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Post by purplehaze on May 15, 2023 11:28:40 GMT -5
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 15, 2023 11:41:08 GMT -5
Departure of Nelson and arrival of Paulsen is a huge positive for HC and should help us overcome the loss of GG. The equation is much more complicated than that, of course…
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Post by sader1970 on May 15, 2023 11:57:27 GMT -5
I think his complicated chart falls under the heading of "pseudo science." But 15 wins overall? I've predicted that NADII will win more games in his first year than Brett did in his best season. Guess this guy agrees but my prediction is based strictly on gut instinct and our new coach's experience and proven winning history. I also think he has the ability to "coach up" returning players which always seemed doubtful with his predecessor.
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Post by hchoops on May 15, 2023 12:07:04 GMT -5
Is coaching calculated in this projection ?
It is hard to see how that can be numerically determined.
Presuming coaching is not included, What is more unrealistic than 7th in the PL is the 279 in the nation. We lost by far the best player and we move up 70 spots ! Ridiculous..
It seems that the 71% of returning minutes is a significant stat for him. But that stat alone does not figure in exactly who was lost. I guess if Dorsey had not left, we would be 3 or 4 !
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Post by Sons of Vaval on May 15, 2023 12:08:29 GMT -5
Is coaching calculated in this projection ? It is hard to see how that can be numerically determined. Presuming coaching is not included, What is more unrealistic than 7th in the PL is the 280 in the nation. We lost by far the best player and we move up 30-40 spots ! Ridiculous. Furthermore....it's one thing to project PL records, but how can overall record be projected when schedules haven't even been released? |
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Post by hchoops on May 15, 2023 12:11:45 GMT -5
Agree.
Given that he presumes last season’s sched is the basis, the 7-7 OOC record seems less attainable than the 8-10 PL.
Maybe he figures we will schedule 5-7 D3s and win most of them.
His offensive projection has up moving from 348 to 273 with the defensive going from 327 to 275.
Having an average of 2.22 years of experience, significantly more than the three teams below us, also must have been a major factor in our ranking,
just noticed the bottom line
“ Compiled by Bart Tovik from sacred data and secret formulas”
Insightful.
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Post by bison137 on May 15, 2023 12:57:09 GMT -5
Is coaching calculated in this projection ? No. |
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Post by Non Alum Dave on May 15, 2023 13:46:08 GMT -5
FYI - in his preseason player calculations last year he left out one guy: Gates. Not kidding.
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Post by rgs318 on May 15, 2023 14:12:19 GMT -5
Is coaching calculated in this projection ? It is hard to see how that can be numerically determined. Presuming coaching is not included, What is more unrealistic than 7th in the PL is the 280 in the nation. We lost by far the best player and we move up 30-40 spots ! Ridiculous. Furthermore....it's one thing to project PL records, but how can overall record be projected when schedules haven't even been released? A guess is a guess, especially when, as you point out, the facts (like who all the opponents will be) are still to be learned! It can still be fun to speculate in this way. Just don't cn fuse such guesses with reality.  |
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Post by longsuffering on May 15, 2023 15:39:24 GMT -5
15-17. We move almost back up to the end of the Carmody era, 16-17 in 2018-19 with one PLT win. The last Carmody team lost to Michigan, Harvard, URI and by nine at Providence but beat D-1 OOC teams Sacred Heart, Stony Brook, Siena (swept a two game series), Albany, Fairleigh Dickinson, UMass, Canisius and Iona.
No D-2 or 3 opponents. Coach Carmody had the team humming before his wife's illness worsened. The difference in schedule between Carmody's last year and Nelson’s last year, when each coach logically had their strongest input to scheduling, is night and day.
Not saying either approach was wrong given the status of the program at the time.
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