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And...The Analysts feature HC in a prediction article on FCS unbeatens.
Ranking Which Unbeaten FCS Teams Will Stay The Way
FCS
Ranking Which Unbeaten FCS Teams Will Stay The Way
OCT 13, 2022
CRAIG HALEY- As FCS college football reaches the midpoint of the regular season this weekend, eight feels great.

Eight unbeaten teams, that is.

It won’t remain that way for long, though. At least three are guaranteed a loss due to upcoming conference matchups among the Big Sky trio of unbeatens – Montana, Sacramento State and Weber State – and an Ivy League duo – Penn and Princeton.

Holy Cross (Patriot), Jackson State (SWAC) and Stonehill (Northeast) also remain unbeaten.

The eight teams should be focused on one game at a time, but we’ll go big picture and rank the likelihood of them completing an unbeaten regular season, starting with the most likely team:

1. Holy Cross (6-0)
Remaining Schedule: at Lafayette, Fordham, Lehigh, Bryant, at Georgetown

Assessment: The tougher half of the schedule is over, and Fordham is the last big obstacle. Holy Cross gets that game at home and has defeated its last 13 Patriot League opponents by 10 or more points, including the Rams three times, and on average by 27.3 points.

Predicted First Regular-Season Loss: None

holy-cross-crusaders
This year’s Holy Cross squad is seeking to join the 1998-2001 Lehigh squads with a fourth straight Patriot League championship. (Mark Seliger Photography)
2. Jackson State (5-0)
Remaining Schedule: at Bethune-Cookman, Campbell, Southern, at Texas Southern, Alabama A&M, at Alcorn State

Assessment: Even in the offseason, the Tigers appeared to have the best chance to post an unbeaten regular season, and it hasn’t changed much with their home winning streak before massive crowds up to eight and the defense top-ranked in the FCS. The “Soul Bowl” at Alcorn State appears more dangerous than home games against Campbell and Southern.

Predicted First Regular-Season Loss: None

Jackson State Tigers
The Jackson State Tigers have hurdled their last 12 SWAC opponents, including a 66-24 win over Grambling State on Sept. 24. (Charles A. Smith/JSU)
3. Sacramento State (5-0)
Remaining Schedule: at Eastern Washington, Montana, Idaho, at Weber State, at Portland State, UC Davis

Assessment: It’s crowded atop the Big Sky standings. Sac State, which has scored in all 20 quarters and is the only Division I team yet to trail in a game, joins UT Martin as the only FCS teams to rank in the top 20 nationally in both rushing and passing yards per game. While it helps to have Montana at home rather than on the road, the Hornets are an incredible 17-1 in Big Sky games under coach Troy Taylor.

Predicted First Regular-Season Loss: Weber State

4. Princeton (4-0)
Remaining Schedule: Brown, at Harvard, Cornell, Dartmouth, at Yale, Penn

Assessment: Since 2018, the Tigers are 31-3 overall, with losses only against Dartmouth (two) and Yale (one). While those two rivals plus fellow unbeaten Penn loom in November, first things first, Harvard seeks revenge after a five-overtime loss last season. Coach Bob Surace has built potent offenses, but this year’s Tigers are below their last six in scoring average and the last 10 in yardage average.

Predicted First Regular-Season Loss: Harvard

recent-fcs-perfect-seasons
5. Penn (4-0)
Remaining Schedule: Columbia, Yale, at Brown, at Cornell, Harvard, at Princeton

Assessment: It helps to have Dartmouth out of the way as Penn pursues its first Ivy title since 2016, but the fact the Quakers have already surpassed last year’s win total (three, just one Ivy) suggests there are tight games ahead in what appears to be a balanced league race. An improved rush defense combines nicely with a pass rush that had 14 sacks against three Patriot League opponents.

Predicted First Regular-Season Loss: Yale


6. Weber State (5-0)
Remaining Schedule: at Portland State, at Montana State, Montana, Sacramento State, Idaho State, at Northern Arizona

Assessment: A loss to Portland State last season probably takes away the chance of falling into a trap game before the gauntlet that follows with the Montana programs and Sacramento State. The Wildcats haven’t played UM and Sac State since 2019, the third of their four straight conference championship seasons under coach Jay Hill.

Predicted First Regular-Season Loss: Montana State


7. Montana (5-0)
Remaining Schedule: Idaho, at Sacramento State, at Weber State, Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, at Montana State

Assessment: No remaining Big Sky schedule is as daunting as UM’s, which would make a “State”-ment if it sweeps the road challenge of Sac State, Weber State and Montana State. While the Grizzlies are off to the best start since 2009, their five opponents are a combined 6-21. But their fierce defense ranks fourth in scoring average this season as well as overall across the last two seasons.

Predicted First Regular-Season Loss: Sacramento State


8. Stonehill (3-0)
Remaining Schedule: at Sacred Heart, at Saint Francis, Merrimack, Wagner, at LIU, Central Connecticut State

Assessment: Due to beating two Division II opponents in three games, the D-I transitioning Skyhawks have the FCS’ lowest strength of schedule, according to Massey Ratings. Still, they made a splash in their Northeast Conference debut, upsetting Duquesne. Next up are two-time defending champion Sacred Heart and the two teams off to 2-0 starts in-conference (Saint Francis and Merrimack).

Predicted First Regular-Season Loss: Sacred Heart


theanalyst.com/2022/10/ranking-which-unbeaten-fcs-teams-will-stay-the-way/

Rubber hits the road for Stonehill. Let's see how they do the next 3 weeks. Already got Top 25 votes in one poll.

That tells you that some voters in that poll are just not paying attention to FCS football, Stonehill will win likely win no more than two or three of its six remaining games. 

Assuming they cruise to the SWAC East title, they do have to beat the West division champ to get to the Celebration Bowl. They could potentially either face Alcorn State (beat McNeese and played SF Austin tough) or Southern U., both of whom could give the Sanders family a run for their money IMO.

The MEAC Champ will likely be North Carolina Central who beat UNH earlier this year. They're currently pummeling a hapless Morgan State on ESPN2 -- been watching a little bit in between periods of the Rangers-Wild game since ALDS Game 2 in the Bronx is rained out.

Southern and Alcorn play tomorrow. If Alcorn wins they'll be 2 games ahead of Southern in the loss column so even if they lose to JSU to close season, they'd still have the head-to-head with Southern in a tie (assuming both win the rest of their league games). If Southern wins, the two would be tied, and Southern would have the advantage given that Alcorn would then have to beat JSU in the regular season AND hope that Southern loses again in SWAC play. 

Jackson State-NC Central would be a good Celebration Bowl matchup IMO. I would definitely watch. Too bad zero chance we see HC v. Deion in the playoffs.

Only way for a SWAC team to go to the playoffs is to not win it's division of the SWAC but still be good enough to get an at-large bid. This is because the SWAC title game and the Celebration Bowl both conflict with the tournament. And Grambling and Southern play their rivalry game on Thanksgiving so those two are out regardless. Florida A&M got in last year by finishing second to Jackson St in the East but still had a record strong enough to make the playoffs.

Could definitely be a fun experience for our players. I am not sure if we have played a SWAC or MEAC school recently in football. I know we did play Morgan St and Howard a while back and blew them both out, but JSU is at the top of the HBCU ladder right now. I am not sure how energizing it would be for the fan bases. This year, it definitely would be interesting as I know some of us on here doubt JSU's strength of schedule and a head to head win vs. them would put that story to bed (or if they played anyone else in the top 20). I wonder if JSU would like to get out of the SWAC and make a move to FBS.