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Post by rgs318 on Dec 30, 2017 11:35:50 GMT -5
The Leopards are currently 2-10. In their last game they lost to Lehigh by 5 but gave them quite a game before going down 74-79. Massey makes Lafayette a 3 point favorite (65-68) and gives the Pards a 58% chance for the win.
Sacred Heart beat Lafayette by 12, so it does show what others think of HC right now.
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Post by rgs318 on Dec 30, 2017 11:56:22 GMT -5
PROBABLE STARTERS: 13 Matt Klinewski F (Sr, 6'8" 235) 19 ppg / 6 rpg / 2 apg / 28 mpg 33 Paulius Zalys F (Jr, 6'7" 215) 6 ppg / 4 rpg / 2 apg / 22 mpg 4 Eric Stafford G (Sr, 6'5" 172) 5 ppg / 3 rpg / 3 apg / 23 mpg 24 Kyle Stout G (So, 6'3" 193) 4 ppg / 3 rpg / 1 apg / 18 mpg 21 Alex Petrie G (Fr 6'3" 200) 10 ppg / 2 rpg / 1 apg / 21 mpg
TOP SUBS: 11 Justin Jaworski G (Fr, 6'1" 188) 12 ppg / 2 rpg / 1 apg / 28 mpg 20 E.J. Stephens G (Fr 6'3" 169) 8 ppg / 3 rpg / 1 apg / 23 mpg 23 Lukas Jarrett F (So, 6'7" 205) 3 ppg / 4 rpg / 1 apg / 19 mpg 44 Dylan Hastings F (Fr, 6'8" 206) 2 ppg / 2 rpg / 0 apg / 22 mpg 54 Myles Cherry F (So, 6'9" 239) 2 ppg / 3 rpg / 1 apg / 10 mpg
OK, Lafayette is a young team with frosh getting major minutes. Tall guards who will be a problem for us. They are shooting .333 from 3 point range to .366 for opponents. They are getting outrebounded by about 5 a game. Since they are so similar to HC, it will be a most interesting match-up on Tuesday...and they did give Lehigh all they could handle in almost pulling off an upset.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Dec 30, 2017 13:20:51 GMT -5
3 point underdogs against a 2-10 team.
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Post by ncaam on Dec 30, 2017 13:22:17 GMT -5
I fear we have no defense for Klinewski
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Dec 30, 2017 13:38:52 GMT -5
3 point underdogs against a 2-10 team. Pomeroy has HC +5. And one of Lafayette's wins came against Susquehanna. Should we lost to Lafayette, that would be ten losses in 11 games. We haven't had a stretch that bad since Milan's first season. We are well on our way to a single-digit win season.
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Post by rgs318 on Dec 30, 2017 13:51:58 GMT -5
IIRC CBC predicted 5 wins this year.
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Post by jflare on Dec 31, 2017 9:56:16 GMT -5
I think that we can give the Pards all they can handle on Tuesday but will probably take a tough loss by 4-5 points......
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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 31, 2017 10:38:47 GMT -5
Some salient stats . . .
Three Point Rate. Like Colgate, Lafayette takes a very high percentage of their shots from beyond the arc (46.2%, 28th). Unlike Colgate, they haven't been shooting them well (33.6%, 225th), even more poorly last three games (28.6%).
Free Throws. Lafayette doesn't get to the line much more often than Holy Cross, but makes 75.9% of those freebies. HC FT%, 63.2% (336th)
Rebounding. Only Coppin State garners a lower percentage of possible offensive rebounds than Lafayette (15.2%, 350th), but they've been good at the defensive end ( 74.9%, 105th). Holy Cross needs to get 75% at the defensive end, but against a similarly week Colgate team, we got just 57% - on the season HC is averaging a lowly 63.8% (344th) defensively and 17.9% (343rd) offensively.
Defense. As usual, Lafayette is not a good defensive team - opponent EFG is 52.5% (235th), but better in its last three outings (46.2%). Holy Cross has been less effective (54.5%, 285th), and worse the last three games (60%)
Turnovers. Lafayette doesn't take great care of the ball, and rarely turns over their opponents (14.4%, 343rd)
Extra Scoring Chances. Both Holy Cross and Lafayette have been generous to their opponents on this score - HC is -3.9 (303rd), Lafayette -7.4 (345th)
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Post by HCFC45 on Dec 31, 2017 12:40:09 GMT -5
What defense does Lafayette play? Zone? Man? Matchup?
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 1, 2018 17:12:39 GMT -5
What defense does Lafayette play? Zone? Man? Matchup? Watched some snippets of the game against Lehigh - they started in man, went to what looked to me like a pretty conventional 2-3 zone for awhile in the second half. Seem more comfortable M2M, Didn't look too impressive, but Lehigh only managed to make about 40% of their twos, so apparently they were doing something right. Offensively, Lafayette moved the ball well, got a lot of good looks and scores inside, but often settled for taking threes early in the clock, and weren't too successful from deep, which probably cost them the game.
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Post by possum on Jan 1, 2018 17:59:37 GMT -5
Woo how did Karnik look for Lehigh based on preseason stats looks like Reed got another good big man.
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Post by lou on Jan 1, 2018 18:21:33 GMT -5
Woo how did Karnik look for Lehigh based on preseason stats looks like Reed got another good big man. *Freshman forward James Karnik scored 15 points and added six rebounds
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Post by thecrossisback on Jan 1, 2018 21:57:42 GMT -5
If they loose this game, they should pack up and forfeit the rest of the season. Lets face it, Lafayette STINKS!
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Post by ncaam on Jan 1, 2018 22:09:35 GMT -5
Unlikely and FYI the frosh need experience so they can work this summer on their shortcomings.
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Post by jflare on Jan 2, 2018 9:47:25 GMT -5
If they loose this game, they should pack up and forfeit the rest of the season. Lets face it, Lafayette STINKS!
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Post by jflare on Jan 2, 2018 9:48:54 GMT -5
Would not be surprised to see a 4-5 point close loss tonight. We'll play tough but I think Lafayette is a little too strong for us right now.
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Post by Tom on Jan 2, 2018 9:57:08 GMT -5
Would not be surprised to see a 4-5 point close loss tonight. We'll play tough but I think Lafayette is a little too strong for us right now.
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Post by ncaam on Jan 2, 2018 10:15:19 GMT -5
We have every bit as much talent as Lafayette but they have more experience.
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Post by rgs318 on Jan 2, 2018 10:22:21 GMT -5
Well said. Experience is not to be discounted as some seem to do so quickly. The current team is learning some tough lessons this year but they are learning and, IMHO, that will pay off down the road.
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Post by efg72 on Jan 2, 2018 10:36:32 GMT -5
I think we have more talent, and while experience leans slightly to Lafayette, for us to win tonight the HC staff needs to be better than Fran at making adjustments and exploiting matchups -- let's see if he starts the Leopards in m/m or zone and how we defend the 3
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Post by trimster on Jan 2, 2018 11:02:44 GMT -5
I am getting too old to write off seasons. We need some buzz from this group to have something to look forward to.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 2, 2018 11:03:54 GMT -5
experience leans slightly to Lafayette . . . That's the right word. They only have two seniors on the whole team, and almost 2/3 of the minutes come from underclassmen (three of the top four in minutes are freshmen). Minutes by Class: Freshmen, 38% Sophomores, 24% Juniors, 13% Seniors, 25% I'm concerned that Lafayette will be getting lots of good looks around the arc and "progressing towards the mean" in making those shots. They are also very good at getting the ball inside if/when we over-extend.
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Post by Tom on Jan 2, 2018 11:10:21 GMT -5
experience leans slightly to Lafayette . . . That's the right word. They only have two seniors on the whole team. I think that's almost infinity times as many seniors as we have
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Post by WorcesterGray on Jan 2, 2018 11:12:44 GMT -5
I think that's almost infinity times as many seniors as we have And sophomores
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Post by bison137 on Jan 2, 2018 11:33:11 GMT -5
experience leans slightly to Lafayette . . . That's the right word. They only have two seniors on the whole team, and almost 2/3 of the minutes come from underclassmen (three of the top four in minutes are freshmen). Minutes by Class: Freshmen, 38% Sophomores, 24% Juniors, 13% Seniors, 25% I'm concerned that Lafayette will be getting lots of good looks around the arc and "progressing towards the mean" in making those shots. They are also very good at getting the ball inside if/when we over-extend. Pomeroy has an experience ranking for each team, where he basically multiplies the years of experience each player has by the minutes played by each player. LC ranks 311th with an average of 1.25 years of experience. HC ranks 330th with 1.02 years of experience. Btw, the least experienced PL team is actually American, which ranks 339th with an average of 0.94 years of experience. The two least experienced teams in the nation? Duke and Kentucky.
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