hc69
Crusader Century Club
Posts: 230
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Post by hc69 on Oct 16, 2023 17:20:13 GMT -5
I'm not quite as pessimistic as midwest. If we beat Laffy, Fordham, and Army we're in and may get a 8 seed at 9-2 (good news/bad news). If we beat Laffy and Fordham and lose to Army, we're still in at 8-3 because our only FCS loss is to a Harvard which could well win out. If we lose to Laffy or Fordham and beat Army, we're still in at 8-3 even with two FCS losses because we'll have a FBS win and a close Power-5 loss. If we lose to Laffy or Fordham, and Army, at 7-4 there's an chance we still get in because we'll only have two FCS losses and because of reputation, which does matter. We'd be the Patriot League auto-qualifier under that scenario. Yep.
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Post by cruskater31 on Oct 16, 2023 17:35:16 GMT -5
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Post by midwestsader05 on Oct 16, 2023 17:41:15 GMT -5
Idaho another, Midwest. Pretty much any team who has played two FBS would have a more realistic shot at getting in at 7-4. True SOV, I just had them at worst 8-3. I watched the Montana at Idaho game late last Saturday on ESPN. I thought the Vandals were better team but like us against Harvard beat themselves. They get Montana state at home on 10/28 which will be tough but should handle the rest of their schedule. Youngstown State another that could get in at 7-4 (going 7-3 v FCS) but would have to be at that 5 spot in the MVC. I just don’t see the committee giving the MVC a 6th team even if that team would be a tough out (like YSU)
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Post by midwestsader05 on Oct 16, 2023 17:55:10 GMT -5
If I’m reading this accurately, the model suggests a 9-2 PL runner up Lafayette has a better chance of an at large bid than 8-3 runner up HC. I’m very curious to see the 3% of simulations where G’Town gets an at large as a 7-4 PL runner up with OOC losses to Stonehill, boat raced by Columbia and heartbreaker to Penn. I’d put those odds at 0% but I bet those scenarios are crazy funny.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Oct 16, 2023 18:00:56 GMT -5
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Post by efg72 on Oct 16, 2023 18:58:50 GMT -5
Georgetown is having a great season for them, but unless the skies and waters part they have no shot
Top 3 teams in the PL my evaluation, with games remaining, are Holy Cross, Lafayette and Colgate
Brescia is a very good QB, but the replacement is a better fit for this team
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Oct 16, 2023 19:15:09 GMT -5
If I’m reading this accurately, the model suggests a 9-2 PL runner up Lafayette has a better chance of an at large bid than 8-3 runner up HC. I’m very curious to see the 3% of simulations where G’Town gets an at large as a 7-4 PL runner up with OOC losses to Stonehill, boat raced by Columbia and heartbreaker to Penn. I’d put those odds at 0% but I bet those scenarios are crazy funny.Also, I saw Lehigh at 0% chance of winning the PL auto-bid, even though they technically could still get to 4-2 with head-to-head wins over both HC and Lafayette. Seems like they wouldn't be officially eliminated yet but according to whatever model this is based off of, they're mathematically done.
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Post by sader1970 on Oct 16, 2023 19:19:15 GMT -5
Yeah, I'm just a history major but this chart looks like pseudoscience.
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Post by efg72 on Oct 16, 2023 19:22:27 GMT -5
Whoever put this together is big time dilussional
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Post by longsuffering on Oct 16, 2023 19:32:01 GMT -5
The math isn’t great NY. Herder releasing his Bracketology 1.0 this week but I’ll take a stab. I think 22-23 spots are virtual locks right now. MVC (5) - SDSU, UND, USD, SIU - bubble for 5th spot b/t NDSU, YSU and UNI. Big Sky (4/5) - MT State, Idaho, Montana, Sac State - UC Davis is in if it wins out and goes 8-3 which comes down to final week at home v Sac State. CAA (4) - UD, W&M, Nova, Albany top 4 as of today - URI, Richmond and UNH could take the 4th spot but have to win out while the first 4 teams could all have at least one loss and still make it. A 7-4 Albany team (7-2 v FCS is in ahead of a 9-2 Laffy or 8-3 HC team IMO) So Con (3/4) - Furman, WCU, Chattanooga - Mercer has to win out to be the 4th which incudes a road contest at WCU. UAC (2/3) - UCA, Austen Peay - EKU is the only other team that could get in at 7-4 (7-2 vs FCS) Brutal schedule but are in if they go 4-1 down the stretch with big games v G-Webb, APSU, and at UCA. Southland (1/2) - Need UIW to beat Lamar and avoid Lamar stealing auto bid while UIW get’s at large at 9-2 (9-1 vs FCS) Big South/OVC (1/2) Similar to Southland where you need UTM to get the auto bid cause they will get an at large if they lose conf championship to SEMO. NEC Champ (1) Pioneer Champ (1) PL Champ (1) So that’s bare minimum 22-23 spots right there if every bubble team I listed missed out which won’t happen. Laffy at 9-2 is more like 50/50 for the 24th spot. As for HC, if we don’t beat Laffy and Fordham, I’d say less than 10% odds we are beating Army so the 8-3 at large bid isn’t really worth the time discussing. All the teams listed above are just trying to go 1-0 this week. I’ll go record that if we get the PL auto bid I think we will play Albany first round. At Fitton will depend upon the bid by each school which is made before the bracket is announced. I love this stuff and breaking down resumes. I do think there aren't as many locks as you lay out here and there's still so much to be sorted out that it's premature to say 22 or 23 spots are already accounted for. Have to remember that in conferences like the Big Sky, Valley, and CAA, the top teams will cannibalize each other. The CAA, for instance, is much weaker this year than in past years. Don't think it's a foregone conclusion they get four bids. So, is a 9-2 Lafayette more attractive than a 7-4 UNH, Albany, URI, or Richmond? Yes, yes, yes and yes. Laffy has won the games at the end. That and 9-1 FCS should be rewarded.
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Post by hc87 on Oct 16, 2023 21:09:19 GMT -5
Just a random thought, but I think we're bettah than we've mostly shown this year. Maybe purple shaded Ray-Bans on my part but I don't think we've played our best football yet. We've shown flashes at times this year, mostly in 2nd halves of games....but I think we're due to start putting together a full 4 quarters.
Let's go undefeated this week of course....
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Post by crusader12 on Oct 17, 2023 5:47:47 GMT -5
Another weekend of pouring rain. This is a sick joke. Why do we live here?
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Post by Ignutz on Oct 17, 2023 7:18:30 GMT -5
Interesting that there's no mention whatsoever of Lafayette. He must be thinking that their current 5-1 record finishes at no better than 7-4 (beating G'town and Lehigh, but losing to HC, Colgate and Fordham?).
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Post by cruskater31 on Oct 17, 2023 7:19:16 GMT -5
Looks like a steady rain in the morning and showers off and on in the afternoon. We are still a few days out so there is a chance the rain moves predominantly to Friday or Sunday or stays off shore. Problem is it might scare away non-family weekend attendees hopefully enough people will still buy tickets this week.
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Post by Ignutz on Oct 17, 2023 7:20:26 GMT -5
Another weekend of pouring rain. This is a sick joke. Why do we live here? It's only Tuesday. Last weekend was supposed to be our 13th consecutive weekend with rain - until the forecast changed on Thursday. And don't forget our soggy little get-together against UNH back in December. Apparently, we're pretty good mudders! Accuweather is currently showing a 94% chance of rain in Worcester on Saturday, but only 0.3" total precip. Let's all believe that that the 3/10ths of an inch will fall between midnight and 7:00am (or after 5:00pm).. The power of PURPLEtive thinking!
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Post by gks on Oct 17, 2023 7:26:13 GMT -5
Interesting that there's no mention whatsoever of Lafayette. He must be thinking that their current 5-1 record finishes at no better than 7-4 (beating G'town and Lehigh, but losing to HC, Colgate and Fordham?). There's no mention of Lafayette because..... 1. National analysts think the PL is awful 2. Lafayette has yet to beat anyone of significance or even close to being of significance 3. They have no track record of recent success against national competition The Leopards aren't even getting or barely getting Top 25 votes....(correct me if I'm wrong). LC has to run the table to get in.
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Post by lou on Oct 17, 2023 7:31:23 GMT -5
Interesting that there's no mention whatsoever of Lafayette. He must be thinking that their current 5-1 record finishes at no better than 7-4 (beating G'town and Lehigh, but losing to HC, Colgate and Fordham?). There's no mention of Lafayette because..... 1. National analysts think the PL is awful 2. Lafayette has yet to beat anyone of significance or even close to being of significance 3. They have no track record of recent success against national competition The Leopards aren't even getting or barely getting Top 25 votes....(correct me if I'm wrong). LC has to run the table to get in. Stats Perform...Lafayette 32 [votes]
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Post by sader1970 on Oct 17, 2023 8:09:03 GMT -5
Another weekend of pouring rain. This is a sick joke. Why do we live here? Where is “here.” I don’t live in Worcester.😊 I have rain slickers - purple with HC logos. I lived through the ‘66 Dartmouth game and whatever the other one was that people were comparing it to (but not those who were there in ‘66 who thought that one was bad - not even close). I do hope the weatherman is wrong as the rain won’t kill me but I am not an 18 year old freshman anymore. 😂
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Post by rgs318 on Oct 17, 2023 8:51:20 GMT -5
Massey still has HC favored by 17 (34-17) with an 84% chance for the win. Bulletin board material for the Pards. This week/game is Lafayette's super bowl. HC has a target on their backs (as they do each week.) A win for the Pards and this is a very different season overall for both teams.
I hope we see some of our walking wounded back on the field.
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Post by bfoley82 on Oct 17, 2023 9:55:21 GMT -5
I wouldn't be quoting an account with 38 followers as gospel
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Post by newfieguy74 on Oct 17, 2023 10:08:51 GMT -5
Massey still has HC favored by 17 (34-17) with an 84% chance for the win. Bulletin board material for the Pards. This week/game is Lafayette's super bowl. HC has a target on their backs (as they do each week.) A win for the Pards and this is a very different season overall for both teams. I hope we see some of our walking wounded back on the field. Weren't we favored by about the same amount over Harvard? I take Massey with several pounds of salt.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 17, 2023 10:11:39 GMT -5
Massey still has HC favored by 17 (34-17) with an 84% chance for the win. Bulletin board material for the Pards. This week/game is Lafayette's super bowl. HC has a target on their backs (as they do each week.) A win for the Pards and this is a very different season overall for both teams. I hope we see some of our walking wounded back on the field. Weren't we favored by about the same amount over Harvard? I take Massey with several pounds of salt. Yes, but without the 5 turnovers we would certainly gave defeated Harvard
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Post by bfoley82 on Oct 17, 2023 10:21:31 GMT -5
Weren't we favored by about the same amount over Harvard? I take Massey with several pounds of salt. Yes, but without the 5 turnovers we would certainly gave defeated Harvard What says Holy Cross doesn't turn it over five times this weekend with the bad weather?
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 17, 2023 11:07:00 GMT -5
Yes, but without the 5 turnovers we would certainly gave defeated Harvard What says Holy Cross doesn't turn it over five times this weekend with the bad weather? Care to make a wager on it?
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Post by midwestsader05 on Oct 17, 2023 11:32:44 GMT -5
There's no mention of Lafayette because..... 1. National analysts think the PL is awful 2. Lafayette has yet to beat anyone of significance or even close to being of significance 3. They have no track record of recent success against national competition The Leopards aren't even getting or barely getting Top 25 votes....(correct me if I'm wrong). LC has to run the table to get in. Stats Perform...Lafayette 32 [votes] Fordham and Laffy are #26 and #28 in the Coaches poll respectively and 27 and 29 in the Stats Media poll. Both right on the cusp. They are getting respect. We knock off both and we are likely back in the Top 10 in the Coaches poll and close in the Media poll. And if either beat us they will be firmly in the top 25. When is the last time the PL had 3 teams in the top 30 including one in the top 15 this late in the season? IDK.
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