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Post by classof83 on Feb 7, 2019 14:47:19 GMT -5
I have to think that "announced attendance" is actually "tickets sold" Right - season tickets are tickets sold. I am guessing they don't actually count the ticket stubs. With the Patriots parade on Tuesday the news outlets were predicting that "authorities" expected there to be a million people lining the parade route. I don't think there was any scientific method how they came up with that number.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 7, 2019 15:25:05 GMT -5
1) I never called him a terrible player, so there's no need to create that straw man. 2) My "conclusion" is that when he shoots too much, the offense (and team) are not as good as when other players are taking those shots.I'll challenge that conclusion. Let's look at the facts. Here are the shooting percentages in Patriot League play 3 Point Percentage
.455 Caleb Green--has really found his stroke in conference play .408 Austin Butler.400 Pat Benzan --has been very selective (smart) going 4 for 10 .379 Jacob Grandison --has been hot and cold, e.g. 6 for 9 as we beat Navy but 2 for 15 in last 3 games. Shows nice improvement over freshman year. .379 Matt Faw 2 Point Percentage
.714 Jehyve Floyd .473 Austin Butler.458 Jacob Grandison .381 Matt Faw .375 Pat Benzan .344 Caleb Green-- as noted in earlier threads, he hitting 2's and missing 3's OOC I don't see any empirical basis for the belief that AB should avoid shooting so that we can get the ball to other players, unless the argument is that no one but JF should attempt a field goal? AB had two horrendous shooting games versus Michigan and Providence and must "own" those games (you are what your record says you are) but he's shooting better than .500 on twos outside of those games and you see his current trends in the PL data above. AB is a good outside shooter and he can score closer in as well. He draws fouls: in the past five games he is 15-20 on free throws while the rest of the team combines for 16-27. I understand having a point of view but at some point shouldn't you bend when the facts contradict you? I don't understand what your "facts" mean. His shooting percentages in games that the team is 4-7 indicate that we're better with him getting more shots? There are 14 games this year when Butler attempted 11 or fewer FGs. HC's record in those games is 10-4. In the other 10 games, HC is 3-7. There are 5 PL games this year when Butler attempted 11 or fewer FGs. HC's record in those games is 3-2. In the other 6 games, HC is 1-5. Below is a summary of the correlation between player FG attempts and HC total points over the course of this season: Player | Correl | Green | 0.316 | Grandison | 0.240 | Floyd | 0.009 | Butler | -0.234 |
The numbers suggest that the more Butler shoots, the less HC scores and the less HC wins.
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Post by thecrossisback on Feb 7, 2019 15:26:11 GMT -5
1:06 49 gives you a crowd shot. I am sure there are others to. Interesting Carmody's interview at the end up about having to change things because he is getting paid.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 7, 2019 15:36:59 GMT -5
Bring Back, are you suggesting that in our loss to BU, for instance, where Butler was 5-12 2PT FG, 2-5 3PT FG and 6-7 FT (22 points), he was more to blame for the loss than Green and Grandison, who combined to shoot 0-5 2PT FG and 4-13 3PT FG?
What about the game at Bucknell where Butler was 4-8 2PT FG, 3-6 3PT FG for 17 points? Green and Grandison were a combined 2-8 2PT FG and 3-10 3PT FG.
I could play around with these statistics all day, and could probably figure out a way to show that when Grandison shoots more than ten times, we lose.
I don't mean to pick on Green and Grandison because I think they are two of our best players, but Butler has been better -- in my mind -- during the 11 PL games than they have been.
It's really foolish to select one metric (Butler's FGA) as a reason why we are losing. We are losing because we don't rebound on either end of the floor, don't get to the free throw line (when we do we miss too many free throws), and play poor defense.
Be better tomorrow, please.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 7, 2019 16:17:21 GMT -5
Bring Back, are you suggesting that in our loss to BU, for instance, where Butler was 5-12 2PT FG, 2-5 3PT FG and 6-7 FT (22 points), he was more to blame for the loss than Green and Grandison, who combined to shoot 0-5 2PT FG and 4-13 3PT FG? What about the game at Bucknell where Butler was 4-8 2PT FG, 3-6 3PT FG for 17 points? Green and Grandison were a combined 2-8 2PT FG and 3-10 3PT FG. I could play around with these statistics all day, and could probably figure out a way to show that when Grandison shoots more than ten times, we lose. I don't mean to pick on Green and Grandison because I think they are two of our best players, but Butler has been better -- in my mind -- during the 11 PL games than they have been. It's really foolish to select one metric (Butler's FGA) as a reason why we are losing. We are losing because we don't rebound on either end of the floor, don't get to the free throw line (when we do we miss too many free throws), and play poor defense. Be better tomorrow, please. My point is that Butler should not be getting all of the shots that he's taking. The team would be a lot better if the offense was producing shots for Grandison, Green, and Floyd. The team would be better off if Butler wasn't taking forced 3-point attempts or catching the ball in the corner and driving until he runs into someone. In those two games you cherry picked, Butler attempted 31 FGs, versus a combined 36 for Green and Grandison. That is insanity. Regarding your sill straw man, I NEVAH SAID DAT!!! This was not a discussion about all of the problems that exist with the team, but rather just about that based on the data, the more shots Butler takes, the worse off the offense is. But on the topic of why the team is losing: 1A) Defense 1B) Rebounding 3) An offense that does not consistently get the ball to our best offensive players (Green, Grandison, Floyd) in positions where they are at their best.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Feb 7, 2019 16:32:39 GMT -5
Bring Back, are you suggesting that in our loss to BU, for instance, where Butler was 5-12 2PT FG, 2-5 3PT FG and 6-7 FT (22 points), he was more to blame for the loss than Green and Grandison, who combined to shoot 0-5 2PT FG and 4-13 3PT FG? What about the game at Bucknell where Butler was 4-8 2PT FG, 3-6 3PT FG for 17 points? Green and Grandison were a combined 2-8 2PT FG and 3-10 3PT FG. I could play around with these statistics all day, and could probably figure out a way to show that when Grandison shoots more than ten times, we lose. I don't mean to pick on Green and Grandison because I think they are two of our best players, but Butler has been better -- in my mind -- during the 11 PL games than they have been. It's really foolish to select one metric (Butler's FGA) as a reason why we are losing. We are losing because we don't rebound on either end of the floor, don't get to the free throw line (when we do we miss too many free throws), and play poor defense. Be better tomorrow, please. My point is that Butler should not be getting all of the shots that he's taking. Effective FG% in PL games: Butler: 52.8% Grandison: 52.1% Green: 48.5% Just the facts.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 7, 2019 16:43:00 GMT -5
Bring Back, are you suggesting that in our loss to BU, for instance, where Butler was 5-12 2PT FG, 2-5 3PT FG and 6-7 FT (22 points), he was more to blame for the loss than Green and Grandison, who combined to shoot 0-5 2PT FG and 4-13 3PT FG? What about the game at Bucknell where Butler was 4-8 2PT FG, 3-6 3PT FG for 17 points? Green and Grandison were a combined 2-8 2PT FG and 3-10 3PT FG. I could play around with these statistics all day, and could probably figure out a way to show that when Grandison shoots more than ten times, we lose. I don't mean to pick on Green and Grandison because I think they are two of our best players, but Butler has been better -- in my mind -- during the 11 PL games than they have been. It's really foolish to select one metric (Butler's FGA) as a reason why we are losing. We are losing because we don't rebound on either end of the floor, don't get to the free throw line (when we do we miss too many free throws), and play poor defense. Be better tomorrow, please. My point is that Butler should not be getting all of the shots that he's taking. The team would be a lot better if the offense was producing shots for Grandison, Green, and Floyd. The team would be better off if Butler wasn't taking forced 3-point attempts or catching the ball in the corner and driving until he runs into someone. In those two games you cherry picked, Butler attempted 31 FGs, versus a combined 36 for Green and Grandison. That is insanity. Regarding your sill straw man, I NEVAH SAID DAT!!! This was not a discussion about all of the problems that exist with the team, but rather just about that based on the data, the more shots Butler takes, the worse off the offense is. But on the topic of why the team is losing: 1A) Defense 1B) Rebounding 3) An offense that does not consistently get the ball to our best offensive players (Green, Grandison, Floyd) in positions where they are at their best. "My point is that Butler should not be getting all of the shots that he's taking." The fact that he has a better shooting percentage than the alternatives (other than JF near the basket) doesn't enter into the equation for you?? It's just too funny, but in an odd way I have to admire your persistence in the face of defeat. You could look at the California Angels roster and stats and, having a pre-conceived narrative to sell, conclude that Mike Trout should be batting 8th and be pinch hit for at every opportunity.
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Post by sader81 on Feb 7, 2019 16:51:22 GMT -5
You can play with stats until the cows come home. If the guys aren’t ready to play or are having an off night shooting, they will probably lose. The one stat I will point is out is that Grandy is currently averaging over 14 a game, AB over 13 a game, and Green over 11. When is that last time HC had three Sophs average in double figures? They played pretty well last night without having a good shooting night. If that continues, they will be in the hunt in March, no matter how you scramble your stats; and if they shoot it they way they are capable, I wouldn’t bet against them.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 7, 2019 16:58:43 GMT -5
My point is that Butler should not be getting all of the shots that he's taking. Effective FG% in PL games: Butler: 52.8% Grandison: 52.1% Green: 48.5% Just the facts. Did you know that HC's PL record is 4-7? Giving the keys of the offense to Butler hurts the team offense. IMHO "team offense" is more important than how one individual player is performing. But perhaps you are more into to the NBA one-on-one dipsydoo dunkaroo "modern" game where it's just about the solo play of individual players. Dunno.
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Post by rgs318 on Feb 7, 2019 17:04:31 GMT -5
You said "perhaps you are more into to the NBA one-on-one dipsydoo dunkaroo "modern" game where it's just about the solo play of individual players."
That is, IMHO, a good example of creating a straw man argument, especially when you are using fictional terms.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 7, 2019 17:20:12 GMT -5
"My point is that Butler should not be getting all of the shots that he's taking." The fact that he has a better shooting percentage than the alternatives (other than JF near the basket) doesn't enter into the equation for you?? It's just too funny, but in an odd way I have to admire your persistence in the face of defeat. You could look at the California Angels roster and stats and, having a pre-conceived narrative to sell, conclude that Mike Trout should be batting 8th and be pinch hit for at every opportunity. The idea that you think "defeat" is one guy's play during a 4-7 stretch for the team is comical. Those purple glasses through which people view Butler really are something else. I wish I had a pair, because it sounds like it would be fun to watch. The bottom line is that I don't think Butler is a top player on a top team, while you and others seem to think he truly has all-league potential for a top team. There is only one way to fully prove that out -- for HC to turn things around in the final 7+ PL games this year. If we do, and Butler is a top player during that run, I will happily eat all of the crow.
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Post by HCFC45 on Feb 7, 2019 17:34:12 GMT -5
Did you ever give any thought to the fact that the team played much better DEFENSE and were much more active on that end than they have been? And, this is what caused Army to play poorly? No, you could not possibly think of that because of your relentless drum beating to spin any success the team has into negative / find faults with anyone on the team starting with the Head Coach! Give it a rest! Must be time to sharpen up your axe, it's getting pretty dull right now! Give it a rest! You are certainly free to believe whatever makes you happy, but it's simply a fact that Army is a lousy offensive team (KenPom ranking 305). If you don't think it's easier to defend a lower quality offense than a higher quality offense, I don't know what to say. Through 11 PL games, HC has played 5 games against teams with an offense ranked 305 or higher, and gone 3-2, while opponents averaged 60 PPG. In the other 6 games against offenses ranked 62-246, HC's record is 1-5 and opponents have averaged 77 PPG. (side note: HC has played the weakest in-conference strength of schedule through 11 games, per KenPom)Until the defense can perform against a good offense, I'm not going to use a one game sample size against the 305th ranked offense to say that Carmody has turned around the defense. Sorrey.Reread what I said.... I never said what you have just said in the bolded/underlined sentence! You totally missed my point/observation that the team played better DEFENSE last night, probably one of their best defensive efforts this year! Hopefully it is something that they as a team can build on! As far as stats go, there are some conclusions that can be drawn from them. You have to remember this is the PL and as I have repeated often "any team can beat any other team on a given night"! I would not be surprised if neither Bucknell nor Lehigh would be the PL BB Champions this year! I will continue to see good in every team win, while you on the other hand, will always spin a W into "the other team is really bad or they really played poorly"! Cheers! !
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Post by hchoops on Feb 7, 2019 17:59:58 GMT -5
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Post by efg72 on Feb 7, 2019 18:08:49 GMT -5
I'll challenge that conclusion. Let's look at the facts. Here are the shooting percentages in Patriot League play 3 Point Percentage
.455 Caleb Green--has really found his stroke in conference play .408 Austin Butler.400 Pat Benzan --has been very selective (smart) going 4 for 10 .379 Jacob Grandison --has been hot and cold, e.g. 6 for 9 as we beat Navy but 2 for 15 in last 3 games. Shows nice improvement over freshman year. .379 Matt Faw 2 Point Percentage
.714 Jehyve Floyd .473 Austin Butler.458 Jacob Grandison .381 Matt Faw .375 Pat Benzan .344 Caleb Green-- as noted in earlier threads, he hitting 2's and missing 3's OOC I don't see any empirical basis for the belief that AB should avoid shooting so that we can get the ball to other players, unless the argument is that no one but JF should attempt a field goal? AB had two horrendous shooting games versus Michigan and Providence and must "own" those games (you are what your record says you are) but he's shooting better than .500 on twos outside of those games and you see his current trends in the PL data above. AB is a good outside shooter and he can score closer in as well. He draws fouls: in the past five games he is 15-20 on free throws while the rest of the team combines for 16-27. I understand having a point of view but at some point shouldn't you bend when the facts contradict you? I don't understand what your "facts" mean. His shooting percentages in games that the team is 4-7 indicate that we're better with him getting more shots? There are 14 games this year when Butler attempted 11 or fewer FGs. HC's record in those games is 10-4. In the other 10 games, HC is 3-7. There are 5 PL games this year when Butler attempted 11 or fewer FGs. HC's record in those games is 3-2. In the other 6 games, HC is 1-5. Below is a summary of the correlation between player FG attempts and HC total points over the course of this season: Player | Correl | Green | 0.316 | Grandison | 0.240 | Floyd | 0.009 | Butler | -0.234 |
The numbers suggest that the more Butler shoots, the less HC scores and the less HC wins. Stats are manipulated every day for both good and bad. Perhaps the team as a team played poorly, players stopped shooting and we weren’t scoring. At some point it is better to use the eye test on all of these kids. Hustle matters, energy created matters— but I look for what players make plays and when do they make them with time and score being critical. if you do that for each of the players receiving time over the entire season, I am willing to bet Butler comes on top, followed by Grandison, Green Floyd, Niego, Faw, Benzan, Copeland, Zignorski in that order.
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Post by possum on Feb 7, 2019 18:49:11 GMT -5
Have to agree with SOV Butler has played pretty well in league play, certainly better and more consistently than Grandison and Green. I haven't looked at stats but it seems that his rebounding numbers are up in league play as well. It's hard to just look at numbers to determine if someone's had a good game, as SOV noted Butler had 22 points against BU but 13 of those came in the last 7 minutes in what was essentially extended garbage time. KY noted in another thread that Kostecka has had 22 or more points in 13 games this year and his team lost 10 of those games and strangely in games he scored less the team has a better record. Unless you've seen the games it's hard to determine whether he's stepping up and scoring more in games his teammates aren't producing or is he just dominating the ball more in his better scoring games.
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Post by trimster on Feb 7, 2019 18:59:21 GMT -5
I don't know how they come up with the number. I have always wondered, however, if they count season ticket holders whether they show up or not. I am almost positive that they do. I wonder how many season ticket holders there are. I doubt there are more than a couple of hundred.
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Post by efg72 on Feb 7, 2019 19:04:04 GMT -5
Have to agree with SOV Butler has played pretty well in league play, certainly better and more consistently than Grandison and Green. I haven't looked at stats but it seems that his rebounding numbers are up in league play as well. It's hard to just look at numbers to determine if someone's had a good game, as SOV noted Butler had 22 points against BU but 13 of those came in the last 7 minutes in what was essentially extended garbage time. KY noted in another thread that Kostecka has had 22 or more points in 13 games this year and his team lost 10 of those games and strangely in games he scored less the team has a better record. Unless you've seen the games it's hard to determine whether he's stepping up and scoring more in games his teammates aren't producing or is he just dominating the ball more in his better scoring games. Film doesn’t lie, stats do-they are in the eyes of the beholder i encourage all of you to go back and watch each game there is a reason Butler received 38 minutes last night
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Post by rgs318 on Feb 7, 2019 19:58:17 GMT -5
That is a powerful quote about HC and about this team (players and coaches) and especially about Head Coach Bill Carmody: ""We're all one, one family, and whatever he has to go through we go through with him," Butler said. "We support him, and we know that even when he's not there with us, we have to play the way he's taught us to play and play Holy Cross basketball. We have his back, and we know he has ours." IMO, that is truly powerful!
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Post by efg72 on Feb 7, 2019 20:19:39 GMT -5
Look this remains a young team that has developing leadership and maturity. We are a low -mid major which means our program demands senior experience and leadership. We all get frustrated, individually we each have players we like or don’t like, and time will sort this out. But one thing is clear there are NO senior Leaders. In other words you are a leader only if others follow
Green defers to Benzan, yet this should be his team. Butler is working at it and perhaps today it really is his team. I have no problem with that because he gives it all and despite the beautiful stats presented by BBC he is the best player we have—Floyd remains by far the best talent.
There are special moments ahead and the next few years will be much improved and most posters will find joy
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Post by Ignutz on Feb 7, 2019 21:05:27 GMT -5
That is a powerful quote about HC and about this team (players and coaches) and especially about Head Coach Bill Carmody: ""We're all one, one family, and whatever he has to go through we go through with him," Butler said. "We support him, and we know that even when he's not there with us, we have to play the way he's taught us to play and play Holy Cross basketball. We have his back, and we know he has ours." IMO, that is truly powerful! Just one more reason for me to love this kid.
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Post by sader81 on Feb 7, 2019 21:16:31 GMT -5
That is a powerful quote about HC and about this team (players and coaches) and especially about Head Coach Bill Carmody: ""We're all one, one family, and whatever he has to go through we go through with him," Butler said. "We support him, and we know that even when he's not there with us, we have to play the way he's taught us to play and play Holy Cross basketball. We have his back, and we know he has ours." IMO, that is truly powerful! I have played, coached and officiated at a high level during my 61+ years, and I’ve seen a lot. We are dealing with mostly 19 and 20 year old kids on this team, all good kids and students from fine families; not hardened inner city, non-students looking for a NBA payday and dream. Before last week, I wondered what happened to this team that played with the top teams in the country and mowed through the OOC schedule. I have no inside knowledge, but am now pretty sure what mainly caused this three week decline In performance. Hopefully it ended last night.
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Post by bringbackcaro on Feb 7, 2019 21:46:54 GMT -5
I don't understand what your "facts" mean. His shooting percentages in games that the team is 4-7 indicate that we're better with him getting more shots? There are 14 games this year when Butler attempted 11 or fewer FGs. HC's record in those games is 10-4. In the other 10 games, HC is 3-7. There are 5 PL games this year when Butler attempted 11 or fewer FGs. HC's record in those games is 3-2. In the other 6 games, HC is 1-5. Below is a summary of the correlation between player FG attempts and HC total points over the course of this season: Player | Correl | Green | 0.316 | Grandison | 0.240 | Floyd | 0.009 | Butler | -0.234 |
The numbers suggest that the more Butler shoots, the less HC scores and the less HC wins. Stats are manipulated every day for both good and bad. Perhaps the team as a team played poorly, players stopped shooting and we weren’t scoring. At some point it is better to use the eye test on all of these kids. Hustle matters, energy created matters— but I look for what players make plays and when do they make them with time and score being critical. I very much agree with this, with one caveat: the plays that an individual allows the opposing team to make on the other end are just as, if not more, critical. When looking at the tape, it’s very important to watch BOTH ends of the floor, which is what I’ve used to develop my opinions on AB. The stats are just meant to back up what I see. As I said before, I will happily eat crow if he plays at an all-league level and we are a top team in the final 7+ games of the season.
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Post by rgs318 on Feb 7, 2019 21:49:01 GMT -5
bbc, your statement is logical and more than fair.
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Post by efg72 on Feb 7, 2019 21:52:40 GMT -5
Stats are manipulated every day for both good and bad. Perhaps the team as a team played poorly, players stopped shooting and we weren’t scoring. At some point it is better to use the eye test on all of these kids. Hustle matters, energy created matters— but I look for what players make plays and when do they make them with time and score being critical. I very much agree with this, with one caveat: the plays that an individual allows the opposing team to make on the other end are just as, if not more, critical. When looking at the tape, it’s very important to watch BOTH ends of the floor, which is what I’ve used to develop my opinions on AB. The stats are just meant to back up what I see. As I said before, I will happily eat crow if he plays at an all-league level and we are a top team in the final 7+ games of the season. We aren’t misaligned but I think he and others have been put in terrible positions defensively for the skills we have on the floor—a different set of options would capitalize on their strengths and hide their weaknesses-time will tell if that will be the case
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Feb 7, 2019 23:32:08 GMT -5
Stats are manipulated every day for both good and bad. Perhaps the team as a team played poorly, players stopped shooting and we weren’t scoring. At some point it is better to use the eye test on all of these kids. Hustle matters, energy created matters— but I look for what players make plays and when do they make them with time and score being critical. I very much agree with this, with one caveat: the plays that an individual allows the opposing team to make on the other end are just as, if not more, critical.
When looking at the tape, it’s very important to watch BOTH ends of the floor, which is what I’ve used to develop my opinions on AB. The stats are just meant to back up what I see. As I said before, I will happily eat crow if he plays at an all-league level and we are a top team in the final 7+ games of the season. Here's what Sports-Reference has calculated for each player's Offensive Rating (the higher the better) and Defensive Rating (the lower the better) during Patriot League play Player = O-Rating & D-Rating Floyd= 115.0 & 106.2 Butler= 109.0 &107.1 Faw= 89.8 & 96.9 Grandison= 99.2 & 108.7 Benzan= 99.5 & 108.5 Green= 96.9 & 113.0 Copeland= 108.2 & 104.2 very interesting, but only 93 minutes of play--I think we'll be seeing more of KC Ziggy= 77.4 & 120.2
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