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Post by alum on Nov 19, 2023 4:50:48 GMT -5
We’ve come a long way when 7-4 is a disappointing season. When you are preseason number 5 team in the nation and don't make the playoffs, it is a disappointment. I was unaware of that.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Nov 19, 2023 5:30:11 GMT -5
me neither.
To the seniors/5th year guys: if the season is indeed over, thank you all so much for all of your efforts/success. It's been so much fun watching you guys perform. You have left your mark.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 19, 2023 7:18:05 GMT -5
Here’s what I have right now. 26 teams in contention. Final 2 will be very disappointed. Top 8 - above w/ NDSU right there at 8-3 (in control v UNI at half 27-10). I would be surprised if the sneak in ahead of APSU or if Idaho gets upset tonight. AQ bids not in Top 8 Gardner Webb Nicholls Duquesne Lafayette Drake That’s 13 total. At large bids not in Top 8 NDSU (lock) Montana St (lock) Mercer (lock) UND (lock) Youngstown State (lock) NC Central (lock) Delaware (lock) Final 6 on bubble competing for last 4 spots: Southern Illinois Chattanooga UC Davis Richmond UIW Sac State Outside bubble looking in: Eastern Illinois UT Martin Western Carolina Holy Cross (I think we are right there with those 6 teams on the bubble and likely in at 8-3 if we knock off BC or Army) Central Arkansas I’m not so sure I’d say the 7-4 Valley teams you have listed here are locks, particularly Youngstown. They’re close to the bubble than you’d think. I think going 5-3 in the Valley carries weight, but I just don’t know if I’d be comfortable saying they’re locks. NC Central is probably on the right side of the bubble, but don’t believe they’re a sure thing. Look at their schedule and wins closer. Non-D1 win over Winston Salem State, bad loss to Howard, and exactly one win over a team with a winning record (Elon). I would say SIU is a lock, Youngstown maybe not. NC Central is definitely getting in IMO.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 19, 2023 7:23:56 GMT -5
We’ve come a long way when 7-4 is a disappointing season. When you are preseason number 5 team in the nation and don't make the playoffs, it is a disappointment. The overall finish is a disappointment (assuming no miracle playoff berth) but the team's performance wasn't a disappointment if that makes sense. In 2022, we were extremely fortunate when it came to staying healthy, minus losing Dobbs. And last year could've ended up the same way as this season without the Sluka-to-Coker Hail Mary against Buffalo, the 4th and 16 TD completion at Lafayette and the Philly Special 2pt conversion in OT against Fordham. Instead of 11-0 and a seed, we'd have been 8-3 with our best win being Yale, who was Ivy standalone champ but not in the Top 25.
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Post by thecrossisback on Nov 19, 2023 7:51:23 GMT -5
We’ve come a long way when 7-4 is a disappointing season. When you are preseason number 5 team in the nation and don't make the playoffs, it is a disappointment. You did not even watch one game. 7-4 with all kinds of injuries 2 FBS games. Yeah we should listen to your opinion. Your photography this season was a disappointment. Go tell that to Jacob Dobbs face or Jordan Fuller's or Matt Sluka's.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 19, 2023 8:13:59 GMT -5
Pile on Foley all you want, but he's not wrong.
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Post by drjack on Nov 19, 2023 8:28:51 GMT -5
Pile on Foley all you want, but he's not wrong. He's not wrong, but he still brings as much value here as a three legged race horse.
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Post by midwestsader05 on Nov 19, 2023 8:29:11 GMT -5
I’m not so sure I’d say the 7-4 Valley teams you have listed here are locks, particularly Youngstown. They’re close to the bubble than you’d think. I think going 5-3 in the Valley carries weight, but I just don’t know if I’d be comfortable saying they’re locks. NC Central is probably on the right side of the bubble, but don’t believe they’re a sure thing. Look at their schedule and wins closer. Non-D1 win over Winston Salem State, bad loss to Howard, and exactly one win over a team with a winning record (Elon). I would say SIU is a lock, Youngstown maybe not. NC Central is definitely getting in IMO. Personally, I just think it would be dumb for the committee to give SIU a berth and leave Youngstown home when YSU destroyed them head to head and finished ahead in conference. Yes SIU had 2 good wins to start the year. Perhaps I’m projecting but getting boat raced 31-3 should count for something. I think they both get in and MVC ends up with 5 total.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Nov 19, 2023 8:30:55 GMT -5
Pile on Foley all you want, but he's not wrong. He's not wrong, but he still brings as much value here as a three legged race horse. Or a 1 armed paper hanger
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 19, 2023 8:34:30 GMT -5
I would say SIU is a lock, Youngstown maybe not. NC Central is definitely getting in IMO. Personally, I just think it would be dumb for the committee to give SIU a berth and leave Youngstown home when YSU destroyed them head to head and finished ahead in conference. Yes SIU had 2 good wins to start the year. Perhaps I’m projecting but getting boat raced 31-3 should count for something. I think they both get in and MVC ends up with 5 total. That's probably what will happen...
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 19, 2023 8:42:59 GMT -5
I'll be busier than a one armed paperhanger between noon and 1pm. MBB at noon, FCS Selection Show at 12:30, WBB at 1pm.
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Post by deep Purple on Nov 19, 2023 8:43:11 GMT -5
I’m not so sure I’d say the 7-4 Valley teams you have listed here are locks, particularly Youngstown. They’re close to the bubble than you’d think. I think going 5-3 in the Valley carries weight, but I just don’t know if I’d be comfortable saying they’re locks. NC Central is probably on the right side of the bubble, but don’t believe they’re a sure thing. Look at their schedule and wins closer. Non-D1 win over Winston Salem State, bad loss to Howard, and exactly one win over a team with a winning record (Elon). I would say SIU is a lock, Youngstown maybe not. NC Central is definitely getting in IMO. Southern Illinois had a nice 14-11 win over a poor fbs Northern Illinois team, but they also had four losses to fcs opponents. They got blown out by Youngstown State and North Dakota state. If you're getting blown out by fcs teams you shouldn't be a lock. NC Central plays in a bad conference. They got blown out by a sub-mediocre Howard team. Howard won their conference at 6-5 and lost to Harvard 48-7.
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 19, 2023 8:52:20 GMT -5
Holy Cross appears to have the best league record of all the 7-4 teams with no losses to any OOC tomato cans. I'm not writing the Crusaders off until the show is over. We have to be the only five-peat team on the bubble.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 19, 2023 9:43:17 GMT -5
I’m not so sure I’d say the 7-4 Valley teams you have listed here are locks, particularly Youngstown. They’re close to the bubble than you’d think. I think going 5-3 in the Valley carries weight, but I just don’t know if I’d be comfortable saying they’re locks. NC Central is probably on the right side of the bubble, but don’t believe they’re a sure thing. Look at their schedule and wins closer. Non-D1 win over Winston Salem State, bad loss to Howard, and exactly one win over a team with a winning record (Elon). I would say SIU is a lock, Youngstown maybe not. NC Central is definitely getting in IMO. I'd put NC Central on the right side of the bubble, but it's not a definite. They're SOS is a paltry 96 of 128. I do think we will see something similar with what the committee did with FAMU a few years ago. They were 9-2 out of the SWAC, who beat up on a non-D1 and fellow SWAC teams throughout the season. They ended up getting housed by SELA in the first round. What NC Central does have going for it, despite a really bad SOS, are two CAA wins. Their win over Elon looks decent (although it's their ONLY win against a team that finished above .500 this season). Campbell is also an okay win.
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Post by cruskater31 on Nov 19, 2023 9:59:18 GMT -5
Holy Cross appears to have the best league record of all the 7-4 teams with no losses to any OOC tomato cans. I'm not writing the Crusaders off until the show is over. We have to be the only five-peat team on the bubble. we are 7-2 vs FCS. There are a few teams in front of us that have 3 FCS losses. That does bother me. We do have a much much better SoS than NC Central and others. Akin to a Valley or Sky strength of schedule. And another thing that "grinds my gears" the polls won't be out until tomorrow, right? There is a shot that Yale gets RV/25 which would give us a ranked win and 7-2 but right now as of the selection show we don't have that
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Post by ndgradbuthcfan on Nov 19, 2023 9:59:21 GMT -5
Pile on Foley all you want, but he's not wrong. The piling on refers to his mean-spirit overstating of the obvious, not to the accuracy of his statement.
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Post by cruskater31 on Nov 19, 2023 10:02:29 GMT -5
UNH had a showing in the top 25 early and got knocked out of the playoff race early
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 19, 2023 10:07:15 GMT -5
Holy Cross and UNH had kind of similar seasons when you really look at it. The Towson lost kind of destroyed any hope for the Wildcats.
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Post by newfieguy74 on Nov 19, 2023 10:16:28 GMT -5
Holy Cross appears to have the best league record of all the 7-4 teams with no losses to any OOC tomato cans. I'm not writing the Crusaders off until the show is over. We have to be the only five-peat team on the bubble. Brian McLaughlin explains in depth why a number of 7-4 teams will get in ahead of HC. Simply stated, they have signature wins. I think we have no chance but I'm often wrong.
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Post by efg72 on Nov 19, 2023 10:24:53 GMT -5
Although still a long shot, perhaps in the neighborhood of Jerry West hitting a 3/4 court shot, but if a decision today has a purple glow it just might be that SOS was a factor- compared to many other bubble teams we are better in that category
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 19, 2023 10:26:51 GMT -5
A little less than 2.5 hours away from the brackets being revealed. Here's my guess at what it might look like --
Auto-Bids: Montana, Gardner-Webb, Villanova, South Dakota State, Duquesne, Lafayette, Drake, Furman, Nicholls, Austin Peay
At-Larges: Idaho, Montana State, Sacramento State, UC Davis, Albany, Delaware, NC Central, South Dakota, North Dakota, North Dakota State, Youngstown State, Mercer, Western Carolina, Holy Cross
NOTES:
- I just assumed Richmond at 8-3 (7-1) was a virtual lock for an at-large coming out of the CAA. Not sure that's the case. Bad losses to Morgan State and Hampton. They also had a VERY easy CAA schedule this year, avoiding Albany, Villanova, and Delaware. Their SOS is 79th. They're going to be one of the last two in / first two out, IMO.
- Sac State is an interesting study. They were top ten most of the season, but fell off recently, losing three of five to end the season. I'm not sure how the committee could put Sac State in and leave UC Davis out, given that Davis just beat Sac State yesterday and has a better record in conference (5-3 v. 4-4). They do own a P5 win against Stanford and the Big Sky is a top two conference, so think the committee takes four at-larges from the Big Sky.
- Southern Illinois on the outside looking in. 4-4 in the Valley with their only four wins coming against the bottom four teams, who have a combined record of 7-37. Salukis started off hot with wins over Austin Peay and Northern Illinois, but I think they narrowly miss.
- Don't believe the SoCon gets three at-larges. Given WCU beat Chattanooga, I'm giving the edge to the Cats. Both teams have bad losses (WCU losing to VMI yesterday and Chattanooga losing to North Alabama early in the season).
- Holy Cross....hand up, total homer pick. Just a weird feeling that our guys sneak in. I really think the committee is going to look favorably on the Army and Boston College results and give us more credit than other 8-3 / 7-4 teams who have played a much weaker schedule.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 19, 2023 10:28:55 GMT -5
Although still a long shot, perhaps in the neighborhood of Jerry West hitting a 3/4 court shot, but if a decision today has a purple glow it just might be that SOS was a factor- compared to many other bubble teams we are better in that category My thought, too. Problem is every 7-4 or better team from the Valley or Sky has a better SOS. We actually have a better chance, albeit still slim, than I initially thought.
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Post by hcpride on Nov 19, 2023 10:33:49 GMT -5
Holy Cross and UNH had kind of similar seasons when you really look at it. The Towson lost kind of destroyed any hope for the Wildcats. Too many (pretty close) losses to pretty good teams and the wild 54-51 OT loss to a poor team (Towson) really was UNH's downfall. Unlike HC they did have a quality win (Albany) but that is kinda lost in the sauce amongst all the losses. Like HC (and unlike Fordham) they finished on a pretty good note.
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Post by gks on Nov 19, 2023 10:38:01 GMT -5
The fact that some on this board don't want to acknowledge is that if HC had the same everything but was a member of the CAA there'd be serious consideration for a spot. The PL is an athletic anchor. It's sad that it basically has to be a miracle for a second team to get a spot in the playoffs.
IMO, I think HC will get passed by today. The Harvard loss will do them in. I hope I'm wrong.
Was this year a disappointment? I'm not going that far. A lot of breaks HC was getting the past few years didn't do their way this season. I consider this one of the staff's best coaching jobs.
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Post by efg72 on Nov 19, 2023 11:46:02 GMT -5
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