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Post by WorcesterGray on Feb 13, 2020 9:41:14 GMT -5
Seriously speaking; they've just got to get better defensively, one way or the other. This is one of the two things we should genuinely worry about. Holy Cross is currently ranked 348th in opponent EFG% and 350th in unadjusted defensive efficiency. The only D1 teams worse in both categories are Tennessee Martin, Houston Baptist, and Chicago State - that's the company we keep.
I'm hopeful that the incoming freshmen - especially at the point and in the post - will provide a significant defensive improvement over what we have experienced in both areas this season. It won't matter how many points we put on the board unless this happens, and it needs to happen sooner rather than later. But I share SoV's concern that this may truly be a coaching issue, and rightly the burden of responsibility will shift in 2020-21 to Nelson. If he can't figure this out pronto, he needs to have the self-awareness and humility to get somebody on the staff who is a defense-first guy, even if his thinking differs from Nelson's - a staff that resembles a "team of rivals" in this respect is healthier than one in which the assistants are all unquestioningly in lockstep with the head coach on every aspect of play.
The other concern - the 800-lb. gorilla in the room - is whether Pridgen or Wade chooses to leave after the year is done. It is encouraging to see them both play hard all the time, every game - and I hope that means they have bought in to what Nelson is trying to do. And I hope that the rising seniors (especially Butler) use their leadership role to encourage these two to stick with it, because I do believe we will be significantly better next season. We need to see that improvement early on at the defensive end.
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Post by rgs318 on Feb 13, 2020 9:55:11 GMT -5
IIRC, the type of defense that Nelson's teams played at Florida, looked like they used "perpetual motion" (and had a number of fouls as a result in every game). HC does not have enough bodies to do anything like that. With a larger team next year, things may well be different. Clearly better defense is a key to any improvement.
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Post by hchoops on Feb 13, 2020 9:55:52 GMT -5
Joe’s 30 pts on 14 shots (11-14, 7-9, 1-1 from 3 ) has to be one of the more efficient lines of the season, esp for a 6’4” wing eff- 24.0 usage -27.90
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Post by classof83 on Feb 13, 2020 10:37:31 GMT -5
I don't think the Lowder thing is going to go away until we start getting wins. I don't know what happened and it may be right that Lowder and BN were never going to see eye to eye, but IMO BN may come to regret not making it work.
If we are lucky, we will win 1 or 2 more games this season - a total of 5 wins. Next year BN is going to rely on a Freshman point guard to play substantial minutes. Hopefully Johnson makes an impact right away but he was not highly recruited and signed late in the recruiting cycle - not a recipe for immediate success. If BN had faith that JR was going to be able to contribute by next season he would be playing him more than a senior who is not a point guard and will be gone next year. If Lowder was here, he would be in year two of his development. I suspect we are going to see AB continue to play minutes at the point next year.
In BN's third year he loses AB, MF and probably CN, hoping that the incoming Freshman will be an upgrade from these 3 in their sophomore season - a big hope IMO. And who knows what the story is with KC. JP is a great player, but is he going to be so much greater in two years that he can make up from what is lost from the other 3 guys who graduate. And unless there is drastic improvement, I only see BV as a role player spotting minutes for others. And RW is a decent defender who only wants to shoot 3's and avoids going inside at any opportunity.
If this team is not markedly better in BN's third year there will be pitchforks at the gate.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Feb 13, 2020 10:53:15 GMT -5
I don't think the Lowder thing is going to go away until we start getting wins. I don't know what happened and it may be right that Lowder and BN were never going to see eye to eye, but IMO BN may come to regret not making it work. Lowder may regret it even more.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 13, 2020 10:54:41 GMT -5
IIRC, the type of defense that Nelson's teams played at Florida, looked like they used "perpetual motion" (and had a number of fouls as a result in every game). HC does not have enough bodies to do anything like that. With a larger team next year, things may ell be different. Clearly better defense is a key to any improvement. I’m not sure if we can draw many conclusions about his time at Florida — if any — since that was more than 15 years ago and he was a player, not a coach. Looking at Marquette’s defense would be a better way to consider Nelson’s defensive aptitude.
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Post by nhteamer on Feb 13, 2020 10:56:26 GMT -5
I like the BN hire
I love HC
We do suck, however
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Post by hchoops on Feb 13, 2020 10:58:28 GMT -5
I like the BN hire I love HC We do suck, however If nothing else, always succinct
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Post by classof83 on Feb 13, 2020 11:01:32 GMT -5
I don't think the Lowder thing is going to go away until we start getting wins. I don't know what happened and it may be right that Lowder and BN were never going to see eye to eye, but IMO BN may come to regret not making it work. Lowder may regret it even more.
Lowder's regrets give me no solace if we continue to lose games.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 13, 2020 11:05:39 GMT -5
We gave up 89 points in regulation to a bad basketball team. I’m just stating what should be fairly obvious that Nelson is showing early signs of not being able to teach defense. However, the offense has been better as the season has progressed. Did Lehigh just score again? He has one guy on the roster who is a capable defender, and that player is a freshman. There’s a difference between “teaching defense” and being a miracle worker. We’ll see if he can “teach defense” when he has some more D1 players on the roster. Please. Yeah, the talent is pretty bad on this roster. No one is denying that. But, we rank third from the bottom in all of Division 1 in defensive efficiency. A good teacher of defense wouldn't have a team ranked this poorly regardless of who is being trotted out there every game. I have always thought that defense, rather than offense, doesn't take as much skill. Despite you continuing to fawn over Nelson, your blinded to the fact that he might not have the defensive coaching chops to get us to where we need to be. He should cut loose one of the assistants after this season and bring in a more seasoned coach (H/T ihoop).
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Post by Ray on Feb 13, 2020 11:13:07 GMT -5
He should cut loose one of the assistants after this season and bring in a more seasoned coach (H/T ihoop). RJ Evans played for Ralph Willard and coached under Shaka Smart. He should know something about coaching defense.
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Post by lou on Feb 13, 2020 11:34:52 GMT -5
Joe Kennedy knows a lot of very good out of bounds plays. It seems Nelson has never used a single one. Perhaps he's not consulting with assistants, yet.
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Post by rgs318 on Feb 13, 2020 11:49:12 GMT -5
Perhaps the priority for the assistants at this point is recruiting and "sealing the deal" for next year. with those recruits. Also, I have never seen this team practice. I find that what you learn there (by quietly watching) can tell you a lot about the coach, his relationship with the players and his priorities as he develops his program. I also wish that the coach shared more with his fans, but that is something that, at this point, I see as low on his priorities (and any associated "to do" lists). .
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 13, 2020 11:52:46 GMT -5
Joe Kennedy knows a lot of very good out of bounds plays. It seems Nelson has never used a single one. Perhaps he's not consulting with assistants, yet. Is Kennedy the defensive guy on he staff? I know he was with Carmody, and he gives the appearance that he's this guy based on his activity on the bench when we are on defense. Inbounding the ball is far down the list of current issues.
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Post by Tom on Feb 13, 2020 11:56:39 GMT -5
I got an idea for this summer if you're up to it.
I want to take Green, Grandison, Hargis and Lowder and go on a barnstorming tour around the US, playing exhibitions against a bunch of non power conference schools. I'll be a Guy Lewis "roll the balls out" kind of coach. I like my foursome, just need a 5 man. How's your D? Can you score down on the low blocks? I'll call the team Carmody's Castaways, with the name emblazoned on the front of the jerseys. On the back, above the number it will read "Inherited by Nelson". But don't worry - you can wear yours inside out. You just might need to have thick skin if some message board posters say you're not D-1 quality. You in?
Something that could be a factor in close games are the two technicals that NAD will pick up every game
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Post by Tom on Feb 13, 2020 12:22:38 GMT -5
nelson used his one get out of jail free card with the benching of lowder that was completely unrelated to his on the court play or the needs of the team. nelson won't get another pass like this if he can't get along with another very talented player upon whom the WHOLE TEAM depends. he will need to learn it's not always "my way or the highway" in 2020. some compromise and humility are necessary when rebuilding a program. I've asked this before after similar posts, but never really got an answer - Not including the first half in Florida, do we know that the games Lowder did not play in were a benching for something completely unrelated to play on the court? - Do we know that those games riding the bench are the reason Lowder is transferring? These points have been thrown around the board as facts, but I haven't heard anything from inside the program. I know some people here are privy to "inside information" and consider it improper to reveal the source. Is that what this is?
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Post by timholycross on Feb 13, 2020 12:39:15 GMT -5
Same question, more or less, with Hargis. In his case, it would seem like playing time; then again, his time on the court didn't warrant more minutes. But he was still playing.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 13, 2020 12:44:54 GMT -5
He has one guy on the roster who is a capable defender, and that player is a freshman. There’s a difference between “teaching defense” and being a miracle worker. We’ll see if he can “teach defense” when he has some more D1 players on the roster. Please. Yeah, the talent is pretty bad on this roster. No one is denying that. But, we rank third from the bottom in all of Division 1 in defensive efficiency. A good teacher of defense wouldn't have a team ranked this poorly regardless of who is being trotted out there every game. I have always thought that defense, rather than offense, doesn't take as much skill. Despite you continuing to fawn over Nelson, your blinded to the fact that he might not have the defensive coaching chops to get us to where we need to be. He should cut loose one of the assistants after this season and bring in a more seasoned coach (H/T ihoop). Key word bold and underline above. You really know nothing about what Nelson can and can't coach defensively, you have just watched a few games of him coaching a roster composed of freshmen and guys outside of the top 3 (by a wide margin) on a poor defensive team from last year, for a program that had neglected defense (ranked 235+ for 4 of the past 5 seasons), and with no positional balance with the players. If you took a step back from the hot take machine and looked at last year vs. this year, maybe you'd see that Nelson hasn't come in and torpedoed the defense. KP Stat | 19-20 Rank | 18-19 Rank | Delta | AdjD | 349 | 248 | -101 | eFG% | 348 | 313 | -35 | TO% | 339 | 21 | -318 | OR% | 274 | 330 | +56 | FTR | 210 | 29 | -181 | 2P% | 345 | 263 | -82 | 3P% | 336 | 315 | -21 | Blk% | 261 | 36 | -225 | 3PA% | 39 | 313 | +274 | A% | 94 | 297 | +203 |
The four lines that jump out to me the most are in bold and can be summarized as the Jehyve Floyd Effect. We are forced to basically play two stretch 3/4's who were recruited to stand around the perimeter and shoot (Faw & Niego) at the 4 & 5 position, so teams are scoring at will in the paint. The other number that jumps out is the TO% dropping from #21 to #339. In Floyd, Benzan, Grandison, Green and Zignorski, we lost 150 of the 241 steals last year (62%) The leader in steals last year (Butler) is now playing severely out of position at PG and his Steals-per40 have dropped by 30%. Combine the players we lost with Butler playing PG, and that's ~ 68% of our steals from last year out the window from a team that was already poor defensively. Just like there is no proof that Nelson is a defensive genius, there is no proof that he doesn't know how to teach defense. That can be judged when he has some guys who are able to defend D1 players at their position.
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Post by rgs318 on Feb 13, 2020 12:52:27 GMT -5
bbc...thanks for the interesting analysis. I would also point our that our short bench by itself limits steals because players are less likely to risk fouling by trying for a steal in some situations.
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Post by bison137 on Feb 13, 2020 12:53:10 GMT -5
IIRC, the type of defense that Nelson's teams played at Florida, looked like they used "perpetual motion" (and had a number of fouls as a result in every game). HC does not have enough bodies to do anything like that. I’m not sure if his college stats would be very relevant to what style Nelson wants to play now. But FWIW, the Florida teams he was on during his junior and senior years did not foul very much at all. It probably helped that they had a couple of good big men.
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Post by dadominate on Feb 13, 2020 13:00:14 GMT -5
this is the story of the season. it's not a knock on butler and lesann, who made the sacrifice for nelson and gave it their best despite playing deep out of position, but many of the pl games this year in which we were competitive and then lost could have been competitive wins if we actually had a point guard. nelson used his one get out of jail free card with the benching of lowder that was completely unrelated to his on the court play or the needs of the team. nelson won't get another pass like this if he can't get along with another very talented player upon whom the WHOLE TEAM depends. he will need to learn it's not always "my way or the highway" in 2020. some compromise and humility are necessary when rebuilding a program. one need look no further than the example recently discussed about what rw did with stowers. the one part of the book that was not brought much to light that i alluded to is that rw made it pretty clear to stowers that he was not going to feature in the program's future which played a major role in his leaving the team, but rw had the humility to make the call to stowers and ask for his help after stowers had understandably left the team. it was a tough season, and stowers ultimately left again after they weathered the storm of injuries, but i always admired that act of humility in rw and enjoyed that uab win (listening on the real audio player internet radio back then!) about as much as any. in the back of my mind, i was hoping nelson would do something similar and that he and lowder rectify things, at least for the sake of the season that was essentially sacrificed (barring a truly miraculous run), but it wasn't meant to be. hopefully this was a learning experience for all involved, but the constant bs about nelson having no d1 players is ridiculous. every player on this team is dramatically affected by not having a point guard. of course, as we begin to improve next year ***WHEN WE ACTUALLY HAVE A POINT GUARD***, we will hear how the savior nelson salvaged a trash heap of players from the evil, wretched carmody. the only trash is that line of thinking. Your obsession with Lowder and seeming insistence that he did absolutely nothing wrong to make Nelson first suspend him for a half, and then suspend him for longer is getting silly. This was a program that had no discipline whatsoever for the previous 4+ years before Nelson arrived. Continuing to sacrifice a culture change for the sake of appeasing Lowder is not the way to run a program. Lowder, Wade, and Pridgen were all benched for the first half of the FAU game. They all got another chance after that game. Wade and Pridgen got the message, Lowder apparently did not. Despite how much you enjoyed watching him at Maryland, Lowder was not the savior for this program. And if he was as great as you claim, why hasn’t he found another home yet? not a single poster here is obsessed with lowder. the only obsessing on this board is your tired obsession with carmody. and butler. in fact, i am one of the few who hasn't tuned you out altogether and even bothers responding to your posts anymore because you beat the same tired drum about carmody, austin butler, absolve nelson of all responsibility with the atrocious defensive play and the lack of a point guard, and how every coach and player is always either the infallible hero or the evil villain in your black and white assessment of every player or coach. the bottom line is that a very dangerous game was played with lowder and it cost us tremendously this year. i hope the bleeding ends with this season, because there is now equally tremendous pressure on rj johnson to be an immediate impact player as a freshman point guard from day 1. we all hope he does just that, but it's never a given for a freshman and we still have no backup. evil austin butler will have to run the point at least a good portion of the time. while he's serviceable, it takes him away from the strengths of his game. classof83 pretty well sums up the multiyear risks that this decision could potentially have. it is my belief that a more experienced coach could have managed some of the spunk (that's an assumption, because he did nothing else wrong on the court or in the classroom), of a talented FRESHMAN point guard, who was the only point guard on the roster, carries a 4.0 gpa, did not have high school transferitis, honored his commitment to hc, etc. without benching him and taking subtle shots at him regarding effort, etc. in media interviews. that was petty and reeked of inexperience. rj johnson could be the player of the year that we all hope him to be, but that doesn't change the fact that this doesn't appear to have been handled very well. nelson is in his first year, some mistakes are expected, and i am hoping that he learns the personnel management side of the game that is as important as the x's and o's these days. the lack of defensive improvement in the team is even more concerning than the lowder mismanagement, although related to a degree as some players are defending out of position, and others have touched upon those concerns in this thread.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 13, 2020 13:04:05 GMT -5
You can carve it up however you want, BBC, but a good defensive coach would be able to figure out how not to have us as a bottom five defensive team nationally. That's just the truth.
Also, your little chart is wrong.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 13, 2020 13:30:58 GMT -5
Your obsession with Lowder and seeming insistence that he did absolutely nothing wrong to make Nelson first suspend him for a half, and then suspend him for longer is getting silly. This was a program that had no discipline whatsoever for the previous 4+ years before Nelson arrived. Continuing to sacrifice a culture change for the sake of appeasing Lowder is not the way to run a program. Lowder, Wade, and Pridgen were all benched for the first half of the FAU game. They all got another chance after that game. Wade and Pridgen got the message, Lowder apparently did not. Despite how much you enjoyed watching him at Maryland, Lowder was not the savior for this program. And if he was as great as you claim, why hasn’t he found another home yet? the bottom line is that a very dangerous game was played with lowder and it cost us tremendously this year. What are you talking about? It's a "game" for Nelson to establish rules and expectations within his program, and hold players accountable for meeting those standards? Brace yourself for an incoming crazy take, but that just sounds like being a Division 1 Head Basketball Coach to me. Without rules or expectations you're leaving yourself open to being like Notre Dame where Doug Gottlieb was stealing credit cards, or Boston College where players were betting. We don't want that! All indications are that Nelson treated Lowder the same way that he treated everyone else in the program, and he was given several chances to get in line. Unless you have actual proof, it's ridiculous to continue to try and pin all of the blame for Lowder not working out on Nelson. We were 1-11 with Lowder (.083) and 2-12 without him (.143). Some "tremendous" cost there...
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Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 13, 2020 13:34:07 GMT -5
You can carve it up however you want, BBC, but a good defensive coach would be able to figure out how not to have us as a bottom five defensive team nationally. That's just the truth. Also, your little chart is wrong. Oh is it now? Based on what?
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Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 13, 2020 13:43:36 GMT -5
BBC-- Are your numbers transposed, i.e. listed under the wrong year in some cases? Had the column headers backwards -- should be fixed now.
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