Saturday, 01/20/2018, PL Basketball, You PIck...

Holy Cross @ Bucknell (going with my head, not my heart)

Lehigh @ Army (HC showed that Army's long-range artillery is sometimes not enough)


Loyola @ Colgate (it's in Hamilton - 'nuf said)


Boston Univ. @ Navy (I see this as a toss up and give the edge to the home team)


Lafayette @ American (neither team good and both should lose  )

BUCKNELL

LEHIGH

LOYOLA

BU

LAFAYETTE

Holy Cross
Lehigh
Colgate
Navy
Lafayette

Bucknell
Lehigh
Colgate
BU
American

Bucknell
Army West Point
Colgate
Navy
American

HC
Army
Colgate
Navy
American

Bucknell
Army
Colgate
BU
American

Feeling like a home cooking weekend ...

Bucknell
Army
Colgate
Navy
American

Holy Cross
Army
Colgate
Boston Univ.
American

I take a look at my analysis of the last set of games and cringe, but I'll venture forth one more time. This is a humbling game


Bucknell-- Bison have a stifling defense holding PL opponents to 43% on twos and 31% on threes. So Bucknell can win even if its own shooting is off, which it has been as Bison hitting 32% for #9 in PL on threes. Bison rely more on twos and have been solid there. Bison also make very frequent trips to the line and are very good free throw shooters. Bison amazing second half surges are well-documented on this board so HC better hope for an unlikely 12 point lead at halftime. Kimbal MacKenzie is back for Bison and has taken Jimmy Sotos's minutes. Sotos, a freshman, looks to be a good player but his production had fallen off after a great start to the season. MacK is a proven veteran.

Army-- Lehigh is 1-7 when opponents shoot 56% (eff fg pctg) or better and 7-3 otherwise. Army does shoot better at home--as most teams do. Tejada and Andree have bee hitting threes for Lehigh in PL games--Andree's worst game was 4/9 versus Navy. Army, of course, relies on three point shooting and while Cadets/Knights have fallen off a bit in PL play they are still at 39% fg pctg on threes . Let's figure on a good shooting game for a win at home.

Colgate-- Loyola is 1-13 when Greyhounds shoot 53% or worse. On defense Loy is 2-12 when opponents shoot better than 45% and Colgate has done that all but 3 games. So, if you look at those stats you ask what are the chances that Loyola, on the road, can shoot better than 53% while holding opponents under 45%. Loyola's three point shooting has improved a lot in PL play as they've made 1/3 or better in every game (in fact, exactly 1/3 in 4 of them). Colgate had been a very, very good shooting team but has hit a really bad patch and is #10 in the PL in effective FG percentage (does this contradict my earlier comments??). Rayman and Burns have been struggling. Key to a Colgate win may be that Loyola commits a tremendous number of fouls and Colgate is good at the line.

Boston University-- I don't see how BU could have lost at home by 11 to American U, but Terriers did as they had 21 turnovers which negated a 34-25 rebounding advantage. BU shot poorly and AU had one of its better shooting games. IN PL play BU has #1 offense and #2 defense (although well behind Bucknell) per KenPom so I am going to take a chance on BU winning on the road against a better team than they lost to at home last outing....

American U- I don't like either team here but American has won 2 of last 3, including that improbable victory in Boston. Freshman Sam Iorio has been playing well rebounding and scoring big in some games. Laf has lost the last four and I'll go with AU at home

Air Force cancelling their games. Navy will play all events it has scheduled today. Unsure about Army it appears.

www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22159896/air-force-falcons-cancel-games-due-government-shutdown