Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 6, 2017 8:12:19 GMT -5
Here are some thoughts on the Kentucky Derby on this dreary morning as we await weather reports and see whether the track will be fast or muddy today.
Classic Empire-- The 2YO Champ may be the 3YO champ again. After disappointing in the Holy Bull, he looked great in the Arkansas Derby, overcoming some early trouble to prevail even though he may not have been fully cranked. He's become my top choice.
Irish War Cry--He was my top selection for a long time and he's now a close second to Classic Empire. This front runner looked great in the Holy Bull then horrible in the Fountain of Youth. I was rewarded for my support when he ran an impressive Wood Memorial, stalking a fast pace and then powering away in the deep stretch to win handily. I love his sire Curlin for stamina
Always Dreaming is out of Todd Pletcher's barn. Pundits talk about how Pletcher is 1 for 45 in the Derby but probably 25 of those horses were only entered because the owner insisted, i.e. Todd knew they had little chance. He wins at a 19% rate in Grade-1 stakes for 3 year olds so he knows how to get these young runners ready for the biggest races. He was impressive in the Florida Derby, coming home the final 3/8ths in 36-2 to win by 5 lengths despite being geared down near the wire.
McCraken has looked great in workouts and has one of the best stamina pedigrees in the field (overall the field is mediocre for distance pedigrees, however) with Ghostzapper on top and Seeking the Gold as the dam-sire.
Among the long shots I like a few who may have a chance to win but, more importantly, may have the stamina to fill out a very nice trifecta or superfecta:
Tapwrit looked great winning the Tampa Bay Derby but then ran a horrible race in the Blue Grass. So he will be overlooked in the wagering but has the stamina pedigree to last the distance.
Irap= well-bred for the distance.
Practical Joke is trained by Chad Brown and is the choice of Andy Serling, NYRA's analyst, well known for his iconoclastic selections who often surprise at long odds.
In the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, the Grade-1 turf race that precedes the Derby I'm going with Conquest Panthera, a lightly raced 5YO who has never run the distance but who has one of my favorite angles: Kitten's Joy is the sire and his runners can really move forward when they stretch out. I may get 8-1 or more on him. I like several others in the race and hope to hit the Turf-Derby double and the Oaks-Turf-Derby pick three as I have one live ticket there with Abel Tasman winning the Oaks at 13-1. This Turf Classic is a big race and I had the honor of presenting the trophy on it many years ago as my (former now) company is the sponsor.
Good luck to anyone participating today
Classic Empire-- The 2YO Champ may be the 3YO champ again. After disappointing in the Holy Bull, he looked great in the Arkansas Derby, overcoming some early trouble to prevail even though he may not have been fully cranked. He's become my top choice.
Irish War Cry--He was my top selection for a long time and he's now a close second to Classic Empire. This front runner looked great in the Holy Bull then horrible in the Fountain of Youth. I was rewarded for my support when he ran an impressive Wood Memorial, stalking a fast pace and then powering away in the deep stretch to win handily. I love his sire Curlin for stamina
Always Dreaming is out of Todd Pletcher's barn. Pundits talk about how Pletcher is 1 for 45 in the Derby but probably 25 of those horses were only entered because the owner insisted, i.e. Todd knew they had little chance. He wins at a 19% rate in Grade-1 stakes for 3 year olds so he knows how to get these young runners ready for the biggest races. He was impressive in the Florida Derby, coming home the final 3/8ths in 36-2 to win by 5 lengths despite being geared down near the wire.
McCraken has looked great in workouts and has one of the best stamina pedigrees in the field (overall the field is mediocre for distance pedigrees, however) with Ghostzapper on top and Seeking the Gold as the dam-sire.
Among the long shots I like a few who may have a chance to win but, more importantly, may have the stamina to fill out a very nice trifecta or superfecta:
Tapwrit looked great winning the Tampa Bay Derby but then ran a horrible race in the Blue Grass. So he will be overlooked in the wagering but has the stamina pedigree to last the distance.
Irap= well-bred for the distance.
Practical Joke is trained by Chad Brown and is the choice of Andy Serling, NYRA's analyst, well known for his iconoclastic selections who often surprise at long odds.
In the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, the Grade-1 turf race that precedes the Derby I'm going with Conquest Panthera, a lightly raced 5YO who has never run the distance but who has one of my favorite angles: Kitten's Joy is the sire and his runners can really move forward when they stretch out. I may get 8-1 or more on him. I like several others in the race and hope to hit the Turf-Derby double and the Oaks-Turf-Derby pick three as I have one live ticket there with Abel Tasman winning the Oaks at 13-1. This Turf Classic is a big race and I had the honor of presenting the trophy on it many years ago as my (former now) company is the sponsor.
Good luck to anyone participating today