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Post by rgs318 on Sept 6, 2018 17:28:21 GMT -5
60-70% chance:
Boston College by 21 over HOLY CROSS
Delaware by 24 over Lafayette
Villanova by 10 over Lehigh
Richmond by 18 over Fordham
50-60% chance:
Sacred Heart by 3 over Bucknell
New Hampshire by 3 over Colgate
Georgetown by 3 over Campbell
Not scheduled for Week #2
Yale
Dartmouth
Harvard
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Post by rickii on Sept 6, 2018 18:03:28 GMT -5
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Post by A Clock Tower Purple on Sept 6, 2018 18:17:18 GMT -5
The same outfit that had UMass favored, by a point, on the road, over BC. Tells you everything you need to know about Bassett - whoever they are...
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Post by hcpride on Sept 6, 2018 18:31:45 GMT -5
I know UNH was smacked down by Maine (in Maine) , but UNH was supposed to be a CAA power this year. I see them beating Colgate by a substantially wider margin than 3. Their next game is University of Colorado and an 0-3 start would be very disappointing (and that is with some very tough games remaining).
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Sept 6, 2018 19:09:08 GMT -5
Not sure why RGS posts these spreads. Better off using what Vegas says.
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Post by sader1970 on Sept 6, 2018 19:14:32 GMT -5
and that would be what?
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Sept 6, 2018 19:17:39 GMT -5
BC -43 Delaware -16 Villanova -9 Richmond -24.5 Sacred Heart -2 New Hampshire -13.5 Campbell -1 |
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Post by sader1970 on Sept 6, 2018 19:19:42 GMT -5
I kind of like Rob's posting the lines but if you have regular access to Vegas lines, that'd add interest to this board, IMHO. Thanks.
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Post by rgs318 on Sept 6, 2018 20:07:21 GMT -5
Not sure why RGS posts these spreads. Better off using what Vegas says. I would have thought you read the many places where each year I posted..."for entertainment only." I thought that was a pretty clear reason.   |
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Post by rgs318 on Sept 6, 2018 20:10:06 GMT -5
The 21 pt spread was a bit of a shock for me as well. Here is Bassett's comment from the man himself:
"The Bassett football model is a system for ranking the relative strengths of football teams. A key feature of this model is that it recognizes that if two teams could play more than once the same team would not always win (there is an element of chance involved). The system is based on a simple model of a football game. For a given match-up of two teams, a number of model games are simulated by a computer and the average scores and the percentage of times each team wins is computed. Each week during the football season the best fit of offensive and defensive strengths is found for each team consistent with the actual scores. I do include considerations for home field advantage and for the possibility that teams may score less than expected in a blow-out if they choose to run out time instead of score more points in the latter part of a game."
I doubt that Vegas does that...but who knows?
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Post by A Clock Tower Purple on Sept 6, 2018 20:30:45 GMT -5
Games aren't played on computers. They're played on grass. And him saying he allows for home field advantage is laughable since that would have made horrendous UMass a 4 pt fave over BC on a neutral field
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Post by sader1970 on Sept 6, 2018 21:38:46 GMT -5
Well, let's just see who is more closely correct on Saturday, Massey, Bassett or the Vegas line as provided by SOV.
While football is not played on a computer, there are also obvious vagaries of people who bet in Vegas and the bettors' assumptions about the teams. Aren't all these lines just best guesses, especially early in a season?
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Post by A Clock Tower Purple on Sept 6, 2018 22:33:34 GMT -5
A point spread is not a predicted number of points a team will win or lose by. It's a number generated by oddsmakers to attract equal betting on both sides. This is why you see #'s move. If public is pounding the favorite for example, the number will be adjusted up to try to draw action on the 'dog to even out the plays.
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Post by sader1970 on Sept 7, 2018 9:41:38 GMT -5
Exactly. So, Vegas odds are basically a public opinion poll, no real science behind it. That's why they say bet with your head, not your heart but too many do the latter.
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