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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 31, 2023 0:49:19 GMT -5
It's time for our annual poll, a competition to see who does the best job of forecasting the 2023-2024 season for the Crusaders. The long, hideous nightmare of the Nelson years is over and many (all?) of us have high expectations that we will get much better results with Dave Paulsen at the helm. Will we improve significantly and immediately or will it be a slow build? We’ve lost Gerrale Gates, who will be sorely missed, and Nolan Dorsey, a solid contributor, but we have some new talent joining the team and returning players who we hope will move forward. So, how many games do you predict that we will win in 2023-2024?
Over the years we have, not surprisingly, tended to be optimists. In the last six polls our composite is:
231=72% Too High 65= 20% Correct, i.e. chose the box that included the final number of wins 25= 8% Too Low
As a refresher-- it spurs more productive debate, and is more entertaining, if, in addition to checking a box on the poll, you also submit a post with your precise number of wins. Many posters like to provide a recap of OOC, Patriot League Conference games, and post season games (which includes PL tournament and beyond). 11 posters selected the correct “8-10” prediction but among those who stated their precise prediction, NYCrusader2010 stands out as the only predictor on record with 10 Wins
Also please note that you may disregard my editorial comments next to the win brackets in the poll--or call me out in your post. We are looking for the number of wins for the season whether you believe that win total to be good, bad, or indifferent and whether or not you believe we should be playing Elms . The poll closes on Nov 6 at 7:00 PM when we begin the season at Siena . As I see it we have
13 OOC games-- exhibition games do not count, but the D-3 game does 18 PL Conference regular season games 1 or more games in the PL tournament, and any games beyond the PL tournament-NCAA, NIT, etc
Good luck to you all, but more so to the Crusaders!
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Post by longsuffering on Oct 31, 2023 3:33:32 GMT -5
12 wins. A 20% increase from 10 to 12 wins while absorbing new players into a new system is solid progress.
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Post by sader1970 on Oct 31, 2023 5:39:30 GMT -5
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Post by rgs318 on Oct 31, 2023 5:43:44 GMT -5
OK, I'll drink the Purple Kool-aid.
OOC = 6 wins (the teamn will be getting its act together throughout the ooc games - I see wins against Sacred Heart, IUPUI, Elon, Maine, CCSU, and Elms. (Upset pick = Winthrop) PL Season = 9 wins PL Tournament = 1 win 16 wins in all One upset win away from 17 wins and the "Cross is back" label. BTW: Massey's scores predict HC will win 4 ooc games and none in the PL. Many are picked to be close games, so it may not be nearly as bad as his scores make it look. I don't think I am going too far out on a limb to say HC will do better than he predicts. Even with his numbers, I am looking forward to the coming season. Thanks KY for starting this. The only negative I see this year is that for most of the. hoop season, football will be over.
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Post by ndgradbuthcfan on Oct 31, 2023 6:55:23 GMT -5
11 wins. Coach Paulson is a big upgrade but he's no miracle worker.
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Post by trimster on Oct 31, 2023 6:56:30 GMT -5
I went with 11-13 wins. Dave Paulsen is facing a major rebuild of the basketball program and I think it is going to take more than one season to start winning again. I have confidence he can do it but not overnight.
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Post by dadominate on Oct 31, 2023 7:05:04 GMT -5
while still some time away from the return of the program i foresee under paulsen, i think we take a big step forward... particularly as we get deeper into the season in a relatively weak PL (including a PLT win).
16 wins
5-8 OOC 10-8 PL 1-1 PLT
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Post by newfieguy74 on Oct 31, 2023 8:36:28 GMT -5
11 wins. Not great but the team will be competitive in most games and will be well coached. Turning around a program doesn't happen overnight and I'm confident DP can do it. The caption for my number of wins is "Shouldn't we do better than this?" to which I would answer--Not Yet.
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Post by Ray on Oct 31, 2023 8:45:58 GMT -5
I was right on the line between the 11-13 and 14-16, but I think (gasp) our first post-season win since 2019 sneaks us into the next tier of the poll (and is a major indicator of Paulsen's Year 1 progress):
4-9 OOC 9-9 PL 1-1 PLTourney -------------------- 14-19 overall
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Post by efg72 on Oct 31, 2023 9:12:04 GMT -5
We might start slowly in the OOC, but by the end of December, we should be 4-9 and playing better.
No, I don't think we should play D-3 teams.
At this point, we don't know about the rotation, who is playing PG, the questions about team defense and rebounding, and what contributions can we expect from the bigs, given their injuries and limited playing time over the past few years. I would like to see Declan get some time early in the season and see how he develops
I think the PL is weaker this year, and we go 10-8 and, with some breaks and good bounces, 12-6, and like others, I see us going 1-1 in the playoffs as we lose a close game in the semi-finals and finish the season 15-18.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Oct 31, 2023 9:21:36 GMT -5
First better than .500 season since -- if you can believe it -- the 2013-14 season...
5-8 OOC 11-7 PL 1-1 PLT
17-16 overall
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Post by rgs318 on Oct 31, 2023 9:30:13 GMT -5
We might start slowly in the OOC, but by the end of December, we should be 4-9 and playing better. No, I don't think we should play D-3 teams. At this point, we don't know about the rotation, who is playing PG, the questions about team defense and rebounding, and what contributions can we expect from the bigs, given their injuries and limited playing time over the past few years. I would like to see Declan get some time early in the season and see how he develops I think the PL is weaker this year, and we go 10-8 and, with some breaks and good bounces, 12-6, and like others, I see us going 1-1 in the playoffs as we lose a close game in the semi-finals and finish the season 15-18. Every point you raise has also concerned me. I feel I know less about this team and most of its players than I have in years. Yet, I feel more positive about our chances - probably due to Coach Paulson. The last few years (decade?) has taught me to be pessimistic. However, the questions we see will soon be answered and, hopefully, in a good way. I am less concderned at this point with wins and losses than with seeing how well this team bonds - itself together with its new coach.
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Post by efg72 on Oct 31, 2023 9:37:41 GMT -5
The key for this season, imho, will be teaching this team how to win and close out games. That success will bring confidence to the young team and position them for a brighter future.
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Post by hcnation on Oct 31, 2023 14:04:11 GMT -5
4-9 OOC 9-9 PL 1-1 PLTourney
14 total
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Post by sader1970 on Oct 31, 2023 14:19:08 GMT -5
Hard pass. Just too many variables to even guess. New coach, lots of new players. Some "old" players whose condition is unknown. A fairly upgraded schedule. Playing a "girls school." Nah, I'll leave it to you semi-experts.
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Post by ephoops on Oct 31, 2023 14:34:28 GMT -5
If HCDP's history is an indicator of the team's performance, I expect:
* A top 100 team in defensive rebounding % * A top 125 team in fewest turnovers % * A bottom 20% team in offensive rebounding % * A bottom 15% team in forcing turnovers %
As for offensive metrics (i.e., 2-pt FG %, 3-pt FG %, offense efficiency (pts/possession), etc.), I have no idea. HCDP's teams typically shoot the ball well but I do not have a feel for the current roster's shooting capabilities.
HCDP's philosophy of:
a) rebound on defense b) don't take chances on steals c) get back on defense after a shot is taken (i.e., don't crash the offensive boards), and d) don't turn the ball over
has served him well over the years, particularly at Williams and Bucknell.
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Post by alum on Oct 31, 2023 14:47:07 GMT -5
OOC 4-9 (SHU, IUIPI, Elms, CCSU) PL--8-10 PL Tournament 1-1
13 wins. I think we have three guys we can rely on and a bunch of other guys. Some of the other guys will probably surprise me but some, I am afraid, are just never going to work out because of injuries or other reasons.
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Post by timholycross on Oct 31, 2023 15:05:22 GMT -5
13-19. I'll also say they break even in the league, but win one fewer before that.
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Post by trimster on Oct 31, 2023 15:05:41 GMT -5
If HCDP's history is an indicator of the team's performance, I expect: * A top 100 team in defensive rebounding % * A top 125 team in fewest turnovers % * A bottom 20% team in offensive rebounding % * A bottom 15% team in forcing turnovers % As for offensive metrics (i.e., 2-pt FG %, 3-pt FG %, offense efficiency (pts/possession), etc.), I have no idea. HCDP's teams typically shoot the ball well but I do not have a feel for the current roster's shooting capabilities. HCDP's philosophy of: a) rebound on defense b) don't take chances on steals c) get back on defense after a shot is taken (i.e., don't crash the offensive boards), and d) don't turn the ball over has served him well over the years, particularly at Williams and Bucknell. This is in line with DP’s comments about first learning to not lose before learning to win. In other words don’t beat yourself with turnovers, missed free throws, poor D and rebounding.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Oct 31, 2023 15:19:08 GMT -5
If HCDP's history is an indicator of the team's performance, I expect: * A top 100 team in defensive rebounding % * A top 125 team in fewest turnovers % * A bottom 20% team in offensive rebounding % * A bottom 15% team in forcing turnovers % As for offensive metrics (i.e., 2-pt FG %, 3-pt FG %, offense efficiency (pts/possession), etc.), I have no idea. HCDP's teams typically shoot the ball well but I do not have a feel for the current roster's shooting capabilities. HCDP's philosophy of: a) rebound on defense b) don't take chances on steals c) get back on defense after a shot is taken (i.e., don't crash the offensive boards), and d) don't turn the ball over has served him well over the years, particularly at Williams and Bucknell. Looking forward to your continued and valued contributions to our board this season.
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Post by Tom on Oct 31, 2023 15:32:09 GMT -5
If last year is an indication, people who pick 8-10 (or better) and 1-1 should be looking at a first round bye and thus a trip to the semis for the first time since 2018
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Post by hc87 on Oct 31, 2023 16:47:16 GMT -5
From my hermitically sealed mayonnaise jar: 5-8 OOC 9-9 PL 1-1 PLT For a grand total of 15.....HEYOOO!!!
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Oct 31, 2023 17:05:36 GMT -5
Hard pass. Just too many variables to even guess. New coach, lots of new players. Some "old" players whose condition is unknown. A fairly upgraded schedule. Playing a "girls school." Nah, I'll leave it to you semi-experts. Yeah--when you meeta great challenge it's best to just avoid it rather than testing yourself......
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Post by sader1970 on Oct 31, 2023 18:49:55 GMT -5
challenge noun (DIFFICULT JOB)
(the situation of being faced with) something that needs great mental or physical effort in order to be done successfully and therefore tests a person's ability
Ya see, a challenge assumes you have some ability to test. I've got nada in this area. Any suggested answer from me would be a pure guess with no more likelihood of being remotely correct than simply choosing a random number.
But, since I don't want to disappoint you, here are some random numbers and will laugh my a$$ off if they turn out accurate:
6 OOC 13 PL 2 PL tourney
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hc99
Crusader Century Club
Posts: 117
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Post by hc99 on Nov 1, 2023 13:22:16 GMT -5
I'm in the 11-13 win category but I think we'll have a lot of close losses so with a few lucky bounces we could end up in the 14-16 win realm.
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