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Post by alum on Nov 1, 2023 12:09:47 GMT -5
Sam Herder posted his latest update herosports.com/fcs-football-2023-playoff-predictions-3-bzbz/2021-2022 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 14/16 seeds correct, 46/48 teams correct
Seeds
These are playoff predictions and don’t reflect my current Top 25. The numbers associated with teams may not match where I currently rank them on my ballot.
1. South Dakota State
2. Idaho
3. Montana State
4. Furman
5. Montana
6. Delaware
7. Sacramento State
8. Southern Illinois
Auto-Bids
Big Sky – Idaho
Big South-OVC – UT Martin
CAA – Delaware
MVFC – South Dakota State
NEC – Duquesne
Patriot – Lafayette
Pioneer – Davidson
SoCon – Furman
Southland – UIW
UAC – Central Arkansas
At-Large Bids
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams who are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.
Montana State (seed)
Montana (seed)
Southern Illinois (seed)
Sacramento State (seed)
UAlbany
Northern Iowa
South Dakota
Mercer
North Dakota
North Dakota State
21. Villanova
22. Western Carolina
23. Austin Peay
24. Chattanooga
Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.
25. Youngstown State
26. William & Mary
27. Tennessee State
28. Richmond
29. Holy Cross
30. Gardner-Webb
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 1, 2023 12:20:52 GMT -5
I think Sam Herder has as good of a pulse on FCS football as anyone and think he's dead on with this.
Bearing this in mind, we are big fans this weekend of:
Murray State (hosting North Dakota)
South Dakota St (hosting NDSU)
UNH (hosting Villanova)
Wofford (hosting Western Carolina)
Eastern Kentucky (hosting Austin Peay)
Furman (at Chattanooga)
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 1, 2023 12:25:20 GMT -5
I'd be more inclined to root for Villanova to put a fork in UNH, who I believe would be a strong at-large candidate should they win out.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 1, 2023 12:26:17 GMT -5
Chattanooga is probably in a must-win situation this weekend. If they lose to Furman, they move to 7-3. They end their season at Alabama. That's 7-4. While they have a nice win over Mercer, they've got a bad loss to North Alabama.
This is a really, really important game for bubble teams to monitor. We need our fellow purple team to come away with a win.
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Post by hcpride on Nov 1, 2023 12:29:30 GMT -5
I think we also want to see Albany beat William & Mary in Albany. Should knock W&M completely out of playoffs. Could be a very good game, BTW.
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Post by efg72 on Nov 1, 2023 12:29:47 GMT -5
Everybody plays this weekend and all games matter- we win this weekend and then look around for the results of others One game and one play at a time  |
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 1, 2023 12:31:10 GMT -5
I'd be more inclined to root for Villanova to put a fork in UNH, who I believe would be a strong at-large candidate should they win out. You think UNH is in at 7-4? I don't see that. That loss to Towson at home sticks out like a sore thumb. The CAA gives me headaches. They're going to have a bunch of 7-4 teams. One might get in, but I don't think more than that. |
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 1, 2023 12:33:01 GMT -5
I think we also want to see Albany beat William & Mary in Albany. Could be a very good game, BTW. That is very nearly a "loser goes home" game. I think W&M is for sure done if they lose. Albany has a 12 game schedule this year and I think they're in at 8-4 (two close losses to FBS teams), but not a sure thing. |
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 1, 2023 12:41:35 GMT -5
I think we also want to see Albany beat William & Mary in Albany. Could be a very good game, BTW. That is very nearly a "loser goes home" game. I think W&M is for sure done if they lose. Albany has a 12 game schedule this year and I think they're in at 8-4 (two close losses to FBS teams), but not a sure thing. W&M done if they lose to Albany. And yes, I believe Albany is in at 8-4 as much as some of the polls seem to hate them. |
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Post by alum on Nov 1, 2023 13:03:31 GMT -5
I'd be more inclined to root for Villanova to put a fork in UNH, who I believe would be a strong at-large candidate should they win out. You think UNH is in at 7-4? I don't see that. That loss to Towson at home sticks out like a sore thumb. The CAA gives me headaches. They're going to have a bunch of 7-4 teams. One might get in, but I don't think more than that. The CAA has, in addition to Delaware, the following teams who could end up 7-4 or better: UAlbany 6-3 (2 are BCS) with Williiam and Mary, Stonybrook and Monmoth left William & Mary 5-3 (one loss to UVA) with Albany, Hampton, and Richmond left Villanova 6-2 (one loss to UCF) with UNH, Towson and Delaware left. UNH is 4-4 with Villanova, Monmouth and Maine left Richmond 6-3 (one loss to Michigan St) with Campbell Elon and William and Mary left URI 5-4 (one loss to GA State) with NC A and T and Townson left I think that the two big desired CAA results this week from HC's perspective are Albany beating William and Mary and UNH beating Villanova. If Richmond and URI could get beat too, that would be great. |
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 1, 2023 13:12:48 GMT -5
I'd rather Villanova KO UNH and reduce the bubble by 1 for sure. I have a funny feeling Nova beats Delaware to end the season.
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Post by purplehaze on Nov 1, 2023 13:41:39 GMT -5
In the CAA muddle - Elon could also finish 7-4 (one FBS loss) and remaining games vs. Delaware, Richmond and Hampton
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Post by hchoops on Nov 1, 2023 13:50:06 GMT -5
Of course this prediction will change before the final bracket, but if Sam is accurate, this is not a good place for HC to ne in.
I wonder how he projects our last three games ? 2 of 3 ? 3 of 3 ?
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Post by hchoops on Nov 1, 2023 13:52:26 GMT -5
I'd rather Villanova KO UNH and reduce the bubble by 1 for sure. Sam’s prediction model does not have UNH on his bubble. |
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 1, 2023 13:54:43 GMT -5
In the CAA muddle - Elon could also finish 7-4 (one FBS loss) and remaining games vs. Delaware, Richmond and Hampton ...for this to happen, then Richmond would have four losses. Could be a good thing, or bad thing. Should we get to 8-3, we'll be a really interesting study on selection Sunday. Definitely in that last two in / first two out bucket, IMO. |
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 1, 2023 13:56:40 GMT -5
Of course this prediction will change before the final bracket, but if Sam is accurate, this is not a good place for HC to ne in. I wonder how he projects our last three games ? 2 of 3 ? 3 of 3 ? Probably 2 of 3 |
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 1, 2023 14:02:22 GMT -5
I'd rather Villanova KO UNH and reduce the bubble by 1 for sure. Sam’s prediction model does not have UNH on his bubble. There's no model. From Sam -- These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future games into consideration. This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.Worth noting that Fordham's AD is on the committee. I also see that Thomas Pincince (CCSU AD) is on the committee. His brother, Chris, used to be HC's OC. |
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Nov 1, 2023 14:04:21 GMT -5
I have to go lie down for a bit. My skull hurts.
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Post by timholycross on Nov 1, 2023 15:18:43 GMT -5
Having a league get 6 bids seems a bit out of whack- but that's what he's giving the MVFC (all 4 Dakotas, SIU and UNI).
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 1, 2023 15:19:47 GMT -5
I think Sam Herder has as good of a pulse on FCS football as anyone and think he's dead on with this. Bearing this in mind, we are big fans this weekend of: Murray State (hosting North Dakota) South Dakota St (hosting NDSU) UNH (hosting Villanova) Wofford (hosting Western Carolina) Eastern Kentucky (hosting Austin Peay) Furman (at Chattanooga) I think bubble teams want Austin Peay to beat EKU. You need the UAC to be a one big league and an EKU win would put them in the drivers seat to win the conference although they still have to play UCA. Austin Peay staying as the auto bid helps cause they would have a strong 8-3 case as the UAC runner ups for an at large bid. Similar thinking to why you want Furman to beat Chattanooga. |
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 1, 2023 19:06:38 GMT -5
I'd rather Villanova KO UNH and reduce the bubble by 1 for sure. Sam’s prediction model does not have UNH on his bubble. They're not on the bubble NOW but they will be if they finish 7-4. Fordham also not listed but if they win out to go 8-3, they certainly will be a bubble team. |
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Post by cruskater31 on Nov 1, 2023 20:12:23 GMT -5
I have a sneaking suspicion also that Nova might pull the upset of UD. If UD loses to Nova, they won't get a seed (presumably) but they are still a lock if they beat Elon and Campbell. (Elon vs Richmond in two weeks has implications for Richmond and W&M. Wins over UD and Richmond could put Elon back on the bubble at 7-4 and 7-3 in FCS).
So Delaware and Nova would be locks for the CAA with the winner of that game potentially winning the auto-bid. Albany would make 3 and likely control their own destiny with a win over W&M. If UNH upsets Nova, Villanova probably would not win the auto-bid even with a win over Delaware. I think I'm with nycru...I'd rather see Villanova put an end to UNH's run. I'd also like to see Albany put an end to W&M. That likely means W&M vs Richmond would pit two unranked teams on Selection weekend and the winner may not be a lock for the postseason. Eliminate as many as possible. Go Furman!
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 2, 2023 0:33:21 GMT -5
Grim projection. But Laffy is inexperienced as a frontrunner, so if they lose two of three, we are back in it for the auto-bid.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 2, 2023 4:43:21 GMT -5
W&M definitely needs to win out. If they lose to Albany, even a season-ending win over Richmond won't do much for them -- UR would have at least 4 losses should that happen.
I think UR is a near-lock if they win out since they'll have won 7 of 8 to finish 8-3. That early season loss to Morgan St IMO would hurt them badly if they were to finish 7-4. I view W&M and Richmond's prognosis much like Holy Cross right now -- 90% in at 8-3 but almost 100% out at 7-4.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 2, 2023 4:48:00 GMT -5
Grim projection. But Laffy is inexperienced as a frontrunner, so if they lose two of three, we are back in it for the auto-bid. I'm in the camp of hoping that if they don't lose two that they lose none at all. Rooting for them to lose to Fordham is a double-edged sword since the Rams are still on the bubble themselves. The ideal scenario for us IMO is to see both HC AND Lafayette win out. But that also begs one question - lets say we win out and Lafayette loses one game. Would we get any "brownie points" from the committee for being a conference co-champion? |
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