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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 25, 2021 20:14:31 GMT -5
Several posters have asked this question during games. I thought it might be interesting to set up a separate thread on the subject to discuss play on the floor as we try to decipher the rules for who plays whom in the playoffs.
I'll start by offering some stats on shooting because, after all, "effective field goal percentage" has the highest correlation to offensive and defensive efficiency,
Clever guy that I am I divided the season into first 8 games and last 8 games, The disclaimer of course is that we faced different opponents at different venues between the halves. This is a basketball discussion not a precise chemistry experiment.
First 8 Games
Holy Cross
165/327 on twos= .505 50/151 on threes= .331 Eff Fg Pctg= ,502
Opponents
170/324 on twos= .523 64/169 on threes= .379 Eff Fg Pctg= .540
Latest 8 Games
Holy Cross
147/312 on twos= .471 61/161 on threes= .379 Eff Fg Pctg= .504
Opponents
156/302 on twos= .517 46/139 on threes= .331 Eff Fg Pctg= .510
Observations--second 8 games versus first 8 games
Holy Cross's two point shooting percentage declined HC's three point shooting improved significantly (Martindale a big factor) HC's Effective field goal percentage remained about the same
Opponents two point percentage declined a little Opponents three point percentage declined by the same increment that HC's improved Opponents effective field goal percentage declined meaningfully
NET NET
In the first 8 games opponents took 15 more FG attempts than HC and made 19 more field goals In the last 8 games Holy Cross took 32 more FG attempts than opponents and made 4 more field goals
I'll look at free throws in a bit
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Post by hchoops on Feb 25, 2021 21:21:24 GMT -5
Good idea, Ky G. W-L First 8- 2-6 Last 8–3-5
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 25, 2021 22:26:28 GMT -5
We see a different story on free throws
First 8 Games
Holy Cross 90/138= .652
Opponents 109/160= .681
Thus our opponents took 22 more free throws and made 19 more
Latest 8 Games
Holy Cross
83/110= .754 Impressive improvement--AB shot better than in his dismal start and RJ never misses
Opponents
126/169= ,746
Thus our opponents in the latest 8 games took 59 more free throws and made 43 more= 5 points per game advantage is very hard to overcome
NOTE:
1st 8 games Gerrale Gates was 40/54= .741, excellent and taking 7 free throws per game Last 8 games Gerrale Gates was 12/16= .750 but even accounting for 2 missed games he is not getting to the line often enough, under 3 FTA/game
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 26, 2021 1:22:22 GMT -5
Okay one more: turnovers
First 8 Games
Holy Cross 108 Opponents 98
Latest 8 Games
Holy Cross 94 Opponents 100
So we saw a swing of 16 turnovers in our favor from first 8 games to latest 8 games
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Post by hc6774 on Feb 26, 2021 7:37:31 GMT -5
We see a different story on free throws First 8 Games Holy Cross90/138= .652 Opponents109/160= .681 Thus our opponents took 22 more free throws and made 19 more Latest 8 GamesHoly Cross
83/110= .754 Impressive improvement--AB shot better than in his dismal start and RJ never misses Opponents126/169= ,746 Thus our opponents in the latest 8 games took 59 more free throws and made 43 more= 5 points per game advantage is very hard to overcome NOTE: 1st 8 games Gerrale Gates was 40/54= .741, excellent and taking 7 free throws per game Last 8 games Gerrale Gates was 12/16= .750 but even accounting for 2 missed games he is not getting to the line often enough, under 3 FTA/game split season stats on the 4 freshmen who played significant minutes would be of interest... maybe group RJ & Marti vs B&B
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Post by possum on Feb 26, 2021 8:20:22 GMT -5
It's interesting to breakdown AB's season in 3 segments. The first four games he was on fire shooting 58% on two's and a crazy 63% on three's. We won 2 of those 4 games. In the next 6 games he shot 36% on two's and 24% on three's we lost all 6 games. In the last 6 games he picked up the pace again shooting 55% on two's and 48% on three's, we won 3 of those 6 games. Overall in our wins AB averaged 21 PPG vs 14 in the losses. Should note in the mid season 6 game losing streak 4 of the games were against Colgate who gave him a real rough time as he averaged less than 10 points a game. Tucker Richardson appears to be a tough matchup for him.
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bpob55
Crusader Century Club
Posts: 114
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Post by bpob55 on Feb 26, 2021 9:00:54 GMT -5
I also think there is something to be said for how well he have played without Gates. At the start of the season, we would have gotten blown out of the gym without him. That shows a big time improvement in my eyes.
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Post by hchoops on Feb 26, 2021 9:26:09 GMT -5
We would not have been competitive in any game of the first 14 without a healthy Gates. To say how well we have played without Gates is by a sample of two, including a game that BU was disinterested in playing.
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Post by timholycross on Feb 26, 2021 9:33:14 GMT -5
I think if you look at who got brought in as a group, the 8 young men brought in were a mixed bag; some exceeded expectations, some met them, and a couple didn't for various reasons.
But even the ones that didn't show that much: I think one would agree we'd rather have them as depth than the lesser talented kids that left the program in 2019-20.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 26, 2021 10:51:12 GMT -5
split season stats on the 4 freshmen who played significant minutes would be of interest... maybe group RJ & Marti vs B&B You're a mind reader-I was planning on doing just that and I'll get to it before too long
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Post by cmo on Feb 26, 2021 10:51:47 GMT -5
We would not have been competitive in any game of the first 14 without a healthy Gates. To say how well we have played without Gates is by a sample of two, including a game that BU was disinterested in playing. why disinterested?
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Post by possum on Feb 26, 2021 13:25:57 GMT -5
My take on the freshmen without really looking at the numbers: RJ has gotten big minutes from the start and has played pretty well throughout. He should be a 4 year starter who will probably improve in all facets of the game. Martindale got off to a slow start and was removed from the starting lineup. He has been coming on and has seen his playing time increase. While consistency has been somewhat of a problem it's evident that he has .the ability to be a real good scorer. Expect he will be a starter going forward. Montgomery replaced Martindale in the starting lineup but wasn't able to hold the spot and has seen his playing time go down. He's pretty athletic and likes to take the ball to the hoop but has had mixed results so far. Shooting from distance has not been a strength so far. I'm sure he'll be a contributor going forward but hard to predict his ceiling based on what we've seen this year. Humphrey, of the four he's the one who hasn't gotten the opportunity to grab big minutes. He generally plays 10-15 minutes and has shown flashes taking the ball to the hoop but his long range shooting has been suspect. Like Montgomery he will certainly be a contributor going forward but can't predict to what extent based on this years performance. Rabinovitch and Louth get a pass as neither has played enough to make any evaluation of their play.
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Post by dadominate on Feb 26, 2021 13:44:52 GMT -5
We would not have been competitive in any game of the first 14 without a healthy Gates. To say how well we have played without Gates is by a sample of two, including a game that BU was disinterested in playing. why disinterested? also don't understand why bu was disinterested? hoops, how do we know what would have happened in the first 14 games without gates? would anyone have guessed we would have won the last two without him going into those games? gates was a great acquisition and has a bright future, but i don't think anyone can know what would have happened without him period... but particularly in light of how good we have looked without him.
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Post by hc6774 on Feb 26, 2021 14:13:55 GMT -5
also don't understand why bu was disinterested? hoops, how do we know what would have happened in the first 14 games without gates? would anyone have guessed we would have won the last two without him going into those games? gates was a great acquisition and has a bright future, but i don't think anyone can know what would have happened without him period... but particularly in light of how good we have looked without him. I thought Coach JJ was not into the game [appeared to sit in his chair during most of the game action] as much as Coach Nelson [never saw him in a chair]
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Post by HC92 on Feb 26, 2021 14:25:05 GMT -5
We would not have been competitive in any game of the first 14 without a healthy Gates. To say how well we have played without Gates is by a sample of two, including a game that BU was disinterested in playing. why disinterested? Probably because we were kicking their asses.
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Post by timholycross on Feb 26, 2021 15:33:40 GMT -5
You'd think playing on Senior Night would give you and your team a boost. Although, I can think of a few eggs that HC has laid in the past in that same situation.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 26, 2021 17:10:52 GMT -5
My take on the freshmen without really looking at the numbers: RJ has gotten big minutes from the start and has played pretty well throughout. He should be a 4 year starter who will probably improve in all facets of the game. Martindale got off to a slow start and was removed from the starting lineup. He has been coming on and has seen his playing time increase. While consistency has been somewhat of a problem it's evident that he has .the ability to be a real good scorer. Expect he will be a starter going forward. Montgomery replaced Martindale in the starting lineup but wasn't able to hold the spot and has seen his playing time go down. He's pretty athletic and likes to take the ball to the hoop but has had mixed results so far. Shooting from distance has not been a strength so far. I'm sure he'll be a contributor going forward but hard to predict his ceiling based on what we've seen this year. Humphrey, of the four he's the one who hasn't gotten the opportunity to grab big minutes. He generally plays 10-15 minutes and has shown flashes taking the ball to the hoop but his long range shooting has been suspect. Like Montgomery he will certainly be a contributor going forward but can't predict to what extent based on this years performance. Rabinovitch and Louth get a pass as neither has played enough to make any evaluation of their play. The quick highlight package put out on social media shows some great clips of how Martindale & Bubba have already made great strides from the start of the year — Martindale with his perimeter shooting and ability to use his size to drive and finish around the paint, and Bubba at the 1:18 mark catching at the top of the key with 6’5 Senior Jevante McCoy guarding him and getting all the way to the rim + finishing with contact. I also noted the 10:35 mark of the 2nd half of the Army game Sunday as a great example of how much of a problem the Bo + Bubba backcourt could be for offenses for the next 3-4 years. Caldwell (Army’s 2nd leading scorer) gets the ball on a dribble handoff, Bubba gets right through the handoff, immediately levels off Caldwell, and then Bo swoops in for a deflection/strip and pounces on the floor for the ball. (1:19:28 mark) www.espn.com/watch?id=e43dacee-c488-4a53-beca-31f73cf885f5If Bo, Bubba, and Martindale (+ Wade) continue of their current trajectory, and Luc (thinking of him as a combo) + Kenny are in the same league, we will be loaded at the 2-3-small 4 for years to come. Future is bright!
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Post by DiMarz on Feb 26, 2021 17:29:19 GMT -5
Yes! Coach Nelson and his staff have done a great job of identifying and recruiting a much more athletic group of basketball players..As Coach gets his players aboard, I can see the fortunes of HC basketball doing nothing but going up!
HC has 5 wins in 16 games, last season they had 3 wins in 32! I see that as the team getting better!!
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 26, 2021 18:52:01 GMT -5
Let's look at Bubba and Bo
Stat= 1st 8 Games/2nd 8 Games
Bubba Minutes=107/88 playing a smaller role in the game plan 2Pt Pctg= .625/.667 he has had great success going to the rim 2 Pt att per 40= 3.0/5,5 3 PT pctg= .214/.429 3 PT att per 40= 5.2/3.2 he is not launching threes as frequently FGA att per 40= 8.2/8.7 moderate shooter , not a gunner but not reluctant to launch FT Pctg= .555/.833 small sample 10/15 overall is okay Reb per 40= 2.2/0.5 not grabbing a lot of boards Turnover per 40= 3.0/1.8 Fouls per 40= 6.7/7.2 as many freshmen do, Bubba has been committing a lot of fouls Points per 40= 9.0/13.6 Bubba has been a decent scorer of late due to high percentage shooting
Bo Minutes=151/120 playing a smaller role in the game plan. He had 4 games as a starter playing 20+ minutes per game spanning the two halve of the season 2Pt Pctg= .433/.350 2 Pt att per 40= 7.9/6.7 3 PT pctg= .333/.154 his not yet proven himself as a good three point shooter 3 PT att per 40= 3.2/4.3 he is not reluctant to launch threes FGA att per 40= 11.1/11.0 Bo looks to shoot FT Pctg= .571/.500 small sample Reb per 40= 2.6/2.7 not grabbing a lot of boards Turnover per 40= 2.4/3.0 Fouls per 40= 4.5/4.7 not bad for a freshman Points per 40= 11.1/7.3 Bo has not been a big scorer
So, with Bubba and Bo I do not see any huge changes in their production
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 26, 2021 20:13:25 GMT -5
Judson Martindale
Judson Minutes=142/182 JM started the first 5 games of the season and the last 2 but is playing more minutes of late 2Pt Pctg= .500/.529 can't argue with that percentage 2 Pt att per 40= 3.9/3.7 3 PT pctg= .272/.500 .400 for the season to date must be among best percentages for a freshman in quite some time 3 PT att per 40= 6.2/6.2 that is a pretty strong launch rate . KHam was 7.4/40 for his career FGA att per 40= 10.1/9.9 moderate shooter, due to the paucity of 2 point attempts FT Pctg= .333/.833 small sample 7/12 overall Reb per 40= 2.5/5.3 has improved significantly ---need this kind of productivity from him Turnover per 40= 2.8/2.0 small samples but seems like he is doing a good job of protecting the ball Fouls per 40= 4.8/4.8 I'll bet this will go down in the future Points per 40= 9.6/14.3 JM has been showing that he will be a major scoring threat for HC
NET NET
Judson Martindale has demonstrated strong improvement in his play, particularly his three point shooting
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Post by HC92 on Feb 26, 2021 20:35:23 GMT -5
Definitely lots to like about how our team is coming along. Love the young guns. Needs the bigs to develops and then we’ll be in business for a while.
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Post by rgs318 on Feb 26, 2021 20:40:02 GMT -5
Anyone able to remind me of who we have LOIs from for the fall?
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Post by lou on Feb 26, 2021 21:15:25 GMT -5
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 26, 2021 23:50:24 GMT -5
R.J. Johnson
R.J. Minutes=243/250 Averaging 30+ minutes per game 2Pt Pctg= .381/.478 can't argue with that percentage 2 Pt att per 40= 3.5/7.4 RJ is taking twice as many twos per game as in early part of season and making a higher percentage 3 PT pctg= .400/.286 .He has a good looking shot so I still give him the green light for opportunistic attempts 3 PT att per 40= 3.3/3.4 no change there FGA att per 40= 6.8/10.8 RJ is looking to score more now than early in the year. I believe he shoots more often than most HC point guards FT Pctg= .813/.955 so glad he improved upon his early season FT pctg..... Reb per 40= 2.3/1.8 Assists per 40=6.7/4.5 assists rate has declined as he has been looking more to score on his own Turnover per 40= 3.5/2.9 Fouls per 40= 3.3/3.0 Points per 40= 8.7/13.3 RJ is one of 5 Crusaders who have scored 15 points in a game this year
NET NET
RJ has been rock steady all year with the big development in past 8 games being that he is shooting more and scoring more,
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Post by hc6774 on Feb 27, 2021 6:46:04 GMT -5
R.J. JohnsonR.J. Minutes=243/250 Averaging 30+ minutes per game 2Pt Pctg= .381/.478 can't argue with that percentage 2 Pt att per 40= 3.5/7.4 RJ is taking twice as many twos per game as in early part of season and making a higher percentage 3 PT pctg= .400/.286 .He has a good looking shot so I still give him the green light for opportunistic attempts 3 PT att per 40= 3.3/3.4 no change there FGA att per 40= 6.8/10.8 RJ is looking to score more now than early in the year. I believe he shoots more often than most HC point guards FT Pctg= .813/.955 so glad he improved upon his early season FT pctg..... Reb per 40= 2.3/1.8 Assists per 40=6.7/4.5 assists rate has declined as he has been looking more to score on his own Turnover per 40= 3.5/2.9 Fouls per 40= 3.3/3.0 Points per 40= 8.7/13.3 RJ is one of 5 Crusaders who have scored 15 points in a game this year NET NETRJ has been rock steady all year with the big development in past 8 games being that he is shooting more and scoring more, could a case be made that RJ & Marti's 2nd half numbers are somewhat attributable to GG's absence from the rotation? not a bad thing
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