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Post by alum on Mar 10, 2020 13:18:04 GMT -5
Smith College (joining Amherst, Middlebury, Harvard, etc.) announced it is sending students home for the semester when Spring Break begins on Friday. Students with nowhere to go will be allowed to stay on campus. The announcement explains the rationale
"You may be wondering why we are making this decision now, given that there are no known cases on our campus and few cases in Massachusetts. We believe that spring recess travel presents a potential threat to Smith. Because so many members of our community are planning to leave, their return, from many places, could present a significantly increased risk of exposure to the virus."
Maybe HC's early Spring Break will turn out to be a blessing and make it easier to keep the place open this Spring.
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Post by dadominate on Mar 10, 2020 13:22:29 GMT -5
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Post by thecrossisback on Mar 10, 2020 13:22:41 GMT -5
IVY league canceled their playoffs. Hurt Harvard because they beat Yale twice but Yale finished above them.
Another decision by the IVY League that punishes it's fans.
Same thing with the FCS Playoffs. The league is a joke.
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Post by hchoops on Mar 10, 2020 13:26:50 GMT -5
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Post by gks on Mar 10, 2020 13:32:43 GMT -5
We do not live in Italy. It's awful there. I wouldn't want to be there. The Italian Government and Medical people were ill-prepared. We are not here in the U.S. Cancelling college sporting events is stupid. Every couple of years we go through this and the viruses have been much worse in the past. Yet now we are hiding in holes. It's ridiculous. Are you paying attention? It's dangerous, especially if you are older. Noone knows how many are infected. It's highly contagious. There is no vaccine Yes I'm paying attention. If you are in an at-risk group then you should take necessary precautions. Why don't we shutdown the world for the flu every year?
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Post by gks on Mar 10, 2020 13:35:04 GMT -5
IVY league canceled their playoffs. Hurt Harvard because they beat Yale twice but Yale finished above them. Another decision by the IVY League that punishes it's fans. Same thing with the FCS Playoffs. The league is a joke. There is no consistency. If the Ivy is so concerned then why are you allowing Yale to play in the NCAA tournament where there are 10x the fans? If you're Harvard and you close your campus are you cancelling all school activities in the spring as well? Selective cancellations and fear is ridiculous.
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Post by lou on Mar 10, 2020 14:00:05 GMT -5
Are you paying attention? It's dangerous, especially if you are older. Noone knows how many are infected. It's highly contagious. There is no vaccine Yes I'm paying attention. If you are in an at-risk group then you should take necessary precautions. Why don't we shutdown the world for the flu every year? In my case I get a flu shot and I don't think about it after that...
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Post by dadominate on Mar 10, 2020 14:12:28 GMT -5
wash hands regularly with soap (surfectant far more effective than alcohol-based sanitizers for viruses), get enough sleep (incredibly important for immune system function), keep vitamin D levels high (at least 2,000 IU per day vitamin d supplementation for most people), consume immunostimulating foods (mushrooms, allium vegetables [onion, garlics, etc.], zinc, fermented foods [yogurt, kefir, kimchi], possibly probiotic supplement, etc.), and avoid densely-populated areas (public transportation, gym, etc.) if you don't need to be there and are immunocompromised.
lots of other hacks that health/performance enthusiasts like me do (cold showers, sauna, guided imagery, moderate/bodyweight exercise, etc.) that might provide some additional support beyond the core areas.
otherwise, just live your life.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Mar 10, 2020 14:25:18 GMT -5
Smart thinking by NY to employ prisoners to make the hand sanitizer--then, as I understand it, some observers started complaining that the prisoners were not being paid enough for their work.
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Post by WorcesterGray on Mar 10, 2020 15:16:58 GMT -5
Maybe HC's early Spring Break will turn out to be a blessing and make it easier to keep the place open this Spring. Governor Baker just declared a state of emergency in Massachusetts. I think that makes it more likely Holy Cross will be sending students home - college officials have been discussing the possibility for some time.
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Post by hcpride on Mar 10, 2020 16:10:02 GMT -5
I’m thinking that it is possible some closings/cancellations have an emotional inertia essentially unrelated to science and logic. There might be feelings of guilt, or feelings of being ‘left out’, or a desire not to appear insufficiently caring, or a desire to err on the safe side, that contribute to many of the decisions we are now seeing. (Hopefully the panic-prone don’t see each closing/cancellation as yet another reason to panic.) I had an inside ear to my high school's one-day Corona-virus closure and it was not based on science or logic. The link regarding Europe’s Coronavirus outlier, Italy, was illuminating (and reinforced earlier reports regarding their demographics). Although Germany is old too and they are proving much more successful at battling the disease. Thanks dadominate . There may have been some bureaucratic bungling as well (and that may be continuing). It may be Italy (9172 cases, 463 deaths) and places like South Korea (7513 cases, 58 deaths) provide lessons learned for us.
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Post by Chu Chu on Mar 10, 2020 16:12:28 GMT -5
For you guys mocking the precautions being taken, I do not think that you fully understand the situation. Social distancing, such as the methods described above, is done before he virus arrives, in order to dampen the spread. The hope is to lower the curve of new infections to a more manageable and flatter curve that does not overwhelm the medical system. Italy did not react fast enough, and that is why their health system is overwhelmed, with not enough intensive care, respirators, etc. The same could happen here.
While the disease is often mild, especially for the young, it is the threat that they can carry it to those at greatest risk that we need to worry about. The experience in China, for example, tells us that if you are age 70 or older, 20% require hospitalization in that age group, and 15% will die from the disease. The reason it is such a threat is because it is a "novel" virus that our bodies have never encountered before, and therefore we have no natural, pre-existing immunity.
As Dr Fauci says, we need to test thousands of people in each region of he country, to see how widespread the virus is right now, and understand our true risk. It our region of Washington State, for example, it now seems as though the virus has been circulating for some time (?months) without being recognized as novel.
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Post by Chu Chu on Mar 10, 2020 16:19:16 GMT -5
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Post by timholycross on Mar 10, 2020 16:34:33 GMT -5
Wegman's in Natick had no toilet paper (maybe 20 or 30 single rolls left)....there was a sign "one package per customer". Wonder when the run started and when they get more? I bet the other stores around there are in the same boat.
Stroke of luck, we bought a bunch a couple weeks ago because we had a $10 off $50 coupon and nothing left to buy.
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Post by alum on Mar 10, 2020 16:55:20 GMT -5
For you guys mocking the precautions being taken, I do not think that you fully understand the situation. Social distancing, such as the methods described above, is done before he virus arrives, in order to dampen the spread. The hope is to lower the curve of new infections to a more manageable and flatter curve that does not overwhelm the medical system. Italy did not react fast enough, and that is why their health system is overwhelmed, with not enough intensive care, respirators, etc. The same could happen here. While the disease is often mild, especially for the young, it is the threat that they can carry it to those at greatest risk that we need to worry about. The experience in China, for example, tells us that if you are age 70 or older, 20% require hospitalization in that age group, and 15% will die from the disease. The reason it is such a threat is because it is a "novel" virus that our bodies have never encountered before, and therefore we have no natural, pre-existing immunity. As Dr Fauci says, we need to test thousands of people in each region of he country, to see how widespread the virus is right now, and understand our true risk. It our region of Washington State, for example, it now seems as though the virus has been circulating for some time (?months) without being recognized as novel. Dr Fauci just mentioned the flattening of the curve as Chu mentioned above.
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Post by hcpride on Mar 10, 2020 17:21:21 GMT -5
Smart thinking by NY to employ prisoners to make the hand sanitizer--then, as I understand it, some observers started complaining that the prisoners were not being paid enough for their work. Right now the prisoners in Italy are rioting over the Coronavirus (unclear if they are really panicked over the virus or if it is just an excuse to riot): At San Vittore prison in Milan, detainees set fire to a cell block on one of the facility's six wings, then climbed onto the roof through windows and started waving banners, officials said. At a prison in the southern city of Foggia, about 20 inmates managed to break out of the building during protests. Many were quickly recaptured, Italy's Ansa news agency reported.There were also riots at several other prisons in northern Italy and at facilities in Naples and the capital, Rome. www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51805727NY situation is MUCH better than Italy as far as prisoners and Coronavirus are concerned.
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Post by HC92 on Mar 10, 2020 18:13:06 GMT -5
The Connecticut Interscholastic Athletic Conference has canceled all remaining winter tournaments after declining to do so yesterday. The director made an interesting point. He noted that when they talked to their member schools, they were told that different local health departments were taking different stances on what could be allowed. Some said that games could be played with no fans, some with 100 fans, some with no restrictions. For each game, they would have to consider both the home team and visiting team and the restrictions being placed upon them. In addition, he noted that some of the neutral sites they use were balking at hosting. I suppose that the NCAA will face some of the same issues although it obviously has greater negotiating power than a bunch of high schools. With all due respect to the CIAC, they could have just played in empty gyms or allowed each player 2 guests. This isn’t super complicated and the notion that they would have to change rules for each game is silly. If some school district wants to forfeit a game, that would be their right.
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Post by rf1 on Mar 10, 2020 18:31:58 GMT -5
Harvard, MIT, Amherst, Mount Holyoke, and Smith announced today that they are shutting down their campuses and sending all students home. All class studies going forward will be on line.
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Post by efg72 on Mar 10, 2020 18:58:28 GMT -5
Working 40 plus years in health and reviewing the available data and global models I call the move a prevention and preparation effort and not panic.
That said there is no early data suggesting the non baby boomers are at great risk. CDC asked for all over 60 to practice great hygiene, eat healthy, stay hydrated and if possible stay close to home. Judy Monroe, head of the CDC Foundation is on my Board
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Post by hcpride on Mar 10, 2020 19:07:12 GMT -5
/\ /\ There is a certain logic and appeal and comfort to closing down your college if the other colleges relatively nearby are closing down and then looking to close down your high school if nearby colleges are closing down, etc. (I do know that my high school is scrambling furiously right now to see how online teaching would work - Google Classroom, etc.)
If all the kids from all the closing down colleges were ordered to self-quarantine that would prevent them from getting and then spreading the disease to older and vulnerable folks. Closing the colleges and high schools without a directive to self-quarantine might result in them roaming/wandering more and thus exposing more older folks to the virus. (I stole that unintended consequence notion from a public health professional and friend who thinks, therefore, that school closings should be centrally managed so as to limit unhelpful closings.)
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Post by efg72 on Mar 10, 2020 19:15:46 GMT -5
For you guys mocking the precautions being taken, I do not think that you fully understand the situation. Social distancing, such as the methods described above, is done before he virus arrives, in order to dampen the spread. The hope is to lower the curve of new infections to a more manageable and flatter curve that does not overwhelm the medical system. Italy did not react fast enough, and that is why their health system is overwhelmed, with not enough intensive care, respirators, etc. The same could happen here. While the disease is often mild, especially for the young, it is the threat that they can carry it to those at greatest risk that we need to worry about. The experience in China, for example, tells us that if you are age 70 or older, 20% require hospitalization in that age group, and 15% will die from the disease. The reason it is such a threat is because it is a "novel" virus that our bodies have never encountered before, and therefore we have no natural, pre-existing immunity. As Dr Fauci says, we need to test thousands of people in each region of he country, to see how widespread the virus is right now, and understand our true risk. It our region of Washington State, for example, it now seems as though the virus has been circulating for some time (?months) without being recognized as novel. First I agree and working to assist the global efforts. Chu Chu the data, if accurate suggests a steep slope, 3-4 month plateau and then a decline. No clarity yet if it reappears or what the true starting point was in China, although it is believed to be early amid November and then it started to plateau in Mid-late December these models are updated hourly, and unfortunately based on China data. Will see if curves and data sets change when looking at Italy and Iran The bigger issue for us in the US is we have implemented zero from our disaster and pandemic learnings over the past 20 years. We operate in silos, and while some of that work is innovative and brilliant, we don’t prepare the right way. At the same time, Congress and government, under both parties, reduced BARDA funding. While there are great ideas nothing happens in a coordinated or collaborative way— we don’t have a health system by definition, as there is no connective tissue and incentives are misaligned. happy to chat off line and encourage Dado and other epidemiologist to jump in
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Mar 10, 2020 19:43:21 GMT -5
I want to make certain that I have this correct: you are predicting 300,000 to 1,200,000 deaths in the USA from the Corona Virus?
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Post by hcpride on Mar 10, 2020 19:46:40 GMT -5
This USA?
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Post by purplehaze on Mar 10, 2020 19:49:18 GMT -5
I put it on a general discussion thread - bucknell essentially closed the campus for the rest of the spring semester- balance of all instruction on-line
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on Mar 10, 2020 20:03:50 GMT -5
Okay, then, the models are predicting 300,000 to 1,200,000 deaths in the USA?
What is the track record of these models? Have they been used in the past to predict the results of other viruses/contagions/health events? How close did they come on those predictions?
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