Post by Ray on Nov 13, 2017 14:29:44 GMT -5
Obvious answer: well, never. But, hear me out...
Curious as to what a season-opening win portends for the rest of our season, I ran a quick study on HC seasons from 2002-17. (Endpoints selected because this is KenPom's data set, of course).
When HC WINS the season opener (10 times in 15 years), they end up with an average record of 17.5 Wins, 14 losses.
When HC LOSES the season opener (5 times in 15 years), they end up with an average record of 15.5 Wins, 15.5 losses.
Of course, there are outliers:
- The 2003 team lost their season opener (@ Kansas, of course) and finished 26-5.
- The 2013 team won its opener (that 41-40 barn burner at Old Dominion, you can find it on ESPN Classic frequently), only to finish 12-18.
Anyway, what's it all worth? Not much. But while we wait for Harvard on Thursday, thought I'd share my findings.
Curious as to what a season-opening win portends for the rest of our season, I ran a quick study on HC seasons from 2002-17. (Endpoints selected because this is KenPom's data set, of course).
When HC WINS the season opener (10 times in 15 years), they end up with an average record of 17.5 Wins, 14 losses.
When HC LOSES the season opener (5 times in 15 years), they end up with an average record of 15.5 Wins, 15.5 losses.
Of course, there are outliers:
- The 2003 team lost their season opener (@ Kansas, of course) and finished 26-5.
- The 2013 team won its opener (that 41-40 barn burner at Old Dominion, you can find it on ESPN Classic frequently), only to finish 12-18.
Anyway, what's it all worth? Not much. But while we wait for Harvard on Thursday, thought I'd share my findings.
