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Post by hc1998 on Jan 25, 2024 14:13:24 GMT -5
For Bonds (or for any other player) it’s interesting to me to look at the “similarity scores” that suggest what player is he most similar to through each age. Bonds ended up being most similar to Willie Mays, then Henry Aaron, then Babe Ruth. Did his career start out being similar to those all-time greats through his early seasons? Here’s the similar players for Bonds Thru age 22= Tom Brunansky Thru age 23= Jay Bruce Thru age 24= Jason Hayward All good players but not hofers. His production exploded at age 25. Yes we know that not all players careers have the same trajectory , but it really looks suspicious to me. Did he start the steroids at age 25 season? Compare to Hank Aaron- from ages 21 thru 27 his similarity score had Miguel Cabrera, a certain first ballot HOFer, as most similar each year I like the similarity scores, and this is an interesting analysis...but not completely fair. Some people follow a natural arc to their career, slowly getting better, then slowly declining while others show early promise that becomes unfulfilled, or at least never progresses, for whatever reason. When viewed in the totality of their careers, Brunansky, Bruce, and Hayward are not flattering comparisons, but through those ages, they also are not awful comparisons. Bruno at age 21 had a 5.1 WAR season, Bruce was 4.7 in his age 23 season, and by age 24 Hayward had a 6.4 WAR and 2 seasons of 5.5...not quite peak Bonds numbers, but some impressive seasons for early in their careers.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jan 25, 2024 15:02:11 GMT -5
For Bonds (or for any other player) it’s interesting to me to look at the “similarity scores” that suggest what player is he most similar to through each age. Bonds ended up being most similar to Willie Mays, then Henry Aaron, then Babe Ruth. Did his career start out being similar to those all-time greats through his early seasons? Here’s the similar players for Bonds Thru age 22= Tom Brunansk Thru age 23= Jay Bruce Thru age 24= Jason Hayward All good players but not hofers. His production exploded at age 25. Yes we know that not all players careers have the same trajectory , but it really looks suspicious to me. Did he start the steroids at age 25 season? Compare to Hank Aaron- from ages 21 thru 27 his similarity score had Miguel Cabrera, a certain first ballot HOFer, as most similar each year Ortiz didn't play enough-- wasn't good enough yet, I guess-- to qualify for any meaningful comparisons on Baseball Reference for his age 21, 22, and 23 seasons. Here are the players he best compares with over time: 24 = Casey Kotchman
25 = Mo Vaughn
26 = Nick Johnson 27 = Adam Laroche 28 = Tony Clark
Nobody to really break the bank for.
29 = Justin Morneau
30 = Mo Vaughn
31 = Carlos Delgado
32 = Jason Giambi
Oh, okay, that's a pretty solid jump at the top of his bell curve. And Giambi was on the sauce, too. Surely his numbers should start to taper off?
Ages 33 - 36 = Mark Teixeira (and Ortiz's stats would outpace Mark, even though he put up excellent numbers as a switch-hitter).
Age 37 = Carlos Delgado, again
Ages 38 - 40 = FRANK FREAKIN THOMAS ARE YOU KIDDING ME
So Ortiz's career was not an arc, but basically an arrow shot up and to the right. Even though his damn feet didn't work at the end of his career. So let's not BS each other. He's got more sauce in him than on my veal parm on Sundays. And I still think he's a Hall of Famer despite not being able to run, throw, or catch.
Ortiz was a very ordinary hitter his first few years. Then midway through his age 26 season (well into the career of a typical ball player) something clicked and he became a big hitter. Through the first 87 games he had 3 home runs and was batting .235 with .302 OBP and .385 slugging. He finished the season with 20 homers a .272 average with .339 OBP and ,500 slugging. He moved to the Red Sox and was a monster thereafter. It took a few years for the monster years to offset the early mundane years and make his career-to-date numbers similar to star players and eventually HOFers
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Jan 25, 2024 15:59:29 GMT -5
I remember Ortiz 2003 season. Even that year, I recall him getting off to a slow start home run-wise but he was hitting .300+ and driving in a lot of runs early in the season. There may have been a point in late May or early June where he had something like 3 HR and 40 RBI. Then in June he started hitting homers. And never looked back after that.
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