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Post by bringbackcaro on Dec 21, 2016 10:51:44 GMT -5
Interesting article on Chris Collins preparing to possibly accomplish the seemingly insurmountable task of getting Northwestern to the NCAA Tournament, in just his fourth year on the job (and fourth year as a head coach).
www.si.com/college-basketball/2016/12/20/northwestern-wildcats-dayton-ncaa-tournament-droughtI love these quotes, first from the author and second from Chris Collins, and thought they applied greatly to our situation at Holy Cross, where, like Northwestern, our academic rigors mean that we are going to have to find unique ways to beat teams that are able to recruit at a higher level than us, rather than just relying on basketball skill:
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Post by rgs318 on Dec 21, 2016 10:54:42 GMT -5
OK, that does sound good...now let's see if he can get it done.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Dec 21, 2016 10:57:28 GMT -5
They've looked tough playing against a pretty weak non-conference schedule (273 per Pomeroy). I'm interested to see how they fair in the B10.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Dec 21, 2016 11:09:26 GMT -5
They've looked tough playing against a pretty weak non-conference schedule (273 per Pomeroy). I'm interested to see how they fair in the B10. Do you have any details on how the KenPom SOS is calculated? CBS Sports has them at 94 (quite different than KP), and their schedule doesn't look too bad to me. www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/sos |
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Dec 21, 2016 11:18:52 GMT -5
Setting aside the obvious agenda, this is an interesting topic. Sagarin has Northwestern at #36 in the country with a schedule that is ranked #218
Here's how Pomeroy recorded it
Date NU's Rank at the time, Opponent's Rank Now W or L Score Location
Fri Nov 11 61 344 Mississippi Valley St. W, 94-63 Home
Mon Nov 14 62 260 Eastern Washington W, 86-72 Home
Wed Nov 16 61 17 Butler L, 70-68 66 Away
Mon Nov 21 60 78 Texas W, 77-58 Neutral
Tue Nov 22 51 23 Notre Dame L, 70-66 Neutral
Fri Nov 25 53 282 Bryant W, 86-66 Home
Mon Nov 28 50 50 Wake Forest W, 65-58 Home
Sat Dec 3 45 186 DePaul W, 80-64 Home
Sun Dec 11 43 253 New Orleans W, 83-49 Home
Wed Dec 14 40 333 Chicago St. W, 68-64 Home
Sat Dec 17 47 40 Dayton W, 67-64 Semi-Home
Tue Dec 20 46 159 IUPUI W, 87-65 Home
Very surprised anyhow many home games NU has been able to schedule
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Post by lou on Dec 21, 2016 11:19:50 GMT -5
Holy Cross 89 ?
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Dec 21, 2016 11:25:52 GMT -5
CBS Sports rates SOS solely on the winning percentage of a team's opponent (inclusive of non-D1s), which isn't a great barometer in my mind. Northwestern beat Eastern Washington, who has a record of 8-4, but those wins are against two non-D1 schools, Bryant, Seattle (2x), Denver, San Francisco, and Morehead State. So, with a winning percentage of .666, EWU looks pretty good in the eyes of CBS Sports. Foolish.
Of Northwestern's 12 games, I see four good opponents: ND, Wake, Dayton, and Butler.
The article was a puff piece, BTW.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Dec 21, 2016 12:13:33 GMT -5
CBS Sports rates SOS solely on the winning percentage of a team's opponent (inclusive of non-D1s), which isn't a great barometer in my mind. Northwestern beat Eastern Washington, who has a record of 8-4, but those wins are against two non-D1 schools, Bryant, Seattle (2x), Denver, San Francisco, and Morehead State. So, with a winning percentage of .666, EWU looks pretty good in the eyes of CBS Sports. Foolish. Of Northwestern's 12 games, I see four good opponents: ND, Wake, Dayton, and Butler. The article was a puff piece, BTW. Thanks for explanation on CBS. Still waiting to hear why KenPom is so different. Also, how many "good opponents" do you expect them to play? (Keeping in mind how high-major schedules work these days) |
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Dec 21, 2016 12:25:07 GMT -5
Pomeroy averages the opponents offensive and defensive ratings and then applies the pythagorean calculation (Bill James, sabermetrics guy) to them to rank the overall schedules.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Dec 21, 2016 12:27:32 GMT -5
CBS Sports rates SOS solely on the winning percentage of a team's opponent (inclusive of non-D1s), which isn't a great barometer in my mind. Northwestern beat Eastern Washington, who has a record of 8-4, but those wins are against two non-D1 schools, Bryant, Seattle (2x), Denver, San Francisco, and Morehead State. So, with a winning percentage of .666, EWU looks pretty good in the eyes of CBS Sports. Foolish. Of Northwestern's 12 games, I see four good opponents: ND, Wake, Dayton, and Butler. The article was a puff piece, BTW. Also, how many "good opponents" do you expect them to play? (Keeping in mind how high-major schedules work these days) They have the 11th weakest non-conference schedule in the Big 10. Will come back to hurt them if they find themselves on the bubble. |
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Post by WCHC Sports on Dec 21, 2016 12:35:27 GMT -5
Besides the color purple, what is our interest in Northwestern finally making the big dance?
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Dec 21, 2016 12:44:22 GMT -5
Besides the color purple, what is our interest in Northwestern finally making the big dance? Caro is striving to show that Carmody actually didn't do a great job at Northwestern, and Chris Collins is doing a better job by leading them to the NCAA Tournament. It all circles back to smearing Carmody and Pine. |
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Post by lou on Dec 21, 2016 12:44:39 GMT -5
Besides the color purple, what is our interest in Northwestern finally making the big dance? I believe this has something to do with bringback pointing out that the current NW coach has a better of making the dance than the previous coach there |
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Post by zambonihomie13 on Dec 21, 2016 12:49:40 GMT -5
www.insidenu.com/2016/3/10/11195360/northwestern-michigan-big-ten-tournament-chris-collins-third-season-bill-carmody"Collins was brought in to jumpstart a Northwestern program that had begun to stall and stabilize and set it back in motion. To continue, as he says, what former head coach Bill Carmody had built. Now, three seasons removed from a 13-year era that saw some of the most successful seasons in the program's history, Collins sits, struggling with the same challenges that Carmody battled." You know, just to be Devil's Advocate since we're grasping at straws here for no reason. FWIW I think Collins is a good coach and will get NU to the dance at some point. But that has no bearing on Carmody or HC.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Dec 21, 2016 12:58:15 GMT -5
Also, how many "good opponents" do you expect them to play? (Keeping in mind how high-major schedules work these days) They have the 11th weakest non-conference schedule in the Big 10. Will come back to hurt them if they find themselves on the bubble. According to KenPom? Wouldn't it be best to understand the metric before citing it? They are 8 out of 14 on CBS Sports, and just slightly above the average SOS score in the league. While the KenPom SOS certainly may provide some value, wouldn't it be rather difficult for coaches to craft schedules where they are trying to take into account the offensive and defensive "efficiency" of their possible opponents? ---- Also, going back to your previous point about them only playing 4 "good opponents" -- Butler (17), Notre Dame (23), Wake Forest (50), and Dayton (40) -- that means you are leaving out Texas, which is ranked at 78. Looking at the last 10 years under the previous coach at Northwestern, Bill Carmody, here's how the OOC schedules shaped up: Top 75 (convenient cut-off): 9-21 (.321), with an average of 2.8 opponents per year (1 year with 4, 2 years with 5) Top 50 (Wake this year): 4-11 (.267), with an average of 1.4 opponents per year (only 1 year with 3, the remainder with 1 or 2) Just to provide historical perspective, which may be more valuable than a Bill James algorithm, but I don't know. |
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Post by zambonihomie13 on Dec 21, 2016 13:00:24 GMT -5
You're right. We should fire Bill Carmody and Nate Pine.
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Post by ncaam on Dec 21, 2016 13:03:49 GMT -5
Besides the color purple, what is our interest in Northwestern finally making the big dance? Caro is striving to show that Carmody actually didn't do a great job at Northwestern, and Chris Collins is doing a better job by leading them to the NCAA Tournament. It all circles back to smearing Carmody and Pine. As are you trying to make northwestern and collins look weak. You are channeling your inner sov; BBC is channeling his inner hc70. |
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Post by hchoops on Dec 21, 2016 13:08:53 GMT -5
Caro,
Have you seen Nothwestern play often ?
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Post by bringbackcaro on Dec 21, 2016 13:17:34 GMT -5
Caro, Have you seen Nothwestern play often ? Caught the last 20ish seconds of the Notre Dame game, but that's it. I'm not saying they're good, bad, or otherwise. Rather, just posting an interesting and relevant (in my opinion) article that I came across on the Internet, written by someone who has watched them play. |
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Post by lou on Dec 21, 2016 13:44:16 GMT -5
Caro, Have you seen Nothwestern play often ? Caught the last 20ish seconds of the Notre Dame game, but that's it. I'm not saying they're good, bad, or otherwise. Rather, just posting an interesting and relevant (in my opinion) article that I came across on the Internet, written by someone who has watched them play. Why post it under Holy Cross Basketball? |
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Post by WCHC Sports on Dec 21, 2016 13:45:16 GMT -5
Carmody could have handed off the keys to a super bowl team ala Tony Dungy to Jon Gruden, or he could have left them decimated ala Cleveland Browns at any point after expansion... and it still wouldn't matter. We gotta dance with the date we brung, and that's CBC for HC right now.
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Post by rgs318 on Dec 21, 2016 16:56:56 GMT -5
...and, hopefully, for years to come.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Dec 22, 2016 12:35:04 GMT -5
Pomeroy averages the opponents offensive and defensive ratings and then applies the pythagorean calculation (Bill James, sabermetrics guy) to them to rank the overall schedules. With South Carolina losing to Clemson last night, and Syracuse losing to a horrible St. John's team by 33 (to drop to 7-5...), both will now be outside the Top 25, with 'Cuse well outside it. It makes absolutely no sense to me how our SOS could be 96 on KenPom, while Northwestern's is 265. |
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Post by beaven302 on Dec 23, 2016 14:38:34 GMT -5
Any discussion of Collins and Carmody at Northwestern should make note of how truly awful the team was prior to Carmody's arrival. For example, in the last season before Carmody its record was 5-25.
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Post by Crucis#1 on Dec 23, 2016 15:03:12 GMT -5
Carmody was also dealing with facilities that were not up to par. Difficult to recruit in the BIG 10 against the Michigans and others.
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