Post by efg72 on Apr 20, 2023 7:51:49 GMT -5
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STAN BECTON | NCAA.COM | APRIL 18, 2023
Way-too-early FCS tiers for every team entering the 2023 season
It's April and the first 2023 FCS kickoff isn't for four months, but it's never too early to take a look at what's to come in an exciting season ahead.
There will be 127 teams in FCS play this fall — not counting Kennesaw State and its FBS transition. That said, I've sorted all 127 teams into tiers from top to bottom, factoring in last season's success, potential and new, returning and departing talent.
Let's get into the tiers.
The step above the rest tier
South Dakota State
South Dakota State is a step above even the elite teams entering the 2023 season. The Jackrabbits should be a unanimous No. 1 preseason team after winning last season's FCS title.
Outside of a new coach, South Dakota State has few question marks. Its only major loss offensively is tight end Tucker Kraft, who missed a good portion of last season anyways. The Jacks lose two starters on their defensive line in Reece Winkleman and Caleb Sanders, but expect them to reload at the positions that rotate more often than not.
🏆: How South Dakota State won the 2022 FCS title
The Frisco-or-bust tier
North Dakota State
Montana State
William & Mary
These three teams should have their eyes set on lifting the trophy at the end of the year.
North Dakota State can never be counted out, even with numerous departures via graduation, the draft and the transfer portal.
Montana State will try to finally get over the hump after advancing to the semifinals and championship game the last two years behind what should be a dominant rushing game again.
William & Mary made the quarterfinals last year and returns a top-10 quarterback in Darius Wilson and the best pass-rushing duo in John Pius and Nate Lynn.
The potential-playoff-seeds tier
Holy Cross
North Carolina Central
Southeast Missouri State
Samford
Furman
Sacramento State
Idaho
New Hampshire
All the teams in this category could earn a top-eight seed in the playoffs. Holy Cross, Samford and Sacramento State were all seeds last year and advanced to the quarterfinal round. Holy Cross and Samford should be preseason favorites to win their conferences. Meanwhile, Sacramento State lost its head coach, running back and both of its quarterbacks. Yet, the Hornets should still contend in the Big Sky after winning the conference in each of the last two years.
Furman, Idaho, New Hampshire and Southeast Missouri State could also make pushes for seeds this year. Furman, Idaho and New Hampshire all won playoff games last season and should hover around the top 10. SEMO may have to run the table to overcome its strength of schedule, but the potential is there in the OVC.
North Carolina Central, while not a playoff candidate if the season is a success, should be far and away the favorite to win the MEAC and the 2023 Celebration Bowl behind star quarterback and Walter Payton Award candidate Davius Richard. The Eagles have the potential to run the table against FCS competition.
CHAMPIONS: How North Carolina Central won the 2022 Celebration Bowl
The playoff-contenders tier
This tier is full of teams that could make the playoffs, likely as an at-large or teams that could compete for conference titles in what have been one-bid leagues in past seasons. There are more teams in this tier than playoff spots, so some of these could be in the first-teams-out come playoff time. All of these have the potential to enter the top-25 throughout the season.
Southeastern Louisiana
UIW
Weber State
UC Davis
Montana
Chattanooga
Northern Iowa
North Dakota
Southern Illinois
UT Martin
Florida A&M
Southern
Delaware
Rhode Island
Gardner-Webb
Eastern Kentucky
Princeton
Yale
Starting with the two Southland teams, I expect UIW and Southeastern Louisiana to compete for the conference title yet again. UIW would be a tier higher but two straight seasons of a new coach and quarterback leave me concerned.
Elsewhere, you'll find a handful of Big Sky, MVFC and CAA teams. The top three conferences in the FCS almost always receive three to four bids to the playoffs, and while I don't see any of the teams in this tier contending for their conference crown, I definitely see them as at-large contenders.
Some teams could reach eight wins and contend for a conference title, but won't be participating in the playoffs. Florida A&M and Southern should be the favorites to win their divisions in the SWAC entering 2023. Princeton and Yale are the front-runners for the Ivy League title this year.
QB1: The top 10 returning FCS quarterbacks in 2023
The good-but-not-great tier
This tier has teams that should finish the season around the six to seven-win mark. It also has teams in conferences that aren't typically as strong and may win or fall just short of a title.
Jackson State
Illinois State
Austin Peay
Mercer
Elon
Richmond
Harvard
Penn
Youngstown State
Saint Francis (PA)
Howard
Merrimack
Morgan State
St. Thomas (MN)
Dayton
Davidson
Alabama State
Prairie View A&M
Fordham
The top NEC and Pioneer teams are in this tier, and while they could finish with more than seven wins, past performance in the postseason put them a tier below the other playoff contenders.
You'll find a bunch of HBCU teams in this tier, including two-time defending SWAC champion Jackson State. Gone are the days of Coach Prime, and he brought his son, the star quarterback. More players have left in the transfer portal. Those losses drop the Tigers from recent heights.
Fordham, Elon and Richmond are all teams that made the 2022 playoffs as at-larges that drop to this tier. Why? Because each team has a significant loss at quarterback.
CHAMPIONSHIPS: Schools with the most FCS national championships
The unproven potential tier
The teams in the year have a chance at being better than last season, leading to a surprise rise up conference standings. However, until they prove it on the field, they stay put.
Columbia
Villanova
Central Arkansas
Abilene Christian
Stephen F. Austin
Tarleton State
Alabama A&M
Tennessee State
Sacred Heart
Missouri State
Delaware State
South Dakota
Duquesne
South Carolina State
San Diego
Butler
Texas A&M-Commerce
ETSU
Northwestern State
Alcorn State
Texas Southern
Cal Poly
The meh tier
This tier features teams that won't be the worst teams in their conferences, but they won't contend either. Think of 4-5 win teams that are competitive in most games... for at least a quarter or two.
Lindenwood
Eastern Washington
Monmouth
Cornell
Dartmouth
Tennessee Tech
Stonehill
LIU
Lafayette
North Carolina A&T
Campbell
Albany
Maine
Towson
Valparaiso
Marist
Western Carolina
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
The Citadel
Nicholls
McNeese
Grambling State
Southern Utah
Utah Tech
Portland State
Bryant
Stony Brook
Brown
The bottom tier
After last season these teams round out the bottom of the tiers list. The good news is they can only go up from here.
VMI
Hampton
North Alabama
Houston Christian
Lamar
Wofford
Presbyterian
Morehead State
Stetson
Drake
Robert Morris
Charleston Southern
Idaho State
Colgate
Central Connecticut State
Wagner
Georgetown
Lehigh
Bucknell
Norfolk State
Indiana State
Western Illinois
Murray State
Eastern Illinois
Mississippi Valley State
Bethune-Cookman
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
🏈FCS FOOTBALL HISTORY🏈
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🥇 Awards: Walter Payton | Buck Buchanan | Jerry Rice
🤯 FCS-over-FBS upsets: All-time history | Upset blueprint
✊ HBCU: Championship history | Greatest individual players
🐐 Careers in review: Kupp | Wentz | Lance | Garappolo | Heinicke | Leonard | Watson
👀 Top-5 all-time players: North Dakota State | Montana | Eastern Washington | Harvard | Yale | Villanova | Delaware
⚔️ Rivalries: The Game | The Rivalry | Brawl of the Wild | Dakota Marker | Florida Classic | Bayou Classic | Oldest rivalries
🏟 STADIUMS: The 25 biggest FCS stadiums | The 10 oldest stadiums
😱 RECORDS: 7 unbreakable FCS records | The longest CFB field goal
Stan Becton joined NCAA.com in 2021 and has since served as an FCS, track and field, cross country and HBCU beat reporter. He has covered numerous NCAA championship events, including the FCS Championship, DI Track & Field Championships and Men's Frozen Four. Additionally, he covered the 2021 Celebration Bowl. Stan graduated from Carnegie Mellon University, earning a degree in Professional Writing and playing football as a five-year letterman. You can follow him on Twitter @stan_becton.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NCAA or its member institutions.
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