|
Post by alum on Nov 15, 2023 16:00:41 GMT -5
Herder has posted his latest projected bracket herosports.com/fcs-football-2023-playoff-predictions-5-bzbz/He has Lafayette playing Nicholls State with winner getting #5 Delaware and Villanova playing Duquesne with winner getting #8 Albany. Obviously, that Lafayette game exceeds the preferrred 400 mile limitation and would be a flight. No idea what he thinks if HC sneaks in.
|
|
|
Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 15, 2023 17:04:06 GMT -5
Herder has posted his latest projected bracket herosports.com/fcs-football-2023-playoff-predictions-5-bzbz/He has Lafayette playing Nicholls State with winner getting #5 Delaware and Villanova playing Duquesne with winner getting #8 Albany. Obviously, that Lafayette game exceeds the preferrred 400 mile limitation and would be a flight. No idea what he thinks if HC sneaks in. So if Sam’s inclination is right (this is what he thinks the committee will do, not his opinion) and this is where HC sits heading into this Saturday, you need 6 of the following 9 outcomes to happen. I‘ll rank in 2 categories PLAUSIBLE UPSETS: NDSU WINS AT UNI SAMFORD WINS at HOME VS UT MARTIN OR CHARLESTON SOUTHERN WINS AT G-WEBB (SAMFORD W much more likely) MORGAN STATE WINS AT HOWARD (NC CENTRAL goes to the Celebration Bowl and not an at-large playoff bid) HOUSTON CHRISTIAN WINS at HOME VS UIW WILLIAM AND MARY WINS AT HOME V RICHMOND ROBERT MORRIS WINS AT HOME V EIU LONG SHOT UPSETS: VMI WINS at HOME V WESTERN CAROLINA MURRAY STATE WINS AT HOME V YSU INDIANA STATE WINS AT SOUTHERN ILL OTHER GAMES TO WATCH AND CONSIDER: ILLINOIS STATE WINS AT UND - This list tells me a 7-4 Illinois State team with a final win at UND would jump a 7-4 HC team but that’s not a given. YALE OVER HARVARD MERRIMACK OVER DUQUESNE - both to bolster HC’s win resume and SOS I gave the odds at 10% earlier this week, probably closer to 5%. Put simply, root for one longer shot upset….LEHIGH WINS AT HOME V LAFAYETTE!!
|
|
|
Post by longsuffering on Nov 15, 2023 17:04:24 GMT -5
He ignores Colgate and Georgetown in a four way PL tie. The CAA tie break scenarios look like a page out of an old encyclopedia. Good warning to stay out of huge sprawling FCS leagues. Why voluntarily reduce your percentage chance of nabbing an auto-bid? NCAA does not offer an auto bid for divisional champions in big leagues.
|
|
|
Post by alum on Nov 15, 2023 17:18:47 GMT -5
Herder has posted his latest projected bracket herosports.com/fcs-football-2023-playoff-predictions-5-bzbz/He has Lafayette playing Nicholls State with winner getting #5 Delaware and Villanova playing Duquesne with winner getting #8 Albany. Obviously, that Lafayette game exceeds the preferrred 400 mile limitation and would be a flight. No idea what he thinks if HC sneaks in. So if Sam’s inclination is right (this is what he thinks the committee will do, not his opinion) and this is where HC sits heading into this Saturday, you need 6 of the following 9 outcomes to happen. I‘ll rank in 2 categories PLAUSIBLE UPSETS: NDSU WINS AT UNI SAMFORD WINS at HOME VS UT MARTIN OR CHARLESTON SOUTHERN WINS AT G-WEBB (SAMFORD W much more likely) MORGAN STATE WINS AT HOWARD (NC CENTRAL goes to the Celebration Bowl and not an at-large playoff bid) HOUSTON CHRISTIAN WINS at HOME VS UIW WILLIAM AND MARY WINS AT HOME V RICHMOND ROBERT MORRIS WINS AT HOME V EIU LONG SHOT UPSETS: VMI WINS at HOME V WESTERN CAROLINA MURRAY STATE WINS AT HOME V YSU INDIANA STATE WINS AT SOUTHERN ILL OTHER GAMES TO WATCH AND CONSIDER: ILLINOIS STATE WINS AT UND - This list tells me a 7-4 Illinois State team with a final win at UND would jump a 7-4 HC team but that’s not a given. YALE OVER HARVARD MERRIMACK OVER DUQUESNE - both to bolster HC’s win resume. I gave the odds at 10% earlier this week, probably closer to 5%. Put simply, root for one longer shot upset….LEHIGH WINS AT HOME V LAFAYETTE!! I think you are being optimistic at 5%. 😁
|
|
|
Post by hcpride on Nov 15, 2023 17:22:31 GMT -5
Herder has posted his latest projected bracket herosports.com/fcs-football-2023-playoff-predictions-5-bzbz/He has Lafayette playing Nicholls State with winner getting #5 Delaware and Villanova playing Duquesne with winner getting #8 Albany. Obviously, that Lafayette game exceeds the preferrred 400 mile limitation and would be a flight. No idea what he thinks if HC sneaks in. 2 CAA teams seeded. Albany has been (oddly) buried in the Coach’s Poll all year and has finally moved up to 23. And Herder gives them an 8 seed.
|
|
|
Post by efg72 on Nov 15, 2023 17:30:29 GMT -5
Sit back and relax-- this is the week about Georgetown. They have over-performed, given the talent on the roster, but that is a positive quality.
I think they are a solid team, driven mainly by their offense.
Talent-wise, they are fighting well above their weight, and I expect them to do the same this weekend.
This weekend will tell us a lot about the future of some upperclassmen and their return to HC.
Unlike many, I expect Matt and Jalen to return for another season-- Based on nothing other than their love for Holy Cross.
However, if they depart, I tip my hat to both and thank each of them for the incredible contributions to elevate a program that was not as successful when they arrived as they now leave it. You owe the school little, but your heart and soul will be better in purple than in another color.
|
|
|
Post by longsuffering on Nov 15, 2023 19:47:34 GMT -5
Lovely sentiment. If Matt returns it may prompt the staff to develop schemes with both Joe P. and Matt in the game at the same time. Maybe they have them but haven't used them this season.
|
|
|
Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 17, 2023 10:08:00 GMT -5
Let's bear in mind that regardless of what happens in the games tomorrow, we are still a major long shot to receive an at-large bid. But, let's try to figure out both what our path is (thanks, midwest, for breaking down what we need in key games), along with how our resume shakes out based on selection criteria. The below is straight from the FCS 2023-24 manual -- At-large teams shall be selected by the NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee, assisted by four regionaladvisory committees that serve in an advisory capacity only.The following principles shall apply when selecting at-large teams:1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket. Per NCAABylaw 31, the basic criteria used in the selection of at-large participants are (1) won-lost record, (2) strength ofschedule, and (3) eligibility and availability of student-athletes for the NCAA championship;2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference;3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, fewer thansix Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents; and5. If a committee member’s institution is under consideration, that committee member will not be allowed in the roomduring discussions involving his/her team and may not vote for his/her team during the voting process. Similarly, acommittee member from a conference office may not be present during discussions, nor vote for any team fromhis/her conference.6. The committee will use the AFCA Coaches’ Poll and the Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll as a tool for evaluating teams.In analyzing the above, our 7-4 record doesn't set us apart from many teams. We are going to want a real logjam of teams that finish the season at 7-4. We then hope that our strength of schedule -- which is actually pretty good this season (30th heading into the final game of the season. Source: masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings), is looked favorably upon. We also hope that we get some credit for really challenging ourselves by playing two FBS teams. Losing to a bowl-bound P5 team and another team who beat a Top 25 FBS opponent by a combined six points will hopefully work in our favor. Would we be more attractive as a 9-2 team? On the surface, yes, but what if those two additional wins were against an NEC and PFL team? AFCA and Stats polls are used. We are currently 25th in AFCA and 30th in Stats. Need to be top 25 in both after this weekend and ahead of other bubble teams for that final spot. Lastly, "eligibility and availability" of players is interesting. Let's hope we see both Sluka and Dobbs on the field tomorrow and both have big games, showing they would be full-go in the playoffs. -- Still a huge long-shot here, but allow me to convince myself we have a chance.
|
|
|
Post by longsuffering on Nov 17, 2023 10:35:54 GMT -5
Availability and eligibility may help us if Sluka and Dobbs can get on the field tomorrow. Some of our competitors should have injuries to key players (it's a contact sport) and some may have eligibility/disciplinary issues that HC doesn't have.
|
|
|
Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 18, 2023 10:46:09 GMT -5
Herder has posted his latest projected bracket herosports.com/fcs-football-2023-playoff-predictions-5-bzbz/He has Lafayette playing Nicholls State with winner getting #5 Delaware and Villanova playing Duquesne with winner getting #8 Albany. Obviously, that Lafayette game exceeds the preferrred 400 mile limitation and would be a flight. No idea what he thinks if HC sneaks in. So if Sam’s inclination is right (this is what he thinks the committee will do, not his opinion) and this is where HC sits heading into this Saturday, you need 6 of the following 9 outcomes to happen. I‘ll rank in 2 categories PLAUSIBLE UPSETS: NDSU WINS AT UNI (NDSU -7.5) SAMFORD WINS at HOME VS UT MARTIN (Samford +6.5) OR CHARLESTON SOUTHERN WINS AT G-WEBB (Char So +14.5) MORGAN STATE WINS AT HOWARD (MSU +7.5) - NC CENTRAL goes to the Celebration Bowl and not an at-large playoff bid) HOUSTON CHRISTIAN WINS at HOME VS UIW (HCU +11) WILLIAM AND MARY WINS AT HOME V RICHMOND (W&M -3.5) ROBERT MORRIS WINS AT HOME V EIU (RMU +10.5) LONG SHOT UPSETS: VMI WINS at HOME V WESTERN CAROLINA (VMI +15.5) MURRAY STATE WINS AT HOME V YSU (Murray +18.5) INDIANA STATE WINS AT SOUTHERN ILL (IN St +24.5) OTHER GAMES TO WATCH AND CONSIDER: ILLINOIS STATE WINS AT UND (IL St +6.5) - This list tells me a 7-4 Illinois State team with a final win at UND would jump a 7-4 HC team but that’s not a given. YALE OVER HARVARD (Yale -2.5) MERRIMACK OVER DUQUESNE (MC -1.5) - both to bolster HC’s win resume and SOS I gave the odds at 10% earlier this week, probably closer to 5%. Put simply, root for one longer shot upset….LEHIGH WINS AT HOME V LAFAYETTE!! Updating with MGM lines to our key games of the day to get a sense of how the odds makers view these matchups. The other big one right now Lehigh +10.5 v Laffy.
|
|
|
Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 18, 2023 14:54:24 GMT -5
Most important bubble game right now - Richmond up 17-10. A Spider win likely slams the at large door shut for HC.
|
|
|
Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 18, 2023 15:00:45 GMT -5
Howard also up 14-0 over Morgan State.
NC Central WILL be in if this holds up at 9-2.
|
|
|
Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 18, 2023 15:25:34 GMT -5
Samford beating Tennessee Martin is a good thing.
But, at this point, this is an exercise in futility.
|
|
|
Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 18, 2023 15:28:51 GMT -5
Richmond 20 W&M 17 4th Q
Spiders inside the W&M 30
|
|
|
Post by cruskater31 on Nov 18, 2023 15:30:54 GMT -5
Spiders score...Murray down 10 at the half vs YSU.
|
|
|
Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 18, 2023 15:32:00 GMT -5
Richmond 20 W&M 17 4th Q Spiders inside the W&M 30 TD Spiders
|
|
|
Post by cruskater31 on Nov 18, 2023 15:34:53 GMT -5
UND with a one point halftime lead over Ill State. Interesting
|
|
|
Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 18, 2023 15:46:13 GMT -5
Looks like with Nova dominating Delaware…best case for Laffy is they get a home game vs Duquesne. More likely they will be traveling to UD if both CAA co-champs Nova and Albany get seeds.
|
|
|
Post by cruskater31 on Nov 18, 2023 15:53:01 GMT -5
Looks like with Nova dominating Delaware…best case for Laffy is they get a home game vs Duquesne. More likely they will be traveling to UD if both CAA co-champs Nova and Albany get seeds. going to be very intriguing to see if Albany gets a seed (especially with how low they have been ranked but I do think they are much better than that). If nothing else they should be hosting next weekend. Duquesne?
|
|
|
Post by hcpride on Nov 18, 2023 15:56:02 GMT -5
Albany has been oddly underrated in the coaches poll. All season long. They’re currently at 23. They just beat Monmouth. And may get a seed. 🤷
|
|
|
Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 18, 2023 15:57:20 GMT -5
It will be a joke if Albany doesn’t get a seed. They beat Villanova head to head (badly) so in effect the number one team out of the CAA.
|
|
|
Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 18, 2023 16:13:37 GMT -5
Richmond holds on 27-26 as does Howard 14-7 over Morgan State. That’s it. Will come a time to reflect and prepare for next season as we figure out 5th year players etc.
|
|
|
Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 18, 2023 16:25:59 GMT -5
Albany has been oddly underrated in the coaches poll. All season long. They’re currently at 23. They just beat Monmouth. And may get a seed. 🤷 Very strange. Coaches poll has been a joke this year.
|
|
|
Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 18, 2023 16:32:09 GMT -5
I have the 8 seeds right now as: Top 3 - SDSU, Montana, USD Next 2 - Idaho (needs a convincing win today), Furman (even after a bad loss to Wofford today. Stating QB didn’t play so his status for playoffs might matter. Final 3 - Austin Peay (if they hold off UCA), Albany, Villanova
|
|
|
Post by cruskater31 on Nov 18, 2023 16:35:52 GMT -5
Brawl of the Wild is shocking. Expected a close game. 30-7 Grizz entering the 4th
|
|