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Post by unhfan on Dec 27, 2018 21:43:49 GMT -5
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Post by hchoops on Dec 27, 2018 21:53:31 GMT -5
Maybe not so expert for our PL
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Dec 27, 2018 22:01:54 GMT -5
I would not put any stock into this.
It’s an exercise for page views.
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Post by CHC8485 on Dec 27, 2018 22:27:19 GMT -5
In The Athletic today, Ken Pomeroy gave a run down of all 32 conferences and listed teams with at least a 10% probability of winning their conference. He did this last year and was apparently 15 for 32, which he said is about what you should expect from probabilities at this point of the season (basically the end of non-conference play).
He listed the conferences in order from “least up for grabs to most up for grabs.” The PL came in as the 6th most up for grabs with 4 teams with at least a 10% chance to win the conference. Here’s his take on the PL:
I’m still not sold on Lehigh being the favorite but it will make for an interesting PL season.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Dec 27, 2018 22:53:47 GMT -5
Percentages for the four add up to more than 100%......
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Post by hc87 on Dec 27, 2018 23:38:04 GMT -5
Percentages for the four add up to more than 100%...... Numbahs, schmumbahs....  |
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Dec 27, 2018 23:51:26 GMT -5
Quick tidbit on the Patriot League: this will be the conference's first .500+ composite OOC W-L record since 2007-08. Yes, I know it's a weak league with weak teams with a weak OOC schedule, etc, etc, etc.
EDIT: Spoke too soon--this could have been a .500+ season --doesn't look like it's going to happen now even with the wins versus non D-1 teams.
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Post by bison137 on Dec 28, 2018 2:40:34 GMT -5
Quick tidbit on the Patriot League: this will be the conference's first .500+ composite OOC W-L record since 2007-08. Yes, I know it's a weak league with weak teams with a weak OOC schedule, etc, etc, etc. You might add that this year's collective PL SOS is much better than it was in 2007-08. |
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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 28, 2018 7:16:05 GMT -5
I’m still not sold on Lehigh being the favorite but it will make for an interesting PL season. Lehigh has been shooting the ball very well. In fact, they lead the country in 3FG%. |
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Post by CHC8485 on Dec 28, 2018 8:32:01 GMT -5
Percentages for the four add up to more than 100%...... Can’t sneak anything past you. He explained that: |
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Post by Tom on Dec 28, 2018 8:40:44 GMT -5
Percentages for the four add up to more than 100%...... Can’t sneak anything past you. He explained that: Some coaches ask 110 percent from their players 40 + 30 + 28 + 22 = 120 seems like a lot, even allowing for ties. Pomeroy's 4th place percentage is better than PL pre-season 5th. Moved up a spot before the first league game |
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Post by CHC8485 on Dec 28, 2018 9:07:14 GMT -5
As our eyeball test says that the PL will be very tight this year, with 4 teams very close in his rankings, I suspect his model includes many possibilities for ties, i.e., (if I counted right, 'cause I an't smart enough to remember how to do this with a formula) there are 6 possible combinations for 2 team ties, 4 combinations for a 3 team tie, and there is a possibility of a 4 team tie. That's 11 additional outcomes with multiple teams wining the conference.
I'll let the mathematicians explain the details. But I hope it's as fun and competitive as it's shaping up to be.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 28, 2018 9:28:43 GMT -5
While American is separated a little from the top four in the pack, believe they will be in the mix as well by season's end. American "Four Factors"
Offensive Category, Rank EFG%, 100th - Good TO%, 90th - Good OR%, 276th - Fair FTR, 63rd - Good
Defensive . . . EFG%, 20th - Excellent TO%, 259th - Fair
DR%, 281st - Poor FTR, 217th - Average
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Dec 28, 2018 10:01:33 GMT -5
American is an interesting study as all their metrics look good except for OR% & defensive OR% which are mediocre and the Eagles are also not good free throw shooters. American at 6-4 has averaged a 13 point win in 6 wins versus a 5 point loss in the 4 losses. American's two ignominious losses were by 2 points at Howard and by 1 point at home versus the Mount.
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Post by hchoops on Dec 28, 2018 10:04:56 GMT -5
“Ignominious” ?
Wow !
That is vey, very bad.
”Causing Public disgrace or shame “
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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 28, 2018 10:12:55 GMT -5
American's numbers need to be taken with a little extra salt since they were compiled against a very weak OOC schedule. By the same token, Bucknell's numbers were accumulated vs. pretty strong competition. Bucknell "Four Factors"
Offensive Category, Rank EFG%, 90th - Good TO%, 92nd - Good OR%, 329th - Poor FTR, 90th - Good
Defensive . . . EFG%, 123rd - Good TO%, 280th - Fair DR%, 260th - Fair FTR, 129th - Good
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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 28, 2018 10:16:23 GMT -5
Lehigh "Four Factors" Offensive Category, RankEFG%, 45th - Excellent TO%, 195th - Average OR%, 283rd - Poor FTR, 230th - Fair
Defensive . . . EFG%, 33rd - Excellent TO%, 313th - Poor DR%, 228th - Fair FTR, 158th - Average
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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 28, 2018 10:20:04 GMT -5
Colgate "Four Factors" Offensive Category, Rank EFG%, 81st - Good TO%, 214th - Fair OR%, 164th - Average FTR, 215th - Fair
Defensive . . . EFG%, 65th - Excellent TO%, 295th - Poor DR%, 226th - Fair FTR, 137th, Good
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Post by WorcesterGray on Dec 28, 2018 10:35:59 GMT -5
Holy Cross "Four Factors"
Offensive Category, RankEFG%, 138th - Good TO%, 34th - Excellent OR%, 326th - Poor FTR, 343rd - Poor Defensive . . .EFG%, 125th - Good TO%, 42nd - Excellent DR%, 332nd - Poor FTR, 109th - Good |
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Post by notjuanjones on Dec 29, 2018 1:21:19 GMT -5
American's numbers need to be taken with a little extra salt since they were compiled against a very weak OOC schedule. By the same token, Bucknell's numbers were accumulated vs. pretty strong competition. Bucknell "Four Factors"
Offensive Category, Rank EFG%, 90th - Good TO%, 92nd - Good OR%, 329th - Poor FTR, 90th - Good
Defensive . . . EFG%, 123rd - Good TO%, 280th - Fair DR%, 260th - Fair FTR, 129th - Good
it's fair to point out Bucknell's played tougher OOC opponents. I don't know that it makes a lot of difference once you get to PL play. PL Adjusted Offensive Efficiency per KenPom: 1) Lehigh 106.1 (103) 2) Bucknell 105 (T-129) 3) Colgate 104.4 (140) 4) American 101.3 (203) 5) Holy Cross 101.1 (207) 6) Loyola 100.9 (209) 7) Boston 98.6 (257) 8) Lafayette 97.8 (273) 9) Army 95.8 (300) 10) Navy 95.3 (307) PL Adjusted Defense: 1) Holy Cross 100.9 (T-128) 2) Boston 102.9 (T-170) 3) Colgate 103.4 (T-180) 4) Bucknell 103.7 (187) 5) Lehigh 104 (190) 6) American 104.3 (204) 7) Army 104.9 (216) 8) Navy 108.7 (301) 9) Lafayette 110.9 (T-323) 10) Loyola 111.5 (T-333) I don't think there's a whole lot of difference between the top 5-6 teams, and think any of the top teams could finish anywhere from 1-6 depending on injuries, etc. But if you think Bucknell's definitely better because of their OOC performance, okay. |
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Post by hchoops on Dec 29, 2018 8:08:46 GMT -5
NJJ
I think Bucknell is definitely better because of how they played in their non conference sched, esp vs OSU and TCU
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