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Post by Tom on Jan 26, 2023 9:12:35 GMT -5
HC has completed nine of their 18 game conference schedule.
HC is 4-5 which currently puts them in 6th place, courtesy of the win at Navy currently giving HC a tie breaker over 4-5 Navy. 6th is better than 9th as projected by the experts. History tells us that at the end of the season, the middle of the pack is going to be a log jam. There will be all kinds of shuffling in those middle spots the last couple of games of the season. A very low bar, but getting to the quarter-finals for the first time in the Nelson era would be nice. Holding onto that 6th spot is a big deal. We all know from last year that a favored home seeding in that bottom four round is no guarantee of making the quarter finals.
With this roster, these guys are walking a tight rope with no margin of error. 42 percent FT shooting is not a path to the quarter finals. One man more than the minimum scholarship requirement and having guy(s) foul out is not a path the the quarter finals
Just some braindroppings from the half way point of the conference schedule
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 26, 2023 9:17:16 GMT -5
Pomeroy projects us to finish with a 7-11 PL record (which would be good for 8th).
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Post by hchoops on Jan 26, 2023 9:17:59 GMT -5
That 3-1 start seems like an aberration. Middle of the pack at the end looks like a far off goal.
Lehigh shot 49%. 42 of their 74 came in the paint. That is not good derense.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 26, 2023 9:24:22 GMT -5
Would going 4-5 the rest of the way be enough for Kit to bring Nelson back?
While I don't think so, Nelson's PL trajectory would look like: 2-16, 5-11, 7-11, 8-10.
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Post by Ignutz on Jan 26, 2023 9:26:50 GMT -5
Would going 4-5 the rest of the way be enough for Kit to bring Nelson back? While I don't think so, Nelson's PL trajectory would look like: 2-16, 5-11, 7-11, 8-10. Perish the thought!
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Post by hchoops on Jan 26, 2023 9:29:38 GMT -5
Would going 4-5 the rest of the way be enough for Kit to bring Nelson back? While I don't think so, Nelson's PL trajectory would look like: 2-16, 5-11, 7-11, 8-10. You are being kind by ignoring games played before the PL against an easy non conference schedule. Pomeroy ratings are a more realistic measure of Nelson’s tenure. Today we are 332.
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Post by Tom on Jan 26, 2023 9:33:17 GMT -5
I know I sound like a broken record about the PL tournament, but I think something positive has to happen there
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 26, 2023 9:33:18 GMT -5
Would going 4-5 the rest of the way be enough for Kit to bring Nelson back? While I don't think so, Nelson's PL trajectory would look like: 2-16, 5-11, 7-11, 8-10. You are being kind by ignoring games played before the PL against an easy non conference schedule. Pomeroy ratings are a more realistic measure of Nelson’s tenure. Today we are 334 The records above are only against PL teams, not non-conference. I agree with you, just playing the role of a contrarian who could say we've gotten better against our PL peers every season.
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Post by Ray on Jan 26, 2023 9:37:48 GMT -5
Would going 4-5 the rest of the way be enough for Kit to bring Nelson back? While I don't think so, Nelson's PL trajectory would look like: 2-16, 5-11, 7-11, 8-10. That trajectory tells one story, but you'd have to look at the trajectory of the roster and project what next year and beyond look like. Gates leaving, only one recruit currently signed for next year (two more spots opened during this season and not filled yet), Nelson's inability to effectively use the transfer portal/retain the players he does sign.
If you ask the question "would you reasonably expect the next step in the above trajectory to be a +.500 PL season next year?", based on the above, the answer has to be no.
And that's before we see whether anyone else from the current roster heads for the portal.
(I also think another 4-5 record in the back half-season is unlikely. We've played an "easy" league schedule, mostly in the sense that we've gotten fat on Bucknell twice already. We replace Bucknell and Lehigh with BU and Army in 2nd half.)
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Post by efg72 on Jan 26, 2023 9:38:26 GMT -5
Would going 4-5 the rest of the way be enough for Kit to bring Nelson back? While I don't think so, Nelson's PL trajectory would look like: 2-16, 5-11, 7-11, 8-10. Possibly, and especially if he has an additional year on the contract-, although I don't believe that is the case. But that trajectory is hardly inspiring, and if you add the OOC record to it one might find it depressing. On the current path it would take five or six more years to reach .500 for the season But one or two strong recruits could change the direction of the program. As Lent is around the corner, I am trying to offer a neutral response.to the question.
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Post by sader1970 on Jan 26, 2023 9:54:00 GMT -5
My understanding and believe it was publicly announced that he is working on a 5 year contract. He's in year 4 now, right? So, as we've discussed ad nauseam, if Kit & Vince should happen to part ways with Brett, they have to pony up another year of salary which is like fingernails scratching a chalkboard for me. Please God, and Kit, I don't care who or when the next coach comes in but DO.NOT.BE.STUPID and have a contract to pay some lousy coach a full contract pay-out if he stinks and gets fired after year 1, 2, 3. And, no, I don't give a hoot if "no other school does this." Break the friggin mold! Potential coach won't sign? go somewhere else, buddy.
Here's the thing when you compare Holy Cross, or any other team, to the rest of the Patriot League: Did the team in question (Holy Cross) improve or did the league regress? That's why as hoops and others point out, you can't look at the position in the PL in a vacuum and have to look at the OOC schedule and the various rankings and there we continue to do woefully.
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Post by WCHC Sports on Jan 26, 2023 10:00:06 GMT -5
Great point. Cursory attention to the PL on my part, but I feel like the league is "down" a bit... so our relatively-improved "success" there could be a false flag. Either way, being a sub-.500 team is not the goal. Winning one more game per season isn't good enough unless we're going from 18 to 19, 20, and 21 wins.
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Post by timholycross on Jan 26, 2023 10:08:04 GMT -5
Would going 4-5 the rest of the way be enough for Kit to bring Nelson back? While I don't think so, Nelson's PL trajectory would look like: 2-16, 5-11, 7-11, 8-10. Possibly, and especially if he has an additional year on the contract-, although I don't believe that is the case. But that trajectory is hardly inspiring, and if you add the OOC record to it one might find it depressing. On the current path it would take five or six more years to reach .500 for the season But one or two strong recruits could change the direction of the program. As Lent is around the corner, I am trying to offer a neutral response.to the question. Good time to interject our OOC opponents' records. Creighton Big East 11-8 Fordham A10 15-4 UIC MVC 9-13 Harvard Ivy 12-8 Northeastern CAA 8-11 Siena MAAC 13-7 Q MAAC 15-5 UNH AEast 8-10 Sacred Heart NE 11-11 Stonehill NE 9-14 CConn NE 5-16 A good PL team, which HC is not, should win 6 or 7 of those. HC didn't come close to that. A team like Colgate, probably 8 or 9 of them.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Jan 26, 2023 10:19:17 GMT -5
Currently, Lehigh is in 2nd place. Compare them to any of the HC/Bucknell teams of Willard/Flannery era (when both were top 100 teams). Not your father's PL.
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Post by sader1970 on Jan 26, 2023 10:41:59 GMT -5
Current PL standings:
SCHOOL PL OVERALL
Colgate 9-0 15-7
Lehigh 7-2 12-8
American 5-4 13-7
Army West Point 5-4 11-11
Lafayette 5-4 7-15
Navy 4-5 11-10
Holy Cross 4-5 7-15
Boston University 3-6 10-12
Loyola Maryland 2-7 7-15
Bucknell 1-8 8-14
No analysis done on all the other PL teams OOC schedule but it sure looks like Bucknell has fallen as far or farther than the Crusaders from their once lofty perch (did they pad their wins with a couple of D-2/D-3 teams like HC?). I was not impressed by Lehigh and, just me, I'm appalled that the once basketball dregs of the PL, Colgate, are now and have been in first place and no one close to them. To me, that is an indication not so much that they've improved so much as the rest of the league has gone under water. Army? Army is in 3rd place?!! BU? 3-6 in the Patriot League? No, the whole league has gotten worse, much worse. Of course, I feel the worst about how the Crusaders have just imploded.
[Edit: subtracting out the PL games, the OOC record for the league is 56-69 for a 44.8% winning percentage. Not sure how that compares to prior years nor how many of those wins, other than HC's 2, were against non-D-1 teams.]
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Post by nhteamer on Jan 26, 2023 11:03:35 GMT -5
A clear nadir for HC hoop enthusiasm.
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Post by hchoops on Jan 26, 2023 11:05:09 GMT -5
Let’s hope it is indeed the nadir Georgetown thought that its nadir was a few years ago
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Post by Tom on Jan 26, 2023 11:50:36 GMT -5
Would going 4-5 the rest of the way be enough for Kit to bring Nelson back? While I don't think so, Nelson's PL trajectory would look like: 2-16, 5-11, 7-11, 8-10. That trajectory tells one story, but you'd have to look at the trajectory of the roster and project what next year and beyond look like. Gates leaving, only one recruit currently signed for next year (two more spots opened during this season and not filled yet), Nelson's inability to effectively use the transfer portal/retain the players he does sign.
Not everyone has been a stellar success, but I would not label Gates, Dorsey, and Octave as ineffective use of transfer portal. When you're struggling to be a top 350 program, it's easy to pile on, but I do like to keep our criticism fair. And hey, to date we have retained four out of five people who transferred in. Considering the state of things around here, the inward transfer portal is one of our relative strengths
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Post by hchoops on Jan 26, 2023 11:54:34 GMT -5
That trajectory tells one story, but you'd have to look at the trajectory of the roster and project what next year and beyond look like. Gates leaving, only one recruit currently signed for next year (two more spots opened during this season and not filled yet), Nelson's inability to effectively use the transfer portal/retain the players he does sign.
Not everyone has been a stellar success, but I would not label Gates, Dorsey, and Octave as ineffective use of transfer portal. When you're struggling to be a top 350 program, it's easy to pile on, but I do like to keep our criticism fair. And hey, to date we have retained four out of five people who transferred in. Considering the state of things around here, the inward transfer portal is one of our relative strengths Of course, your unwritten corollary is the outward transfer portal
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Jan 26, 2023 12:00:22 GMT -5
Batch and Nugent (I believe) are a couple of good building blocks going forward, but I think CBN desperately needs to sign a couple of more before his year end chat with the AD.
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Post by HC92 on Jan 26, 2023 12:44:52 GMT -5
My understanding and believe it was publicly announced that he is working on a 5 year contract. He's in year 4 now, right? So, as we've discussed ad nauseam, if Kit & Vince should happen to part ways with Brett, they have to pony up another year of salary which is like fingernails scratching a chalkboard for me. Please God, and Kit, I don't care who or when the next coach comes in but DO.NOT.BE.STUPID and have a contract to pay some lousy coach a full contract pay-out if he stinks and gets fired after year 1, 2, 3. And, no, I don't give a hoot if "no other school does this." Break the friggin mold! Potential coach won't sign? go somewhere else, buddy. Here's the thing when you compare Holy Cross, or any other team, to the rest of the Patriot League: Did the team in question (Holy Cross) improve or did the league regress? That's why as hoops and others point out, you can't look at the position in the PL in a vacuum and have to look at the OOC schedule and the various rankings and there we continue to do woefully. I hear you and feel your pain about how these contracts work but no coach with a good job and a track record of success at any level is going to take a contract where the base salary is not guaranteed for at least 4 years. I think the realistic way to get where you want is to have a lower base salary that is guaranteed with a series of generous incentives tied to the performance of the team that could make the range of incomes from the highest paid to the lowest paid coach in the PL depending on performance. If we’re going the D3 route, we’d need the base to be more than whatever our guy is making currently. Then the incentives have the potential to make it a lot more. Maybe it’s 9 PL wins in Year 1 , 11 in Year 2 and 13 in year 3 that add $75K to the deal. Extra for playoff wins. I’m making this up but an incentive-laden deal seems like a possible path.
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Post by sader1970 on Jan 26, 2023 13:18:22 GMT -5
You aren’t far from where I was headed. But, I guarantee you if you do a carrot & stick contract, you will indeed attract very qualified candidates. Big, achievable incentives but, fall on your face, thanks for the memories. Again, not necessarily zero but 50%.
It absolutely CAN be done but you have to try, not simply “we’ve always done it that way.”
And, sorry, the basketball coach at Holy Cross should not make more than the football coach. That’s totally inequitable. The basketball coach should not be among the top paid employee at HC, especially when the results are disastrously poor.
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Post by trimster on Jan 26, 2023 13:48:34 GMT -5
Would going 4-5 the rest of the way be enough for Kit to bring Nelson back? While I don't think so, Nelson's PL trajectory would look like: 2-16, 5-11, 7-11, 8-10. That trajectory tells one story, but you'd have to look at the trajectory of the roster and project what next year and beyond look like. Gates leaving, only one recruit currently signed for next year (two more spots opened during this season and not filled yet), Nelson's inability to effectively use the transfer portal/retain the players he does sign.
If you ask the question "would you reasonably expect the next step in the above trajectory to be a +.500 PL season next year?", based on the above, the answer has to be no.
And that's before we see whether anyone else from the current roster heads for the portal.
(I also think another 4-5 record in the back half-season is unlikely. We've played an "easy" league schedule, mostly in the sense that we've gotten fat on Bucknell twice already. We replace Bucknell and Lehigh with BU and Army in 2nd half.)
Very good points. If a couple of dominoes fall the wrong way in the next 5-6 weeks, you are looking at a new coach almost starting from scratch. It is a very sobering thought.
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Post by Ray on Jan 26, 2023 16:13:16 GMT -5
And, sorry, the basketball coach at Holy Cross should not make more than the football coach. That’s totally inequitable. The basketball coach should not be among the top paid employee at HC, especially when the results are disastrously poor. If you mean, "based on his lousy track record, Brett Nelson should not be paid as much as 4-time PL champ Bob Chesney", I don't think anyone would disagree with you.
But, if you're speaking generically, I disagree. I think these positions should both be well-compensated. I had no problem with FCRW being well-compensated, he delivered the results.
And in the specific case of the basketball coach, the ability to generate revenue via NCAA tourney appearances is a power that no other coach on campus has, and its worth investing toward that goal.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Jan 26, 2023 16:34:40 GMT -5
Would going 4-5 the rest of the way be enough for Kit to bring Nelson back? While I don't think so, Nelson's PL trajectory would look like: 2-16, 5-11, 7-11, 8-10. Patriot League also seems to be much weaker top-to-bottom this year than its been for most of the last 10-12 years.
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