HC vs. Lafayette

Ehh, let's just focus on our own game and future comes Saturday. 

🤷‍♂️ No control over polls. Well, a little. Gotta win them all and we haven’t. 

I think a lot of people are forgetting that the field is 24 teams now. You can be ranked in the 20-25 range and be on the bubble for an at large.

Lafayette at 9-2 (9-1 FCS) would be competing against 7-4 teams from other FCS conferences. Yes, some of those Sky/Valley 7-4 teams would get in over them but not all. Unless the bubble breaks badly for them, I'd give a 9-2 Leopard team about 85% confidence of getting in.

8-3 Holy Cross gets in only if we beat Army. Committee loves FBS scalps. Don't think the Buffalo win will be enough to help Fordham though. Rams only path is to win the league.

As of now, it’s probably Monmouth.

If Monmouth gets hot down the stretch (they have games against W&M, Albany, and Elon) it will help Lafayette tremendously.

I’ll go on record now. I think if Lafayette loses to HC but wins out afterwards, they get in. You heard it here first.

Mid season review heading into the game of the year (not just cause it’s this week But we all know the stakes):

As strange as this sounds, I don’t think a ton has changed with this team compared to what some of us expected heading into Merrimack Week 1. 

Highlights:
The Offense came into the season with the potential to be a Top 5 O nationally. They have largely performed as advertised. I would even go out on a limb and say when they are firing on all cylinders, they are top 3 behind only SDSU and Montana State. They are balanced, can beat you in a plethora of ways and have several individual players w/ Sunday talent. If they don’t beat themselves with turnovers and/or penalties, they should be able to drop AT LEAST 28 points on pretty much every FCS team in the country. 

The Defense was the big question mark coming into the season and while we know a lot more, there are still questions to be answered. Coming into the season, I really didn’t want to be the Fordham 2022 redux. While I think our defense is better than last season’s Fordham’s D, my hope was that we would round into a Top ~40 FCS defense nationally. Given the performance on tape thus far, plus the losses of Jarmo and now Haskins, this D is currently a median squad. (~128 FCS teams so around #~64.)  A top 5 Offense with a D boarding on top 40 would be a near lock to win another PL title and very tough out in the postseason. The D has to show meaningful improvement starting this week. Even if our O doesn’t hurt themselves, good teams will drain the clock with long sustained drives to minimize our Offensive possessions. We have to find a way to get off the field on 3rd/4th down and get some takeaways or else next 5 weeks will be very volatile. 

Everyone knows #27 is one of the top 5 FCS Defensive players in the country but he needs help. Spence and Curt Harris Lopez are the only two that have flashed enough so far to demonstrate “playmaker“ ability v solid to high end FCS talent. The D-line was my largest concern coming into the year and continues to be. With the exception of Springer, the frosh DT’s and less experienced Danolds are getting bullied up front. Stevenson and George will eventually be very good players but it’s just too early and a huge ask. Ross has the most near term potential on the D-line IMO. He’s basically a redshirt freshman having missed all of last year with an injury. With an entire season of reps under his belt and hopefully getting that bulky knee brace off in 2024, he will have all conference potential as soon as next season. Like Springer, BV can hold up physically but just doesn’t have the twitch to be a disruptor. DEs Reynolds and especially Robinson continue to improve every week. I would say of all the frosh seeing run, I’ve noticed the most consistent improvement from Robinson week in and week out. He’s going to be a monster as an upperclassman. 

In the D-backfield, Stu and Comestro are good for freshman but they are still that…freshman. Malik Scott and Eli Thompson will have to grow up fast to replace Haskins now permanently. 

ST’s have been underwhelming obviously compared to last season. Pat H is having a very sub par year and you can tell we don’t have a ton of trust in Luis yet. 

So where does that leave us, I believe odds makers will have HC a ~7.5-9.5 pt favorite at home v Laffy this weekend. You can judge for yourself how you like those odds. Vegas was way too bearish on us v Yale (HC -2.5) and bullish v Harvard (-15.5). As the season progresses, FCS lines are getting more accurate. 

Those of us that have watched the Pards on film know it’s gonna take our best effort. Should be a great game and hopefully weather permitting a great atmosphere. LET’S WIN!

Are Jarmo and Haskins both out for the season ? Any other players in that category ?

The math isn’t great NY. Herder releasing his Bracketology 1.0 this week but I’ll take a stab. I think 22-23 spots are virtual locks right now.

MVC (5) - SDSU, UND, USD, SIU - bubble for 5th spot b/t NDSU, YSU and UNI.
Big Sky (4/5) - MT State, Idaho, Montana, Sac State - UC Davis is in if it wins out and goes 8-3 which comes down to final week at home v Sac State.
CAA (4) - UD, W&M, Nova, Albany top 4 as of today - URI, Richmond and UNH could take the 4th spot but have to win out while the first 4 teams could all have at least one loss and still make it. A 7-4 Albany team (7-2 v FCS is in ahead of a 9-2 Laffy or 8-3 HC team IMO) 
So Con (3/4) - Furman, WCU, Chattanooga - Mercer has to win out to be the 4th which incudes a road contest at WCU.
UAC (2/3) - UCA, Austen Peay - EKU is the only other team that could get in at 7-4 (7-2 vs FCS) Brutal schedule but are in if they go 4-1 down the stretch with big games v G-Webb, APSU, and at UCA. 
Southland (1/2) - Need UIW to beat Lamar and avoid Lamar stealing auto bid while UIW get’s at large at 9-2 (9-1 vs FCS) 
Big South/OVC (1/2) Similar to Southland where you need UTM to get the auto bid cause they will get an at large if they lose conf championship to SEMO. 
NEC Champ (1)
Pioneer Champ (1)
PL Champ (1)

So that’s bare minimum 22-23 spots right there if every bubble team I listed missed out which won’t happen. Laffy at 9-2 is more like 50/50 for the 24th spot. As for HC, if we don’t beat Laffy and Fordham, I’d say less than 10% odds we are beating Army so the 8-3 at large bid isn’t really worth the time discussing. All the teams listed above are just trying to go 1-0 this week. I’ll go record that if we get the PL auto bid I think we will play Albany first round. At Fitton will depend upon the bid by each school which is made before the bracket is announced. 

Great breakdown midwest. I do think HC-Albany very likely to happen in 1st round. Villanova could also happen again. HC-URI also possible but Rams need to win out at this point to get in.

I think Delaware is also barely within the 400-mile driving range the NCAA uses to differentiate bus trips and flights. But UD looking like they might snag a seed and get a bye.

I'm not quite as pessimistic as midwest. If we beat Laffy, Fordham, and Army we're in and may get a 8 seed at 9-2 (good news/bad news). If we beat Laffy and Fordham and lose to Army, we're still in at 8-3 because our only FCS loss is to a Harvard which could well win out. If we lose to Laffy or Fordham and beat Army, we're still in at 8-3 even with two FCS losses because we'll have a FBS win and a close Power-5 loss. If we lose to Laffy or Fordham, and Army, at 7-4 there's an chance we still get in because we'll only have two FCS losses and because of reputation, which does matter.

9-2 Laffy gets in over 7-4 UNH, URI and Richmond. My issue was specifically with a 7-4 Albany resume. They would have gone 7-2 v FCS (with two narrow FBS losses, including to a very good Marshall team). FCS wins thrashing Fordham, Villanova and going 2-1 down the final stretch against URI, W&M and Monmouth. That’s a very good resume. And their one FCS loss at UNH so far was a helluva game. I believe they are only one of 3 teams that have a legit shot of an at large bid at 7-4. The other being EKU and Gardner Webb that like Albany would have gone 7-2 vs FCS with good wins and tough losses. Coincidentally, they play this week in a non conference match-up so one will knock out the other.

I'm with you on Albany. A 7-4 Albany IMO is a much different animal than a 7-4, UNH, URI or Richmond. Richmond isn't even sniffing the bubble at 7-4 IMO. They need to win out and go 8-3.