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Post by Sons of Vaval on May 14, 2024 21:13:24 GMT -5
Leave it to Phreek to reference “fertility rate” in a thread about Richmond joining the PL.
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Post by Crucis#1 on May 14, 2024 21:17:23 GMT -5
Weird fact: Apparently Richmond has been a member of the Patriot League in women’s golf and hosted the Patriot League women’s golf championship in 2023. Weird facts aside, I’m very excited about Richmond joining the league. A strong football program, a strong academic profile and a great southern city that has long been moving on from its Confederate past. Current U of R Associate Athletics Director for Compliance (and former Taunton, Mass., City Councilor and Bucknell QB) Ryan Colton was HC’s Assistant AD for Compliance for a time in the 2010s. richmondspiders.com/staff-directory/ryan-colton/295 richmondspiders.com/news/2024/4/21/womens-golf-spiders-place-fourth-at-patriot-league-championship.aspx“The event was Richmond's final tournament as a member of the Patriot League. The Spiders will join the Atlantic 10 for its inaugural women's golf season in 2024-25.” One team leaves….another comes aboard.
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Post by sittingbull on May 14, 2024 22:04:56 GMT -5
Richmond is ranked higher than Holy cross in the USN&WR National LAC rankings rankings. Richmond is also quite rich, endowment dollars per student are 3x that of HC. Also richer than GU on the same measure. So the endowment per student pecking order for PL football schools: Richmond Colgate Lafayette Holy Cross Bucknell Lehigh Georgetown Fordham Tobacco money has made for solid endowments across the South. It’s not tobacco. Robins and Ukrop are two of the largest donors to UR. AH Robins was a major pharmaceutical company based in Richmond. It was bought out by Wyeth in Philadelphia. The arena at UR is named the Robins Center. The Robins family also bankrolled the Richmond Robins, the cities hockey team in the AHL back in the 70s and 80s. Ukrop was the leading grocer in Richmond for years, very upscale. They also sold out about a decade ago to Giant out of PA. They still operate upscale food distribution and service Kroger and Publix in Richmond. The other Ukrop brother is a huge supporter and donor at W&M. I think UR is a good fit for the PL. W&M will not follow, the College vested as an all sports member of the CAA. The majority of the fanbase as well as our new AD are on board that the CAA as the best home for W&M sports.
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Post by longsuffering on May 14, 2024 22:26:33 GMT -5
Again there’s some confusion here. If 168 AI is the floor, how many football players can be admitted at the relevant PL school with that score to achieve the necessary average? The answer is very few. I for one don’t think standardized testing is or has ever been a great market for success or rather I would lend more credence to other part’s of a student’s application / resume. Back to the point at hand, Richmond has far more players on their roster with AI’s in the 168-172 range right now than the PL. I’m sure this has been worked out but I don’t know the solution yet. I’m assuming the middle ground, some relief for Richmond but some AI standard will exist. And this matters for recruiting. Since I’m likely one of the few that has been through this process - I had 4 schools that used the AI recruiting me late in the cycle (2 Ivy and 2 PL). As it came crunch time for OVs 1 (Princeton) told me that my AI was too low at a position where they didn’t have a need to admit from that part of the AI band. I took OVs to the other 3. With the AI, there is a premium on recruiting kids that can help lift the average, so if there are 2 players fairly close on the board, the one player that can help lift the class average often moves up the board. I think the IL bands have disappeared, but I don't know for sure. I am fairly certain they've already disappeared in the PL, if they ever truly existed. What has remained is the floor and apparently the AI average of all recruited athletes being within one standard deviation of the school-wide AI. Richmond's school-wide AI is not that different from Colgate's. .Georgetown's school-wide AI is higher than Colgate's. In the IL at least, schools do borrow the AI scores from teams whose athletes have an average AI less than one standard deviation below the school-wide AI, and 'lend' these scores to teams whose team-wide average AI score is below the one standard deviation. There is a demographic collapse underway. See the headline in yesterdays WSJ. The peak year for U.S. births was 2007, with 4.32 million. (This is the class of 2025.) In 2023, the number of births was 3.59 million (about 17 percent fewer than in 2007.) This will be the future class of 2044. And it will get worse. The total fertility rate in the U.S. in 2023 was 1.62, and dropping steadily (Total fertility rates measure the number of live births that a female has during her reproductive years. You need a total fertility rate of 2.1 to replace an existing population (not factoring in migration.) The total fertility rate in 'Catholic' Italy is 1.24 and the rural country-side is being de-populated. See this Italian villa for sale for130,000 euros, that nobody apparently wants to buy. www.abruzzoruralproperty.com/italian-villas/item/1392-incredible-lake-view-with-panoramic-terrace-and-land-in-guardialfieraAnd men are choosing to pass on attending four year colleges. From Pew Research Group (December 2023: “Most of the decline is due to fewer young men pursuing college. About 1 million fewer young men are in college but only 0.2 million fewer young women. As a result, men make up 44% of young college students today, down from 47% in 2011, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau data. “This shift is driven entirely by the falling share of men who are students at four-year colleges. Today, men represent only 42% of students ages 18 to 24 at four-year schools, down from 47% in 2011." And then there is enrollment at Catholic schools. Nationally, total enrollment decreased by 25 percent between 2007-08 and 2023-24, most of it in New England and the Mideast. (Catholic education association's geographical groupings.) IMO, I think Rougeau has about ten years to position HC as a school that seeks applicants nationally. (The effects of the demographic decline is already being experienced in Maine and Vermont, and the decline in the fertility rate is sharpest in New England and Oregon). He also needs to boost financial aid significantly, and improve the school's academic reputation. Otherwise by 2043, it will likely be a regional college, with a diminished academic reputation. I'm heading for the Tobin Bridge to jump off. Maybe a decent percentage of colleges will close so the number of available college student spots per 18 year old will remain constant. The problem with that is the closures will be lower rated colleges so HC will be closer to the bottom than now.
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 14, 2024 22:46:40 GMT -5
HC will be closer to the bottom than now? Are you kidding? Well I guess if a dozen 6-footers left the NBA Jokic would be closer to the bottom in height wouldn’t he???
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Post by longsuffering on May 14, 2024 22:47:03 GMT -5
If Villanova joins (in 2026 or 2027?) as Bob Black ^^^(who works for the Univ. of Richmond) hinted, then (IMO) Georgetown has a hard choice: either money for some merit scollies, or drop down to the Pioneer League. When a school spent more on men's basketball last year than HC did on its entire athletic program, that's a hoops-centric school. And its in a hoop-centric conference. And with the possible emergence of two national super-conferences in football, it would not surprise me in the least that a basketball-centric conference then slides down to the mid-majors. Again IMO, the media broadcast revenue is simply not going to be there for a basketball-centric conference. Look at it this way, advertisers get a pure play - quality BB when they advertise on Big East BB games. You pay more per ounce for the small single serving bag of potato chips than the big family size bag. You can pay more per game when you don't have to finance a whole Big Ten, SEC or ACC media contract.
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Post by longsuffering on May 14, 2024 22:57:39 GMT -5
HC will be closer to the bottom than now? Are you kidding? Well I guess if a dozen 6-footers left the NBA Jokic would be closer to the bottom in height wouldn’t he??? Amherst and Williams won't be closing, but some colleges will have to if there are fewer customers (students) to go around. Some national liberal arts colleges may have to leave the category if they are forced to drop some liberal arts offerings in favor of more in demand pre-professional programs like Nursing. Maybe immigration will solve the birth dearth.
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Post by hcpride on May 15, 2024 2:57:30 GMT -5
Tobacco money has made for solid endowments across the South. … I think UR is a good fit for the PL. W&M will not follow, the College vested as an all sports member of the CAA. The majority of the fanbase as well as our new AD are on board that the CAA as the best home for W&M sports. Agreed, W&M being a public all-sports CAA member isn’t heading to PL. At some point we’ll find out Richmond’s specific issue(s) with the CAA. The word is that their internal decision to depart CAA came prior to a decision to pursue PL football membership. We know JMU and Delaware departed to go FBS. On another front there were those who extolled the virtue of belonging to a small conference because it meant more non-conference games could be played (kind of an odd virtue and not altogether certain how serious these folks were)…hopefully they are OK with adding Richmond as another in-conference game. 😀
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mainejeff
Climbing Mt. St. James
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UMaine Sports Forum: https://umainesports.freeforums.net
Posts: 78
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Post by mainejeff on May 15, 2024 4:52:27 GMT -5
HC will be closer to the bottom than now? Are you kidding? Well I guess if a dozen 6-footers left the NBA Jokic would be closer to the bottom in height wouldn’t he??? Amherst and Williams won't be closing, but some colleges will have to if there are fewer customers (students) to go around. Some national liberal arts colleges may have to leave the category if they are forced to drop some liberal arts offerings in favor of more in demand pre-professional programs like Nursing. Maybe immigration will solve the birth dearth. Not if certain people are in charge. The trailer trash majority is rising and higher education on a mass basis might be a thing of the past.
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Post by rgs318 on May 15, 2024 7:17:32 GMT -5
Unfortunate that it is for football only It has to start somewhere. ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png)
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Post by hc1996 on May 15, 2024 7:26:41 GMT -5
Again there’s some confusion here. If 168 AI is the floor, how many football players can be admitted at the relevant PL school with that score to achieve the necessary average? The answer is very few. I for one don’t think standardized testing is or has ever been a great market for success or rather I would lend more credence to other part’s of a student’s application / resume. Back to the point at hand, Richmond has far more players on their roster with AI’s in the 168-172 range right now than the PL. I’m sure this has been worked out but I don’t know the solution yet. I’m assuming the middle ground, some relief for Richmond but some AI standard will exist. And this matters for recruiting. Since I’m likely one of the few that has been through this process - I had 4 schools that used the AI recruiting me late in the cycle (2 Ivy and 2 PL). As it came crunch time for OVs 1 (Princeton) told me that my AI was too low at a position where they didn’t have a need to admit from that part of the AI band. I took OVs to the other 3. With the AI, there is a premium on recruiting kids that can help lift the average, so if there are 2 players fairly close on the board, the one player that can help lift the class average often moves up the board. I think the IL bands have disappeared, but I don't know for sure. I am fairly certain they've already disappeared in the PL, if they ever truly existed. What has remained is the floor and apparently the AI average of all recruited athletes being within one standard deviation of the school-wide AI. Richmond's school-wide AI is not that different from Colgate's. .Georgetown's school-wide AI is higher than Colgate's. In the IL at least, schools do borrow the AI scores from teams whose athletes have an average AI less than one standard deviation below the school-wide AI, and 'lend' these scores to teams whose team-wide average AI score is below the one standard deviation. There is a demographic collapse underway. See the headline in yesterdays WSJ. The peak year for U.S. births was 2007, with 4.32 million. (This is the class of 2025.) In 2023, the number of births was 3.59 million (about 17 percent fewer than in 2007.) This will be the future class of 2044. And it will get worse. The total fertility rate in the U.S. in 2023 was 1.62, and dropping steadily (Total fertility rates measure the number of live births that a female has during her reproductive years. You need a total fertility rate of 2.1 to replace an existing population (not factoring in migration.) The total fertility rate in 'Catholic' Italy is 1.24 and the rural country-side is being de-populated. See this Italian villa for sale for130,000 euros, that nobody apparently wants to buy. www.abruzzoruralproperty.com/italian-villas/item/1392-incredible-lake-view-with-panoramic-terrace-and-land-in-guardialfieraAnd men are choosing to pass on attending four year colleges. From Pew Research Group (December 2023: “Most of the decline is due to fewer young men pursuing college. About 1 million fewer young men are in college but only 0.2 million fewer young women. As a result, men make up 44% of young college students today, down from 47% in 2011, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau data. “This shift is driven entirely by the falling share of men who are students at four-year colleges. Today, men represent only 42% of students ages 18 to 24 at four-year schools, down from 47% in 2011." And then there is enrollment at Catholic schools. Nationally, total enrollment decreased by 25 percent between 2007-08 and 2023-24, most of it in New England and the Mideast. (Catholic education association's geographical groupings.) IMO, I think Rougeau has about ten years to position HC as a school that seeks applicants nationally. (The effects of the demographic decline is already being experienced in Maine and Vermont, and the decline in the fertility rate is sharpest in New England and Oregon). He also needs to boost financial aid significantly, and improve the school's academic reputation. Otherwise by 2043, it will likely be a regional college, with a diminished academic reputation. Like I said in a previous post, HC is not a "popular" school nationally amongst the kids who are applying to top 25 liberal arts colleges. Rougeau needs to do something to change that. Sad to think that there are headwinds because we are a Catholic school, but that seems to be the case. I'm not suggesting a name change, but know several kids who were surprised to learn that Georgetown and Boston College were Catholic institutions.
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Post by timholycross on May 15, 2024 7:30:11 GMT -5
One post so far on a Villanova board. "Wow another "old guard" CAA school flying the coop. First JMU, then Delaware and now the Spiders. Will the Cats stick it out with new schools like Monmouth, Hampton, Campbell and North Carolina A&T that they have absolutely nothing in common with or be the next to jump???" I have to think the remaining football-affiliated-only CAA schools are open to change as well.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on May 15, 2024 7:56:21 GMT -5
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Post by alum on May 15, 2024 7:58:18 GMT -5
I think the IL bands have disappeared, but I don't know for sure. I am fairly certain they've already disappeared in the PL, if they ever truly existed. What has remained is the floor and apparently the AI average of all recruited athletes being within one standard deviation of the school-wide AI. Richmond's school-wide AI is not that different from Colgate's. .Georgetown's school-wide AI is higher than Colgate's. In the IL at least, schools do borrow the AI scores from teams whose athletes have an average AI less than one standard deviation below the school-wide AI, and 'lend' these scores to teams whose team-wide average AI score is below the one standard deviation. There is a demographic collapse underway. See the headline in yesterdays WSJ. The peak year for U.S. births was 2007, with 4.32 million. (This is the class of 2025.) In 2023, the number of births was 3.59 million (about 17 percent fewer than in 2007.) This will be the future class of 2044. And it will get worse. The total fertility rate in the U.S. in 2023 was 1.62, and dropping steadily (Total fertility rates measure the number of live births that a female has during her reproductive years. You need a total fertility rate of 2.1 to replace an existing population (not factoring in migration.) The total fertility rate in 'Catholic' Italy is 1.24 and the rural country-side is being de-populated. See this Italian villa for sale for130,000 euros, that nobody apparently wants to buy. www.abruzzoruralproperty.com/italian-villas/item/1392-incredible-lake-view-with-panoramic-terrace-and-land-in-guardialfieraAnd men are choosing to pass on attending four year colleges. From Pew Research Group (December 2023: “Most of the decline is due to fewer young men pursuing college. About 1 million fewer young men are in college but only 0.2 million fewer young women. As a result, men make up 44% of young college students today, down from 47% in 2011, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau data. “This shift is driven entirely by the falling share of men who are students at four-year colleges. Today, men represent only 42% of students ages 18 to 24 at four-year schools, down from 47% in 2011." And then there is enrollment at Catholic schools. Nationally, total enrollment decreased by 25 percent between 2007-08 and 2023-24, most of it in New England and the Mideast. (Catholic education association's geographical groupings.) IMO, I think Rougeau has about ten years to position HC as a school that seeks applicants nationally. (The effects of the demographic decline is already being experienced in Maine and Vermont, and the decline in the fertility rate is sharpest in New England and Oregon). He also needs to boost financial aid significantly, and improve the school's academic reputation. Otherwise by 2043, it will likely be a regional college, with a diminished academic reputation. Like I said in a previous post, HC is not a "popular" school nationally amongst the kids who are applying to top 25 liberal arts colleges. Rougeau needs to do something to change that. Sad to think that there are headwinds because we are a Catholic school, but that seems to be the case. I'm not suggesting a name change, but know several kids who were surprised to learn that Georgetown and Boston College were Catholic institutions. I think that this tells us that plenty of kids really have no idea what they are doing when they begin the college application process. Perhaps college admissions is not an example of rational decisionmaking?
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Post by longsuffering on May 15, 2024 8:24:18 GMT -5
… I think UR is a good fit for the PL. W&M will not follow, the College vested as an all sports member of the CAA. The majority of the fanbase as well as our new AD are on board that the CAA as the best home for W&M sports. Agreed, W&M being a public all-sports CAA member isn’t heading to PL. At some point we’ll find out Richmond’s specific issue(s) with the CAA. The word is that their internal decision to depart CAA came prior to a decision to pursue PL football membership. We know JMU and Delaware departed to go FBS. On another front there were those who extolled the virtue of belonging to a small conference because it meant more non-conference games could be played (kind of an odd virtue and not altogether certain how serious these folks were)…hopefully they are OK with adding Richmond as another in-conference game. 😀 OK with it. Assuming the PL remains a one bid league most years, each current member school may go to the playoffs slightly less frequently but the league as a whole is stronger.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on May 15, 2024 8:24:28 GMT -5
I think the IL bands have disappeared, but I don't know for sure. I am fairly certain they've already disappeared in the PL, if they ever truly existed. What has remained is the floor and apparently the AI average of all recruited athletes being within one standard deviation of the school-wide AI. Richmond's school-wide AI is not that different from Colgate's. .Georgetown's school-wide AI is higher than Colgate's. In the IL at least, schools do borrow the AI scores from teams whose athletes have an average AI less than one standard deviation below the school-wide AI, and 'lend' these scores to teams whose team-wide average AI score is below the one standard deviation. There is a demographic collapse underway. See the headline in yesterdays WSJ. The peak year for U.S. births was 2007, with 4.32 million. (This is the class of 2025.) In 2023, the number of births was 3.59 million (about 17 percent fewer than in 2007.) This will be the future class of 2044. And it will get worse. The total fertility rate in the U.S. in 2023 was 1.62, and dropping steadily (Total fertility rates measure the number of live births that a female has during her reproductive years. You need a total fertility rate of 2.1 to replace an existing population (not factoring in migration.) The total fertility rate in 'Catholic' Italy is 1.24 and the rural country-side is being de-populated. See this Italian villa for sale for130,000 euros, that nobody apparently wants to buy. www.abruzzoruralproperty.com/italian-villas/item/1392-incredible-lake-view-with-panoramic-terrace-and-land-in-guardialfieraAnd men are choosing to pass on attending four year colleges. From Pew Research Group (December 2023: “Most of the decline is due to fewer young men pursuing college. About 1 million fewer young men are in college but only 0.2 million fewer young women. As a result, men make up 44% of young college students today, down from 47% in 2011, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau data. “This shift is driven entirely by the falling share of men who are students at four-year colleges. Today, men represent only 42% of students ages 18 to 24 at four-year schools, down from 47% in 2011." And then there is enrollment at Catholic schools. Nationally, total enrollment decreased by 25 percent between 2007-08 and 2023-24, most of it in New England and the Mideast. (Catholic education association's geographical groupings.) IMO, I think Rougeau has about ten years to position HC as a school that seeks applicants nationally. (The effects of the demographic decline is already being experienced in Maine and Vermont, and the decline in the fertility rate is sharpest in New England and Oregon). He also needs to boost financial aid significantly, and improve the school's academic reputation. Otherwise by 2043, it will likely be a regional college, with a diminished academic reputation. Like I said in a previous post, HC is not a "popular" school nationally amongst the kids who are applying to top 25 liberal arts colleges. Rougeau needs to do something to change that. Sad to think that there are headwinds because we are a Catholic school, but that seems to be the case. I'm not suggesting a name change, but know several kids who were surprised to learn that Georgetown and Boston College were Catholic institutions. Undoubtedly some truth about the Catholic association. Number of Applications for the class of 2028 Notre Dame 29,943. BC 35,435 BU 78,750 Northeastern 98,373 Tufts 34,400 Tufts is not exactly a household name, but its applicant pool was close in number to BC's Tufts discussing admissions for class of 2028 Given Notre Dame's financial aid generosity, (thanks to an endowment 18x higher than HC's, and about 6x higher than BC's, one would expect more applicants.
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Post by matunuck on May 15, 2024 9:07:36 GMT -5
I never bought the name of the school argument for why we couldn't grow our app numbers. We have now because we tossed the old regime and implemented a real strategy to reach more high schools and top students. For many years, I and others on this board harshly criticized HC's admissions structure and strategy. HC has just begun its new approach, and we have already experienced very positive results. There is no reason HC app numbers can't far exceed 10K in the years ahead if we continue to make smart decisions.
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Post by hc1996 on May 15, 2024 9:55:09 GMT -5
Like I said in a previous post, HC is not a "popular" school nationally amongst the kids who are applying to top 25 liberal arts colleges. Rougeau needs to do something to change that. Sad to think that there are headwinds because we are a Catholic school, but that seems to be the case. I'm not suggesting a name change, but know several kids who were surprised to learn that Georgetown and Boston College were Catholic institutions. I think that this tells us that plenty of kids really have no idea what they are doing when they begin the college application process. Perhaps college admissions is not an example of rational decisionmaking? Agreed
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Post by mm67 on May 15, 2024 10:25:29 GMT -5
Neighbors thought HC was a seminary & assumed I was going to study for the priesthood. The name is what it is - a turnoff for some, a non-factor for others. Take it or leave it. Fenwick College of The Holy Cross, The Fens? HA!
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Post by KY Crusader 75 on May 15, 2024 10:36:17 GMT -5
Holy Cross is a Catholic college with a name that sounds Catholic. If prospective students are anti-Catholic they should go elsewhere.
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Post by jkh67 on May 15, 2024 10:42:40 GMT -5
Richmond-W&M isn't just any end-of-season rivalry game. It probably has more history than any at the FCS level outside of Harvard-Yale, Lehigh-Lafayette and VMI-Citadel. Not FCS but to this day I truly miss the annual HC-BC rivalry game. Approaching 80 next year and it still hurts. Couldn't agree more, fellow member of the HC Class of '67. I occasionally run into high school classmates who went to BC who guffaw when I tell them that my college choice hinged in part on football and that I opted for HC over BC. The guffaws stop immediately when I remind them that we were 2-2 during my four years on the Hill and that one of our two losses was by 10-8. The other rivalry I really miss is Dartmouth, an annual foe for many decades. Not sure what happened there. Richmond is obviously great news for PL football. It may take some time, but my guess is that W&M and Nova will also see the light, when all is said and done. The CAA is tanking and what other realistic options do they have?
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Post by hchoops on May 15, 2024 10:44:49 GMT -5
Neighbors thought HC was a seminary & assumed I was going to study for the priesthood. About 55 years ago ?
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Post by longsuffering on May 15, 2024 10:50:12 GMT -5
In a world of disintegrating standards, norms and traditions, a college with the same name since 1843 is something to be proud of. Also glad we didn't change from the Crusaders to the Beacons like Valpo did. That's also why I don't favor Richmond dropping their end of season traditional football game with William and Mary just because they joined the PL, and why I favor HC scheduling BC as often as possible.
If Richmond can accept Georgetown and Holy Cross history of slave owning, (there's some irony in there somewhere) we can accept their proud tradition with Bill and Mary.
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Post by hcpride on May 15, 2024 11:03:12 GMT -5
Agreed, W&M being a public all-sports CAA member isn’t heading to PL. At some point we’ll find out Richmond’s specific issue(s) with the CAA. The word is that their internal decision to depart CAA came prior to a decision to pursue PL football membership. We know JMU and Delaware departed to go FBS. On another front there were those who extolled the virtue of belonging to a small conference because it meant more non-conference games could be played (kind of an odd virtue and not altogether certain how serious these folks were)…hopefully they are OK with adding Richmond as another in-conference game. 😀 OK with it. Assuming the PL remains a one bid league most years, each current member school may go to the playoffs slightly less frequently but the league as a whole is stronger. Yes, the argument that PL football was a great league because there weren’t very many games versus the member schools kinda sounded like a (very) backhanded compliment. Or making a silk purse of a sow’s ear. In any case, glad to see that notion evaporate.
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Post by longsuffering on May 15, 2024 11:28:18 GMT -5
The annual PL representative in the playoffs will be battle tested.
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