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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jun 26, 2023 7:22:11 GMT -5
On my final trip to the CCCP, I was supposed to visit Rostov-on-Don, but I had minimal interest in going and stayed behind in Moscow while the rest of the delegation went to Rostov.
From Tula Oblast to Moscow is about 200 KM. (Oblast means an administrative center, a U.S. analogy might be a county seat.)
So a convoy(s) of Wagner forces rolls up the highway from Rostov headed toward Moscow and faces little or no opposition as they cover about 550 miles in a day, until they halt.
NSFW unbelievable!
A crude analogy would be for a governor of a southern state to mobilize the state national guard, drive on Tampa FL capture the city and the U.S. military's Central Command, and then roll north toward Washington DC before stopping around Petersburg VA. Unimpeded.
I have serious doubts about whether Prighozin really wanted to reach Moscow. I think he made his point that the Russian military is hollowed out because of Putin's misadventure in Ukraine, and the leadership, from the top down, is inept. The convoy(s) must have periodically stopped at gas stations along the way to refill the fuel tanks of the trucks and transporters, a time when they are vulnerable. From the videos, I saw little in the way of supply trucks with ammunition and other essential supplies if there was to be a serious fight for Moscow itself.
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Post by rgs318 on Jun 26, 2023 7:26:59 GMT -5
Thanks Pak for raising those interesting points. Even though I studied Russia and its foreign policy some years back, I have no idea what is actually going on with the current "players:" so such information is, to say the least, enlightening.
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Post by hchoops on Jun 26, 2023 7:30:20 GMT -5
Does this imply that Ukraine will win ?
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jun 26, 2023 13:48:27 GMT -5
Does this imply that Ukraine will win ? I don't know the definition of a Ukrainian victory: Russia pushed back to its pre-invasion positions? Russia loses the territory in northeastern Ukraine that was controlled by its proxy allies? Russia loses Crimea? Since my first post to start this thread, Prighozin has publicly appeared in Belarus and announced it was never his intention to overthrow the government. Probably true. The Kremlin is supposedly pulling back forces from Ukraine to defend Moscow. If true, these are probably among its better units who can be trusted to stand and fight rather than flee. It is commonly believed that Putin suffers from acute paranoia, and as a day-long crisis unfolded, he apparently fled Moscow on his government jet, and supposedly other Kremlin high-ups also fled on private jets as well, most to Saint Petersburg. The Wagner Group was, in effect, created by Putin, and favored by Putin as the manifestation and extension of Russian military power. It has now become his rebellious child. Five years ago, www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.htmlIf I were Putin and I were a paranoid, I wouldn't trust the Russian army or the Russian air Force. He has sacked commanders left and right. His forces continue to suffer high casualties, many of the officer cadre killed or wounded, the losses in equipment staggering. Ongoing losses with little to show for it become a fertile ground for mutiny, IMO. According to Oryx, documented and verified equipment losses are: Russia - 10800, of which: destroyed: 7179, damaged: 390, abandoned: 407, captured: 2824 Tanks (2061, of which destroyed: 1292, damaged: 116, abandoned: 112, captured: 541) www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.htmlFor comparison, the U.S. currently has about 2,500 main battle tanks in active service.
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Post by longsuffering on Jun 26, 2023 14:44:03 GMT -5
Does this imply that Ukraine will win ? I don't know the definition of a Ukrainian victory: Russia pushed back to its pre-invasion positions? Russia loses the territory in northeastern Ukraine that was controlled by its proxy allies? Russia loses Crimea? Since my first post to start this thread, Prighozin has publicly appeared in Belarus and announced it was never his intention to overthrow the government. Probably true. The Kremlin is supposedly pulling back forces from Ukraine to defend Moscow. If true, these are probably among its better units who can be trusted to stand and fight rather than flee. It is commonly believed that Putin suffers from acute paranoia, and as a day-long crisis unfolded, he apparently fled Moscow on his government jet, and supposedly other Kremlin high-ups also fled on private jets as well, most to Saint Petersburg. The Wagner Group was, in effect, created by Putin, and favored by Putin as the manifestation and extension of Russian military power. It has now become his rebellious child. Five years ago, www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.htmlIf I were Putin and I were a paranoid, I wouldn't trust the Russian army or the Russian air Force. He has sacked commanders left and right. His forces continue to suffer high casualties, many of the officer cadre killed or wounded, the losses in equipment staggering. Ongoing losses with little to show for it become a fertile ground for mutiny, IMO. According to Oryx, documented and verified equipment losses are: Russia - 10800, of which: destroyed: 7179, damaged: 390, abandoned: 407, captured: 2824 Tanks (2061, of which destroyed: 1292, damaged: 116, abandoned: 112, captured: 541) www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.htmlFor comparison, the U.S. currently has about 2,500 main battle tanks in active service. I've watched many of those Russian Tanks get destroyed on internet video clips. It never gets old. I've been rooting for Ukraine like I did for the Falkland Islands forty years ago.
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Post by hcpride on Jun 26, 2023 19:02:02 GMT -5
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Post by alum on Jun 26, 2023 21:04:31 GMT -5
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Post by hcpride on Jun 27, 2023 3:44:24 GMT -5
Not precisely my point (note ‘rather unsurprising’). Almost miraculous that Prighozin seemed to have Intel regarding Russian disposition of forces, knowledge that Russia was unaware of the pending march, best routes to avoid regular army ground units, an ability to conceal the pending move from the Kremlin, and perfect timing when launched. Quite an operation.
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Post by alum on Jun 27, 2023 4:10:50 GMT -5
Tell us what you mean. Do you think the US was trying to sow chaos?
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Post by hcpride on Jun 27, 2023 8:39:11 GMT -5
Apparently this latest episode was known to us (but not Moscow) in significant advance and in very great detail.
We could have warned Putin, but didn’t. This was an upcoming win (in 50 directions at once) for us. No matter the outcome. We may have tossed a few deniable intel scraps (see my comment, above) Prigozhin’s way to increase the win.
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Post by WCHC Sports on Jun 27, 2023 9:52:58 GMT -5
I believe Prighozin would have killed Shoigu... he doesn't respect Shoigu given his demonstrated ineptitude, and seeing how he is a military minister with little military background. (Prighozin is a military leader, but it's not a regular military force, and he's at least fought on the front lines coming a long way from his days as a restaurant guy). I agree with PaP, Prighozin proved his point. The question is how mad did that point-making make Putin? I think on the home front, Russia can rather easily propagandize that Putin quelled the insurrection, used his allies abroad in Belarus to isolate Prighozin, and no one can argue that the Russian MOD is now going to usurp the remaining Wager forces and materiel.
I do question what the sweetheart incentive was for Prighozin to call it off. Was it all a ploy to weed out any other potential insurrectionists or oligarchs? Did Prighozin just realize the endgame was his columns getting bombed by Super Flankers? The intrigue is fascinating. As of now, I think it bodes somewhat positively for Ukraine, since their biggest on-the-ground obstacles in Wagner Group PMC are at least reorganized and at best dissolved.
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Post by hcpride on Jun 27, 2023 10:28:39 GMT -5
The Intel (including signal, geo and imagery) gap between Russia and the US (and the US’ means to deliver that Intel in an actionable and encrypted manner) has been a decisive strategic and tactical component of the entire war.
Although various weapons systems have received much popular press.
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Post by longsuffering on Jun 27, 2023 10:39:11 GMT -5
I believe Prighozin would have killed Shoigu... he doesn't respect Shoigu given his demonstrated ineptitude, and seeing how he is a military minister with little military background. (Prighozin is a military leader, but it's not a regular military force, and he's at least fought on the front lines coming a long way from his days as a restaurant guy). I agree with PaP, Prighozin proved his point. The question is how mad did that point-making make Putin? I think on the home front, Russia can rather easily propagandize that Putin quelled the insurrection, used his allies abroad in Belarus to isolate Prighozin, and no one can argue that the Russian MOD is now going to usurp the remaining Wager forces and materiel. I do question what the sweetheart incentive was for Prighozin to call it off. Was it all a ploy to weed out any other potential insurrectionists or oligarchs? Did Prighozin just realize the endgame was his columns getting bombed by Super Flankers? The intrigue is fascinating. As of now, I think it bodes somewhat positively for Ukraine, since their biggest on-the-ground obstacles in Wagner Group PMC are at least reorganized and at best dissolved. It was the opposite of a sweetheart deal. Putin threatened to kill Prighozin's family.
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Post by longsuffering on Jun 27, 2023 10:45:26 GMT -5
Not precisely my point (note ‘rather unsurprising’). Almost miraculous that Prighozin seemed to have Intel regarding Russian disposition of forces, knowledge that Russia was unaware of the pending march, best routes to avoid regular army ground units, an ability to conceal the pending move from the Kremlin, and perfect timing when launched. Quite an operation. Wagner used the Military HQ in Rostov as a rear logistics HQ also so their comings and goings were not unusual. They "took over" the city of a million people and the military HQ for video clip purposes, but nobody seemed to think they were captured or invaded. It was like a block party.
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Post by hcpride on Jun 27, 2023 11:14:58 GMT -5
Not precisely my point (note ‘rather unsurprising’). Almost miraculous that Prighozin seemed to have Intel regarding Russian disposition of forces, knowledge that Russia was unaware of the pending march, best routes to avoid regular army ground units, an ability to conceal the pending move from the Kremlin, and perfect timing when launched. Quite an operation. Wagner used the Military HQ in Rostov as a rear logistics HQ also so their comings and goings were not unusual. They "took over" the city of a million people and the military HQ for video clip purposes, but nobody seemed to think they were captured or invaded. It was like a block party. Yes. Given Russia’s top down military, chronic miscommunications, their disposition of forces, the element of surprise, and the fact there are frequent comings and goings of various military (regular and irregular) vehicles along this route this is not a stunning accomplishment. But one could play it as such.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jun 27, 2023 21:04:31 GMT -5
From the NY Times tonight. This will make Putin even more paranoid.
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