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Post by rickii on Mar 18, 2020 11:34:18 GMT -5
Obviously it's going to be very bad for all schools....
Maybe pp can repost some of the values as of last fiscal year.
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Post by crossbball13 on Mar 18, 2020 12:11:16 GMT -5
Isn’t HC surprisingly unexposed to the stock market relative to its peers?
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Post by rgs318 on Mar 18, 2020 12:20:30 GMT -5
That is the reason IMHO for the lower return over the last couple of years (compared to other colleges). We moved into a more secure balance of investments and so, if it was done correctly, should offer some protection.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Mar 18, 2020 14:22:04 GMT -5
Obviously it's going to be very bad for all schools....
Maybe pp can repost some of the values as of last fiscal year. As of June 30, 2019, the endowment was invested as follows: $55 million in cash, short-term investments, fixed income $120 million in domestic equities $49 million in emerging markets equities $179 million in global equities $62 million in absolute return funds, global $167 million in "opportunistic" absolute return funds (I am not sophisticated enough to understand an opportunistic absolute return.) $127 million in private equity $55 million in real assets + a few other bits and pieces: split interest, etc.
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Post by rickii on Mar 18, 2020 14:53:02 GMT -5
Obviously it's going to be very bad for all schools....
Maybe pp can repost some of the values as of last fiscal year. As of June 30, 2019, the endowment was invested as follows: $55 million in cash, short-term investments, fixed income $120 million in domestic equities $49 million in emerging markets equities $179 million in global equities $62 million in absolute return funds, global $167 million in "opportunistic" absolute return funds (I am not sophisticated enough to understand an opportunistic absolute return.) $127 million in private equity $55 million in real assets + a few other bits and pieces: split interest, etc. Highlighted = 90% chance these have been wacked
absolute return funds = aka Hedge Funds....most very risky NOT easily liquid
private equity = aka Private Placements....not open to general public and NOT liquid
real assets = probably commercial real estate obviously NOT liquid
Admittedly a brief synopsis.
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Post by longsuffering on Mar 18, 2020 15:23:46 GMT -5
A brief but lethal synopsis. Thanks.
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Post by longsuffering on Mar 18, 2020 15:37:05 GMT -5
How nimble can the managers be with the listed stocks?
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Post by longsuffering on Mar 18, 2020 15:38:25 GMT -5
Very light on bonds.
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Post by sarasota on Mar 18, 2020 18:32:52 GMT -5
It's difficult to make significant changes "quickly" in portfolios of that size.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Mar 19, 2020 7:06:00 GMT -5
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Post by rickii on Mar 19, 2020 8:13:19 GMT -5
How nimble can the managers be with the listed stocks? Nimble ? Not sure what you mean.
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Post by rickii on Mar 19, 2020 8:18:10 GMT -5
It's difficult to make significant changes "quickly" in portfolios of that size. Yes and no sota….depends on what's being sold, how much and at what price.
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Post by rickii on Mar 19, 2020 8:26:10 GMT -5
There are hundreds of Hedge funds....
A lot of time between last June and 4-5 weeks ago and likely the % owned in the top 4 classes has changed....hopefully dramatically.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Mar 22, 2020 9:36:21 GMT -5
Typically US government bonds are considered a safe haven during times of economic turmoil. I wonder if that will end up being the case this time around, with the federal government prepared to print $2 trillion in stimulus money alongside zero interest rates. Very little attention has been paid to the fact that debt has continued to rise since the election of Donald Trump.
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Post by rgs318 on Mar 22, 2020 10:00:40 GMT -5
Just a reminder, it was rising long before that. At least this debt has some targeted benefits for those who need them, not just for some "bridge to nowhere" to get votes for a politician.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Mar 22, 2020 10:50:13 GMT -5
Typically US government bonds are considered a safe haven during times of economic turmoil. I wonder if that will end up being the case this time around, with the federal government prepared to print $2 trillion in stimulus money alongside zero interest rates. Very little attention has been paid to the fact that debt has continued to rise since the election of Donald Trump. There are a few people who pay attention.. www.cbo.gov/publication/56073Much has changed (that's an understatement) since the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) wrote this two months ago. The deficit for fiscal year 2020 will be substantially higher because the government is spending hundreds of billions between now and June 30 to address the health and economic impacts of the corona virus. Government revenues will be down sharply because of the 2020 Recession. Over the next 13 weeks, and depending on how fast money goes out the door, the deficit for 2020 could possibly increase by $1 trillion, with the projected deficit for fiscal year 2021 also being sharply higher. Deficits = long-term debt. The question becomes who will finance this increase in debt levels? Foreign governments and foreign individuals currently hold about 40 percent of U.S. government debt. About 25 percent is held by the government itself, mostly the Social Security trust funds. Long-term, intra-governmental holdings of U.S. government debt will decline markedly because the trust funds are running out of surpluses, and can't buy debt. For the U.S. government not to become increasingly indebted to foreign governments and foreign nationals, Americans will; need to invest much more of their money in government bonds. Whether they will do so is an open question. For an overview of the debt: www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124
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Post by sarasota on Mar 22, 2020 11:52:26 GMT -5
On the Federal level, deficit does not necessarily lead to debt.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Mar 22, 2020 12:09:33 GMT -5
On the Federal level, deficit does not necessarily lead to debt. Oops, I meant to hit quote. And what does it lead to on a balance sheet, other than debt?
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Post by sarasota on Mar 22, 2020 16:42:11 GMT -5
Oops, I meant to hit quote. And what does it lead to on a balance sheet, other than debt? Imagine Fed debt at 90% of GDP or a huge percentage of federal budget spent on servicing the debt. Obviously, governments unlike individuals can print money. Think of disastrous inflation in Argentina in the late 20th century or Germany after WWI. Right now, we all need to focus on health. Stay healthy. bingo. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is not on the Government's balance sheet. Now you know the reason......
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Mar 22, 2020 16:43:54 GMT -5
Oops, I meant to hit quote. And what does it lead to on a balance sheet, other than debt? Imagine Fed debt at 90% of GDP or a huge percentage of federal budget spent on servicing the debt. Obviously, governments unlike individuals can print money. Think of disastrous inflation in Argentina in the late 20th century or Germany after WWI. Right now, we all need to focus on health. Stay healthy. The US dollar's status as the world reserve currency has allowed us to engage in reckless monetary policy without really seeing the chickens come home to roost like they have in Weimar Germany, Argentina or Zimbabwe. The rest of the world has continued to flock to the dollar in times of uncertainty, meaning that we are able to export most of our inflation abroad. Let's see how long that lasts. Whenever the music stops, it will be ugly.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Mar 22, 2020 18:00:59 GMT -5
Imagine Fed debt at 90% of GDP or a huge percentage of federal budget spent on servicing the debt. Obviously, governments unlike individuals can print money. Think of disastrous inflation in Argentina in the late 20th century or Germany after WWI. Right now, we all need to focus on health. Stay healthy. bingo. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is not on the Government's balance sheet. Now you know the reason...... Sorry, no bingo. The Fed's balance sheet includes $2.5 trillion of Federal debt held by the Fed. Interest on this debt, paid by Treasury, is collected by the Fed. The interest paid to the Fed is then turned back to the Treasury, to be classified as revenue (receipts). Its a circular transaction that does not reduce the total amount of debt. As revenue, it would reduce the size of the annual deficit, the remaining deficit (expenses - revenue = deficit) would add to total debt. Way back in the final years of Clinton, the Federal government began running surpluses. The initial plan, premised on these surpluses continuing, was to pay down the Federal debt. The chairman of the Fed objected, arguing that no/little Federal debt would hamper his ability to fashion economic policy. I never did quite understand the basis for that claim, and thought it untested speculation. In any event, rather than argue with the chairman, the Executive branch set up an escrow account for the social insurance trust funds, and planned on putting the government's surplus revenue into that account. This would be drawn down in the future by Social Security and Medicare as the trust funds' reserves became depleted mid 21st Century. The Bush43 tax cuts ended the prospect of continuing surpluses, as politicians once again fell for the seductive lure of Arthur Laffer and his curve. IMO, Laffer has done more long-term economic damage to the United States than anyone I know.
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Post by rgs318 on Mar 22, 2020 19:39:39 GMT -5
Pak, NO BINGO??? How on earth with our Catholic Churches survive?
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Mar 22, 2020 20:06:26 GMT -5
While I'm not going to discredit all economic theory to which Art Laffer lays claim, PP you might enjoy the following clip from CNBC which was filmed as I was moving into Holy Cross as a freshman.
Laffer gets absolutely OWNED here by Peter Schiff, CEO and founder of EuroPacific Capital.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Mar 22, 2020 20:08:56 GMT -5
Pak, NO BINGO??? How on earth with our Catholic Churches survive? A casualty of the virus. Look at it this way: a large gathering of old people, many with pre-existing conditions. Triple whammy: age, compromised health, despair at not winning. ______________________ Have the NJ papers had anything more on that family from Freehold who were affected so terribly? Last I read, mother and three of her children had died. Two other children were on life support. Surviving sibling is so far unaffected. A good friend of the family, Irish name (Brennan), also succumbed to the virus. The family and Brennan had long been associated with horse racing. Given Brennan's death, that reduces the possibility of a genetic pre-disposition. So I wonder whether perhaps they had previously been infected with an equine disease that damaged their lungs, or were exposed to certain chemicals used on the track or in the stables.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Mar 22, 2020 20:35:35 GMT -5
While I'm not going to discredit all economic theory to which Art Laffer lays claim, PP you might enjoy the following clip from CNBC which was filmed as I was moving into Holy Cross as a freshman. Laffer gets absolutely OWNED here by Peter Schiff, CEO and founder of EuroPacific Capital. This is my favorite FRED chart. Labor's share of business income, index value. But basically, owners are getting richer at the expense of their employees. It will be interesting to see if labor can hold onto its share after the 2020 Recession. If not, income inequality will go up, and AOC will go ballistic. Two other charts relative to the Schiff-Laffer discussion, which occurred about a year before the start of the Great recession. Presently, in very good shape. Not in good shape in 2007. To Schiff's point back in 2007 that foreigner's were financing U.S. debt.
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