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Post by Tom on Jul 13, 2017 7:48:33 GMT -5
I will be the first to admit that I am biased against freshmen. No matter what the hype, I have low expectations. No matter how good the high school or prep school, it's not D-I ball. Two years ago, I was pleasantly surprised by Zignoski and ecstatic with Charles. That does not mean I think these guys will be stiffs. Look at Pat Benzan who had a big sophomore year after a fairly unremarkable freshman year Based on that frame of reference, sure we might get a kid to score 10 a game, especially if pressed into big minutes. According to Worcester Gray, having two guys do it (or combine for 20) has happened three times in the last 25 years - and one of those duos were scholarship kids in a non scholarship league. Not the best odds to be hanging the hopes of the season on. With such a green team, things should get better as the season progresses, but I'm not seeing a lot of OOC games where HC will be favored I believe that it may be too narrow to limit the thinking to only two freshmen when there is a chance, possibly good chance, that three, four or even more freshmen will receive big minutes, shots and thus hopefully points. There is no precedent for an HC team to bring in 6 freshmen when only 3 returning players gave us significant minutes. I guess a few decades of being a pre-2004 Red Sox fan have turned me into a sports pessimist. Yes, there will be more than 2 kids getting very significant minutes. I threw out two as a number because we have had some rare instances of 2 freshmen coming in together and being ready for D-I ball from the get-go. If two classmates that mature are a rarity, three plus would be a stretch. In the last three years, LeSann, Zignorski, and Hahn have been a game MVP as a freshmen. They also had games where they were limited to cameos because they weren't getting it done. Not a knock on any of the three, just a case that most freshmen at this level aren't that consistent. On the down nights there were plenty of upperclassmen to pick up the slack. Especially Hahn and Zignorski were important parts of the rotation as freshmen and big assets to the team. But to need two or three freshmen to step up every night just seems to be asking an awful lot. Even an unusually consistent guy like Charles had his off nights. We're putting a lot of expectations on a group of kids who have never played a minute of college ball. Disclaimer: Even though I'm coming across as totally negative and think there will be serious growing pains, I will still be at a bunch of games supporting our Crusaders
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Post by hchoops on Jul 13, 2017 7:56:20 GMT -5
You are covered both ways Either "I told you so" Or "I am so happy I was wrong "
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Post by rickii on Jul 13, 2017 8:47:35 GMT -5
I will be the first to admit that I am biased against freshmen. No matter what the hype, I have low expectations. No matter how good the high school or prep school, it's not D-I ball. Two years ago, I was pleasantly surprised by Zignoski and ecstatic with Charles. That does not mean I think these guys will be stiffs. Look at Pat Benzan who had a big sophomore year after a fairly unremarkable freshman year Based on that frame of reference, sure we might get a kid to score 10 a game, especially if pressed into big minutes. According to Worcester Gray, having two guys do it (or combine for 20) has happened three times in the last 25 years - and one of those duos were scholarship kids in a non scholarship league. Not the best odds to be hanging the hopes of the season on. With such a green team, things should get better as the season progresses, but I'm not seeing a lot of OOC games where HC will be favored I believe that it may be too narrow to limit the thinking to only two freshmen when there is a chance, possibly good chance, that three, four or even more freshmen will receive big minutes, shots and thus hopefully points. There is no precedent for an HC team to bring in 6 freshmen when only 3 returning players gave us significant minutes. You're a much better evaluator of talent than I am so I'm looking for some guidance from you on the frosh versus the returnees behind Benzan and Charles....
By 'big minutes' from let's say 4 frosh are you guessing these pups are better overall than Floyd, LeSann and Zigorski ? To me 'big minutes' means 10+ per game minimum....consistently. If we assume/anticipate that Charles and Benzan will consistently get 20+ per game, that seems to give us a 'core' 6 per game with Floyd, LeSann and Zigorski in reserve/as needed bench players.
I'm assuming you agree that Perkins is a wild card in this 'plan'. It would be HUGE if he can make it back as a productive asset in a top 6 or 7 role.
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Post by hchoops on Jul 13, 2017 8:54:31 GMT -5
I am guessing since I have not seen any of the frosh play, but I believe that some of them will get more minutes than Ziggy or LeSann, but not Floyd, who will get as many minutes as his foul trouble will allow. Perkins' health is the wild card.
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Post by ncaam on Jul 13, 2017 9:06:03 GMT -5
I am guessing to Benzan, Charles and Floyd we will see 3 frosh play a lot....Faw, Copeland and Green. I see CLS and Ziggy fighting for minutes. I fear Stevens and Niego will not play much this year a la Husek...wild cards for me are Perkins and AB. Can Perkins really be expected to come back soon after a couple serious surgeries? I don't know what to expect from a lightly recruited Grandison. Imho
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Post by hc6774 on Jul 13, 2017 9:41:15 GMT -5
I am guessing to Benzan, Charles and Floyd we will see 3 frosh play a lot....Faw, Copeland and Green. I see CLS and Ziggy fighting for minutes. I fear Stevens and Niego will not play much this year a la Husek...wild cards for me are Perkins and AB. Can Perkins really be expected to come back soon after a couple serious surgeries? I don't know what to expect from a lightly recruited Grandison. Imhobut worth an unprecedented 6th schollie after watching him play next to one of our Fab 5 last season...
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jul 13, 2017 10:26:33 GMT -5
I am guessing to Benzan, Charles and Floyd we will see 3 frosh play a lot....Faw, Copeland and Green. I see CLS and Ziggy fighting for minutes. I fear Stevens and Niego will not play much this year a la Husek...wild cards for me are Perkins and AB. Can Perkins really be expected to come back soon after a couple serious surgeries? I don't know what to expect from a lightly recruited Grandison. Imho I don't see AB as a wild card at all. I think he can be a very strong contributor fro the get go. He's a great athlete and a warrior and all indications are that he is an outstanding shooter. I'm not saying he is a sure thing--no one is a sure thing--but I will be surprised if he is not a factor.
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Post by dadominate on Jul 13, 2017 10:41:31 GMT -5
I am guessing to Benzan, Charles and Floyd we will see 3 frosh play a lot....Faw, Copeland and Green. I see CLS and Ziggy fighting for minutes. I fear Stevens and Niego will not play much this year a la Husek...wild cards for me are Perkins and AB. Can Perkins really be expected to come back soon after a couple serious surgeries? I don't know what to expect from a lightly recruited Grandison. Imho I don't see AB as a wild card at all. I think he can be a very strong contributor fro the get go. He's a great athlete and a warrior and all indications are that he is an outstanding shooter. I'm not saying he is a sure thing--no one is a sure thing--but I will be surprised if he is not a factor. agreed. he seems the most college-ready given his developed body, athleticism, and (especially in our system) ability to shoot the basketball.
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Post by hchoops on Jul 13, 2017 11:20:18 GMT -5
AB, CG, MF and JG will play good minutes
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Post by possum on Jul 13, 2017 12:22:44 GMT -5
Hoops is there a reason you don't name Niego in this group, do you know or have you heard something to indicate he may not be ready to contribute right away.
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Post by hchoops on Jul 13, 2017 12:44:46 GMT -5
I have heard the 4 I mentioned, not the other 2.
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Post by ncaam on Jul 20, 2017 8:37:34 GMT -5
My bad, no game with Q this season.
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Post by hcgrad94 on Jul 20, 2017 8:42:18 GMT -5
My bad, no game with Q this season. Their coach wants nothing to do with us. FWIW. IMHO.
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Post by rgs318 on Jul 20, 2017 8:49:36 GMT -5
Sad to hear that...unless it is just because he sees HC as too much of a challenge for him.
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Post by hchoops on Jul 20, 2017 8:52:30 GMT -5
Why would Baker Dunleavy be against HC ?
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Post by hcgrad94 on Jul 20, 2017 9:20:21 GMT -5
Was a joke - referencing a fellow posters subtle dig on HC not wanting to play UVM.
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Post by Ray on Jul 20, 2017 13:43:55 GMT -5
I think there's a big difference/gap between stat production and actually winning. To hoops' point above, the sheer volume of freshman and % of minutes that need to be replaced mean that a couple of the freshmen almost have to reach that level of being among the most productive HC frosh in the past 25 years.
But one or a couple of them can rack up pretty decent stats while we're losing by double digits every night. So, I'm with Tom that I have low expectations about this team doing much winning due to the number of newcomers and the roles they need to fill. And I'm also with hoops that a couple of them are going to have pretty decent stat lines just because of the opportunity in front of them.
The likelihood of HC having the Frosh of the Year and three guys on the all-Frosh team at year's end is very high.
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Post by bison137 on Jul 20, 2017 14:22:35 GMT -5
The likelihood of HC having the Frosh of the Year and three guys on the all-Frosh team at year's end is very high. I agree that available playing time is a huge factor for being all-frosh and that HC has a good chance to have a couple guys on it. But having three is a very high hurdle. In fact it's been done only once in the PL's 27 years (Muscala, Willman, Br. Johnson in 2010) - even though there were only eight teams for most of that period. With American and Lehigh having lost a lot of players to both graduation and transfer, they should have a lot of room for frosh as well, although not as much as HC. And Army and Navy, partly due to having players coming off a redshirt year at their prep schools, often have candidates for all-rookie.. I think the the HC rookies will have some competition from at least the following - Alex Petrie, LC PG, who figures to play huge minutes as their starting PG and who looks to be quite talented. - Sam Iorio, AU wing, who is a very good scorer who likely will start and see major minutes. - Walter Whyte, Boston 6-6 forward, who might be the most heavily recruited PL prospect in many years. - Javante McCoy, Boston 6-5 guard, who also had a lot of good offers. - Caleb Bennett, Lehigh 6-5 SG/SF, who also had a lot of good offers. - Any Army/Navy players who emerge. - Marques Wilson, Lehigh SG, who is a bit of an enigma. He might be very good or he might be Devon Carter. Playing time will be a big determinant. I think Bucknell's Jimmy Sotos is one of the league's top five frosh - but playing behind two All-PL guards (Stephen Brown and Kimbal Mackenzie) likely will hold down his playing time. Boston U will also have a fight for playing time now that they have reinstated the two players (Mosely and Barnes) who were suspended for most of last year. Btw, the most talented PL all-rookie team top-to-bottom imo continues to be the 2004 team: Andre Ingram (American); Chris McNaughton (Bucknell); Kendall Chones (Colgate); Keith Simmons (Holy Cross); and Jose Olivero (Lehigh). The 2010 team obviously was the best at the top with McCollum and Muscala, but it was not as good as the 2004 team at the other spots.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Jul 20, 2017 14:57:46 GMT -5
Nice insights
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Post by hchoops on Jul 20, 2017 15:45:12 GMT -5
I think there's a big difference/gap between stat production and actually winning. To hoops' point above, the sheer volume of freshman and % of minutes that need to be replaced mean that a couple of the freshmen almost have to reach that level of being among the most productive HC frosh in the past 25 years. But one or a couple of them can rack up pretty decent stats while we're losing by double digits every night. So, I'm with Tom that I have low expectations about this team doing much winning due to the number of newcomers and the roles they need to fill. And I'm also with hoops that a couple of them are going to have pretty decent stat lines just because of the opportunity in front of them. The likelihood of HC having the Frosh of the Year and three guys on the all-Frosh team at year's end is very high. I believe that at least 4 of the freshmen will play a lot, score and rebound a lot and that we will have as good if not better record than this past season. the ooc season may not be great, though the schedule is easier than last year, but the improvement will show throughout the PL season and the playoffs.
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Post by hc6774 on Jul 20, 2017 19:31:15 GMT -5
I agree with hchoops... a 9 & 9 PL record, same as last season, would be good; 10 wins would be CoY stuff... but would define improvement as 14+ games, scoring 60+pts; it was 10 games last year.
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Post by possum on Jul 20, 2017 20:26:28 GMT -5
I will be thrilled if next years record is as good or better than last year but doubt it will happen. The freshmen will have a huge jump adapting to the next level and a few of them will need to be impact not complimentary players. I feel the biggest regression will be on the defensive end as the frosh cannot be expected to play defense at anywhere near the level of last years senior class. I doubt think that any potential gains on offense will offset the decline in defensive efficiency.
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Post by hchoops on Jul 20, 2017 20:29:10 GMT -5
Disagree The defenses will be simplified and whatever learning curve exists will be negated by improved team quickness and speed
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Post by Ray on Jul 20, 2017 22:31:24 GMT -5
Disagree The defenses will be simplified and whatever learning curve exists will be negated by improved team quickness and speed Improved quickness and speed? I thought my eye test and the metrics showed that just about the only aspect of team defense that HC was any good at last year was deflections/steals. I'm not sure we can actually expect to be better in that area.
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Post by hchoops on Jul 20, 2017 22:37:56 GMT -5
Maybe not, though the emphasis that was placed on deflections/steals by the coaches will remain and we may get to last year's level toward the end of the year. but improved foot quickness and speed will improve the defensive movement for both the 1-3-1 and the match up, including close outs on shooters, which was a weakness last season. I also think we will be an overall stronger defensive rebounding team, a clear weakness last season.
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