Saturday’s Belmont Stakes

A one-off for this year only 1 1/8 miles is the right thing to do for the training regimen and health of the horses given the upheaval in the thoroughbred sked this spring.

Just for the record here are the distances for the traditional triple crown

Kentucky Derby
1&1/4 miles—very few if any of the entrants will have run this far before as the key preps are 1&1/16th then 1&1/8th (e.g. Wood, Blue Grass, “derbies” in AR, Fl, Santa Anita)
First Saturday in May

Preakness
1&3/16ths (so 110 yards shorter than KY Derby)
2 weeks after KY Derby

Belmont
1&1/2 miles
3 weeks after Preakness
Often features some “fresh shooters” who lost in KY Derby then skipped the Preakness to be more rested than the half dozen runners who ran Derby and Preakness

Yes, Belmont is a huge track at 1& 1/2 miles circumference, which can affect how races are run. For example, Fonner Park in Nebraska has such a short track that a simple 6 furlong sprint is run around two turns, so going wide can be a real disadvantage. In contrast, many larger tracks have a "chute" so that 1 mile races are run around only one turn. Some horses (& riders) are not that good going around turns so they would prefer bigger tracks.

The overwhelming majority of horses are bred for precocity--to win early at age 2 when there are lucrative races--and that usually means a sprint orientation. There are some stamina sires out there and therein lies the real opportunity for handicappers--to catch foals out of Kitten's Joy, Lemon Drop Kid, Tiznow, Giant's Causeway, Hard Spun etc as they attempt 9F or longer for the first time. When the PPs for the Belmont Stakes become available we can take a look at the pedigrees of the entrants and perhaps eliminate a few runners

Win: Tiz The Law

Place: Pneumatic

Show: Dr. Post

Big Red's performance at the Belmont in '73 was the most impressive feat in the history of sports.

Has a non North American horse run faster ?

Wow. Don’t think I’d ever watched that whole race. Amazing performance.

The Belmont Stakes

How strange it will be to see today's Belmont Stakes occurring before the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, at just 1 & 1/8th miles instead of the mile-and-a-half "test of champions", and run around just one turn. Still, it's great to have NYRA running again and I think we'll have a great race.

#8 Tiz The Law looks like a very deserving favorite and he may well go off at even money (morning line is 6-5). He will be tough to beat and will likely be the focus of most of my horizontal investment. The March 3YO is 4 for 5 with all the wins by at least 3 lengths and 2 of the 4 in graded stakes races. He has beaten some very good competitors, Ete Indian in both the Holy Bull and the Florida Derby in which he also defeated Gouvernor Morris and Independence Hall. He Beyered 100 then 96 in those two races but he won by so much that he id not have to go all out at the finish.His lone loss came on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs. The distance is no issue and it's really too bad he won't get to show his talent at the marathon distance. Sire Constitution is young but early indications are that his foals have stamina and the dam was a solid turf router.

I also like #1 Tap It To Win and had a nice score on him his last outing-- a Tapit foal stretching out to 1 &1/16th from a 6 furlong sprint. He led the whole way and won by 5 lengths in an allowance race on this track. As a son of Tapit he'll like the 1 &1/8th miles. His dam was a solid dirt router. Rider John Velazquez should take him right to the lead and he is a threat to "steal" the race if he can get away with a soft pace (over 47 seconds for the half)

#2 Sole Volante won the Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay but beat a weak field. He then lost the Tampa Bay Derby as the favorite. He has the breeding to relish the distance and as he comes from way in the back of the pack (15 lengths back after 1/2 mile in the SF Davis) the added ground may help him. He wants a fast pace in front of him that will wear out the front runners. I don't think he'll get that fast pace

#10 Pneumatic is lightly raced and well-bred as an Uncle Mo foal. His dam was a sprinter and he has no dam-side siblings for us to study. He's really a bit of a wild card and will offer some value.

#3 Max Player won the Grade-3 Withers at this distance against so-so competition and has not raced since February. Surprisingly, he is David Aragona's (TimeForm US) selection.  #4 Modernist is another Uncle Mo foal . He won his division of the Risen Star at this distance and then finished 3rd in the Louisiana Derby.

#7 Jungle Runner does not belong in this race . He has lost his last 4 races by at least 14 lengths and his Beyer top of 66 would not put him in the money in a good maiden race. #6 Fore Left looks like a miler/sprinter to me and #5 Farmington Road looks to be a decent allowance horse but lost his two graded stakes races by 4 then 7 lengths.

#9 Dr Post is another wild card as he is lightly raced. Morning line is 5-1 but I think you'll get more favorable odds than that. The fabulous Irad Ortiz rides and he'd be a threat on a Shetland pony. I hope to be alive to him in the P4, P5, P3

I see Tap It To Win going right to the lead, perhaps Pneumatic will challenge, with Tiz The Law sitting in third or fourth within 2 lengths of the leader all the way until the stretch. I think Tiz The Law will prevail in the stretch unless Tap It To Win gets away with too soft a pace. Sole Volante will come flying at the end but I'll bet he won't be able to pass Tiz. Pneumatic and maybe Dr Post will be there in deep stretch as well.

Good luck to everyone