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Post by alum on Nov 8, 2023 9:05:15 GMT -5
A couple of thoughts about Sam's projections with the understanding that none of this matters as to an at large unless we beat Army:
1. I do not understand why Mercer is considered an easy choice for the field. Even if they beat Samford (and hopefully they do not) to end up 8-3, their only decent win will be against Western Carolina. None of their other wins are against teams with a winning record and, in fact, two of their wins are against teams which have not yet won a game. Three of our wins are against teams with winning records and we have a quality loss against a bowl eligible FBS team to go with an FBS win over Army.
2. I think that Chattanooga is more deserving of a bid than Mercer especially since the Mocs beat the Baptists/Bears.
3. As others have pointed out IW is a hoax.
4. Elon currently has four losses (one FBS) and still has to play Richmond and Hampton. I think that if they lose to Richmond they are out. Best case scenario would then be for Richmond to lose to W & M and leave them both at 7-4. One or both might still get in ahead of us, but I would rather they be at seven wins than eight.
5. If either Dobbs or Sluka isn't clearly healthy when the committee is making the final decisions, can that hurt us? The selection criteria are all backward looking, but I have to think that this will impact some voters.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 8, 2023 9:10:07 GMT -5
I don't think either 7-4 Elon or Richmond get in over us if we finish 8-3.
Elon losing to Richmond and Richmond losing to W&M is a scenario we would hope for.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 8, 2023 9:29:28 GMT -5
7-4 Elon would be 7-1 in the CAA and could capture the auto bid depending upon the UD v Villanova result. They would be tough to leave out at 7-1 in the CAA and co-champs. Plus, both their OOC losses are very high quality - A top 10 NC Central team and G-Webb who's in the driver's seat to win the Big South/OVC.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 8, 2023 9:31:44 GMT -5
7-4 Elon would be 7-1 in the CAA and could capture the auto bid depending upon the UD v Villanova result. They would be tough to leave out at 7-1 in the CAA and co-champs. Plus, both their OOC losses are very high quality - A top 10 NC Central team and G-Webb who's in the driver's seat to win the Big South/OVC. Yea you're right. If they lose to UR that will put them at 5 losses. 7-4 means they win out and win at least a share of the CAA. They'd be in no question! My point that we need them to lose to Richmond stands. As that would 100% chop them off the bubble as they would have no path to 7 DI wins.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 8, 2023 9:34:31 GMT -5
Moving this here since that's where it belongs...
"Will the folks that are very bullish on an 8-3 playoff bid help me get there cause I’m still stuck at 50/50. Here’s what I have so far as a base case assuming no crazy upsets either way. Records for teams on the bubble but in.
Big Sky - 4 1) Montana 2) Idaho 3) MT State 4) Sac State (8-3)
Big South / OVC - 2 1) G-Webb (auto bid) 2) UT Martin (9-2)
CAA - 4 1) Albany 2) UD 3) Delaware 4) Elon/Richmond winner this Saturday should win on 11/18. Elon would claim a share of CAA title and would be in with possible auto bid at 7-1 in CAA. Richmond would be 8-3 with win.
MVC - 5 1) SDSU 2) USD 3/4/5 - UNI, UND, YSU, NDSU, SIU - Everything I’ve read has the MVC as at least a 5 bid league this year. The debate is on whether they are a 6 bid league and it’s fairly evenly split. But let’s give them the fewer 5 for now.
So Con - 3 1) Furman 2) WCU 3) Mercer (8-3)
UAC - 1 1) Austin Peay
Southland - 1 1) Nicholls Pioneer - 1 1) Davidson
Patriot - 1 1) Lafayette
NEC - 1 1) Duquesne
So that’s 23. Final spot bubble: Holy Cross 8-3, the 6th MVC team at 7-4 and 5-3 in MVC. UIW 9-2 (7-1 v FCS), Chattanooga 7-4 (7-3 v FCS), EIU 8-3.
So that’s a pretty thin window and why I keep coming back to around 50/50. You might say “well the CAA could eat itself and only get 3 (Richmond beats Elon then W&M beats Richmond etc) but on the flip side I’m not accounting for SEMO or UCA stealing auto bids by winning out. Or should Howard upset NC Central and win the SWAC, Central will be a 9-2 at large, etc.
So again, I think 23 spots are fairly certain at this point, things could break a bit either way but should even out close to that number before an 8-3 HC enters the conversation."
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Post by cruskater31 on Nov 8, 2023 9:34:32 GMT -5
I think Elon has to win out to get in, which as midwest just pointed out would put them as CAA co-champs. 1-1 from Elon would put them at 6-5. Two wins by the Spiders gets Richmond to 8-3. Have to be rooting for the Tribe to beat Richmond next week.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 8, 2023 9:40:33 GMT -5
Yup the ideal scenario in the CAA is Richmond beats Elon and then W&M beats Richmond. Which I would note would be the two home teams winning so not quite like nailing a straight on the river. Part of my wonders if the Tribe have packed it in though after the pre-season hype. They also have to travel to a much improved Hampton team this weekend first.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 8, 2023 9:47:47 GMT -5
Take a close look at Delaware.
I think most assume they're safely in given their high ranking throughout the season, but it's a pretty soft schedule.
OOC they feasted on NEC teams (SFPA and Duquesne).
In the CAA, they missed out on having to play Albany and Richmond.
Their final two games won't be easy -- on the road at Campbell and then their end-of-year rivalry game against Nova.
They are probably in at 8-3 (should they drop one more game), but I think it's a sweat on selection Sunday.
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Post by cruskater31 on Nov 8, 2023 9:49:54 GMT -5
Take a close look at Delaware. I think most assume they're safely in given their high ranking throughout the season, but it's a pretty soft schedule. OOC they feasted on NEC teams (SFPA and Duquesne). In the CAA, they missed out on having to play Albany and Richmond. Their final two games won't be easy -- on the road at Campbell and then their end-of-year rivalry game against Nova. They are probably in at 8-3 (should they drop one more game), but I think it's a sweat on selection Sunday. SoV, do we think it is better for Delaware to win out and maybe get a seed or is it better for Nova to win and Delaware to be thrown into the at large fray?
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 8, 2023 9:57:16 GMT -5
Take a close look at Delaware. I think most assume they're safely in given their high ranking throughout the season, but it's a pretty soft schedule. OOC they feasted on NEC teams (SFPA and Duquesne). In the CAA, they missed out on having to play Albany and Richmond. Their final two games won't be easy -- on the road at Campbell and then their end-of-year rivalry game against Nova. They are probably in at 8-3 (should they drop one more game), but I think it's a sweat on selection Sunday. SoV, do we think it is better for Delaware to win out and maybe get a seed or is it better for Nova to win and Delaware to be thrown into the at large fray? Whatever gets the CAA the fewest at-large teams! Here's the dreamy scenario for the CAA's 5-1 teams in conference -- Albany loses to either SBU or Monmouth -- 8-4 record Richmond beats Elon, loses to W&M -- 7-4 record. Elon is no better than 6-5 (OUT) Delaware loses to Campbell and Nova -- 7-4 record. Nova, for all we care, wins out -- 9-2 record. CAA becomes, very possibly, a two-bid league.
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Post by breezy on Nov 8, 2023 10:07:43 GMT -5
Best chance -- perhaps the only chance.
Fordham beats Lafayette and HC beats Georgetown.
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Post by alum on Nov 8, 2023 10:12:30 GMT -5
Best chance -- perhaps the only chance. Fordham beats Lafayette and HC beats Georgetown. You are right, but that's not as much fun as playing with all of the possibliities.
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Post by Ignutz on Nov 8, 2023 10:19:16 GMT -5
SoV, do we think it is better for Delaware to win out and maybe get a seed or is it better for Nova to win and Delaware to be thrown into the at large fray? Whatever gets the CAA the fewest at-large teams! Here's the dreamy scenario for the CAA's 5-1 teams in conference -- Albany loses to either SBU or Monmouth -- 7-4 record Richmond beats Elon, loses to W&M -- 7-4 record. Elon is no better than 6-5 (OUT) Delaware loses to Campbell and Nova -- 7-4 record. Nova, for all we care, wins out -- 9-2 record. CAA becomes, very possibly, a two-bid league. And the latest Bracketology has Albany as the #7 seed. Have I not been paying attention?
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Post by hcpride on Nov 8, 2023 10:27:21 GMT -5
Whatever gets the CAA the fewest at-large teams! Here's the dreamy scenario for the CAA's 5-1 teams in conference -- Albany loses to either SBU or Monmouth -- 7-4 record Richmond beats Elon, loses to W&M -- 7-4 record. Elon is no better than 6-5 (OUT) Delaware loses to Campbell and Nova -- 7-4 record. Nova, for all we care, wins out -- 9-2 record. CAA becomes, very possibly, a two-bid league. And the latest Bracketology has Albany as the #7 seed. Have I not been paying attention? Albany has been underrated on the coaches poll, they look good on the eye test, and the QB is talented. Should have no probs finishing 8-3 (w/2 respectable losses to FCS). That said, #7 seed seems a bit high considering their current rank (#25 [!] on Coaches Poll).
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 8, 2023 11:21:48 GMT -5
Albany would be 9-3. They are the only FCS team with a 12 game schedule this year. The could probably even lose to Monmouth in the season finale and get in at 8-4 (8-2 v FCS with wins against Nova, URI, W&M and Fordham). I don’t see them losing however as they have been lights out at home this year and get MU at their place. Herder is predicting them as a seed if they end up winning the CAA outright which they will if Nova beats UD and/or Elon loses. The Danes at 9-1 v FCS with 2 close losses to FBS (they blew it against Marshall and could have won) is an impressive resume.
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Post by newfieguy74 on Nov 8, 2023 11:35:35 GMT -5
Best chance -- perhaps the only chance. Fordham beats Lafayette and HC beats Georgetown. Or Lehigh beats Lafayette (and HC beats Georgetown)?
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 8, 2023 11:50:40 GMT -5
I've been bullish on Albany all year. Would love to see them get a seed...and lose to us in the Round of 16.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 8, 2023 12:33:55 GMT -5
I’ve said many times to many folks, Albany has the best front 6 on Defense (run a lot of 3-3) I’ve seen all year (and I watch as much FCS football as possible). That plus a talented QB is a recipe for a run.
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Post by breezy on Nov 8, 2023 13:42:54 GMT -5
Best chance -- perhaps the only chance. Fordham beats Lafayette and HC beats Georgetown. Or Lehigh beats Lafayette (and HC beats Georgetown)? That would work too, although I think it is less likfely than the scenario I presented.
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 8, 2023 14:12:19 GMT -5
A couple of thoughts about Sam's projections with the understanding that none of this matters as to an at large unless we beat Army: 1. I do not understand why Mercer is considered an easy choice for the field. Even if they beat Samford (and hopefully they do not) to end up 8-3, their only decent win will be against Western Carolina. None of their other wins are against teams with a winning record and, in fact, two of their wins are against teams which have not yet won a game. Three of our wins are against teams with winning records and we have a quality loss against a bowl eligible FBS team to go with an FBS win over Army. 2. I think that Chattanooga is more deserving of a bid than Mercer especially since the Mocs beat the Baptists/Bears. 3. As others have pointed out IW is a hoax. 4. Elon currently has four losses (one FBS) and still has to play Richmond and Hampton. I think that if they lose to Richmond they are out. Best case scenario would then be for Richmond to lose to W & M and leave them both at 7-4. One or both might still get in ahead of us, but I would rather they be at seven wins than eight. 5. If either Dobbs or Sluka isn't clearly healthy when the committee is making the final decisions, can that hurt us? The selection criteria are all backward looking, but I have to think that this will impact some voters. 5) Team A outperforms team B during the eleven game season. Team A has injuries to key contributors. Team B is vaulted over team A for a slot in the playoffs? Just trying to project myself into the committee room, I would be uncomfortable trying to predict which team will be healthier in the playoffs but comfortable choosing the teams that earned a bid by their on-field performance during the season.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 8, 2023 15:39:37 GMT -5
Some insightful nuggets.
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Post by alum on Nov 10, 2023 9:00:45 GMT -5
Sam Herder with another podcast. No mention of HC. Lengthy discussion of Southern Conf, CAA, Big Sky and Valley. I listened in the car and did not take notes, but IIRC, he and his panelists think SoCon could get 3 or 4 bids, CAA could get 2 or 3, with 5 or 6 to the Valley. They discussed seeds including Furman being a #2 potentially which I think is a little crazy. I can see them being a top 4 with their no FCS loss record, but top 2 would seem to ignore their very lame SOS. herosports.com/fcs-podcast-roundtable-bzbz/Here is a discussion from Herder about the CAA herosports.com/fcs-football-caa-playoff-race-dsds/
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Post by hcpride on Nov 10, 2023 9:04:33 GMT -5
/\ There's probably a general thought amongst the serious prognosticators that we are a one-bid league this year so there is not much discussion to be had at this point in terms of PL.
When we beat Army (and Laffy wins) that may change.
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Post by alum on Nov 10, 2023 9:13:37 GMT -5
/\ There's probably a general thought amongst the serious prognosticators that we are a one-bid league this year so there is not much discussion to be had at this point in terms of PL. When we beat Army (and Laffy wins) that may change. I agree. Part of me thinks that some of the prognositicators might think we are going to end up with the AQ so they don't have to confront this question. EDIT: Or just cannot believe our guys can beat Army despite the fact that the lines I have seen are only making Army a 4.5 point favorite.
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Post by hchoops on Nov 10, 2023 9:45:21 GMT -5
/\ There's probably a general thought amongst the serious prognosticators that we are a one-bid league this year so there is not much discussion to be had at this point in terms of PL. (and Laffy wins) Bite your tongue( or finger)
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