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Post by dadominate on Dec 5, 2016 12:40:50 GMT -5
someone - ky, sov, maybe someone else? - recently posted that karl charles was leading the pl in what i believe was offensive efficiency.
could you post the statistics for the rest of our roster and how the statistic is calculated? thanks.
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Post by lou on Dec 5, 2016 12:43:49 GMT -5
Those and other stat leaders are on the PL web site. Not sure about entire teams
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Dec 5, 2016 13:15:45 GMT -5
I'll do this in increments if that's okay. First the numbers for HC players
121.6= KC (102.1 as a frosh) 111.0= JF 107.1= MH 106.0= PB 97.1= MA (compare to 103.5 as soph and 109.0 as junior)
The following "o-ratings" I would categorize as "extremely low"
83.8= AT 82.9= MZ 81.8= RC (103.3 as soph and 101.0 as junior)
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Dec 5, 2016 13:25:39 GMT -5
I'm trying to find info on how the "o-rating" is calculated--exploring the KenPom website but have not yet found the answer
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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 5, 2016 13:40:10 GMT -5
I'm trying to find info on how the "o-rating" is calculated--exploring the KenPom website but have not yet found the answer The ORtg (developed by Dean Oliver, the Bill James of advanced basketball stats) is points produced per 100 possessions - the Sports-Ref CBB site also tracks it, believe it's same as KenPom. However, both "points produced" and "possessions" are fairly complicated calculations. www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Dec 5, 2016 13:40:13 GMT -5
Okay--here's where KC stands among all Patriot League players who have played at least 40% of the team's minutes
127.8= Jordan Cohen Lehigh 124.5= Tyler Scanlan Boston University 121.6= Karl Charles HC 121.1= Matthew Wilson Army 118.3= Sean O'Brien Colgate
63 PL players have played 40% of minutes and thus are ranked. Here's where our guys stand
3= KC 19= MH 21= PB 35= MA 55= AT 56= RC
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Post by rgs318 on Dec 5, 2016 15:03:53 GMT -5
It hurts to see RC's numbers. I hope he rounds into form soon.
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Post by dadominate on Dec 5, 2016 17:03:05 GMT -5
thanks for the stats (ky) and the methodology (woogray). i like this statistic as it seems to capture most of the elements of a productive offensive player.
nice to see kc atop the list in our league. jf's high rating was a little surprising, although the high ratings of mh and pb come as no surprise as they have both been productive in limited minutes. ant is who he is and we just need to make the most of it until pb and cg are running the show next year. however, i think rc will definitely improve from where he is now. and he will need to do so for us to be successful.
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Post by hc2489 on Dec 5, 2016 18:39:05 GMT -5
what does offensive efficiency factor in when it's calculated?
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Post by dadominate on Dec 5, 2016 18:56:54 GMT -5
what does offensive efficiency factor in when it's calculated? this is lifted from the site woogray provided. pretty comprehensive! "Offensive Rating In Dean's words, "Individual offensive rating is the number of points produced by a player per hundred total individual possessions. In other words, 'How many points is a player likely to generate when he tries?'" The basic building blocks of the Offensive Rating calculation are Individual Total Possessions and Individual Points Produced. The formula for Total Possessions is broken down into four components: Scoring Possessions, Missed FG Possessions, Missed FT Possessions, and Turnovers. The Scoring Possessions formula is by far the most complex: ScPoss = (FG_Part + AST_Part + FT_Part) * (1 - (Team_ORB / Team_Scoring_Poss) * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%) + ORB_Part where: FG_Part = FGM * (1 - 0.5 * ((PTS - FTM) / (2 * FGA)) * qAST) qAST = ((MP / (Team_MP / 5)) * (1.14 * ((Team_AST - AST) / Team_FGM))) + ((((Team_AST / Team_MP) * MP * 5 - AST) / ((Team_FGM / Team_MP) * MP * 5 - FGM)) * (1 - (MP / (Team_MP / 5)))) AST_Part = 0.5 * (((Team_PTS - Team_FTM) - (PTS - FTM)) / (2 * (Team_FGA - FGA))) * AST FT_Part = (1-(1-(FTM/FTA))^2)*0.4*FTA Team_Scoring_Poss = Team_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Team_FTM / Team_FTA))^2) * Team_FTA * 0.4 Team_ORB_Weight = ((1 - Team_ORB%) * Team_Play%) / ((1 - Team_ORB%) * Team_Play% + Team_ORB% * (1 - Team_Play%)) Team_ORB% = Team_ORB / (Team_ORB + (Opponent_TRB - Opponent_ORB)) Team_Play% = Team_Scoring_Poss / (Team_FGA + Team_FTA * 0.4 + Team_TOV) ORB_Part = ORB * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play% Missed FG and Missed FT Possessions are calculated as follows: FGxPoss = (FGA - FGM) * (1 - 1.07 * Team_ORB%) FTxPoss = ((1 - (FTM / FTA))^2) * 0.4 * FTA Total Possessions are then computed like so: TotPoss = ScPoss + FGxPoss + FTxPoss + TOV Now, Individual Points Produced must also be calculated: PProd = (PProd_FG_Part + PProd_AST_Part + FTM) * (1 - (Team_ORB / Team_Scoring_Poss) * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%) + PProd_ORB_Part where: PProd_FG_Part = 2 * (FGM + 0.5 * 3PM) * (1 - 0.5 * ((PTS - FTM) / (2 * FGA)) * qAST) PProd_AST_Part = 2 * ((Team_FGM - FGM + 0.5 * (Team_3PM - 3PM)) / (Team_FGM - FGM)) * 0.5 * (((Team_PTS - Team_FTM) - (PTS - FTM)) / (2 * (Team_FGA - FGA))) * AST PProd_ORB_Part = ORB * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play% * (Team_PTS / (Team_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Team_FTM / Team_FTA))^2) * 0.4 * Team_FTA)) After all of that, we can finally calculate the player's individual Offensive Rating: ORtg = 100 * (PProd / TotPoss) As a side note, we can also calculate what Oliver calls Floor Percentage, which answers the question, "What percentage of the time that a player wants to score does he actually score?": Floor% = ScPoss / TotPoss "
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Post by sarasota on Dec 5, 2016 21:19:47 GMT -5
Little wisps of smoke are coming out of my ears.
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Post by hc2489 on Dec 6, 2016 10:42:20 GMT -5
interesting. I didn't expect that to be so simple.
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Post by ncaam on Dec 6, 2016 10:57:08 GMT -5
In the context of of HC basketball what action should be taken by coach Carmody? Bench Anthony Thompson and Robert Champion? Who will take their minutes?
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Post by ericobeyyourthirst on Dec 6, 2016 11:42:04 GMT -5
In the context of of HC basketball what action should be taken by coach Carmody? Bench Anthony Thompson and Robert Champion? Who will take their minutes? Champion has a track record that suggests he will right the ship. Does AT have a similar history, I think PB would be well served getting an additional 5-8 minutes at PG.
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Post by ncaam on Dec 6, 2016 12:19:53 GMT -5
Do the stats predict either will or will not right the ship? Do we have other options for either since offense is only part of the game? Not sure CRW would value the o stats that much. Just a thought.
Based on the eye test I would give both plenty of pine time if we had other options. We are getting little from at on offense and RC on defense.
All I'm saying is relying too much on o stat analysis is the wrong way to go.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Dec 6, 2016 12:43:27 GMT -5
No one is suggesting that we put unduly heavy reliance on o-stats. They are, however, a valuable resource--one of many-- for the coaching staff
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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 6, 2016 12:51:58 GMT -5
And, fwiw, there's a corresponding DRtg . . . Nana Foulland tops the PL in that category
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Dec 6, 2016 12:53:18 GMT -5
It is kind of amazing, when you think about it, that Ant will likely finish career with the third-most 3PT attempts in HC history (more than Beinert and Simmons), yet he's a sub 30% 3PT shooter.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Dec 6, 2016 13:06:54 GMT -5
It is kind of amazing, when you think about it, that Ant will likely finish career with the third-most 3PT attempts in HC history (more than Beinert and Simmons), yet he's a sub 30% 3PT shooter. ANT's at .307 career now on his threes and it sure seems likely that he'll cross the .300 line unless we see a big change in his proficiency. It's one of the most curious developments in HC hoops history that he such a fantastic freshman season that he was unable to match or build on--injuries, etc. The red light is on
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Dec 6, 2016 13:13:34 GMT -5
If he continues to shoot at a 27% clip this year, he will check in south of 30% for his career. I wish his game mirrored more that of Pat Benzan who picks his spots nicely and rarely forces a bad shot.
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Post by Tom on Dec 6, 2016 14:10:31 GMT -5
If he continues to shoot at a 27% clip this year, he will check in south of 30% for his career. I wish his game mirrored more that of Pat Benzan who picks his spots nicely and rarely forces a bad shot. while I'll admit there are times I cringe at a clanked 3 with 20+ seconds on the shot clock, Thompson seems to get most of the expiring shot clock, bad look, desperation 3's and that will reduce percentage. No one has a red light when the shot clock is at 1. I'm sure there are many reasons, good and bad, why Thompson seems to mostly be the guy with the ball when the shot clock hits 1 and I'm not delving that deep right now. Just observing that a high number of desperation 3's skews the overall percentage
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Post by ncaam on Dec 6, 2016 14:21:25 GMT -5
How about giving the frosh some minutes. Geez, are they (TC, CLS and JS) invisible. Give PB the keys for 10 minutes straight. See how he does. Replace RC with JF for 10 minutes straight. See how he does. As ACTP said, these games mean nothing. It's the conference that matters. And, as we experienced last year, the last four is what counts.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Dec 6, 2016 15:12:40 GMT -5
RC & JF???--completely different games, I think. I don't relish the idea of JF bombing away from beyond the arc......
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Post by ncaam on Dec 6, 2016 15:59:46 GMT -5
RC does not play 40 minutes, thus coach Carmody has a combination he thinks works with RC out. JF and MZ perhaps soak up minutes RC gives up. CLS soaks up some of AT minutes when PB is running the show.
In his fourth year Matt Husek is beginning to produce. Maybe if we played him more as a freshman and sophomore he would have produced this much last year. Do we want to wait to have Jack Stevens produce in his senior year? Not sure whose minutes Tyrone Cohen will soak up once he comes back. But he needs to get some time on the floor also during this let's call it exhibition season. Just a thought.
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Post by rgs318 on Dec 6, 2016 16:07:11 GMT -5
Matt Husek started to produce a bit last year, but his development took time. Right now, our younger players are getting time and development in practice. It is not as though they are simply gathering splinters, The way to get minutes is to show in practice that they are deserved.
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