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Post by longsuffering on Oct 27, 2023 23:23:13 GMT -5
Mostly the result of the strong support by voters for Missouri Valley Big Sky Southern CAA- Philly and South Instead of considering schools North of Philly 4-3 talks, unfortunately. People who run the ranking sites, who vote in the polls and man the selection committee don't go around saying "I'm biased against the Patriot League." HC got a seed last year out of the PL and this year the PL is +3 vs FCS. There has been one reference to a possible two bids from the PL this season, unfortunately that was Laffy and Fordham but it shows that the PL is not chopped liver. This Fordham game is going to be a sold out classic with both teams having only one league loss and still in contention for everything. Go Cross!
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Post by efg72 on Oct 28, 2023 8:07:15 GMT -5
Agree, but my comment was intended to be more of a possible historical bias in how FCS football in the northeast might be ranked by voters and the committee.
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Post by longsuffering on Oct 28, 2023 10:50:14 GMT -5
Everything is fact based. HC's ranking so far this season has been strongly influenced by last season's performance but as the schedule plays out it becomes more based on this year's actual results.
By the time Selection Sunday arrives the committee members will take their responsibility as seriously as we all do when serving on boards and committees and vote based on on-field performance not geographic prejudice. I really can't imagine anything else. They don’t round up a bunch of voters at closing time in a sports bar, these are industry professionals.
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Post by cruskater31 on Oct 28, 2023 11:26:02 GMT -5
One game at a time for us. Had a spirited discussion with a classmate last night about bracketology. He is convinced we need to win the auto-bid because with Army's run game he sees that as a clear loss. I actually argued that it might be better for us if Laffy wins out with BC bowling and Harvard winning out. That got me thinking...how do we get a ranked win at this point. Fordham is RV. "Now" in my scenario is pretending we are at the end of the season and is pure speculation.
Scenario 1: Harvard wins out and BC goes bowling. We beat Fordham and Laffy wins out. Lafayette: 10-0 vs FCS; 0-1 vs FBS; 1 then and now ranked win (HC 11/14); 0 ranked losses. Holy Cross:7-2 vs FCS; 1-1 vs FBS; 0 ranked wins; 2 then and now ranked loses (Harv 25/15, Laffy RV/12)
Scenario 2: Laffy loses to Fordham but wins all others. Lafayette: 9-1 vs FCS; 0-1 vs FBS; 1 then and now ranked win (HC 11/14); 0 ranked losses (Fordham wouldn't be ranked unless they beat HC) Fordham: 7-3 vs FCS; 1-0 vs FBS; 1 then and now ranked win (Laffy 15/19), 1 ranked loss (HC 11/14) Holy Cross: 7-2 vs FCS; 1-1 vs FBS; 0 ranked wins; 2 then and now ranked loses (Harv 25/15, Laffy RV/19)
Scenario 3: Laffy loses to Georgetown but wins out. Lafayette: 9-1 vs FCS; 0-1 vs FBS; 1 then and now ranked win (HC 11/14); 1 now ranked loss (GU 25) Holy Cross:7-2 vs FCS; 1-1 vs FBS; 1 then ranked wins (GU 25); 2 then and now ranked loses (Harv 25/15, Laffy RV/19)
If GU beats Laffy and beats Gate and Bucky, they could potentially be RV when they face us.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Oct 28, 2023 16:09:03 GMT -5
Indians St leading late against North Dakota. Important.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Oct 29, 2023 8:05:25 GMT -5
We didn’t get much help yesterday with the following teams that figure to be on the bubble winning —
Mercer North Dakota W&M Chattanooga Youngstown Richmond
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Post by efg72 on Oct 29, 2023 8:28:31 GMT -5
Everything is fact based. HC's ranking so far this season has been strongly influenced by last season's performance but as the schedule plays out it becomes more based on this year's actual results. By the time Selection Sunday arrives the committee members will take their responsibility as seriously as we all do when serving on boards and committees and vote based on on-field performance not geographic prejudice. I really can't imagine anything else. They don’t round up a bunch of voters at closing time in a sports bar, these are industry professionals. You are talking about the selection committee members , and I agree they will do their job. I was talking about voters in the various polls who may or may not slot vote, and perhaps didn't watch certain teams play.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Oct 29, 2023 11:51:33 GMT -5
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Post by longsuffering on Oct 29, 2023 13:15:49 GMT -5
Excellent. The question of does an 8-3 Fordham get in over a 7-4 HC who beat the Rams has been answered by this analyst. It's not the final answer but complies with my suspicion that the actual number of wins generally trumps the myriad of other variables that generate so much discussion. In a decision between 8-3 teams the obvious choice is the one who won the head to head match. Beat Army!
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Post by cruskater31 on Oct 29, 2023 14:20:48 GMT -5
under the scenarios listed above we need to pull for Lafayette to beat Fordham in PA on the same weekend we are playing Army. Best case scenario, Lafayette loses to both Gate and Lehigh but beats Fordham to knock Fordham off the bubble thereby preventing an 8-3 FU from trumping us. Based on Colgate's performance vs Bucknell I don't have hope for Colgate over Lafayette.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Oct 29, 2023 14:46:10 GMT -5
under the scenarios listed above we need to pull for Lafayette to beat Fordham in PA on the same weekend we are playing Army. Best case scenario, Lafayette loses to both Gate and Lehigh but beats Fordham to knock Fordham off the bubble thereby preventing an 8-3 FU from trumping us. Based on Colgate's performance vs Bucknell I don't have hope for Colgate over Lafayette. This projection assumes we would be losing to Army. This poster on AGS is using Massey to project future outcomes. An 8-3 HC v. an 8-3 Fordham and we would almost assuredly get in over them.
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Post by hcpride on Oct 29, 2023 15:03:42 GMT -5
Excellent. The question of does an 8-3 Fordham get in over a 7-4 HC who beat the Rams has been answered by this analyst. It's not the final answer but complies with my suspicion that the actual number of wins generally trumps the myriad of other variables that generate so much discussion. In a decision between 8-3 teams the obvious choice is the one who won the head to head match. Beat Army! We have to remember that Fordham beat FBS Buffalo. A quality win. That has to be a consideration in scenarios along those lines (Fordham winning out and HC losing to Army).
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Oct 29, 2023 16:06:34 GMT -5
Excellent. The question of does an 8-3 Fordham get in over a 7-4 HC who beat the Rams has been answered by this analyst. It's not the final answer but complies with my suspicion that the actual number of wins generally trumps the myriad of other variables that generate so much discussion. In a decision between 8-3 teams the obvious choice is the one who won the head to head match. Beat Army! We have to remember that Fordham beat FBS Buffalo. A quality win. That has to be a consideration in scenarios along those lines (Fordham winning out and HC losing to Army). Also, an 8-3 Fordham would have a win over likely PL champion Lafayette, who we lost to. And if we finish 7-4, we'll have 0 FBS wins to Fordham's one. So 8-3 Fordham in over 7-4 Holy Cross would be totally fair despite the head to head when you take that all into account.
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Post by sader1970 on Oct 29, 2023 16:13:08 GMT -5
So, am I reading that correctly that Fordham would be favored over Lafayette?
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Oct 29, 2023 16:22:31 GMT -5
So, am I reading that correctly that Fordham would be favored over Lafayette? Correct.
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Post by efg72 on Oct 29, 2023 16:31:28 GMT -5
Excellent. The question of does an 8-3 Fordham get in over a 7-4 HC who beat the Rams has been answered by this analyst. It's not the final answer but complies with my suspicion that the actual number of wins generally trumps the myriad of other variables that generate so much discussion. In a decision between 8-3 teams the obvious choice is the one who won the head to head match. Beat Army! We have to remember that Fordham beat FBS Buffalo. A quality win. That has to be a consideration in scenarios along those lines (Fordham winning out and HC losing to Army). The Committe weighs the record along with Many variables including full body of work, SOS, strength of conference, wins over ranked teams, FBS wins, head to head, injuries, etc All we can do is beat Lehigh on Saturday. The next three weeks will deliver more upsets and chaos for the Committee to address
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Post by cruskater31 on Oct 29, 2023 16:37:25 GMT -5
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Post by longsuffering on Oct 29, 2023 17:11:42 GMT -5
Duchesne? Interestingly, other than Fordham we don't play A-10 teams much in either football or basketball even though there are 15 or so of them in the Eastern half of the country. There is commentary lamenting HC passing up the Big East in basketball, men's hockey missing out on the ECAC or Hockey East, and football potentially moving "up" to the CAA, but not much chatter lamenting HC not joining the A-10. Was that ever a consideration?
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Post by hc87 on Oct 29, 2023 17:16:04 GMT -5
It'll be interesting.....lot of scoreboard watching in Novembahh. Not to get too ahead of things (beat Lehigh) but I will here, we should end up 7-2 in FCS games. Those 2 losses could end up being to a 9-1 Harvard and a 10-1 Lafayette. I know there is a bias against Ivy and PL nationally but it's pretty hard to say those are "bad" losses.
Beat Army and go 8-3 and I think this will all be moot.
Another factor I hate to bring up but Sluka's availibility for the playoffs may be a factor too i.e. bringing "star power" to the tournament.
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Post by longsuffering on Oct 29, 2023 17:22:01 GMT -5
But is "star power" a big deal in choosing bubble FCS teams? There are no television ratings to be concerned about until Frisco, unlike a bowl game which their selection committee has to weigh in choosing teams to invite. And how often does a bubble team go all the way to get on national TV?
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Post by efg72 on Oct 29, 2023 17:25:03 GMT -5
As much as you never want to play an injured player, I doubt Chesney would have played Matt yesterday if he thought he wasn't close to a full return
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Post by hc87 on Oct 29, 2023 17:30:06 GMT -5
But is "star power" a big deal in choosing bubble FCS teams? There are no television ratings to be concerned about until Frisco, unlike a bowl game which their selection committee has to weigh in choosing teams to invite. And how often does a bubble team go all the way to get on national TV? I really have no idea....but it obviously can't hurt.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Oct 29, 2023 17:36:37 GMT -5
Actually, I was wondering if HC would get brownie points with the selection folks for a quality win using a backup QB.
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Post by hcpride on Oct 29, 2023 17:39:54 GMT -5
I was thinking along the same lines if the loss would hurt Fordham a bit more than usual in the rankings given that they lost at home to HC when HC was essentially missing its superstar QB.
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Post by hc87 on Oct 29, 2023 17:43:00 GMT -5
I also think our showing in the past 2 years in the playoffs could help too....beating SHU and then losing a close one at Nova in 2021 and beating UNH and playing eventual champs SDSU tough out there last year. Again, can't hurt.
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