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Post by rgs318 on Feb 16, 2018 13:40:31 GMT -5
SCHOOL CONF (OVERALL)
Bucknell.................13-2 (19-9)
Colgate....................9-6 (14-12)
Navy........................9-6 (18-10)
Boston University... 8-7 (12-14)
Lehigh.....................8-7 (13-13)
Holy Cross..............7-8 (10-16)
Lafayette.................6-9 (8-18)
Loyola MD..............6-9 (8-18)
Army West Point.....6-9 (13-13)
American................3-12 (6-20)
from the Patriot League site.
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Post by lou on Feb 16, 2018 13:46:50 GMT -5
SCHOOL CONF (OVERALL) Bucknell.................13-2 (19-9) Colgate....................9-6 (14-12) Navy........................9-6 (18-10) Boston University... 8-7 (12-14) Lehigh.....................8-7 (13-13) Holy Cross..............7-8 (10-16) Lafayette.................6-9 (8-18) Loyola MD..............6-9 (8-18) Army West Point.....6-9 (13-13) American................3-12 (6-20) KenPom version please |
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Post by DiMarz on Feb 16, 2018 14:26:34 GMT -5
Coach Carm thought this team would get 10 wins this season. That was his guess at the pre-season coaches night...I'd say he knows something about the team and league....
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Post by Tom on Feb 16, 2018 14:57:29 GMT -5
Of the teams fighting to avoid the play-in round, HC has a one game advantage, but is also the only one that still has to face Bucknell. Sweeps over Loyola and Army might play big in the tiebreaker scenarios
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 16, 2018 15:40:35 GMT -5
Here's a look at each of the four teams at 7-8 or 6-9, looking at "momentum" (how the team's rank in KenPom has changed over past three games) and what KenPom calculates for the chances of winning each game:
Loyola
was #301 three games ago and is now #323
1-4 in last 5 games with only win coming vs AU at home
6-9 PL record now
40% chance to beat Colgate at home. Colgate won 1st game by 5
45% to beat Lehigh at home (I'll take the surging Lehigh team on that one) Lehigh won 1st game in OT
18% to beat Navy in Annapolis. Navy won 1st game by 9
I don't see Loyola winning more than one game
Army
was #211 now # 243
has lost 3 in a row and 6 of last 7
6-9 PL record now
39% to beat Lehigh on road. Army won 1st game by 12
32% to beat Colgate on the road. Colgate won 1st game by 3
66% to beat Boston U at home. BU won 1st game by 8
I don't see Army winning more than one game
Lafayette
was #273 now # 256
has won 2 of last 3
6-9 PL record now
78% to beat American U at home--go to the window and bet Lafayette with both hands. Laf won 1st game by 9
38% to beat Boston U in a packed Boston venue. BU won 1st game by 3
36% to beat Lehigh on the road. Lehigh won 1st game by 5
Lafayette is odds-on to win 1 game and 2 is not out of the question and I'd say 15% to 20% to win all three.
Holy Cross
was #304 now #308
has won 2 in a row and 3 of 4
7-8 PL record now
21% to beat Bucknell at Hart Center. Bucknell won the first game as easily as it wanted to. I'd give us 30% chance to win.
69% to beat American U at Hart Ctr. HC won 1st game by 3 and I really like our chances in this one.
22% to beat Colgate in NY. Colgate won 1st game by 5. I'll go 40%+ for the HC win.
Holy Cross must beat American U--no doubt of that. 2nd win will be tough . Can't have Lafayette win all three, but I think we are in the driver's seat. What would be the tie-breaker if both HC and Laf end up at 8-10 as we split in regular season?
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Post by cmo on Feb 16, 2018 15:57:37 GMT -5
I think record vs 1st place team; if still tied, then record vs 2nd place team; if still tied, then record vs 3rd place team, ......
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Post by rgs318 on Feb 16, 2018 16:05:46 GMT -5
That tie break could make a win tomorrow very important in case of a tie.
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Post by Tom on Feb 16, 2018 16:16:23 GMT -5
Here's a look at each of the four teams at 7-8 or 6-9, looking at "momentum" (how the team's rank in KenPom has changed over past three games) and what KenPom calculates for the chances of winning each game: Loyola was #301 three games ago and is now #323 1-4 in last 5 games with only win coming vs AU at home 6-9 PL record now 40% chance to beat Colgate at home. Colgate won 1st game by 5 45% to beat Lehigh at home (I'll take the surging Lehigh team on that one) Lehigh won 1st game in OT 18% to beat Navy in Annapolis. Navy won 1st game by 9 I don't see Loyola winning more than one game Army was #211 now # 243 has lost 3 in a row and 6 of last 7 6-9 PL record now 39% to beat Lehigh on road. Army won 1st game by 12 32% to beat Colgate on the road. Colgate won 1st game by 3 66% to beat Boston U at home. BU won 1st game by 8 I don't see Army winning more than one game Lafayette was #273 now # 256 has won 2 of last 3 6-9 PL record now 78% to beat American U at home--go to the window and bet Lafayette with both hands. Laf won 1st game by 9 38% to beat Boston U in a packed Boston venue. BU won 1st game by 3 36% to beat Lehigh on the road. Lehigh won 1st game by 5 Lafayette is odds-on to win 1 game and 2 is not out of the question and I'd say 15% to 20% to win all three. Holy Crosswas #304 now #308 has won 2 in a row and 3 of 4 7-8 PL record now 21% to beat Bucknell at Hart Center. Bucknell won the first game as easily as it wanted to. I'd give us 30% chance to win. 69% to beat American U at Hart Ctr. HC won 1st game by 3 and I really like our chances in this one. 22% to beat Colgate in NY. Colgate won 1st game by 5. I'll go 40%+ for the HC win. Holy Cross must beat American U--no doubt of that. 2nd win will be tough . Can't have Lafayette win all three, but I think we are in the driver's seat. What would be the tie-breaker if both HC and Laf end up at 8-10 as we split in regular season? Probably Lafayette. As CMo points out you go down the ladder and Lafayette swept Colgate which seems a likely top 3 in this scenario. This also assumes that neither Loyola nor Army are also 8-10 in which case the head to head would flip the tiebreaker to HC |
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Post by DiMarz on Feb 16, 2018 17:06:18 GMT -5
If I read the bracket system right, a 6 or 7 seed would be fine..If we were the 6 seed, we would play the 3 seed, on the road...( the winner playing the winner of the 7/10 vs 2 seed)...That bracket avoids Bucknell..A 7 seed gets a home game in the play-in round, (vs 10)..and faces the #2 seed on the road..The other play in bracket, the 8/9 winner goes to #1 Bucknell...
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 16, 2018 19:15:29 GMT -5
Coach Carm thought this team would get 10 wins this season. That was his guess at the pre-season coaches night...I'd say he knows something about the team and league.... Ten wins in the PL or overall? |
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Post by DiMarz on Feb 16, 2018 20:02:01 GMT -5
Coach Carm thought this team would get 10 wins this season. That was his guess at the pre-season coaches night...I'd say he knows something about the team and league.... Ten wins in the PL or overall? If memory serves me, it was overall..and he wasn't sure where they would come from... |
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 16, 2018 21:52:09 GMT -5
Ten wins in the PL or overall? If memory serves me, it was overall..and he wasn't sure where they would come from... For a coach in his third season to say he was hoping to just win ten games, well, that's a problem. |
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Post by hchoops on Feb 16, 2018 23:37:39 GMT -5
Not knowing that 5-6 freshmen had to play major roles
and that your only somewhat experienced big had played very little as a soph
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letsgohc
Climbing Mt. St. James
Posts: 80 
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Post by letsgohc on Feb 17, 2018 7:37:38 GMT -5
Great info on the standings. Can anyone name any princeton offense program with a winning record? Cornell, princeton, richmond, Fairfield, HC and American all have losing records.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Feb 17, 2018 7:48:41 GMT -5
Looking only at this season is a little myopic. Princeton, Richmond and North Dakota each won 20 games last year and went to the post-season. Princeton and Richmond have been successful under Henderson and Mooney over the long-term.
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Post by lou on Feb 17, 2018 11:08:00 GMT -5
Great info on the standings. Can anyone name any princeton offense program with a winning record? Cornell, princeton, richmond, Fairfield, HC and American all have losing records. Can you name an offense that has a winning record? |
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Post by rgs318 on Feb 17, 2018 16:19:51 GMT -5
So far this weekend:
SCHOOL CONF (OVERALL)
Bucknell.................13-2 (20-9)
Navy.......................10-6 (19-10)
Colgate....................9-6 (14-12)
Lehigh.....................8-7 (13-13)
Boston University... .8-8 (12-15)
Holy Cross..............7-9 (10-17)
Lafayette.................7-9 (9-18)
Loyola MD..............6-9 (8-18)
Army West Point.....6-9 (13-13)
American................3-13 (6-21)
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Post by WorcesterGray on Feb 17, 2018 16:40:50 GMT -5
Wouldn't be surprised to see free-falling BU lose out and three or four teams finishing 8-10. Should be an interesting finish.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Feb 18, 2018 16:34:35 GMT -5
SCHOOL CONF (OVERALL) Bucknell.................14-2 (20-9) Navy.......................10-6 (19-10) Colgate....................10-6 (15-12) Lehigh.....................9-7 (14-13) Boston University... .8-8 (12-15) Holy Cross..............7-9 (10-17)Lafayette.................7-9 (9-18) Loyola MD..............6-10 (8-19) Army West Point.....6-10 (13-14) American................3-13 (6-21) Standings at the end of the weekend |
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Post by Tom on Feb 18, 2018 20:23:56 GMT -5
Don't feel like doing all the math for every scenario, but from a best/worst scenario
If HC goes 2-0, the best they can finish is 5th, Actually ties for 4th with Lehigh but lose the tiebreaker
If HC goes 0-2 and Army and Loyola both go 2-0, HC finishes 9th
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Post by WorcesterGray on Feb 21, 2018 21:13:01 GMT -5
SCHOOL CONF (OVERALL) Bucknell.................15-2 (21-9) Colgate....................11-6 (16-12) Navy.......................10-7 (19-11) Lehigh.....................10-7 (15-13) Boston University... .9-8 (13-15) Holy Cross..............8-9 (11-17)Lafayette.................7-10 (9-19) Loyola MD..............6-11 (8-20) Army West Point.....6-11 (13-15) American................3-14 (6-22) Standings through games of Feb 21. |
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Post by HC92 on Feb 21, 2018 21:33:00 GMT -5
Here are Saturday’s matchups for those interested:
Bucknell @ American
HC @ Colgate
Lafayette @ Lehigh
BU @ Army
Loyola @ Navy
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