|
Post by dadominate on Nov 7, 2017 17:08:12 GMT -5
I sure hope we can avoid a Milan Brown and Sean Kearney season, and I think we will. 15. Cheers. We will avoid a FCMB 20 win season. Maybe next year. Cheers. most hope to avoid the first round pl tournament loss (often to lafayette) that marked the disappointing mb era. as for next year, revisiting the pl tournament championship that marked the beginning of the carmody era should be the goal.
|
|
|
Post by ericobeyyourthirst on Nov 7, 2017 17:08:37 GMT -5
I sure hope we can avoid a Milan Brown and Sean Kearney season, and I think we will. 15. Cheers. We will avoid a FCMB 20 win season. Maybe next year. Cheers. Playing in the CIT was so much fun that year, if my memory serves me right.
|
|
|
Post by WorcesterGray on Nov 7, 2017 17:09:29 GMT -5
- it seems most of think we will take a step forward this year . . . It's also clear that all but one poster is looking forward, done re-litigating the past, and not driving with their eyes glued to the rear-view mirror. Can't wait for Friday.
|
|
|
Post by dadominate on Nov 7, 2017 17:21:14 GMT -5
We will avoid a FCMB 20 win season. Maybe next year. Cheers. Playing in the CIT was so much fun that year, if my memory serves me right. Lol! Oh, the memories! Guess it was nice to play a few more games against mediocre teams that year, but I would take our unforgettable run to the big dance in carm’s first year over the 20 wins baby season and pl tourney flameout any day of the week. CIT/CBI are basically consolation prizes for a season that didn’t end well, and really not much of one at that. The NIT is a different story in my book, as at least there you can play some name programs and get a chance to play in madison square garden on ESPN.
|
|
|
Post by HC1843 on Nov 7, 2017 17:21:15 GMT -5
I sure hope we can avoid a Milan Brown and Sean Kearney season, and I think we will. 15. Cheers. We will avoid a FCMB 20 win season. Maybe next year. Cheers. I will comfort myself in having danced year 1 with our current coach for now. Excited about these recruits....I am sure you are too. Have a good night, 70. Cheerios.
|
|
|
Post by ncaam on Nov 7, 2017 17:52:49 GMT -5
We will avoid a FCMB 20 win season. Maybe next year. Cheers. Playing in the CIT was so much fun that year, if my memory serves me right. Would you like to see a CIT invite this year?
|
|
|
Post by Non Alum Dave on Nov 7, 2017 17:52:52 GMT -5
I like Matt Faw's chances of making the rookie team.
Game with Harvard will be interesting, in that we are in a similar situation that they faced last year, with the huge frosh class. We got them at just the right time - they really stepped it up as the year went on.
|
|
|
Post by WorcesterGray on Nov 7, 2017 19:45:31 GMT -5
Really liked what I saw of Faw the other night. Some nice inside-outside versatility at the offensive end, very active down low at the defensive end. Any chance he can add 10-15 lbs of muscle in the next 72 hours?
|
|
|
Post by sader1970 on Nov 7, 2017 23:03:23 GMT -5
Not content to just go out on a limb with overall guesses, I'm going far out on the branch to pick specific wins with my purple-colored glasses firmly on my nose. I am showing my usual overly optimistic view of Holy Cross athletics, so you realists can basically be safe to cut my number of wins in half and you pessimists, cut them by 75%.
Below I have highlighted my predicted wins in purple.
at Sacred Heart (W) (a close win, just to whet our appetites) Harvard (L) (Amaker's revenge) at Rhode Island (L) (onw of the best teams we will play all year, on their home court) at Fairleigh Dickinson (W) Albany (W) (our first home win for the frosh, we don't count Assumption) Manhattan (W) (we'll travel better and besides, Holy Cross was founded for good Irish lads, though in the south, not Northern Ireland) La Salle or Towson (L) (it'll catch up to us) at Massachusetts (L) (away game and UMass must be good, right?) New Hampshire (W) (we beat them in football, this should be a piece of cake) Iona (W) (Ruland isn't with them anymore, right? And neither is Proctor?) at Siena (L) (the curse of McCryBaby) Colgate * (W) (payback for the football debacle) at Lafayette * (L) (the frosh first loooong bus ride to the Lehigh Valley) at Lehigh * (L) (presumably staying in Pa for the holiday break but it is Lehigh, afterall, the creme de la creme of the league) Loyola (Md.) * (W) (c'mon, how good can a Jesuit school be?) at Navy * (W) (our frosh have gained experience by now) Boston University * (L) (we'll never come close to winning the Turnpike Trophy) Army West Point * (W) (they may come at us with human waves of players but ours are better quality) at Bucknell * (L) (wish it was a win but this is a bridge too far) at American * (W) (nah, they aren't beating us this year) Lafayette * (W) (Fran O puts it together) Lehigh * (L) (probably closer than the first game but still not enough in the tank) at Loyola (Md.) * (W) (we have their number this year) Navy * (W) (we are still better and now we're on our home court) at Boston University * (L) (maybe an upset if our young stars have truly lived up to their press clippings) at Army West Point * (L) (over-confidence on our part. Happens in at least one game every year) Bucknell * (L) (a possible upset but odds too long to predict a "W") American * (W) (we've got their number) at Colgate * (W) (we're on a roll by now)
Patriot League Tournament
First Round (W) (guessing with 10-8 record in conference we get a 5 seed, have to play this round but against a weak opponent) Quarterfinals (L) (now we have to play a much higher seeded team and the string runs out) Semfinals (DNP) Championship Game (DNP)
So: OOC: 6-5 PL: 10-8 PL Tournament: 1-1 Overall 17-14
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 7, 2017 23:40:57 GMT -5
Nicely done--very impressive narrative
|
|
|
Post by bison137 on Nov 7, 2017 23:54:51 GMT -5
Patriot League Tournament First Round (W) (guessing with 10-8 record in conference we get a 5 seed, have to play this round but against a weak opponent)Quarterfinals (L) (now we have to play a much higher seeded team and the string runs out) Semfinals (DNP) Championship Game (DNP) With a 5th place finish, there would be no 1st round game. Only seeds 7-10 play the first round. With a 10-8 record, there is a good chance HC would get a 4 seed and host a quarterfinal game with the 5 seed.
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 8, 2017 0:32:50 GMT -5
Bison137: please let us know your prediction for HC wins. We always appreciate your insights
|
|
|
Post by sader1970 on Nov 8, 2017 6:22:33 GMT -5
Feel free to slide my tournament predictions down to quarters and semis, then. Anyone who would predict a game by game result with so many variables is obviously a history major and retired with too many other things to do and obviously put this out there for grins and giggles. If the prediction turns into anything remotely like accurate it will be due to the descent of the Holy Spirit (that's a reference for the few practicing Catholics on the board).
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 8, 2017 8:51:45 GMT -5
Feel free to slide my tournament predictions down to quarters and semis, then. Anyone who would predict a game by game result with so many variables is obviously a history major and retired with too many other things to do and obviously put this out there for grins and giggles. If the prediction turns into anything remotely like accurate it will be due to the descent of the Holy Spirit (that's a reference for the few practicing Catholics on the board). Don't be so pessimistic....
|
|
|
Post by Tom on Nov 8, 2017 9:25:04 GMT -5
Kind of picking on sader1970, but I see in conference you have HC sweeping 4 teams and splitting home and home with 2 others. Not unreasonable. I think it would almost bode better for the team to lose an early home conference game and then come back and beat them 2nd time around on the road. It's a hard thing to do, but would be concrete evidence that the guys are growing as the season progresses.
|
|
|
Post by ericobeyyourthirst on Nov 8, 2017 9:36:32 GMT -5
Playing in the CIT was so much fun that year, if my memory serves me right. Would you like to see a CIT invite this year? I'm a Boston fan - all I care about is championships.
|
|
|
Post by rgs318 on Nov 8, 2017 10:14:10 GMT -5
There is a chance here for a new HC/Crossports slogan..."The few, the proud...the CATHOLICS - "practicing" until we get it right!" As one in that category, I kind of like it and he chip on the shoulder attitude it could represent.
|
|
|
Post by sader1970 on Nov 8, 2017 10:17:49 GMT -5
Don't worry, Tom, I can take the heat. I am not using logic here (obviously) nor a MoneyBall algorithm, but I have seen too many Crusader teams win games when they should lose and lose games when they should win. Yes, one would logically think that a team loaded with freshmen will do better as they gain experience but my gut tells me that this will not be a linear progression.
I throw down the gauntlet for any other posters to pick individual game results. Look, there is no money on the line here, just an exercise in fun.
|
|
|
Post by Tom on Nov 8, 2017 12:52:24 GMT -5
Playing in the CIT was so much fun that year, if my memory serves me right. Would you like to see a CIT invite this year? When I decide to be courteous enough to participate, I drive pollsters crazy because I answer questions how I think they should be answered, not always giving a yes or no to what they want to be a yes or no question or something that fits in a neat little box I would view a CIT invite the same way I did back in 2014. Looking at the big picture it would be a decent stepping stone and evidence of progress. Back in 2014 there was only one senior on the team, albeit a very good one in Dave Dudzinski. A solid junior class featuring a kid who started as a freshman, was an unprecedented sophomore captain, and would wind up in the 1000 point club paired with an exciting player who appeared to have all the tools and who would wind up in the 1000 point club and a borderline NBA player. Also some promising freshman, including a starter who made all rookie team and a big guy named Alexander who I was pretty high on. The team finally made it to the league semi's after going 0 fer throughout the coach's tenure. It was another chance to get these kids in a do or die game. It was a sign things were finally beginning to move forward and there might be a light at the end of the tunnel. It would be INCONCEIVABLE that following year didn't at least get the team to the finals. They were poised. It was their year. Flash forward to now. No senior class. Solid juniors. Freshman with hype (I'll be disappointed if none make all -rookie team). Assuming HC needs almost 20 wins and a top half league finish and a trip to the semis to get the invite, I would say this was good progress and a stepping stone to a brighter future. Once again it would be INCONCEIVABLE for the 2019 Crusaders not to be better than this year's edition. Like 2015, any step backwards, never mind a big one, would be a monumental disaster. If HC earns a CIT bid by being somewhere near the criteria I set, ya, I guess I'd be happy. If they plateau'd and did the exact same thing next season, I would be unhappy with an unacceptably poor season. When pollsters tell me that I need to give an answer that fits in the little box, I respond that it's too bad they didn't have a little box that best fits my opinion and my answer stands as is Aren't you glad you asked
|
|
|
Post by sader81 on Nov 8, 2017 15:31:30 GMT -5
I agree, Tom. Playing in any post season tourney this year would be a positive!
|
|
|
Post by bison137 on Nov 9, 2017 20:45:31 GMT -5
Bison137: please let us know your prediction for HC wins. We always appreciate your insights OK, you asked for it, so here it is. 4 OOC wins 7 PL wins 1 tournament win 12 Total (12-19) Might be too pessimistic. We shall see.
|
|
|
Post by hc6774 on Nov 10, 2017 7:52:20 GMT -5
Basically the same as bison, 12 wins; 8 in the PL
|
|
|
Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 10, 2017 9:42:49 GMT -5
It's pretty clear that the season revolves around the freshmen: if they're better (talented, ready to contribute) than the "experts" think, and improving as the year progresses, we can do a lot better than the 7th-8th-9th place finishes that some of the annuals project. Of course, we know that they put little effort into their analysis of the PL teams and others (Ken Pomeroy, for example) may put a lot of effort into their work but it's highly mathematical and algorithmic ("multiply the percentage of returning points by the average age of the players and divide by.....). I think the freshmen are going to be strong contributors, not just because some of them had good stats in an exhibition game against a weak D-2 team, but because of what I've seen on their highlight reels (yes they're highlights and they never miss a shot, but you can see form and athleticism and other factors) and the reports that I've heard from you closer and more expert observers. So, here's my forecast:
5-6 Out of Conference. I came up with 4.9 wins (low of 15% chance at URI to a high of 75% chance versus UNH at home). One key is that I see 6 games where I give us a 40% to 55% chance of winning. So coin flipping would suggest we'd win 2 to 4 of those games. I'd really like to see a win in Ireland
9-9 Patriot League. I came up with 9 wins, with a low of a 15% chance to win at Bucknell to a high of an 80% chance to beat Lafayette and American University at the Hart Center. Playing 5 home games in the second half of the season, when the freshmen should have improved over the early part of the season (unless they hit that "freshman wall" that some see) is a plus.
1-1 Patriot League Tournament
15 Wins Total
|
|
|
Post by rgs318 on Nov 10, 2017 9:51:32 GMT -5
Just a quick reminder that the poll locks at 6:00PM today, so be sure to make your prediction before then. GO CROSS!
|
|
|
Post by hc6774 on Nov 10, 2017 10:15:43 GMT -5
It's pretty clear that the season revolves around the freshmen: if they're better (talented, ready to contribute) than the "experts" think, and improving as the year progresses, we can do a lot better than the 7th-8th-9th place finishes that some of the annuals project. Of course, we know that they put little effort into their analysis of the PL teams and others (Ken Pomeroy, for example) may put a lot of effort into their work but it's highly mathematical and algorithmic ("multiply the percentage of returning points by the average age of the players and divide by.....). I pay attention to the PL preseason coaches poll... they know league/us best and presumably have a better idea of the frosh talent coming into the league. I chose 8 PL wins and consider matching last year's 9 would be a considerable achievement.
|
|