Mon (2/4) and Wed (2/6) PL Basketball, You Pick...

Lehigh
Army
American
BU
Bucknell

Lehigh
Army
Navy
BU
Bucknell

Colgate @ Lehigh
Army @ Holy Cross (Can't believe despite everything that I am the first to pick the saders)*
American @ Navy 
Lafayette @ Boston University 
Bucknell @ Loyola 

*= while the last few games, I picked with my heart over my head, I really think we'll beat the Black Knights. Head and heart this week. Carmody will be back on the bench; despite so many being appalled at Matt's quick trip to the bench, it was his first game back and from what I saw, at least some of those fouls looked questionable - he'll be a much bigger contributor vs. Army; everyone on the team, players and coaches are probably both sick of losing and embarrassed about playing below their potential and they are going to take it out on someone; it's a home game. Only caveat: if McCarthy is reffing, all bets are off as he will be looking to thank the cadets for their service.   

LEHIGH
HOLY CROSS
NAVY
B U
BUCKNELL

Lehigh
HC
American
BU
Bucknell

Lehigh
Holy Cross
Boston Univ
Bucknell
American

LEHIGH

HC

NAVY

BU

BUCKNELL

Colgate
HC
Navy
Boston
'Hounds

Lehigh-- Colgate won game 1 in NY by 13 but is 1-4 in PL road games. Lehigh has by far the #1 offense in PL play and plays with basically 2 subs. Cohen & Tejada #1 and #3 in PL games 3 point shooting. Lehigh down 13 at the half came back to beat Army. Lehigh 53.5% effective fg pctg versus Navy was the team's only PL game below 58%--this is a consistent well-balanced offensive team.

Holy Cross-- Okay, I'm going to give our Crusaders another chance. Army crushed HC in first game as we could not contain Matt Wilson. All of Army's wins have come on the foul line: in 6 wins Army is 81-122 on free throws versus 30-44 for opponents, an 8+ point advantage per game. In 4 losses Army is 29-46 versus 47-62 for opponents. Now we know about the correlation between taking and making free throws and winning games but I think Army's numbers are really striking. HC does not commit a lot of fouls (#3 defense in PL play for FTA/FGA) and hopefully can keep Army off the line. HC is 9-3 when eff fg pctg is 53.8% or better and 3-8 when it's at 52.9% or lower. Army is #303 in opponent's eff fg pctg but is doing better in PL games. Of course we know about our offensive rebounding: HC 0-7 when off reb % is 16.7% (i.e. grabbing just 1 of 6 own missed shots) . We also have that correlation on turnovers" 8-2 when TO % is 15.4% or lower and 4-9 when it's 16.1% and higher. With all these stats the real summary, from Mr Obvious, is that the Crusaders need to play better than they have been [laying to win. HC's eff fg pctg has been below 50% 3 of the past 4 games (56.6% in the win over Navy) and opponent eff fg pctg has been 52.8% or higher in 7 of last 8 games (49.1% in the win over Navy). Here's a real anomaly to ponder: in OOC play Caleb Green shot a stellar .611 on twos and a sub-optimal .256 on threes. In Pl play he has shot a puzzling .333 on twos but an outstanding .463 on threes. Hard to figure that change. Floyd-Grandison-Butler- Green: need 3 of the 4 to have good offensive games and we need better defense over all.

American U-- AU has won 4 games in a row. With Sam Iorio out, Jacob Boonyasith has gotten more minutes and has found his range on threes, going 8-15 in the last 2 games after being 5-24 to start the season. AU beat Navy by 8 in the first game in DC. Navy has the #10 offense in PL play and is a very weak shooting team. Cam Davis at .381 is the only one among the 4 most frequent 3 point shooters over .350. Evan Wieck has been playing very very well for Navywith an O-Rating over 100 in every PL game and he is the conference's #1 in FG Pctg and OR %.

Boston U-- Lafayette has lost its last 3 games and all were at home. Laf is #10 in PL games in offensive rebounding, in drawing fouls, and in 2 point percentage. Laf is #2 in 3 point percentage and relies on 3 point scoring more than any other PL team. BU has won its last two games including an upset at Colgate driven by Colgate turnovers.

Bucknell-- Bucknell won at home versus Loyola by only three points but that was one of the Bison's worst 2 point shooting games and Loy was hitting in close. Last game, without JIMMY SOTOS (thanks for the correction), Bison slaughtered Lafayette. Bucknell has won 11 of 12 games since Loyola joined the conference. With Sestina out, Walter Ellis has been getting a lot more minutes but the freshman has struggled, going 0-8 on threes in those 2 games. We'll see if he still gets his minutes and maybe finds his range. Bucknell does have a deep bench. Loyola has an effective FG% of 50.5% and Bucknell is 10-1 when opponents shoot under 51%.


Note: In PL conference games the home team has won 64% of the time, the highest home team winning percentage since 2009-2010

Lehigh
HC
Navy
BU
Bucknell

Lehigh
Army
American
BU
Bucknell