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Post by hchoops on Mar 2, 2024 22:14:55 GMT -5
Our chance for the Quarterfinals.
Worth it, even to play at Colgate.
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Post by timholycross on Mar 3, 2024 9:25:01 GMT -5
It's tough to beat a team 3 times; then again, HC is capable of beating themselves so maybe it's a wash.
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Post by res on Mar 3, 2024 10:30:14 GMT -5
It's tough to beat a team 3 times; then again, HC is capable of beating themselves so maybe it's a wash. That's one of the most persistent myths in sports. In reality, it's relatively easy to beat a team three times in a season ONCE you have beaten them twice already. It is a matter of conditional probability. In the NFL playoffs, for example, roughly two-thirds the teams that face an opponent they swept in the regular season go on to win the playoff game. Think of flipping a coin. You have only a 12.5% chance of flipping a head three times in a row. However, if you have already flipped two heads, your chances of flipping a third rises to 50%. In sports, the team that wins the first two games in a series is usually, though not always, the better team. Given that, they are more likely to win a third game than the team who has lost the first two games. And that's exactly what the numbers show. |
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Post by timholycross on Mar 3, 2024 10:46:18 GMT -5
It's tough to beat a team 3 times; then again, HC is capable of beating themselves so maybe it's a wash. That's one of the most persistent myths in sports. In reality, it's relatively easy to beat a team three times in a season ONCE you have beaten them twice already. It is a matter of conditional probability. In the NFL playoffs, for example, roughly two-thirds the teams that face an opponent they swept in the regular season go on to win the playoff game. Think of flipping a coin. You have only a 12.5% chance of flipping a head three times in a row. However, if you have already flipped two heads, your chances of flipping a third rises to 50%. In sports, the team that wins the first two games in a series is usually, though not always, the better team. Given that, they are more likely to win a third game than the team who has lost the first two games. And that's exactly what the numbers show. Ah, there's the dilemma. Which Army team shows up, the one that lost twice to doormat Loyola (who HC somehow swept); or the one that was clearly better than HC in the two games played so far? |
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Mar 3, 2024 11:19:53 GMT -5
Among a host of other things, they will really need Louth to be super energized to help out Caleb. Seniors in general really need to step up.
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Post by notjuanjones on Mar 3, 2024 11:27:17 GMT -5
It's tough to beat a team 3 times; then again, HC is capable of beating themselves so maybe it's a wash. That's one of the most persistent myths in sports. In reality, it's relatively easy to beat a team three times in a season ONCE you have beaten them twice already. It is a matter of conditional probability. In the NFL playoffs, for example, roughly two-thirds the teams that face an opponent they swept in the regular season go on to win the playoff game. Think of flipping a coin. You have only a 12.5% chance of flipping a head three times in a row. However, if you have already flipped two heads, your chances of flipping a third rises to 50%. In sports, the team that wins the first two games in a series is usually, though not always, the better team. Given that, they are more likely to win a third game than the team who has lost the first two games. And that's exactly what the numbers show. I'm holding you to this Thursday. ;-) |
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Post by Tom on Mar 3, 2024 11:45:55 GMT -5
Among a host of other things, they will really need Louth to be super energized to help out Caleb. Seniors in general really need to step up. I'm thinking a bit of the opposite. Freshmen are inconsistent. Everyone of HC's freshmen have had step up games. Everyone of them has had double digit scoring games. In each of the last two games the freshmen class has combined for 13 points. I think one of the freshmen has to step up and have a big game if this team hopes to go to Colgate. Having 5 freshmen dress Tuesday would also be helpful |
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Post by timholycross on Mar 3, 2024 12:15:32 GMT -5
Among a host of other things, they will really need Louth to be super energized to help out Caleb. Seniors in general really need to step up. I'm thinking a bit of the opposite. Freshmen are inconsistent. Everyone of HC's freshmen have had step up games. Everyone of them has had double digit scoring games. In each of the last two games the freshmen class has combined for 13 points. I think one of the freshmen has to step up and have a big game if this team hopes to go to Colgate. Having 5 freshmen dress Tuesday would also be helpful Wills' finger condition is a well-kept secret. We got more info about planes Chesney and who was recruiting him might have been on than one darned finger. |
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Post by hcnj on Mar 3, 2024 14:07:31 GMT -5
That's one of the most persistent myths in sports. In reality, it's relatively easy to beat a team three times in a season ONCE you have beaten them twice already. It is a matter of conditional probability. In the NFL playoffs, for example, roughly two-thirds the teams that face an opponent they swept in the regular season go on to win the playoff game. Think of flipping a coin. You have only a 12.5% chance of flipping a head three times in a row. However, if you have already flipped two heads, your chances of flipping a third rises to 50%. In sports, the team that wins the first two games in a series is usually, though not always, the better team. Given that, they are more likely to win a third game than the team who has lost the first two games. And that's exactly what the numbers show. Ah, there's the dilemma. Which Army team shows up, the one that lost twice to doormat Loyola (who HC somehow swept); or the one that was clearly better than HC in the two games played so far? I think there's a reasonable chance, 50%, to beat Army. We're talking about playing a sub-average team in a bad league. If a good team beat a sub-average team twice it would be a whole other story. In addition to me expecting CK to play a good game it could be anyone from our "elses" who could shine and get us into the next game. Nugent needs to really focus on the defensive and rebounding aspect of his game to help CK and then we have several perimeter types who could score enough to get us by. It's a free roll for us. |
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Post by res on Mar 3, 2024 14:20:31 GMT -5
Well, if there's one thing I've learned, using Patriot League resuts to establish rules of thumb is a fool's errand.
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Post by efg72 on Mar 3, 2024 14:35:20 GMT -5
Play in games are a roll of the dice
Long season, you have been inconsistent and wins don't come easy
Do teams look at it as a chance to start fresh, or is it an opportunity to mail it in and enjoy the rest of spring break
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Mar 3, 2024 16:17:35 GMT -5
Ah, there's the dilemma. Which Army team shows up, the one that lost twice to doormat Loyola (who HC somehow swept); or the one that was clearly better than HC in the two games played so far? I think there's a reasonable chance, 50%, to beat Army. We're talking about playing a sub-average team in a bad league. If a good team beat a sub-average team twice it would be a whole other story. In addition to me expecting CK to play a good game it could be anyone from our "elses" who could shine and get us into the next game. Nugent needs to really focus on the defensive and rebounding aspect of his game to help CK and then we have several perimeter types who could score enough to get us by. It's a free roll for us. We don’t have the toughness to beat Army and Navy. In the four times we’ve played them, they have out-toughed us every single time. |
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Post by efg72 on Mar 3, 2024 17:10:04 GMT -5
If we should have won a game it was against Navy
If we are to win a game on Tuesday and we could play Army, Loyola, or Navy I would say our best shot is Army, especially if Perry is available for Loyola.
So I think Army is our best chance to steal a W on Tuesday
And then make that long us ride to Hamilton
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Post by hchoops on Mar 3, 2024 17:51:26 GMT -5
If we should have won a game it was against Navy If we are to win a game on Tuesday and we could play Army, Loyola, or Navy I would say our best shot is Army, especially if Perry is available for Loyola. So I think Army is our best chance to steal a W on Tuesday And then make that long us ride to Hamilton That ride would be long both ways, but happier going to Hamilton. |
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Mar 3, 2024 18:18:02 GMT -5
If we beat Army, I imagine we’d make the three hour drive to Hamilton late Tuesday night. Makes little sense driving back to Worcester.
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Post by cmo on Mar 3, 2024 18:31:29 GMT -5
Especially on spring break
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Post by rgs318 on Mar 3, 2024 18:36:10 GMT -5
Massey makes Army a 6 point favorite (68-62) and says the Cadets have a 73% chance for the win.
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Post by efg72 on Mar 3, 2024 18:46:05 GMT -5
Go to the window now
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Post by timholycross on Mar 3, 2024 19:33:09 GMT -5
Go to the window now. Pls Clarify |
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Post by hcnj on Mar 3, 2024 20:15:17 GMT -5
I think there's a reasonable chance, 50%, to beat Army. We're talking about playing a sub-average team in a bad league. If a good team beat a sub-average team twice it would be a whole other story. In addition to me expecting CK to play a good game it could be anyone from our "elses" who could shine and get us into the next game. Nugent needs to really focus on the defensive and rebounding aspect of his game to help CK and then we have several perimeter types who could score enough to get us by. It's a free roll for us. We don’t have the toughness to beat Army and Navy. In the four times we’ve played them, they have out-toughed us every single time. playing "well" and "toughness" are different matters. We don't have a particularly "tough" team on any night. We occasionally do play well and I don't think Army is a very good team. We have no chance of suddenly becoming a tough team but we do have a chance to play well. I'm talking about a coin flip against a not very good team, not a very high bar. I had no delusions going into this season that we'd be a good team, barring future roster additions/subtractions I'm not feeling we'll be a good team next year but that's for our post-season threads. |
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Post by longsuffering on Mar 3, 2024 20:21:46 GMT -5
Go to the window now. Pls ClarifyPut down a bet on Holy Cross? I think HC will take this game very seriously. For the seniors it's the last train to Clarksville, the last chance to get the quarterfinal monkee off their back. |
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Wayne
Sophomore
Posts: 28 
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Post by Wayne on Mar 4, 2024 0:10:56 GMT -5
6:00 tip on a Tuesday? Really?
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Post by longsuffering on Mar 4, 2024 0:26:10 GMT -5
6:00 tip on a Tuesday? Really? Play-in teams can't be picky. |
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Post by timholycross on Mar 4, 2024 7:27:55 GMT -5
6:00 tip on a Tuesday? Really? Perhaps allows the student body to attend? All I can think of. "Lights out" there is fairly early, I would think. Of course, reveille (sp?) is 0400 or 0500! |
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Post by Non Alum Dave on Mar 4, 2024 9:00:03 GMT -5
Probably a dumb question, but could it be just to give the winning team 1 extra hour for travel/prep for the quarterfinal?
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