. I need to see that 42 percent attrition rate for freshmen drop before I will say "very good+" I expect better going forward, but Nelson was up against (1) a dreadful program culture created by his predecessor who let miscreants run wild, (2) a pandemic that greatly impacted campus life, and (3) the beginning of the transfer portal. We are now at a place where we have what should be a very good mix of transfers + recruited players and SHOULD be in a position for a run of sustained success. I also hope for better going forward. Since i was only referring to the freshmen that Coach Nelson brought in, I'm not sure it's reasonable to blame the program culture of his predecessor. Of the five kids that Nelson recruited that left the school, four left after his third year. Three years seems like a long time to say kids our leaving because of a culture created by a staff they never met. Especially since there weren't a lot of holdovers from that period to bring that dreadful culture forward into the Nelson era. The other points are very likely contributing causes, but also the case at other schools. I'll even throw in the fact there's no more sit out year. Transfers are up everywhere and HC has reaped some benefit. I hope you're right and the seven guys on the team that came in as freshmen all graduate from HC. Either way, this is a no excuses kind of year |
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Post by bringbackcaro on Nov 7, 2022 10:29:31 GMT -5
I expect better going forward, but Nelson was up against (1) a dreadful program culture created by his predecessor who let miscreants run wild, (2) a pandemic that greatly impacted campus life, and (3) the beginning of the transfer portal. We are now at a place where we have what should be a very good mix of transfers + recruited players and SHOULD be in a position for a run of sustained success. I also hope for better going forward. Since i was only referring to the freshmen that Coach Nelson brought in, I'm not sure it's reasonable to blame the program culture of his predecessor. Of the five kids that Nelson recruited that left the school, four left after his third year. Three years seems like a long time to say kids our leaving because of a culture created by a staff they never met. Especially since there weren't a lot of holdovers from that period to bring that dreadful culture forward into the Nelson era. The other points are very likely contributing causes, but also the case at other schools. I'll even throw in the fact there's no more sit out year. Transfers are up everywhere and HC has reaped some benefit. I hope you're right and the seven guys on the team that came in as freshmen all graduate from HC. Either way, this is a no excuses kind of year Program culture is set by the head coach + staff, but driven primarily by upperclassmen. This is the first year where there is any type of significant presence from upperclassmen. I expect that this will pay major dividends in both results on the court and player retention. |
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Post by CHC8485 on Nov 7, 2022 11:21:33 GMT -5
OK. Tip-off for the season is about 8 hours away.
If you look at the trend in wins under HCBN
2019-2020 ....3 wins
2020-2021.... 5 wins
2021-2022 ... 9 wins
So if x is the number of wins in the prior year the pattern after the baseline year is
x + (x-1) = number of wins in the current year.
3 + 2 = 5
5 + 4 = 9
So for this year the pattern would result in...
9 + 8 = 17 wins
I think that is possible but have not seen anything to be that optimistic. But if I put my purple-est glasses on I see ...
6 - 7 OOC
9 - 9 PL
0 - 1 PLT
So 15 wins at my most optimistic self.
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hc99
Crusader Century Club
Posts: 108
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Post by hc99 on Nov 7, 2022 12:22:51 GMT -5
put me in the 7 or fewer category. I have no faith in Coach Nelson but hoping he proves me wrong.
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Post by Ray on Nov 7, 2022 13:21:03 GMT -5
Don't have time for a full breakdown, but I'm registered in the 8-10 category.
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Post by Tom on Nov 7, 2022 14:01:25 GMT -5
Last year, HC went into the season with only one scholarship guy (Gates) who had a full season of D-I college ball under his belt. At the time I thought it was a recipe for disaster and the team won 9 games. All things being equal, one would think this team has to be better than last year just from players having familiarity with the speed and physicality of the D-I game
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 7, 2022 14:06:45 GMT -5
Last year, HC went into the season with only one scholarship guy (Gates) who had a full season of D-I college ball under his belt. At the time I thought it was a recipe for disaster and the team won 9 games. All things being equal, one would think this team has to be better than last year just from players having familiarity with the speed and physicality of the D-I game Yeah, but we also lost our best player and a handful of players who saw significant minutes (good or bad). Gates, Bo, and Joe are really the only guys who are known commodities. I think anything we get from the two other transfers outside of Joe (Wilbar and Tse) are bonuses. I really struggle to see where consistent scoring comes from, so if Octave and Gates want to shoot 30-35 times a night, that'd be fine with me. Kenney is a guy who I hope makes a giant leap forward this year. He's got a little Floyd in his game. |
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 7, 2022 14:11:07 GMT -5
We lost a lot in the many players departing due to graduation or transfer. Is the incoming talent better than what we have lost and, more importantly, have the coaches upped their games from what we have seen the last few years? I hate to think that the whole may again be less than the sum of the parts...
OOC 5-8
PL 6-12
Post Season 1-1
12 wins total--I think that's on the optimistic end of realistic and I hope everything gels and I am proven wrong.
Some thoughts on the players and potential for the season
Gerrale Gates-- Clearly our very best player, we'll depend heavily on him, but I don't think we can expect him to improve over last season
Joe Octave-- We are going to need him to be a solid contributor from the first jump ball. He had some good experience at AFA and can help us
Bo Montgomery-- encouraged by Bo's improvement in 3 point shooting last year--need him to move forward this season if we are to succeed
Caleb Kenney-- Had a 100+ offensive rating in 8 of last 10 games--need that and more from Caleb this season
Will Batchelder-- Here is the real wild card--if he is a very, very good shooter, as some think he could be, he'll be a big contributor. Is he ready for prime time?
Nolan Dorsey--I recall many of us thought he couldn't shoot, but then he hit .378 on his threes for the season. I think he'll contribute more this season
Jade Tse-- His offense numbers at Houston Baptist were astoundingly low--hoping he is good on defense and can do some good when on the point.
Jaden Kirkwood- can't tell much at this point
Big men-- Wilbar, Lewis, Coulibaly, Rabinovich---can one or more of them provide quality minutes? Is Rabs now healthy and able to build on his Maccabiah Games experience? Will Austin Lewis get a chance to show what he can do? He appeared to have some mobility and a decent shot but hard to tell in so few minutes against D-1 teams. Coulibaly has some physical gifts--have we been able to enhance his skills? Wilbar--don't know, but he did have some good games as a Sycamore. Have we coached him up?
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Post by hchoops on Nov 7, 2022 14:53:10 GMT -5
Defense, defense, defense, inc defensive rebounds
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Post by sader1970 on Nov 7, 2022 15:32:47 GMT -5
Does bring back one of the few one-on-one conversations I had with Coach Carmody. When I suggested to him that a coming season would be an uphill battle because we lost so many experienced seniors (recall this was before we had wholesale transfers out of our basketball program) he snidely remarked something to the effect that "yeah, if we had won a lot of games with those seniors I'd be concerned."
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Post by Tom on Nov 7, 2022 16:44:54 GMT -5
Does bring back one of the few one-on-one conversations I had with Coach Carmody. When I suggested to him that a coming season would be an uphill battle because we lost so many experienced seniors (recall this was before we had wholesale transfers out of our basketball program) he snidely remarked something to the effect that "yeah, if we had won a lot of games with those seniors I'd be concerned." I don't think that's an appropriate analogy. We talk about the fact that we can't expect too much from freshmen because it takes time to become accustomed to the college game. Especially big guys. I think it's reasonable to expect most guys will be better as soph's than freshmen. Will they be sufficiently improved to make me happy? Only time will tell. Towards Coach Carmody's comment - Experience doesn't necessarily make you good, but I think in most cases it makes you better than you were |
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 7, 2022 17:38:45 GMT -5
Poll closes shortly
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Post by hchoops on Nov 7, 2022 18:01:26 GMT -5
36 of 60 current voters pick us to win 13 (11 D1) or fewer.of 31 total games
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Post by Crosser on Nov 7, 2022 18:13:24 GMT -5
36 of 60 current voters pick us to win 13 (11 D1) or fewer.of 31 total games We’re all anxiously hoping for improvement, but aren’t holding our breaths expecting it. |
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