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Post by trimster on Dec 23, 2023 9:57:00 GMT -5
According to team rankings, HC scores 8.5 points per game from the charity stripe. Only two teams in all of D1 score less than that number. Interestingly, 4 of the bottom 5 are PL teams. I believe HC attempts about 12 per game. The leader in that category, Tulane, attempts 31 free throws per game.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 23, 2023 10:25:07 GMT -5
A long-standing issue, going back to the squishy-soft conflict avoidance of the Carmody teams.
Holy Cross FT/G rank
2023-24 360th 2022-23 357th 2021-22 241st 2020-21 288th 2019-20 346th 2018-19 350th 2017-18 343rd 2016-17 322nd 2015-16 270th
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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 23, 2023 10:46:04 GMT -5
As Ray has noted elsewhere, getting to the line frequently is one of Paulsen's mantras. Free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is one of Dean Oliver's "four factors" shown to correlate with successful play. An average D1 team's FTR is about 33% (one free throw attempt for every three field goal attempts). Unsurprisingly, we have been pretty terrible at this for almost a decade - thus far this year, 22% (ranked 357th).
Only two players this season have an FTR greater than 33% - Louth (36%) and Declan, with an eye-popping 95% (20 FTA/21 FGA) and 85% FT% to boot.
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Post by trimster on Dec 23, 2023 11:01:32 GMT -5
As Ray has noted elsewhere, getting to the line frequently is one of Paulsen's mantras. Free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is one of Dean Oliver's "four factors" shown to correlate with successful play. An average D1 team's FTR is about 33% (one free throw attempt for every three field goal attempts). Unsurprisingly, we have been pretty terrible at this for almost a decade - thus far this year, 22% (ranked 357th). Only two players this season have an FTR greater than 33% - Louth (36%) and Declan, with an eye-popping 95% (20 FTA/21 FGA) and 85% FT% to boot. Do you know the other 3 factors?
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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 23, 2023 11:01:53 GMT -5
Interestingly, Paulsen's teams have rarely been better than average in getting to the line.
Bucknell FTR 2008-09 319th 2009-10 252nd 2010-11 265th 2011-12 120th 2012-13 182nd 2013-14 340th 2014-15 89th
George Mason FTR 2015-16 234th 2016-17 67th 2017-18 227th 2018-19 146th 2019-20 130th 2020-21 231st
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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 23, 2023 11:03:24 GMT -5
As Ray has noted elsewhere, getting to the line frequently is one of Paulsen's mantras. Free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is one of Dean Oliver's "four factors" shown to correlate with successful play. An average D1 team's FTR is about 33% (one free throw attempt for every three field goal attempts). Unsurprisingly, we have been pretty terrible at this for almost a decade - thus far this year, 22% (ranked 357th). Only two players this season have an FTR greater than 33% - Louth (36%) and Declan, with an eye-popping 95% (20 FTA/21 FGA) and 85% FT% to boot. Do you know the other 3 factors? EFG%, TO%, OR% - actually eight factors, with their defensive counterparts (OppEFG%, OppTO%, DR%, OppFTR)
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Post by bison137 on Dec 23, 2023 11:49:20 GMT -5
As Ray has noted elsewhere, getting to the line frequently is one of Paulsen's mantras. Free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is one of Dean Oliver's "four factors" shown to correlate with successful play. An average D1 team's FTR is about 33% (one free throw attempt for every three field goal attempts). Unsurprisingly, we have been pretty terrible at this for almost a decade - thus far this year, 22% (ranked 357th). Only two players this season have an FTR greater than 33% - Louth (36%) and Declan, with an eye-popping 95% (20 FTA/21 FGA) and 85% FT% to boot. Paulsen said that at Bucknell also. But most years, Bucknell was in the bottom 30% of teams in terms of the ratio of free throws to field goal attempts. In his first three years, which included two years with Mike Muscala, they ranked about 280th in the nation on average.. And once he left, the FT attempts dropped off dramatically once again. In total five of his seven seasons at Bucknell saw the team below average in getting to the line. In his final year, however, they got to the line quite a bit with Chris Haas, Nana Foulland, and Zach Thomas all having a great ability to draw fouls.
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Post by hchoops on Dec 23, 2023 12:01:50 GMT -5
Just as in most statistics, the coach needs the right players to carry out his goals.
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Post by HC92 on Dec 23, 2023 12:03:57 GMT -5
I suspect we’re close to the bottom in points in the paint as well. If you’re not trying to score in the paint, you’re not going to get to the line very much. As hoops points out, need the right personnel if you want to score around the basket.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Dec 23, 2023 12:32:25 GMT -5
Free Throws--one of my favorite subjects, in regard to both FT shooting % and FTA/FGA. One of the key issues is that we give a lot of minutes to freshmen and freshmen seem to always have a hard time adjusting to the pace of the college game and thus commit more fouls than they draw. Here's where our guys stand to date, using Person Fouls as a surrogate for free throws
Player= Fouls Committed Per 40 Minutes/Fouls Drawn Per 40= Difference
AJ Wills= 1.9/3.5= +1.6, very unusual for a freshman Singleton= 2.3/1.2= (1.1) Williams= 3.5/1.0=(1.5) Ryan= 8.3/6,2=(2.1) Nugent= 3.5/1.1= (2.4)
It's the very rare freshman who draws more fouls than he commits--I didn't check every player but here are three who excelled
Devin Brown= 3.2/5.5= +2.3 Anthony Thompson= 3.7/5.1= +1.4 Justin Burrell= 2.3/3.7= +1.4
Even some of our recent elite players had difficulties as freshmen, but notice also how they improved over the years
Keith Simmons FR= 3.3/4.1= +0.8 SO= 3.3/3.8= +0.5 JR= 2.6/3.7= +1.1 SR= 2.5/5.2=+2.7
Kevin Hamilton FR=4.7/2.9=(1/8) SO=3.7/3.7=Even JR= 2.8/4.3=+1.5 SR= 2.9/6.1=+3.2
Torey Thomas FR=4.4/4.5=+0.1 SO= 2.6/4.3=+1.7 JR=2.9/4.1=+1.2 SR=2.9/5.3=+2.4
Dave Dudzinski FR=3.9/2.8=(1.1) SO=4.0/3.8=(0.2) JR=3.7/4.9=+1.2 SR=3.1/5.0=+1.9
Remember that Ralph said that the best thing about freshmen was that they became sophomores
Let's see how our freshmen (and the upper classmen as well) do in the conference season
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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 23, 2023 12:55:31 GMT -5
Milan Years, FTR Rank 2010-11. 239th 2011-12. 257th 2012-13. 315th 2013-14. 197th 2014-15. 234th Willard Years . . . 1999-00. 1st 2000-01. 1st 2001-02. 13th 2002-03. 54th 2003-04. 102nd
2004-05. 159th 2005-06. 68th 2006-07. 75th 2007-08. 63rd 2008-09. 155th
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Post by trimster on Dec 23, 2023 15:29:42 GMT -5
Milan Years, FTR Rank 2010-11. 239th 2011-12. 257th 2012-13. 315th 2013-14. 197th 2014-15. 234th Willard Years . . . 1999-00. 1st 2000-01. 1st 2001-02. 13th 2002-03. 54th 2003-04. 102nd
2004-05. 159th 2005-06. 68th 2006-07. 75th 2007-08. 63rd 2008-09. 155th Szatko, Sankes and Whearty. Monsters, especially the latter two.
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Post by hchoops on Dec 23, 2023 16:17:28 GMT -5
Add Curry for the two years
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Post by trimster on Dec 30, 2023 9:25:35 GMT -5
According to team rankings, we average just over 8 ppg from the charity strip. Only two teams in all of D1 men’s hoops average less. How do we only shoot 11 free throws against a weak D3 team?
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Post by rgs318 on Dec 30, 2023 10:02:25 GMT -5
If the question was serious, IMO the refs were letting a lot go for Elms with no calls. At one point a Blazer (great nickname BTW) was literally draped over the back of one of the HC players - no call.
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Post by trimster on Dec 30, 2023 10:16:55 GMT -5
If the question was serious, IMO the refs were letting a lot go for Elms with no calls. At one point a Blazer (great nickname BTW) was literally draped over the back of one of the HC players - no call. My question was very serious. HC had a decided height advantage and a quickness advantage and managed to get to the line only 11 times? If there was ever a game where HC should have attempted 20+ free throws, this was it. For whatever reason this team isn't very good at getting to the line.
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Post by rgs318 on Dec 30, 2023 10:23:01 GMT -5
If refs are not making obvious calls, that is not on the team. As a former ref, I know that there are times when officials lean in a particular direction - like trying to keep a game from getting too far out of hand. I believe I saw that at times against Elms.
Can HC do a better job of establishing a presence under the boards - and possibly drawing fouls? Yes, but that may be one lof the "foundational pieces" that HCDP spoke about in his interview.
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Post by trimster on Dec 30, 2023 10:44:33 GMT -5
If refs are not making obvious calls, that is not on the team. As a former ref, I know that there are times when officials lean in a particular direction - like trying to keep a game from getting too far out of hand. I believe I saw that at times against Elms. Can HC do a better job of establishing a presence under the boards - and possibly drawing fouls? Yes, but that may be one lof the "foundational pieces" that HCDP spoke about in his interview. Hopefully it is because many times free throws make the difference between winning and losing, not just in points scored but in rooting key players on the opponent's bench due to foul trouble.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Dec 30, 2023 10:58:27 GMT -5
One thing that we might have to take into consideration is - often times winning teams will get extra free throws if they are trying to run out the clock in the endgame, and the opponent has to foul. HC really hasn't had that opportunity this year (for quite a few years, for that matter).
Yesterday, it seemed like a lot of our made field goals were where there was no defender in range to foul (most of the threes). Louth got some of his points by simply jumping over guys before they had a chance to react.
Having said that, the only 2 guys who right now are even semi adept at drawing fouls are Octave and Ryan. It would be nice to get more freebies (and make them).
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Dec 30, 2023 11:56:12 GMT -5
Compare and contast HC to our upcoming opponent Bucknell:
HC has four players who draw under 2 fouls per 40 minutes and they play a lot
Player= Fouls Drawn per 40/Minutes played per game
Nugent= 1.0/27 Batchelder=1.5/25 Williams=1.0/22 Singleton-1.2/15
Bucknell has two players who draw under 2 fouls per 40 minutes but they not play a lot of minutes
Berger=1.3/13 Muller= 0.8/4
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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 30, 2023 13:27:36 GMT -5
One thing that we might have to take into consideration is - often times winning teams will get extra free throws if they are trying to run out the clock in the endgame, and the opponent has to foul. HC really hasn't had that opportunity this year (for quite a few years, for that matter). Holy Cross was 10-18 in Willard's first year - and led the country in free throw rate (and 8th in FT/G). We've been in the top two hundred once since he left
If fouling teams in the endgame were the problem, you would think we'd rank near the bottom in fouls per game - but we don't (ranked a respectable 116th this year). Most of the guys just don't seem to like drawing contact.
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