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Post by Non Alum Dave on Apr 1, 2017 7:09:37 GMT -5
3,791 - the number of minutes played last year by our seniors 4,506 - the number of career minutes from our returning scholarship players A year from now we will be looking at (assuming no unexpected departures): 0 - number of minutes lost by departing seniors 16,506 - number of career minutes from returning players (assuming approximately 12,000 minutes of playing time) Whatever ups and downs next year may bring, we should be in MUCH better shape for the following year. If not, we have a problem. Yes, I'm bored, waiting for this rain/sleet/snow to end.
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Post by DiMarz on Apr 1, 2017 7:44:18 GMT -5
How many minutes will next years freshmen total? I think that is the big question on everybody's mind.....
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Post by WorcesterGray on Apr 1, 2017 8:17:27 GMT -5
To put NAD's #s into per game context . . . the returning players + frosh need to replace 110-115 minutes per game. KC and PB, at 30mpg each, are nearly maxed out - JF might be worth another 10-15. One would have to be extremely optimistic to think that the rest of the returnees (MZ, MP, CLS, JS) can add more than 10mpg each. So that leaves about 50-60 mpg minimum for the freshmen - lots of OJT.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Apr 1, 2017 8:23:31 GMT -5
Figuring 6,600 minutes of playing time (200 x 33 games) as a base I figure maybe 2,500 for the freshmen. PB at 30 minutes per game and KC at 32 seem the easiest to project to me, then I'll put JF in for 24. That's about 2,800 of the 6,600 minutes leaving 3,800 for MZ, CLS, JS, MP and the 6 freshmen. Of the freshmen, if I were forced to bet I'd bet on AB and MF getting substantial minutes per game.
note: although we posted six minutes apart, I did not see Woo's post before posting mine
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Post by hc6774 on Apr 1, 2017 8:28:16 GMT -5
How many minutes will next years freshmen total? I think that is the big question on everybody's mind..... Since the frosh will be 46% of the roster, I say a lot. My guess is that at least 40% of the minutes [2 ftp] will go to frosh Other questions might be what will be/should be the ratio frosh v returnees; in the ooc [40% of schedule] v the pl.
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Post by purplehaze on Apr 1, 2017 10:20:25 GMT -5
I consider myself as big a fan as any here, but this thread seems like an april fools joke. it's 7 1/2 months to the first game, the best players will be playing the majority of minutes. period ! as NAD referred to above, yday was a day for random musings, the sun will come out tmro and let's not micro-analyze such a topic, and leave the minutes on the court to the coaches
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Apr 1, 2017 10:29:20 GMT -5
Some of us enjoy this type of speculation and approach it in a spirit of optimism. I don't see that as a joke at all. If you're a HC basketball fan do you just want to go on hiatus until the Fall?
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Apr 1, 2017 11:56:14 GMT -5
Wasn't meant as a joke at all.......sure, next season is a long way away, but a little banter about it now isn't harmful, I don't think. What will things be like in July, when we normally would be focusing on rising seniors playing at AAU tournaments?
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Post by dadominate on Apr 1, 2017 12:56:58 GMT -5
i'm going to go on record right now and predict that despite losing so many minutes, we will probably have a similar record as we did this year. and a better postseason.
i think we've got a strong crop of freshmen, all of whom were recruited to play in this system. several of whom will likely get minutes right from the start. i will guarantee that we will have more efficiency at the point guard position next year. benzan was superior last year in almost every quantifiable and non-quantifiable dimension and will thrive with more minutes and experience. i'm not quite as certain about this next point, but i am also hopeful that floyd will take some steps forward to provide the consistency we did not have at the center spot last year. he can do some things that few other players in the pl can do. he needs to work on his basketball skills and curtail his tendency towards fouls. imo, floyd is probably the biggest x factor for next year's success.
it's a fair assessment to say that some of our seniors just were not consistent and others not good fits with carmody's system and style. that's the kindest way i can say it... as the "fit" could certainly be explained in different terms.
we will be better next year than would most teams losing so many minutes. mark my words!
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Apr 1, 2017 13:10:49 GMT -5
I love Dave's purple Kool-Aid
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Apr 1, 2017 15:11:12 GMT -5
I love Dave's  purple Kool-Aid KY, I originally broke that out a few years ago when a former(?) poster assigned me to the "cheerleaders" camp. Cute little guy. "Oh Yeah!"
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Post by possum on Apr 1, 2017 15:32:50 GMT -5
In order to come close to having the same record next season two of the frosh are going to have to be impact players and the others will have to provide a lot of quality minutes. I'm not as high as some on the board are on the returning core players. I think PB will continue to be a steady performer but hope that Green will take over as the primary point guard during the season as we desperately need some outside shooting from that position. KC is a decent player but I don't think he's the all league type player that some posters think. I'm not really high on JF either while he is very athletic he's a misfit in this system with virtually no offensive skills. I think the biggest question going into next season is whether we can expect the frosh to play anywhere near the defense that the graduating seniors played. For all their warts and inconsistencies on offense they played Carmody's defense very well.
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Post by ncaam on Apr 1, 2017 15:41:31 GMT -5
I think we may be much worse than last year. I love PB, but AT was our best ball handler and defender. We are going to miss his 35 mpg more than anyone's except maybe MA. In order for PB to be as effective as last year he is going to need immediate help from CG with breaking the press which we almost surely will face from the jump. I think the x-factor will be MP. I'm hoping the talk of his getting a red shirt year is borne of what the coaches have seen of him in limited practice. He is long for a 6'3 guy. Could he be another EG? I hope so. I just don't see JS contributing as a soph. I see him more like MH who did not contribute till jr year. KC really needs to work on his wing defense. Teams obliterated us shooting over him. And the touch fouls, MUST GO. He has to play 35 minutes too. Which all means the incoming bigs MUST contribute right away because JF is often lost on offense and his defense is only blocking a shot now and again. A big needs to put his chest in the way of the other teams' big man shoulder. A lineup of PB, CLS, MZ, KC and JF is perhaps the weakest lineup since the non-schollie days.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Apr 1, 2017 20:07:07 GMT -5
I don't think you have the 5 leading (I.e. getting the most playing time) players correct......
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Post by A Clock Tower Purple on Apr 1, 2017 20:46:02 GMT -5
I don't think you have the 5 leading (I.e. getting the most playing time) players correct...... No surprise given who stated it.
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Post by crosspride on Apr 1, 2017 22:13:42 GMT -5
It's fun to get excited about a freshman class of 6, but at this point we'll just have to cross our fingers that next year's class is a strong one. These highlight videos are great, but a highlight tape is a highlight tape, and they only show one side of the ball. Also, based on results to date, seems pretty clear that Carmody is a weaker recruiter than Brown was. That could change with this class...we'll see.
Also, if PB was superior to AT in every way last year, why did Carmody play AT 35 mpg and have him run the point when both he and PB were in together? Seems to me that Carmody didn't agree with that.
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Post by hchoops on Apr 1, 2017 22:42:33 GMT -5
It's fun to get excited about a freshman class of 6, but at this point we'll just have to cross our fingers that next year's class is a strong one. These highlight videos are great, but a highlight tape is a highlight tape, and they only show one side of the ball. True that tapes focus predominantly on offense, but the Butler tapes show very quick hands and feet on defense, resulting in steals, as does the Green tape, though not as frequent as Butler's. Also Faw's and Niego's tapes do show some athletic blocks.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Apr 1, 2017 22:43:30 GMT -5
It really is too soon to make firm judgments on Coach Carmody's recruiting, isn't it? We've been through this before.
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Apr 2, 2017 7:23:15 GMT -5
I realize now my thread title was misleading. As much as I hope Dado's bold prediction for next year comes true, I was mainly trying to point out how much better shape we should be in a year from now (when we start looking to 2018-19). For next year, I'm really interested at seeing what the team looks like on 3/1/18, vs. 12/1/17.
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Post by ncaam on Apr 2, 2017 7:40:43 GMT -5
Are you writing off next year already?
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Apr 2, 2017 7:44:16 GMT -5
I am not writing it off; however, my expectations are not high, due to the youth of the roster. I intend to be there supporting them like every other year.
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Post by possum on Apr 2, 2017 10:04:50 GMT -5
Agree with NAD by 3/1/18 we will have a pretty good idea in which direction the program is headed.
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Post by hc6774 on Apr 2, 2017 11:57:56 GMT -5
Agree with NAD by 3/1/18 we will have a pretty good idea in which direction the program is headed. but like the proverbial aircraft carrier... perhaps difficult to turn around if needed
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Post by lou on Apr 2, 2017 12:27:01 GMT -5
Agree with NAD by 3/1/18 we will have a pretty good idea in which direction the program is headed. but like the proverbial aircraft carrier... perhaps difficult to turn around if needed I had a pretty good idea in March of 2016
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Post by dadominate on Apr 2, 2017 12:57:06 GMT -5
It's fun to get excited about a freshman class of 6, but at this point we'll just have to cross our fingers that next year's class is a strong one. These highlight videos are great, but a highlight tape is a highlight tape, and they only show one side of the ball. Also, based on results to date, seems pretty clear that Carmody is a weaker recruiter than Brown was. That could change with this class...we'll see. Also, if PB was superior to AT in every way last year, why did Carmody play AT 35 mpg and have him run the point when both he and PB were in together? Seems to me that Carmody didn't agree with that. 1.) it is a fallacy to say that at ran the point and pb did not when on the court together. they both brought the ball up the court when together depending upon the situation. and while our transition offense was limited, pb was superior as he was much more under control to the basket and was an infinitely better finisher. 2.) plus, while i'm not accusing you of this, a few other posters (the usual suspects) are very quick to point out a seemingly endless list of faults of carmody on one hand... and then on the other hand, they then go on to say that at was productive in his minutes because carmody (the same guy they criticize in every other way) played him?!? that doesn't compute. personally, i don't think carmody used the minutes very well at all. it has been my biggest criticism of him over the past two years. husek and floyd, while both frustrating, seemed to have incredibly short leashes. at could force his patented out of control "drive and swat", brick a 3, and hang his head moping and still never leave the floor. ziggy, lesann, floyd, husek, etc. seemed to be yanked the first second they made a mistake. it cannot be denied that at was the statistically worst player in the pl in 2015-2016 and very close to the worst last year. the claim that he was a great defensive player is also grossly exaggerated and not supported by any statistical measures, other than steals... which are as much a function of carmody's defensive style. i thought at was pretty good at the top of the 1-3-1 harassing the ball, but shooting over him was like shooting over a tree stump and he was an extreme liability in any other defense once the ball was inside the three point line. there are so many flaws in 70's post i don't know where to begin. i don't think there is any reason to think teams are going to press us next year. why would a team that doesn't press go out of it's way to do so next year? because of this view (limited to crossports) that at was great against the press and we would collectively roll over and die without him? did you not see the monmouth game?!? and while i'm excited to see what mp can do, how on earth is this guy the x factor, other than the fact he is the lone mb recruit? he has been hurt almost since day 1, and most importantly, we already have a strong wing in karl charles and a number of promising freshmen at the position. i hope mp does well and think he could contribute, but the x factor is going to be the center position. we need somebody to step up there. i hope it is floyd as he has potential, but it's going to have to be somebody. stevens? that is a big question mark for us. at the end of the day, i think we will struggle next year - just as we struggled this year, even with so many senior minutes... which is my point - but i think we will start to put it together by the end of next year. i could be wrong, but i see us hovering around .500 next year just as we did this year. our seniors were inconsistent and not overwhelmingly talented, which along with champion's injury, explains a disappointing season and first round pl tournament loss. i wouldn't be surprised if we win a pl tournament game next year and set the wheels in motion for a strong 2018-2019 season.
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