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Post by dadominate on Oct 18, 2018 7:48:44 GMT -5
If you mean we lost 3 players, one was a walk on, one a big who never played. The third, Karl Charles was having a poor season when he got in trouble. HC was arguably better after he left the team. That lineup was better than your team last season. we are adding at least one good player, Hargis, and maybe a second, Verbeek. Our sophs are expected to improve also. Plus you left out Floyd. But as you say, we will find out soon enough. I didn't "leave out" Floyd; he's first team all PL. He's obviously a very good player. And you would know better than I if the team was better without Charles than with him. And, yes, you won both games over us last season--by three and six points, respectively. Your sophs from last season will improve. So will our freshmen from last year (Iorio, Bragg, Beckton, Little). Hargis is a good player; he played with Sa'eed at St. Aug's. If he's an impact freshman, maybe HC takes a big leap. We're adding two guys we think will impact as well in Alexander and Boonyasith. We'll see. it makes little sense to those who don't follow the hc program closely, but we were definitely a better team without charles. he will go down as somewhat of an enigma. he had an awesome freshman year, but he just never seemed to develop his game much beyond that. i partly attribute it to the fact that he was injured and tried to play through it much of his last season with us (a very bad decision in retrospect). but also partly to the fact that while his game was somewhat unorthodox with the hard drives to his left which seemed to catch opponents off guard the first few times around, he never seemed comfortable going to his right and his moves became pretty predictable. it seems simplistic, but it was almost like the infuriating anthony thompson kamikaze drives to the hole which often drew fouls his freshman year, but were consistently swatted away like gnats throughout the rest of his frustrating career. just an honest take. i'm very optimistic about this year's team, and the loss of charles really was addition by subtraction, as shocking as that would have been to me after his stellar freshman year.
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Post by rgs318 on Oct 18, 2018 8:30:01 GMT -5
I mentioned some time back the opinion of one HC alum (who played back in the late1950s). We were discussing the team in Belfast and he said that he was not impressed with Charles. He set that after his great frosh season he thought that Charles played "soft" and seemed reluctant to hit the boards or to drive through an opponent. I think he would have seen what happened as "addition by subtraction" as well.
I saw him twice try to play through his injury and he showed courage, but clearly was not as effective as many had expected him to be.
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Post by lou on Oct 18, 2018 8:43:01 GMT -5
As I recall there was concern about KCs health at this time last year. Didn't make me feel any better seeing him with a very large ice pack on his knee in the Sacred Heart lobby post game
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Post by hc811215 on Oct 18, 2018 8:49:51 GMT -5
In looking for KenPom preseason rankings which I understand are not out yet, I came across another site I hadn't heard of, barttorvik.com. Interesting that it puts HC second behind American. Here are the rankings and the link to the site. Probably not worth much, but I like that it agrees with my optimism. American 186 HC 197 Lehigh 198 Bucknell 203 Army 206 Boston U 220 Colgate 227 Lafayette 279 Navy 283 Loyola 306 www.barttorvik.com/?conlimit=Pat&state=All&year=2019&sort=
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Post by hchoops on Oct 18, 2018 8:55:47 GMT -5
sure this wasn't a NotJuanJones site ?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 18, 2018 9:09:01 GMT -5
Wild site--even has projections for player stats for the coming year-.
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Post by hchoops on Oct 18, 2018 13:58:14 GMT -5
In looking for KenPom preseason rankings which I understand are not out yet, I came across another site I hadn't heard of, barttorvik.com. Interesting that it puts HC second behind American. Here are the rankings and the link to the site. Probably not worth much, but I like that it agrees with my optimism. American 186 HC 197 Lehigh 198 Bucknell 203 Army 206 Boston U 220 Colgate 227 Lafayette 279 Navy 283 Loyola 306 www.barttorvik.com/?conlimit=Pat&state=All&year=2019&sort=This predicts a 5 way tie for second, all at 10-8 behind 11-7 AU a daring prediction
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Post by hchoops on Oct 18, 2018 14:04:54 GMT -5
Here are the projected individual PL stats Curious that Verbeek is here, but not Hargis few surprises other than Faw projected to play and produce more than Niego. if the site seemingly uses only last season’s stats, hard to figure how they came up with that prediction the 2 highest rated freshmen are both from Navy www.barttorvik.com/allrosters19.php?conlimit=Pat&yvalue=All&type=All&s=15
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Post by bison137 on Oct 18, 2018 14:21:11 GMT -5
In looking for KenPom preseason rankings which I understand are not out yet, I came across another site I hadn't heard of, barttorvik.com. Interesting that it puts HC second behind American. Here are the rankings and the link to the site. Probably not worth much, but I like that it agrees with my optimism. American 186 HC 197 Lehigh 198 Bucknell 203 Army 206 Boston U 220 Colgate 227 Lafayette 279 Navy 283 Loyola 306 www.barttorvik.com/?conlimit=Pat&state=All&year=2019&sort=This predicts a 5 way tie for second, all at 10-8 behind 11-7 AU a daring prediction A silly prediction. Whoever publishes this should stop wasting his time.
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Post by Tom on Oct 18, 2018 14:36:29 GMT -5
Here are the projected individual PL stats Curious that Verbeek is here, but not Hargis few surprises other than Faw projected to play and produce more than Niego. if the site seemingly uses only last season’s stats, hard to figure how they came up with that prediction the 2 highest rated freshmen are both from Navy www.barttorvik.com/allrosters19.php?conlimit=Pat&yvalue=All&type=All&s=15Last year Niego averaged 3.1 pts and 1.9 rebounds in 12.9 minutes per game Faw averaged 4.3 points and 1.7 rebounds in 10.6 minutes per game. Picking Faw for a better year than Niego isn't a total shocker
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Post by hchoops on Oct 18, 2018 14:41:02 GMT -5
What was surprising is why he predicted Faw to play more minutes than Niego when it seems as if most/all of the other predictions are just extensions from last year.
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Post by notjuanjones on Oct 18, 2018 18:54:49 GMT -5
So, just to make sure I was being completely unreasonable the other day, I went back and checked recent PL history to see who was named the preseason Player of the Year, and where his team was ranked going into the year as well. Answers:
SEASON PRESEASON POTY PREDICTION FOR PLAYER'S TEAM 2017-18 Nana Foulland, Bucknell First 2016-17 Tim Kempton, Lehigh First 2015-16 Tim Kempton, Lehigh First 2014-15 Kyle Wilson, Army Second 2013-14 D.J. Irving, Boston First 2012-13 C.J. McCollum, Lehigh First 2011-12 C.J. McCollum, Lehigh Second 2010-11 C.J. McCollum, Lehigh Fifth 2009-10 Marquis Hall, Lehigh Second 2008-09 Garrison Carr, American First 2007-08 Tim Clifford, Holy Cross First 2006-07 Chris McNaughton, Bucknell First 2005-06 Chris McNaughton, Bucknell First 2004-05 Andre Ingram, American Third 2003-04 Jave Meade, Holy Cross First
Two things, before those who always feel compelled to comment on every post everyone makes on every board in the conference respond:
1) I am NOT saying AU should be ranked first in the preseason poll b/c Nelson is preseason POTY. Once again: I would have voted Lance Tejada preseason POTY, not Sa'eed. My point--which the above backs up rather conclusively--is that voters, for the last FIFTEEN YEARS, have seemed to believe there would be at least some correlation between the expected performance of the preseason POTY and his team in that concurrent season. And, thus, if you believe Nelson is the preseason POTY, there should be some corresponding expectation that his team would do well, whatever the reason (which obviously would include other returning players, coaching, etc.) If you don't believe AU is going to be any good--and, clearly, they think AU will improve just marginally over last season's performance--you can't really believe Sa'eed is the best player in the league going into the season.
2) I don't agree with Mr./Ms. Barttorvik. AU should not be ranked number one going into this season. Nor should AU be ranked seventh going into this season. But, as I said, we'll all find out together.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Oct 20, 2018 4:23:03 GMT -5
Maybe the most in depth preview of the PL I have seen yet (at least, for free); HC again picked 5th. I would not worry about these prognostications for HC; I just think it illustrates how tight things might be this year at the top of the league. www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/patriot-2019-preview
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Post by WorcesterGray on Oct 20, 2018 5:45:57 GMT -5
Wow - an impressive preview, thoughtful and detailed. Mahoney's inclusion on the first team is just mildly surprising - he's a real warrior in the paint.
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Post by sader1970 on Oct 20, 2018 6:33:43 GMT -5
Wow! This guy really digs into the details. Very impressive. Thanks for posting Dave.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 20, 2018 7:53:56 GMT -5
That's an amazing analysis
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 20, 2018 8:02:35 GMT -5
Ken Pomeroy's site has now switched to the new year. His projections have HC finishing at 15-15. His projections of future games change as he gets more data and adjusts each team's offensive and defensive efficiency. His projections for the PL are 1-Lehigh 11-7 in PL games 2- Colgate 10-8 3- Bucknell 10-8 4- Holy Cross 10-8 5- American U 9-9 6-Army 9-9 7- Boston U 9-9 8-Navy 8-10 9-Lafayette 7-11 10- Loyola 7-11
He has Lehigh at 11-7 in the conference and Laf & Loy at 7-11, so a tight pack as others have forecasted. HC is 10-8 in conference.
He does not have his all kenpom.com team selected yet. I believe that also can change as the year unfolds
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Post by hchoops on Oct 20, 2018 8:14:55 GMT -5
Thus I presume that Colgate and Bucknell are also at 10-8, unless Colgate is tied for first. How can he put teams ahead of others when they have the same record ? Should list the ties What record does he have for AU ?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 20, 2018 8:34:02 GMT -5
Thus I presume that Colgate and Bucknell are also at 10-8, unless Colgate is tied for first. How can he put teams ahead of others when they have the same record ? Should list the ties What record does he have for AU ? I added the projected conference records in my post above. My guess on ranking teams is that he may have Team A, say, projected to win 9.2 games and Team B projected to win 9.1. They both get rounded to 9 wins but Team A gets ranked higher EDIT: I checked HC and Colgate. He has HC projected to win 9.89 games while Colgate is at 10.05; so both round to 10-8 seasons but Colgate is ranked above HC.
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Post by hchoops on Oct 20, 2018 9:10:00 GMT -5
Since I have never seen 9.89 in a win column, I will take this as we are predicted to be in a 3 way tie for second, 1 game behind first.
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Post by res on Oct 20, 2018 9:10:00 GMT -5
The initial 2018-2019 kenpom ratings are out, though Pomeroy himself will tell you they don't mean a whole heck of a lot.
Lehigh #187 Colgate #205 Bucknell #206 HC #207
About as tight as you can get.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 20, 2018 9:46:09 GMT -5
That #207 (understanding that it is just a meaningless starting point) would represent a vast improvement from last year's #290. KenPom's projection suggests a major improvement in defensive efficiency. Again, we do understand that this is just pure speculation with a ton of assumptions at the start of the year.
I'll guess that KenPom uses some kind of algorithm that factors in the players lost and projected improvement among returnees.
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Post by hchoops on Oct 20, 2018 9:56:41 GMT -5
I believe that both our defensive and offensive efficiencies will significantly improve now that the bulk of minutes will be played by sophs who received big minutes last season, and of course a senior shot blocker who is also a very high % scorer.
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Post by DiMarz on Oct 20, 2018 10:08:28 GMT -5
I think our D will improve as all the players have an off-season to grow..Bigger bodies "take up more space"....and I think the work with Jeff Oliver and staff will help with explosive speed that is so important on D..I'm curious how the eye test will show up when we get to see this new version..
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 20, 2018 10:31:15 GMT -5
I think our D will improve as all the players have an off-season to grow..Bigger bodies "take up more space"....and I think the work with Jeff Oliver and staff will help with explosive speed that is so important on D..I'm curious how the eye test will show up when we get to see this new version.. 8 of the 10 returning players are listed at a higher weight compared to last year's roster. Note the major weight gains in the front court Green= + 2 lbs Copeland= +4 Butler= + 3 Niego= +14 excellent Benzan= +5 LeSann = +3 Faw= +17 very interesting Floyd= +14 frightening Grandison & Zignorski= no change
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