Post by necfbfan on Feb 16, 2023 9:56:24 GMT -5
Disclaimer: The following is an exploration of hypotheticals rather than an ironclad prediction.
As many of you are aware, the Pac-12 is in mortal danger. USC and UCLA are entering their final seasons in the conference before entering the Big 10. Meanwhile, media partners are backing out of negotiations with the conference, and you have to think that there are a number of teams in that league frantically searching for a new home.
You would think that Oregon, Washington, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State should be able to find a new home. If the Big 10 doesn't take Oregon/Washington, the Big 12 would obviously be ecstatic to have them. Utah's two straight conference titles makes them an attractive target for the Big 12, which is exploring expansion. As for Arizona, despite the lack of recent football success, folks seem to be high on these two schools for several reasons. They exist in a large state with rapidly growing urban centers, they represent some of the most fertile recruiting territory in the US, and they add the Pacific Time Zone to the Big 12, a time zone the conference currently doesn't operate in. Colorado would be a 6th team that gets the conference to a round number, and adds to the natural geographic rivalries that could flourish in a new conference.
For the sake of this exercise, let's assume that the Pac-12 gets absolutely raided, which I do think it will. That leaves Stanford, California, Oregon State, and Washington State. If SMU and SDSU accept the conference's invitation, which seems somewhat likely but not necessarily a certainty, that gives the conference 6 members.
At 6 members, would the Pac-12 automatically merge with the Mountain West? My guess is no, they'd try to poach the most desirable teams from that league. Perhaps a combo of UNLV, Fresno State, San Jose State, Colorado State, Utah State, and Boise State. (If the two leagues do merge, that makes the following scenario less likely, at least in the short term.) UNLV requires little explanation, as it's a growing sports city. Fresno and San Jose give the conference teams from a highly populous state with a great recruiting base, and Colorado State has a big athletic budget. Boise is the strongest program in the MW, and Utah State gets the conference to a round 12 while being a geographic fit.
That leaves Wyoming, Air Force, Hawaii, Nevada, and New Mexico as the remaining MW teams. These teams may be less desirable to the Pac-12 bfor a myriad of reasons. You have states with small populations, a service academy, and a team in the ocean. So, that's where the FCS comes in. If these teams do get left behind in a now depleted Mountain West, they'd almost certainly give some FCS schools a call to round out the conference. In this scenario, South Dakota State and North Dakota State would be no-brainers, giving the conference the undisputed two most dominant teams in the FCS, and furthermore two programs that conceivably come in and win the league right off the bat. My guess is Montana and Montana State also get the call, being two strong programs that fit perfectly geographically, and bringing an established and respected rivalry to the conference. At this point, the conference would either have to add 1 or 3 members to get to a round number. This is where the guess-work gets harder, but my guess is the conference adds Incarnate Word, UC Davis, and Sacramento State. Notice how these schools hail from California and Texas. Again, population matters for an audience, and these states are great recruiting bases. All teams have had recent success, while Sacramento State and Incarnate Word just won their conferences. Not to mention that UIW is based in San Antonio, which is quietly the 7th most populous city in the US.
The bottom line is that by 2030 (And perhaps much sooner,) programs that we consider to be staples at the top of the FCS could be out of the subdivison entirely. NDSU and SDSU moving to the FBS would open up the path to the FCS title for many schools, including Holy Cross. The Big Sky, meanwhile, would lose three of its perennial top teams, weakening the conference significantly. If anything, the FCS may be less dominated by Central & Mountain Time Zone schools. Not only that, but if all these schools do jump to the FBS like many on the East Coast already have, you have to think that more schools would be eager to follow suite. Teams based in Texas such as Abilene Christian and Stephen F. Austin may be inclined to follow in the footsteps of teams like Sam Houston (Moving to C-USA,) and Incarnate Word.
In summation, we could be looking at a very different FCS by 2030, with some of the perennial superpowers leaving the subdivision for FBS glory. That could be followed by more mediocre programs at least trying to make the jump. I know the ASUN and the WAC already want to merge and move up. Furthermore, with several schools leaving the subdivision, this should mean the FCS adding more D2 schools, like we've recently seen with Merrimack and Stonehill.
Does this put Holy Cross in a position to be a consistent national power at the FCS level? Does it perhaps impact the Northeastern conferences such as the PL, NEC and CAA, or do those conferences remain unaffected? What are your thoughts on this? One thing is for sure, and it's that the effects of realignment trickle all the way down to D3 and even beyond. The FCS will undoubtedly be impacted, and it won't stop there.
As many of you are aware, the Pac-12 is in mortal danger. USC and UCLA are entering their final seasons in the conference before entering the Big 10. Meanwhile, media partners are backing out of negotiations with the conference, and you have to think that there are a number of teams in that league frantically searching for a new home.
You would think that Oregon, Washington, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State should be able to find a new home. If the Big 10 doesn't take Oregon/Washington, the Big 12 would obviously be ecstatic to have them. Utah's two straight conference titles makes them an attractive target for the Big 12, which is exploring expansion. As for Arizona, despite the lack of recent football success, folks seem to be high on these two schools for several reasons. They exist in a large state with rapidly growing urban centers, they represent some of the most fertile recruiting territory in the US, and they add the Pacific Time Zone to the Big 12, a time zone the conference currently doesn't operate in. Colorado would be a 6th team that gets the conference to a round number, and adds to the natural geographic rivalries that could flourish in a new conference.
For the sake of this exercise, let's assume that the Pac-12 gets absolutely raided, which I do think it will. That leaves Stanford, California, Oregon State, and Washington State. If SMU and SDSU accept the conference's invitation, which seems somewhat likely but not necessarily a certainty, that gives the conference 6 members.
At 6 members, would the Pac-12 automatically merge with the Mountain West? My guess is no, they'd try to poach the most desirable teams from that league. Perhaps a combo of UNLV, Fresno State, San Jose State, Colorado State, Utah State, and Boise State. (If the two leagues do merge, that makes the following scenario less likely, at least in the short term.) UNLV requires little explanation, as it's a growing sports city. Fresno and San Jose give the conference teams from a highly populous state with a great recruiting base, and Colorado State has a big athletic budget. Boise is the strongest program in the MW, and Utah State gets the conference to a round 12 while being a geographic fit.
That leaves Wyoming, Air Force, Hawaii, Nevada, and New Mexico as the remaining MW teams. These teams may be less desirable to the Pac-12 bfor a myriad of reasons. You have states with small populations, a service academy, and a team in the ocean. So, that's where the FCS comes in. If these teams do get left behind in a now depleted Mountain West, they'd almost certainly give some FCS schools a call to round out the conference. In this scenario, South Dakota State and North Dakota State would be no-brainers, giving the conference the undisputed two most dominant teams in the FCS, and furthermore two programs that conceivably come in and win the league right off the bat. My guess is Montana and Montana State also get the call, being two strong programs that fit perfectly geographically, and bringing an established and respected rivalry to the conference. At this point, the conference would either have to add 1 or 3 members to get to a round number. This is where the guess-work gets harder, but my guess is the conference adds Incarnate Word, UC Davis, and Sacramento State. Notice how these schools hail from California and Texas. Again, population matters for an audience, and these states are great recruiting bases. All teams have had recent success, while Sacramento State and Incarnate Word just won their conferences. Not to mention that UIW is based in San Antonio, which is quietly the 7th most populous city in the US.
The bottom line is that by 2030 (And perhaps much sooner,) programs that we consider to be staples at the top of the FCS could be out of the subdivison entirely. NDSU and SDSU moving to the FBS would open up the path to the FCS title for many schools, including Holy Cross. The Big Sky, meanwhile, would lose three of its perennial top teams, weakening the conference significantly. If anything, the FCS may be less dominated by Central & Mountain Time Zone schools. Not only that, but if all these schools do jump to the FBS like many on the East Coast already have, you have to think that more schools would be eager to follow suite. Teams based in Texas such as Abilene Christian and Stephen F. Austin may be inclined to follow in the footsteps of teams like Sam Houston (Moving to C-USA,) and Incarnate Word.
In summation, we could be looking at a very different FCS by 2030, with some of the perennial superpowers leaving the subdivision for FBS glory. That could be followed by more mediocre programs at least trying to make the jump. I know the ASUN and the WAC already want to merge and move up. Furthermore, with several schools leaving the subdivision, this should mean the FCS adding more D2 schools, like we've recently seen with Merrimack and Stonehill.
Does this put Holy Cross in a position to be a consistent national power at the FCS level? Does it perhaps impact the Northeastern conferences such as the PL, NEC and CAA, or do those conferences remain unaffected? What are your thoughts on this? One thing is for sure, and it's that the effects of realignment trickle all the way down to D3 and even beyond. The FCS will undoubtedly be impacted, and it won't stop there.
