|
|
Post by rgs318 on Sept 22, 2019 19:10:43 GMT -5
80-90% chance of victory
(63) Memphis by 10.5 over (96) Navy
70-80% chance of victory
(42) Dartmouth by 32.5 over (208) Colgate
(59) Syracuse by 10.5 over (168) HOLY CROSS [Thank goodness the spread is under 140  ]
(17) Princeton by 38.5 over (243) Bucknell
60-70% chance of victory
(24) Harvard by 28 over (220) Brown
(133) New Hampshire by 7 over (164) Duquesne
(99) Yale by 14 over (176) Cornell
(139) Penn by 17.5 over (222) Lafayette
(151) Richmond by 7 over (211) Fordham
* (the number in brackets is the Bassett national rank - among all college football teams)
**No line on (219) Lehigh vs Merrimack (Merrimack (2-2) has not defeated any D1 team),
|
|
|
|
Post by Sons of Vaval on Sept 22, 2019 19:52:01 GMT -5
It’s hard to take any of this seriously when Syracuse is considered just 10.5 points better than HC.
|
|
|
|
Post by A Clock Tower Purple on Sept 22, 2019 20:09:48 GMT -5
Rob - help me understand something about Bassett, as I have zero clue who/what they are: how can Memphis as a just a 3.5 pt fave have a better "chance of victory" over the 3 or more TD faves? Makes zero sense.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2019 20:22:09 GMT -5
80-90% chance of victory
(63) Memphis by 3.5 over (96) Navy
70-80% chance of victory
(42) Dartmouth by 32.5 over (208) Colgate
(59) Syracuse by 10.5 over (168) HOLY CROSS [Thank goodness the spread is under 140 ]
(17) Princeton by 38.5 over (243) Bucknell
60-70% chance of victory
(24) Harvard by 28 over (220) Brown
(133) New Hampshire by 7 over (164) Duquesne
(99) Yale by 14 over (176) Cornell
(139) Penn by 17.5 over (222) Lafayette
(151) Richmond by 7 over (211) Fordham
* (the number in brackets is the Bassett national rank - among all college football teams)
**No line on (219) Lehigh vs Merrimack (Merrimack (2-2) has not defeated any D1 team), -10.5? Put me down for 200k and will work on refinancing my house before Saturday. |
|
|
|
Post by hiltonheadcrusader on Sept 22, 2019 20:34:14 GMT -5
80-90% chance of victory
(63) Memphis by 3.5 over (96) Navy
70-80% chance of victory
(42) Dartmouth by 32.5 over (208) Colgate
(59) Syracuse by 10.5 over (168) HOLY CROSS [Thank goodness the spread is under 140 ]
(17) Princeton by 38.5 over (243) Bucknell
60-70% chance of victory
(24) Harvard by 28 over (220) Brown
(133) New Hampshire by 7 over (164) Duquesne
(99) Yale by 14 over (176) Cornell
(139) Penn by 17.5 over (222) Lafayette
(151) Richmond by 7 over (211) Fordham
* (the number in brackets is the Bassett national rank - among all college football teams)
**No line on (219) Lehigh vs Merrimack (Merrimack (2-2) has not defeated any D1 team), -10.5? Put me down for 200k and will work on refinancing my house before Saturday. Thanks for the laugh |
|
|
|
Post by rgs318 on Sept 22, 2019 20:49:27 GMT -5
Rob - help me understand something about Bassett, as I have zero clue who/what they are: how can Memphis as a just a 3.5 pt fave have a better "chance of victory" over the 3 or more TD faves? Makes zero sense. HdEre is a link to the Bassett Football Model. gmbassett.nfshost.com/football/He does not give the precise spread because he says the model is NOT for betting purposes. If it is 10.5 (not sure why I posted 3,5) it might be anywhere from 8 to about 13 points. The score he posted for Memphis/Navy was 35 to 24.5. He points the actual spread right after the games (late Sat or starkly Sun. Is that helpful? |
|
|
|
Post by efg72 on Sept 22, 2019 20:51:25 GMT -5
Syracuse vs Holy Cross very early line looks like 29 1/2
Navy gets 11 1/2 vs Memphis
The Syracuse preview was straight forward with one great comment back in May-“Gordie Lockbaum ain’t walking through that door”
|
|
|
|
Post by rgs318 on Sept 22, 2019 20:51:48 GMT -5
PS: If you are wondering Merrimack is playing in Division 1 this year or the first time. They have lost to 2 D1 opponents and have beaten 2 lower division teams. They are not yet rated by Bassett, who rates only Di and DiA games (according to his site).
Want a different spread? Massey has Syracuse winning against HC 47-6 with 100% chance of a Syracuse victory. (Still closer than the 140 points one poster here actually predicted...unless he was just sounding off and not serious.)
|
|
|
|
Post by A Clock Tower Purple on Sept 22, 2019 20:57:41 GMT -5
In what you posted it reads "Memphis by 3.5 over Navy". That's where I saw it. How can a 3.5 fave be "80-90%" chance to win, yet Havard for example, favored by 28 has just a "60-70%" of winning. Makes no sense whatsover.
|
|
|
|
Post by rgs318 on Sept 22, 2019 20:59:53 GMT -5
In what you posted it reads "Memphis by 3.5 over Navy". That's where I saw it. How can a 3.5 fave be "80-90%" chance to win, yet Havard for example, favored by 28 has just a "60-70%" of winning. Makes no sense whatsover. It should be 10.5 points.The typo was mine and I do not know where it came from. Sorry. As I said above, the percent means winning by that spread. Bigger spreads often do not reach that level, hence a lower %. |
|
|
|
Post by hcpride on Sept 22, 2019 21:59:27 GMT -5
.Want a different spread? Massey has Syracuse winning against HC 47-6 with 100% chance of a Syracuse victory. (Still closer than the 140 points one poster here actually predicted...unless he was just sounding off and not serious.) You can safely assume that somebody who writes that we have no business playing a second FBS team this year and the spread v Syracuse will be like a zillion or 140 is not to be taken literally. Beyond that, the 29.5 line referenced by efg72 sounds reasonable (assuming Syracuse is uninterested in running it up) |
|
|
|
Post by joe on Sept 23, 2019 6:15:12 GMT -5
Have a feeling this will be the last time we have two FBS games in one year, and the last time we’ll play an FBS game this late in the season. Main concern is avoiding bad injuries.
|
|
|
|
Post by hcpride on Sept 23, 2019 6:24:33 GMT -5
In the context of the this being our 2nd FBS, the quality of the opponent, and the 4th game of the season IMHO this is the worst scheduled game in HC history.
That being said lets burn the clock, stay healthy, pick up a check, and head back to Worcester. As far as scoring and blowout management go one hopes things go similarly to the BC debacle.
|
|
|
|
Post by nycrusader2010 on Sept 23, 2019 6:52:32 GMT -5
Have a feeling this will be the last time we have two FBS games in one year, and the last time we’ll play an FBS game this late in the season. Main concern is avoiding bad injuries. Not to worried about the injury risk. Dont think Syracuse will have a reason to play anything other than a very clean game if you know what I mean. We got out of Annapolis relatively unscathed on that front, cut-blocking and all. As far as schedule, remember we're in a seven-team league and this is a year where 12 games were allowed. 2 FBS definitely the exception, not the rule. |
|
|
|
Post by rgs318 on Sept 23, 2019 7:12:04 GMT -5
I hope you are right about that. Having Syracuse as a "warm up" for Bucknell is certainly interesting.
I still remember the 16-19 loss to Bucknell at home last year. A repeat of that could be devastating.
|
|
|
|
Post by efg72 on Sept 23, 2019 7:18:11 GMT -5
Personally I like the 2 FBS games. Given the lead time for scheduling these games makes it unclear how some teams will be, but if we can schedule the traditional lower level MAC teams, Rice,UMASS, UCONN, BC every few years and the academies we have a very strong FCS schedule.
For those who are upset by the level of play in the PL these additions can make for an enjoyable schedule for the players, fans and the community at large. And Yes I think the Luth and the schedule do more to recruit better players than the academic reputation of the school.
|
|
|
|
Post by hcpride on Sept 23, 2019 7:45:57 GMT -5
Have a feeling this will be the last time we have two FBS games in one year, and the last time we’ll play an FBS game this late in the season. Main concern is avoiding bad injuries. Not to worried about the injury risk. Dont think Syracuse will have a reason to play anything other than a very clean game if you know what I mean. We got out of Annapolis relatively unscathed on that front, cut-blocking and all. As far as schedule, remember we're in a seven-team league and this is a year where 12 games were allowed. 2 FBS definitely the exception, not the rule. Injury talk v bigger/faster/stronger FBS teams seems to hit a nerve here at Crossports. My greatest injury concern v teams like BC or Syracuse is if our offensive line is overwhelmed in pass protection and we throw in obvious situations. Injuries happen in any/every game but it is the QB position v Syracuse that particularly concerns me. Since we'll play it very conservatively and grind out the clock to the greatest extent possible (to include running in otherwise obvious throwing situations) we'll limit that particular exposure no doubt. (Fans who rail about our conservative play-calling on 3rd downs v Syracuse just won't be getting it.) |
|
|
|
Post by CHC8485 on Sept 23, 2019 7:48:41 GMT -5
I hope you are right about that. Having Syracuse as a "warm up" for Bucknell is certainly interesting. I still remember the 16-19 loss to Bucknell at home last year. A repeat of that could be devastating. Good point. Playing Syracuse will get the boys used to playing against hideous orange and blue uniforms.  |
|
|
|
Post by hcpride on Sept 23, 2019 7:57:55 GMT -5
I hope you are right about that. Having Syracuse as a "warm up" for Bucknell is certainly interesting. I still remember the 16-19 loss to Bucknell at home last year. A repeat of that could be devastating. Not ideal and that is for sure.
One win OOC and one (or less) loss PL seemed to be the general and realistic hope for HC this season. We are on track to hit that goal. Can't afford an awful loss to a team we should beat to happen this year though.
|
|
|
|
Post by hc87 on Sept 23, 2019 11:30:33 GMT -5
This was a brutal schedule ( 2 very solid FBS programs, Ivy contendah, historically strong CAA program, 5 of the first 6 on the road etc etc) even in the best of times. We have to keep that in mind moving forward this season. Pure conjecture but I think only a handful of FCS teams across the country would be bettah than 1-3 after a slate of at Navy, UNH, at Yale and at Syracuse.
Yes, the offense has been an issue but we have to give them a few more games, particularly against the rest of schedule save for the Orangemen, before drastic steps (new OC etc) are taken imo.
|
|
|
|
Post by cruskater31 on Sept 26, 2019 12:40:02 GMT -5
Not to worried about the injury risk. Dont think Syracuse will have a reason to play anything other than a very clean game if you know what I mean. We got out of Annapolis relatively unscathed on that front, cut-blocking and all. As far as schedule, remember we're in a seven-team league and this is a year where 12 games were allowed. 2 FBS definitely the exception, not the rule. Injury talk v bigger/faster/stronger FBS teams seems to hit a nerve here at Crossports. My greatest injury concern v teams like BC or Syracuse is if our offensive line is overwhelmed in pass protection and we throw in obvious situations. Injuries happen in any/every game but it is the QB position v Syracuse that particularly concerns me. Since we'll play it very conservatively and grind out the clock to the greatest extent possible (to include running in otherwise obvious throwing situations) we'll limit that particular exposure no doubt. (Fans who rail about our conservative play-calling on 3rd downs v Syracuse just won't be getting it.) The interesting note, is it appeared we were beat more by speed (think outside off-tackle runs against BC and the option at Navy) than strength. I agree we will be super conservative on 3rd downs. I envision 4th down as well  I do imagine Holy Cross will try a few 1st down draw plays for negative yards! |
|
]
I do imagine Holy Cross will try a few 1st down draw plays for negative yards!