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Post by Non Alum Dave on Nov 19, 2023 5:41:16 GMT -5
After 5 games KenPom has us ranked #360 in defense in D-1. At the risk of incurring a headache - is there a dumbed down way to describe how that is calculated? I've also highlighted what I think should be considered at this point. I mean, even I can see the team struggles to keep drivers out of the lane.....and also struggles with closing out on kickouts. When was the last time in the modern era that HC was successful playing m-2-m? Well, if that is the approach, then they will need to really efficient offensively, I would think. How do they currently rank offensively? Just glancing at the offensive stats last night, there were a couple of positives: hit 40% of their 3s, and had 16 assists to 8 turnovers. Poor Bo is really struggling - it's not like he's taking a lot of wild shots; he's just not making the ones he's proven can make, like the turnaround fall-away. Hope he can shake it off. Ok Coach, I have one lineup I would like to see you try out of a timeout: Louth, Kenney, Octave, Williams and Wills. Just for kicks. In particular, I would like to see how Dre and AJ play together. Hopefully they can salvage something today.
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Post by crusader1970 on Nov 19, 2023 7:08:54 GMT -5
After 5 games KenPom has us ranked #360 in defense in D-1. At the risk of incurring a headache - is there a dumbed down way to describe how that is calculated? I've also highlighted what I think should be considered at this point. I mean, even I can see the team struggles to keep drivers out of the lane.....and also struggles with closing out on kickouts. When was the last time in the modern era that HC was successful playing m-2-m?
Well, if that is the approach, then they will need to really efficient offensively, I would think. How do they currently rank offensively? Just glancing at the offensive stats last night, there were a couple of positives: hit 40% of their 3s, and had 16 assists to 8 turnovers. Poor Bo is really struggling - it's not like he's taking a lot of wild shots; he's just not making the ones he's proven can make, like the turnaround fall-away. Hope he can shake it off. Ok Coach, I have one lineup I would like to see you try out of a timeout: Louth, Kenney, Octave, Williams and Wills. Just for kicks. In particular, I would like to see how Dre and AJ play together. Hopefully they can salvage something today. NAD, the answer to that same question that I posed after the SHU game is "a very very long time".
Watching us play MTM defense against a team like Elon with below average quickness makes me wonder what team will we be able to stop with our MTM?
When I suggested we at least play some zone, it was pointed out to me that in today's game a zone gives up too many threes. Guess what? Our MTM is giving up 24 three attempts a game and our opponents are hitting over 44%.
At least with a zone we could possibly take away some of the incessant open drives to the hoop that our opponents execute with ease.
I know it is said "You are never as bad as you look when you're losing." I hope that continues to ring true because, after watching our defensive effort over the last three games, I truly wonder what teams we expect to beat.
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Post by efg72 on Nov 19, 2023 8:03:03 GMT -5
This year our OOC is a great opportunity for the staff to evaluate what they have against opponents. I like some of the combinations on the floor and think they might create some changes in the lineup by league play.
Lace them up and see what today might bring
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Nov 19, 2023 8:10:20 GMT -5
Will more experience for the youngest guys make them appear quicker, in the sense of being in the right place at the right time more frequently? Dunno...
An exercise I try to conduct during non conference play is to ask myself: where would I project these teams to finish in the PL?
Siena - middle of the pack? Georgetown - near the top? Sacred Heart - near/at the top? Winthrop - near/at the top? Elon - middle of the pack? IUPUI - middle of the pack/towards the bottom?
Or to look at it another way: I think most would agree Colgate is the current standard bearer of the PL. How would they have done against this schedule? Based on how Colgate has looked so far, I would say anywhere from 5-0 to 3-2. I could see either Georgetown, Sacred Heart or Winthrop potentially beating them on a given night, just based on what I've seen so far.
If they are going to continue to struggle defensively, then they have to get more efficient offensively. Bo getting untracked would be a step in that direction. Having had very low expectations for this season, I still am very interested in watching these games to see how the young guys progress.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 19, 2023 8:17:10 GMT -5
After 5 games KenPom has us ranked #360 in defense in D-1. At the risk of incurring a headache - is there a dumbed down way to describe how that is calculated? From Pomeroy -- Offensive/Defensive Efficiency – This is the number of points scored or allowed per 100 possessions. There are only about 70 possessions for each team in the average college basketball game, so these numbers are higher that the points-per-game statistics you see used by the media. Like tempo, I average each team’s efficency by game. The other way to do this would be to take a team’s total points on the season and divide it by total possesions. But this gives some games more weight than others depending on the number of possessions in a particular contest. Also, I only use games involving two D1 teams. The raw numbers are computed from the data contained in a box score. Over the course of the season, this gives some unintuitive results, such as West Virginia currently having the 2nd most efficient offense in the nation and Texas A&M – College Station having the 2nd stingiest defense. So there’s the matter of adjusting for competition – the "adjusted" numbers. Say team A averages a pace of 62 possessions per game and team B averages 68 possessions per game. And for the sake of this example, let’s say the average college game has 70 possessions, a nice round number. For the model I use, the expected possessions in a game involving teams A and B would be 60. This results from the fact that team A averages eight possessions slower than normal and team B averages two possessions slower than normal. The sum is ten possessions slower than normal, or 60. Why would the game end up being played at a slower pace than either team’s average? A team’s average pace is a product of how they like to play and how their opponents like to play. A team playing much slower than average, like team A, is more than likely playing opponents that prefer to play faster than them. So team A’s average pace on the season is faster that they would really like if they were totally in control. The adjusted numbers are computed based on this principle. In every game, each team really wanted to play at a certain pace, and my model tries to dig this out of the data. For an example of how this works, take the Georgia Tech-Air Force game from December 11th. Georgia Tech: season average pace = 71.5 Air Force: season average pace = 53.9 The pace of that game: 62.2 Based on the average national pace of 69.2, we would have expected the game to result in 56.2 possessions. So an adjustment has to be made in the way each team wanted to play this particular game. Each team’s season average is adjusted upward by the same percentage to produce numbers that would predict the actual game pace of 62.2. In this case, Air Force’s pace for the game becomes 56.5 and Georgia Tech’s becomes 74.9. That’s how each team wanted to play, and that combination produced the game pace of 62.2. (Considering Air Force was playing from behind most of that game, it makes sense that they wanted to play faster than usual.) All games are examined like this, and a season-long adjusted pace results from averaging a team’s adjusted pace for each game played. The computations are repeated until the numbers stabilize.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Nov 19, 2023 8:31:38 GMT -5
Thanks SoV
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 19, 2023 8:51:42 GMT -5
The TLDR version in the simplest of terms —
Team A that gives up on average 75 points a game could be a better defensive team than Team B who gives up 65 points a game, if the average number of possessions in Team A’s game is more than Team B’s game.
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Post by timholycross on Nov 19, 2023 9:01:08 GMT -5
A far greater worry ( among many) is how few free throws we have attempted, "The food is terrible here...and such small portions"
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Post by timholycross on Nov 19, 2023 9:11:23 GMT -5
Can anyone remember any possession where a team had three of its shots blocked...and each block was on a different drive to the hoop, not some rebounding action?
HC was hanging around in the game up to that point, after that the wheels fell off the wagon.
Watched the game this AM, question is, can I stomach TWO games in one day?
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Post by bikeman on Nov 19, 2023 10:07:03 GMT -5
As an aging HC hoops fan, it’s hard to be patient waiting for the team to be relevant again. The coach inherited a team with no D-1 talent. It’s going to take 3-5 years at least to bring this program back.
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Post by hchoops on Nov 19, 2023 11:51:45 GMT -5
As an aging HC hoops fan, it’s hard to be patient waiting for the team to be relevant again. The coach inherited a team with no D-1 talent. It’s going to take 3-5 years at least to bring this program back. As another aging fan, I empathize with you, but am a bit more optimistic. I believe we will be back in 2-3 years.
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Post by efg72 on Nov 19, 2023 12:04:04 GMT -5
Will need to think about getting Ryan 15-20 min after the St John’s game so he can gain some experience before league play
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Post by rgs318 on Nov 19, 2023 12:30:41 GMT -5
As an aging HC hoops fan, it’s hard to be patient waiting for the team to be relevant again. The coach inherited a team with no D-1 talent. It’s going to take 3-5 years at least to bring this program back. As another aging fan, I empathize with you, but am a bit more optimistic. I believe we will be back in 2-3 years. I think that time line is reasonable. There are some good young players on the team and they will (IMHO) develop.
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Post by rgs318 on Nov 19, 2023 12:33:49 GMT -5
Huge defensive lapse allows an open pop underneath.
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Post by rgs318 on Nov 19, 2023 12:35:16 GMT -5
HC was up 8 but poor defense in the lane allows a 2 and 1.
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Post by trimster on Nov 19, 2023 16:20:38 GMT -5
As an aging HC hoops fan, it’s hard to be patient waiting for the team to be relevant again. The coach inherited a team with no D-1 talent. It’s going to take 3-5 years at least to bring this program back. As another aging fan, I empathize with you, but am a bit more optimistic. I believe we will be back in 2-3 years. A third aging fan who is really beginning to wonder if we will ever be even remotely relevant again.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Nov 19, 2023 16:34:57 GMT -5
I’m confident coach Dave paulsen will lead us to relevance, but it looks like it will not be overnight
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Post by rgs318 on Nov 19, 2023 16:38:25 GMT -5
Not "overnight" but looking a bit better/sooner after today.
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Post by Tom on Nov 19, 2023 17:30:11 GMT -5
As another aging fan, I empathize with you, but am a bit more optimistic. I believe we will be back in 2-3 years. A third aging fan who is really beginning to wonder if we will ever be even remotely relevant again. Some of that will depend on what the definition of relevant is. There are people on this board who think HC hasn't been relevant since the 50's I think HC was relevant in the Willard years. I'm hopeful but not sure HC can ever get there again
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Post by CHC8485 on Nov 19, 2023 18:00:02 GMT -5
As another aging fan, I empathize with you, but am a bit more optimistic. I believe we will be back in 2-3 years. A third aging fan who is really beginning to wonder if we will ever be even remotely relevant again. Do any of you know of fans who are NOT aging?? 😳 If so can you introduce them to me, I’d like to know how they do it. 😁
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Post by hchoops on Nov 19, 2023 19:48:02 GMT -5
A third aging fan who is really beginning to wonder if we will ever be even remotely relevant again. Do any of you know of fans who are NOT aging?? 😳 If so can you introduce them to me, I’d like to know how they do it. 😁 See fans of Duke, Villanova, UConn, Vermont, etc.
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Post by Tom on Nov 20, 2023 8:37:23 GMT -5
Do any of you know of fans who are NOT aging?? 😳 If so can you introduce them to me, I’d like to know how they do it. 😁 See fans of Duke, Villanova, UConn, Vermont, etc. Also, fans of the Ponce de Leon School don't age
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