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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 16, 2022 15:07:31 GMT -5
FAMU getting an at-large bid would throw a real wrench into things: www.wtxl.com/sports/college-sports/famu/florida-a-m-puts-in-bid-to-host-potential-first-round-fcs-playoff-gameFrom the article: "The Rattlers are ranked 24th in the nation in the latest coaches poll, and head coach Willie Simmons confirming today that they have been contacted by the NCAA as a team that has a strong chance of making the playoffs." Nothing about FAMU's resume would make them a better selection than many other teams that will be on the bubble. If the committee were to give them an at-large bid for the second straight year, they can throw all of their talk about "criteria" out the window. Seems like a pretty deep bubble this year. I have a hard time seeing FAMU getting in especially with the extent they got shellacked by Jackson State. Similar resume to Fordham => FBS loss, Top 10 FCS loss, 9-0 against a weak FCS schedule (assuming both teams win Saturday). Difference being Fordham played their FBS opponent and their Top 10 FCS opponent within a point and FAMU lost both of those games handily. And while Monmouth and Albany don't really end up counting as "quality wins" when it comes to playoff bubble standards, they're likely better wins than anyone FAMU beat.
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Post by cruskater31 on Nov 16, 2022 15:32:07 GMT -5
FAMU getting an at-large bid would throw a real wrench into things: www.wtxl.com/sports/college-sports/famu/florida-a-m-puts-in-bid-to-host-potential-first-round-fcs-playoff-gameFrom the article: "The Rattlers are ranked 24th in the nation in the latest coaches poll, and head coach Willie Simmons confirming today that they have been contacted by the NCAA as a team that has a strong chance of making the playoffs." Nothing about FAMU's resume would make them a better selection than many other teams that will be on the bubble. If the committee were to give them an at-large bid for the second straight year, they can throw all of their talk about "criteria" out the window. Seems like a pretty deep bubble this year. I have a hard time seeing FAMU getting in especially with the extent they got shellacked by Jackson State. Similar resume to Fordham => FBS loss, Top 10 FCS loss, 9-0 against a weak FCS schedule (assuming both teams win Saturday). Difference being Fordham played their FBS opponent and their Top 10 FCS opponent within a point and FAMU lost both of those games handily. And while Monmouth and Albany don't really end up counting as "quality wins" when it comes to playoff bubble standards, they're likely better wins than anyone FAMU beat. and...on top of it all, one of FAMU's win is a D2 non-counter. I think Fordham would get the nod in a head to head comparison.
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Post by Crucis#1 on Nov 16, 2022 17:38:52 GMT -5
I received this message earlier today.
Sunday, November 20th HC Athletics will be hosting a NCAA Selection Show watch party in the Prior Performing Arts Center at 12:00pm!
Join the team as we find out who the Crusaders will take on in the NCAA Tournament! This watch party is open to everyone and we hope to see you all there!
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Post by hchoops on Nov 16, 2022 17:45:49 GMT -5
A good use of the Prior
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Post by Crucis#1 on Nov 16, 2022 17:58:52 GMT -5
Prior will be nice setting to showcase the team and the college with the announcement on ESPN.
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Post by efg72 on Nov 17, 2022 8:10:46 GMT -5
SPORTS | BISON MEDIA ZONE | News reporting With Bison AD Larsen in Indy, playoff scenarios on the line with NDSU and UND North Dakota State athletic director on the FCS selection committee for a second year
011422.S.FF.NDSUfootballWatson
November 15, 2022 07:00 AM SHARE FACEBOOK TWITTER EMAIL The Trust Project We are part of The Trust Project. FARGO — Gate City Bank Field at the Fargodome is expected to be packed to the rafters on Saturday afternoon. The University of North Dakota and North Dakota State kick off at 2:30 p.m. with plenty on the line for both teams.
Decibel levels could be at peak volume. Meanwhile, Matt Larsen will be in a quiet room in Indianapolis.
The NDSU athletic director is a member of the Division I FCS playoff selection committee that will be spending the day monitoring the teams in contention for one of 24 spots in the field.
The committee has been doing conference calls three times a week starting in mid-October. Larsen will fly to Indianapolis on Friday with the first meeting at NCAA headquarters later Friday afternoon. Saturday will be spent watching and evaluating.
“There’s still a lot of implications on some games this weekend,” Larsen said. “We’ll start to take a look at who we think should be in the bracket and we need Saturday to play out a little bit.” Larsen represents the central region consisting of the Missouri Valley Football Conference, Pioneer League and Ohio Valley Conference.
“There’s a lot of time and energy that goes into looking at a lot of information and scores, watching a lot of games over the course of the last three months,” he said.
It’s Larsen’s second year on the committee, which consists of 11 athletic directors. For instance, the Big Sky Conference is represented by University of Montana athletic director Kent Haslam and the Colonial Athletic Association is represented by Stony Brook A.D. Shawn Heilbron.
A committee member must leave the room whenever his or her school is being discussed.
“You see how many games you watch, how much debate there is, how much information you have,” Larsen said.
Four schools have already clinched an automatic berth to the field: South Dakota State in the Missouri Valley, Samford in the Southern Conference, Holy Cross in the Patriot and Saint Francis in the Northeastern Conference.
The following teams are considered to have generally clinched at least an at-large spot based on season record and resume: NDSU (8-2), Sacramento State (10-0), Montana State (9-1), Weber State (8-2), Incarnate Word (9-1), William & Mary (9-1), Richmond (8-2), Elon (8-3) and Southeast Missouri State (8-2).
A host of teams with seven Division I wins could cement themselves with a win on Saturday.
If NDSU beats UND, the Fighting Hawks would want a Missouri State win over 6-4 Youngstown State since UND beat Youngstown during the season and they would finish with the same record. It’s likely the committee would take at least three Missouri Valley teams.
The top eight teams are seeded and receive a first-round bye.
“We spend a lot of time on the top eight for obvious reasons,” Larsen said. “And then the last 10, the last five that get in and the last five that are left out. Those are really important decisions too because one team gets to play and the other team is left at home. After the top eight it comes down to regionalization. So those top eight and those last couple are really, really important.”
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Post by rgs318 on Nov 17, 2022 8:13:36 GMT -5
Thanks for that post, efg72. It does put some things into perspective regarding selection/seeding priorities.
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Post by Crucis#1 on Nov 17, 2022 12:21:12 GMT -5
Selection show
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 17, 2022 14:49:24 GMT -5
While I think that 11-0 (11 D1 wins, one of which is an FBS team and another over a top 25 FCS team) should definitely be good enough for a seed, I'm putting myself in the committee's shoes and trying to both poke holes in our resume and elevate other teams ahead of us in the top 8.
Is there a scenario in which we are playing in the first weekend? If so, here are the teams that will / could be placed ahead of us --
Sacramento St (10-0) Montana St (9-1) Weber St (8-2) Richmond (8-2) W&M (9-1) South Dakota St (10-1) North Dakota St (8-2) Samford (9-1) Furman (8-2) Incarnate Word (9-1)
The way I see it, it's 11 teams for 8 spots. Here's who we know will be seeded regardless of this weekend's results:
Sacramento St (10-0) South Dakota St (10-1) Montana St (9-1)
Now, it's 8 teams for 5 spots.
NDSU plays at home against UND (a good team), but will likely win. They are a seed.
Now, it's 7 teams for 4 spots.
Samford plays at home against Mercer (another good team). This will be a tough one, especially as Mercer is playing for their playoff lives, but if Samford wins, they could be a top four seed. Even with a loss, at 9-2, they might be a seed. Let's put them in.
Now, it's 6 teams for 3 spots.
Richmond and W&M play each other this weekend. If Richmond wins, both are 9-2 and there's an outside chance both could be seeded. HC fans definitely want W&M to win. Regardless, one of these teams is going to be a seed, so for the purposes of this exercise we will slide one in.
Now, it's 5 teams for 2 spots.
Furman (8-2) Incarnate Word (9-1) Weber St (8-2) Holy Cross (10-0) Richmond or W&M
Assuming Furman beats Wofford, they're 9-2 with losses to Clemson and top five Samford. Assuming Weber beats Northern Arizona, they're 9-2 with losses to likely seeds Sac St and Montana St, but a blowout win over Utah St. Assuming Incarnate Word beats Northwestern St, they're 10-1 with FBS win over Nevada, but a conference loss to fringe playoff team SE Louisiana.
Basically, I'm not sure it's as cut and dry as we might think that a win against Georgetown and a perfect 11-0 regular season is automatically going to give us a seed.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 17, 2022 14:59:46 GMT -5
Great analysis.
My opinion -- 11-0 they will wind up giving us a seed. In "real life" we're likely not a Top 8 team. Probably in reality were somewhere between the 10th and 15th best team in the country. Just giving my honest thoughts from what I've seen.
And if we don't get a seed, its not necessarily bad because I believe this team might play better without a bye week. Either way, IMO the bar I've set for this team is quarterfinals appearance-- last year +1. That would be my measure of a successful postseason. Anything beyond that is gravy.
And if we are unseeded, we have a chance to tie the Division I record of 16 wins in a season currently held by North Dakota State.
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Post by hc1998 on Nov 17, 2022 15:02:11 GMT -5
Basically, I'm not sure it's as cut and dry as we might think that a win against Georgetown and a perfect 11-0 regular season is automatically going to give us a seed. But we will be 11-0 with an FBS win
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 17, 2022 15:14:12 GMT -5
Basically, I'm not sure it's as cut and dry as we might think that a win against Georgetown and a perfect 11-0 regular season is automatically going to give us a seed. But we will be 11-0 with an FBS win Yes, and I think that should be good enough. But, six of these wins come against teams that do absolutely nothing for us -- Lehigh, Lafayette, Bryant, Bucknell, Georgetown, and Colgate. In fact, the close games against Lafayette and Bryant don't look great. Compare that to a team from the Big Sky, CAA, or SoCon who face a more challenging schedule in-league, and this is where we might get dinged. Again, don't think we will...but it wouldn't shock me if we are the odd team out.
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Post by dharry13 on Nov 17, 2022 15:24:30 GMT -5
It is a great analysis. That said I think it’s 3 teams for 2 spots. I think no chance the loser of Richmond or W&M gets a seed. So 4 for 2. I don’t see UIW. Their league stinks, worse SOS than HC, a win against 5-5 Southern Illinois and 2-8 Nevada (FBS). I just don’t see that. Now it’s 3 for 2. I just don’t see the committee giving a seed to a two loss team (Furman or Weber State) over a 0 loss team.
Just my two cents.
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 17, 2022 15:26:36 GMT -5
But we will be 11-0 with an FBS win Yes, and I think that should be good enough. But, six of these wins come against teams that do absolutely nothing for us -- Lehigh, Lafayette, Bryant, Bucknell, Georgetown, and Colgate. In fact, the close games against Lafayette and Bryant don't look great. Compare that to a team from the Big Sky, CAA, or SoCon who face a more challenging schedule in-league, and this is where we might get dinged. Again, don't think we will...but it wouldn't shock me if we are the odd team out. This team is likely not an undefeated team with a different coach and QB. It is likely a special but mortal team with one or two losses playing in the first round with a different Coach & QB. Those two seem to help HC win more of the close games that can go either way at the end than is typical. I don't think the committee should penalize us because we won all of our close games and grade us similar to a 9-2 or 10-1 team because of close wins against poor teams. But maybe they will.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 17, 2022 15:39:52 GMT -5
I think HC gets a seed over UIW, assuming 11-0 and 10-1 respectively. Their loss to SELA is basically the equivalent of us losing to Fordham (but we won). We both have FBS wins, ours over a better team but there's was a blowout. SOS more or less a wash.
One thing that's scary about Incarnate Word, at least statistically...they're top offense in all of FCS (1A and 1B w Fordham IMO) but their defense has allowed only about 200 points all season.
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Post by hcpride on Nov 17, 2022 15:43:48 GMT -5
But we will be 11-0 with an FBS win Yes, and I think that should be good enough. But, six of these wins come against teams that do absolutely nothing for us -- Lehigh, Lafayette, Bryant, Bucknell, Georgetown, and Colgate. In fact, the close games against Lafayette and Bryant don't look great. Compare that to a team from the Big Sky, CAA, or SoCon who face a more challenging schedule in-league, and this is where we might get dinged. Again, don't think we will...but it wouldn't shock me if we are the odd team out. A version of this is what I tell folks when they claim we must stay in the football PL because it has an auto bid and there’s not much competition for it.
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 17, 2022 15:59:42 GMT -5
Yes, and I think that should be good enough. But, six of these wins come against teams that do absolutely nothing for us -- Lehigh, Lafayette, Bryant, Bucknell, Georgetown, and Colgate. In fact, the close games against Lafayette and Bryant don't look great. Compare that to a team from the Big Sky, CAA, or SoCon who face a more challenging schedule in-league, and this is where we might get dinged. Again, don't think we will...but it wouldn't shock me if we are the odd team out. A version of this is what I tell folks when they claim we must stay in the football PL because it has an auto bid and there’s not much competition for it. As far as getting to the playoffs, changing leagues would be fixing something that isn't broken. If HC flames out of the playoffs before the quarterfinals then moving to the CAA has a little more credence. If HC gets to the round of eight or beyond then the incremental benefit of playing a stronger regular season schedule in the CAA in the seasons that stronger schedule doesn't knock us out of the playoffs, is fairly small. With much commotion required to achieve that small benefit.
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Post by classof83 on Nov 17, 2022 16:00:47 GMT -5
Great analysis. My opinion -- 11-0 they will wind up giving us a seed. In "real life" we're likely not a Top 8 team. Probably in reality were somewhere between the 10th and 15th best team in the country. Just giving my honest thoughts from what I've seen. And if we don't get a seed, its not necessarily bad because I believe this team might play better without a bye week. Either way, IMO the bar I've set for this team is quarterfinals appearance-- last year +1. That would be my measure of a successful postseason. Anything beyond that is gravy. And if we are unseeded, we have a chance to tie the Division I record of 16 wins in a season currently held by North Dakota State. I think you may be right, I think there is also a lot of disrespect for college football in the Northeast in other parts of the country. . If HC doesn't get a seed, it shows how small the margin of error is for HC. I am guessing if we didn't get that 2 point OT conversion against Fordham and lost the game, HC would not even get a bid and would be on the outside looking in even with the FBS win over Buffalo. Some of the so-called FCS pundits seem to think that going undefeated isn't enough for HC - HC needs to also beat every team they play by multiple touchdowns. Fordham is an interesting situation. I don't think they are going to get in and I don't want HC to play them again. Even though Fordham's defense is weak, I would like to see how far they could go in this Tournament. If they get in, they may be better suited to go further than HC - nobody Fordham has played this year has been able to slow down their offense and I would like to see some of the teams from the Big Sky or Missouri Valley try to stop them and see if their offenses can keep pace.
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Post by hc1998 on Nov 17, 2022 17:03:28 GMT -5
But we will be 11-0 with an FBS win Yes, and I think that should be good enough. But, six of these wins come against teams that do absolutely nothing for us -- Lehigh, Lafayette, Bryant, Bucknell, Georgetown, and Colgate. In fact, the close games against Lafayette and Bryant don't look great. Compare that to a team from the Big Sky, CAA, or SoCon who face a more challenging schedule in-league, and this is where we might get dinged. Again, don't think we will...but it wouldn't shock me if we are the odd team out. I was sarcastically trumpeting what many on here say, without looking at our warts...yes Bryant may be the #5 passing offense in the country, but its against inferior competition (same with Fordham although that offense may translate to any league)...so we can't hang our hat on the fact that the #5 team carved us up. Others also say this team finds a way to win, and there is certainly value to that, but the flip side is that we also were very close to losing a number of games. This team is very fun, and had an impressive season, but it is easy to see how a skeptic may not value our product as highly as we do.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 17, 2022 17:08:50 GMT -5
Yes, and I think that should be good enough. But, six of these wins come against teams that do absolutely nothing for us -- Lehigh, Lafayette, Bryant, Bucknell, Georgetown, and Colgate. In fact, the close games against Lafayette and Bryant don't look great. Compare that to a team from the Big Sky, CAA, or SoCon who face a more challenging schedule in-league, and this is where we might get dinged. Again, don't think we will...but it wouldn't shock me if we are the odd team out. I was sarcastically trumpeting what many on here say, without looking at our warts...yes Bryant may be the #5 passing offense in the country, but its against inferior competition (same with Fordham although that offense may translate to any league)...so we can't hang our hat on the fact that the #5 team carved us up. Others also say this team finds a way to win, and there is certainly value to that, but the flip side is that we also were very close to losing a number of games. This team is very fun, and had an impressive season, but it is easy to see how a skeptic may not value our product as highly as we do. Carved us up?
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Post by efg72 on Nov 17, 2022 18:31:38 GMT -5
Great analysis. My opinion -- 11-0 they will wind up giving us a seed. In "real life" we're likely not a Top 8 team. Probably in reality were somewhere between the 10th and 15th best team in the country. Just giving my honest thoughts from what I've seen. And if we don't get a seed, its not necessarily bad because I believe this team might play better without a bye week. Either way, IMO the bar I've set for this team is quarterfinals appearance-- last year +1. That would be my measure of a successful postseason. Anything beyond that is gravy. And if we are unseeded, we have a chance to tie the Division I record of 16 wins in a season currently held by North Dakota State. I think you may be right, I think there is also a lot of disrespect for college football in the Northeast in other parts of the country. . If HC doesn't get a seed, it shows how small the margin of error is for HC. I am guessing if we didn't get that 2 point OT conversion against Fordham and lost the game, HC would not even get a bid and would be on the outside looking in even with the FBS win over Buffalo. Some of the so-called FCS pundits seem to think that going undefeated isn't enough for HC - HC needs to also beat every team they play by multiple touchdowns. Fordham is an interesting situation. I don't think they are going to get in and I don't want HC to play them again. Even though Fordham's defense is weak, I would like to see how far they could go in this Tournament. If they get in, they may be better suited to go further than HC - nobody Fordham has played this year has been able to slow down their offense and I would like to see some of the teams from the Big Sky or Missouri Valley try to stop them and see if their offenses can keep pace. I think they are in, unless we fall on Saturday
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Post by efg72 on Nov 17, 2022 18:33:04 GMT -5
Potentially the could win it all, until someone figures out how to keep then under 38
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 17, 2022 19:02:30 GMT -5
Are you talking about Fordham?
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Post by efg72 on Nov 17, 2022 19:06:36 GMT -5
I am
The best defense is a great offense
We beat them in OT as did Ohio, but it required a home field and OT
They can win it all if they are included
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Post by hchoops on Nov 17, 2022 19:29:48 GMT -5
Fordham’s defense would prevent them from going far, especially if they have to go west in mid December wher even DeMorat would struggle
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