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Post by alum on Jan 21, 2022 8:20:22 GMT -5
Two points:
1. Given the wildly high positivity rate in the face of widespread testing, the fact that there are a lot of incidental cases in the hospital over the past couple of months ought not be surprising to anyone.
2. From the hospital's perspective, the fact that a patient is admitted for something else and tests positive for Covid is relevant for two important reasons: In some instances, Covid might complicate the treatment of the original reason for admission and, in all instances, the Covid diagnosis will demand that infection control procedures be put in place necessitating isolation and use of protective equipment.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 21, 2022 8:57:11 GMT -5
Especially since many folks have have been pushing for this very obvious refinement in stats for almost two years. Kinda interesting it’s finally now😉. Not as though some emerging technology was needed to execute this. Ditto the very recently-de emphasized (not to mention wildly inaccurate) infection numbers we used to see constantly publicized. Who are these many folks who have been pushing for this for almost two years? Those who were hospitalized with earlier variants were admitted because they had COVID. And were treated for such. A hallmark of a COVID diagnosis necessitating admission was low oxygen levels. See DJT, as an example. There was a run on pulse oximeters so people could measure their oxygen levels at home. I daresay these days those oximeters are gathering dust on shelves across America. With Omicron, as primarily an upper respiratory tract illness, and with widespread vaccination, a very high percentage of those infected with Omicron are asymptomatic or only mildly asymptomatic. Such individuals are not coming to the hospital at death's door, so to speak. Massachusetts, as I have noted previously, undercounts the positive test rate it officially reports. Because schools, such as Holy Cross and others, do recurring universal testing of students and staff, the test positivity rate is low, and is much, much lower than the positivity rate for all other residents of Massachusetts. Massachusetts blends these low higher-ed rates with the rates for everyone else and slices the positivity rate for MA by 25-30 percent, even though the higher-ed tested population is 2-3 percent of the total population. Using Massachusetts as an example, the best metric, IMO, is the number of COVID patients in the ICU and who are intubated. On Jan 14, 2022, the number was 295 On Jan 19, 2021, the number was 299, peak value for all of 2021. On April 21, 2020, the number was 842, the all-time peak. Massachusetts does not report how many of the currently intubated patients are infected with Delta and how many with Omicron, However given that Omicron was 45 percent of MA cases on December 16th, and 95 percent on January 6th, it is highly likely that a substantial percentage of those presently in the ICUs are there with Omicron. _____________ This is a rhetorical question. if you are familiar with the U. S. Army's Unit Status Reports, or predecessor metrics, what did you think of them?
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Post by hcpride on Jan 21, 2022 12:06:13 GMT -5
Especially since many folks have have been pushing for this very obvious refinement in stats for almost two years. Kinda interesting it’s finally now😉. Not as though some emerging technology was needed to execute this. Ditto the very recently-de emphasized (not to mention wildly inaccurate) infection numbers we used to see constantly publicized. This is a rhetorical question. if you are familiar with the U. S. Army's Unit Status Reports, or predecessor metrics, what did you think of them? LOL The USR metrics were significant and quantifiable. Things like personnel, ammo, food , fuel, etc. Very significant to the unit's mission and very quantifiable. And when the metric hits a certain range it is assigned red, amber, or green. The identification (and constant review) of the most significant metrics as well as the identification (and constant review) of nested numerical ranges is quite an exercise in staff coordination and brain power. In the Age of Covid we have seen some evidence of metrics here and there. Unfortunately, there is an uneven application of the significant and quantifiable standard. (I notice colleges frequently lack on the significance side of the ledger in identifying metrics).
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 21, 2022 12:31:41 GMT -5
This is a complete tangent, but numerous, numerous moons ago, I was overseeing development of both new and refined older metrics for a small number of units in DOD. These units were serving as pilots for measures that might eventually be used service-wide.
The unit commander for the Numero Uno Fighter Wing in the whole USAF voluntarily suggested the volume of alcohol consumed at the Officer's Club as the measure of unit morale. I called it my Delphic measure, after the Oracle at Delphi. ____________ I brought up USRs, because it was said those filling out these reports often spent more time gaming the reports than they did in providing accurate values.
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Post by newfieguy74 on Jan 21, 2022 12:56:13 GMT -5
I'm not familiar with USR's, but I've always thought of the Smoot as the most accurate way to measure distance, and wonder if it could be modified to measure other quantifiables as well.
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Post by hcpride on Jan 22, 2022 6:34:12 GMT -5
Especially since many folks have have been pushing for this very obvious refinement in stats for almost two years. Kinda interesting it’s finally now😉. Not as though some emerging technology was needed to execute this. Ditto the very recently-de emphasized (not to mention wildly inaccurate) infection numbers we used to see constantly publicized. Who are these many folks who have been pushing for this for almost two years? Here’s something from eight months ago (turned out the Covid alarmism relative to young kids was ratcheted up by same OBVIOUS statistical issue): med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2021/05/covid-19-hospitalizations-among-kids-likely-overcounted.htmlnymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2021/05/study-number-of-kids-hospitalized-for-covid-is-overcounted.html“Taken together, these studies underscore the importance of clearly distinguishing between children hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 found on universal testing versus those hospitalized for COVID-19 disease.” (They conclude there was at least a 40% overcount…and this is thoroughly unrelated to Omicron and Delta, obviously.) Of corse it is terrific MA suddenly 😉 caught on and yesterday (not a misprint!) started publishing the data on those hospitalized for Covid as opposed to incidental positives.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 22, 2022 6:49:33 GMT -5
I'm not familiar with USR's, but I've always thought of the Smoot as the most accurate way to measure distance, and wonder if it could be modified to measure other quantifiables as well. Absolutely! No reason that smoots could not be used to measure degrees in an arc. The more traditional use of smoots.
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Post by Chu Chu on Jan 22, 2022 12:46:38 GMT -5
This is a complete tangent, but numerous, numerous moons ago, I was overseeing development of both new and refined older metrics for a small number of units in DOD. These units were serving as pilots for measures that might eventually be used service-wide. The unit commander for the Numero Uno Fighter Wing in the whole USAF voluntarily suggested the volume of alcohol consumed at the Officer's Club as the measure of unit morale. I called it my Delphic measure, after the Oracle at Delphi. ____________ I brought up USRs, because it was said those filling out these reports often spent more time gaming the reports than they did in providing accurate values. Serious question - Did this Delphic measure correlate a high volume of alcohol consumed at the Officer's Club with good morale or the opposite? Or both?
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Jan 22, 2022 12:57:04 GMT -5
PP, did you ever cross paths with HC alum Joseph Kerwin?
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Post by Crucis#1 on Jan 22, 2022 13:07:01 GMT -5
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 22, 2022 17:32:29 GMT -5
This is a complete tangent, but numerous, numerous moons ago, I was overseeing development of both new and refined older metrics for a small number of units in DOD. These units were serving as pilots for measures that might eventually be used service-wide. The unit commander for the Numero Uno Fighter Wing in the whole USAF voluntarily suggested the volume of alcohol consumed at the Officer's Club as the measure of unit morale. I called it my Delphic measure, after the Oracle at Delphi. ____________ I brought up USRs, because it was said those filling out these reports often spent more time gaming the reports than they did in providing accurate values. Serious question - Did this Delphic measure correlate a high volume of alcohol consumed at the Officer's Club with good morale or the opposite? Or both? The unit was/is based at Langley AFB in VA., and I never had a discussion with the unit commander, only received a written proposed set of measures for review. I deferred to the Air Force on whether the proposed metric would ever be used. But your question was my question. Did morose pilots drink more, and did celebratory pilots drink less? (And to be fair, I recall that the metric was 'sales at the Officers Club', and no explicit reference to alcohol. The commander was thinking outside the box, but he wasn't stupid.) But I suspect that his pilots drank more when they were in a celebratory mood. The pilots in this particular wing were among the very best in the USAF, flying the newest planes, with Top Gun mindsets. (I know, I know, Top Gun is Navy.)
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 22, 2022 17:57:38 GMT -5
PP, did you ever cross paths with HC alum Joseph Kerwin? I recall either meeting him once, or being in the same room with him once.. But I was out of NASA by the time he flew his Skylab mission, and he was based in Houston, and I was in Washington. And I did very little work on Skylab, concentrating mostly on a manned Mars mission. Which was entirely dependent on the NERVA nuclear engine, which was cancelled. With no mission to plan for --enough to be morose about and crying in my cups -- so another agency wanted me and I left NASA .
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 22, 2022 18:16:55 GMT -5
Back to the thread title.
Over the three weeks between Jan 3rd and Jan 22nd, 72 students and 125 HC staff tested positive. The big ramp-up in testing starts tomorrow, and all students returning to campus for the spring semester will be tested either tomorrow or Monday.
The tests done on Friday indicate that the percentage of positive tests is declining; there were only seven positive tests, three of which were students. Peak day was January 4th, when nine students and 29 staff tested positive.
Less than half of the nearly 200 recorded positive cases in January-to-date are currently considered by HC to be active cases.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2022 18:36:06 GMT -5
Pak any dealings with a Dr.Willard Pierson? NASA / NYU
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Post by longsuffering on Jan 22, 2022 21:31:19 GMT -5
PP, did you ever cross paths with HC alum Joseph Kerwin? I recall either meeting him once, or being in the same room with him once.. But I was out of NASA by the time he flew his Skylab mission, and he was based in Houston, and I was in Washington. And I did very little work on Skylab, concentrating mostly on a manned Mars mission. Which was entirely dependent on the NERVA nuclear engine, which was cancelled. With no mission to plan for --enough to be morose about and crying in my cups -- so another agency wanted me and I left NASA . You worked on a manned mission to Mars? What's Matt Damon like?🙂
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Post by hcpride on Jan 23, 2022 6:37:14 GMT -5
Back to the thread title. Over the three weeks between Jan 3rd and Jan 22nd, 72 students and 125 HC staff tested positive. The big ramp-up in testing starts tomorrow, and all students returning to campus for the spring semester will be tested either tomorrow or Monday. The tests done on Friday indicate that the percentage of positive tests is declining; there were only seven positive tests, three of which were students. Peak day was January 4th, when nine students and 29 staff tested positive. Less than half of the nearly 200 recorded positive cases in January-to-date are currently considered by HC to be active cases. Is there a HC number at which the vaccinated and boostered and not-at-risk student body can resume normalcy? I’m not even asking the (secret?) number, I’m just wondering if the school has identified one. (It seems there has been a very recent 😉 national media/pol shift in focus from case counts to hospitalizations for Covid…don’t know if HC has a [secret?] target number for that either.)
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 23, 2022 8:20:52 GMT -5
I recall either meeting him once, or being in the same room with him once.. But I was out of NASA by the time he flew his Skylab mission, and he was based in Houston, and I was in Washington. And I did very little work on Skylab, concentrating mostly on a manned Mars mission. Which was entirely dependent on the NERVA nuclear engine, which was cancelled. With no mission to plan for --enough to be morose about and crying in my cups -- so another agency wanted me and I left NASA . You worked on a manned mission to Mars? What's Matt Damon like?🙂 We talked about Hahvud, and Delphic, and Cambridge, and Bahstin. I told him the NERVA rocket engine looked like it came from an Art Deco rocket in the movie Metropolis. He liked that.
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Post by timholycross on Jan 23, 2022 8:40:44 GMT -5
Would love to know who came up with several HC basketball players wearing germ collector (what else can you call them when they are not covering the mouth, never mind not covering the nose) masks during yesterday's ballgame.
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Post by mm67 on Jan 23, 2022 8:51:18 GMT -5
Back to the thread title. Over the three weeks between Jan 3rd and Jan 22nd, 72 students and 125 HC staff tested positive. The big ramp-up in testing starts tomorrow, and all students returning to campus for the spring semester will be tested either tomorrow or Monday. The tests done on Friday indicate that the percentage of positive tests is declining; there were only seven positive tests, three of which were students. Peak day was January 4th, when nine students and 29 staff tested positive. Less than half of the nearly 200 recorded positive cases in January-to-date are currently considered by HC to be active cases. Is there a HC number at which the vaccinated and boostered and not-at-risk student body can resume normalcy? I’m not even asking the (secret?) number, I’m just wondering if the school has identified one. (It seems there has been a very recent 😉 national media/pol shift in focus from case counts to hospitalizations for Covid…don’t know if HC has a [secret?] target number for that either.) Normalcy? Isn't the correct word "normality"?
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 23, 2022 9:17:01 GMT -5
Back to the thread title. Over the three weeks between Jan 3rd and Jan 22nd, 72 students and 125 HC staff tested positive. The big ramp-up in testing starts tomorrow, and all students returning to campus for the spring semester will be tested either tomorrow or Monday. The tests done on Friday indicate that the percentage of positive tests is declining; there were only seven positive tests, three of which were students. Peak day was January 4th, when nine students and 29 staff tested positive. Less than half of the nearly 200 recorded positive cases in January-to-date are currently considered by HC to be active cases. Is there a HC number at which the vaccinated and boostered and not-at-risk student body can resume normalcy? I’m not even asking the (secret?) number, I’m just wondering if the school has identified one. (It seems there has been a very recent 😉 national media/pol shift in focus from case counts to hospitalizations for Covid…don’t know if HC has a [secret?] target number for that either.) The number that HC appears to monitor is # of students in isolation, compared to the isolation capacity, which is around a hundred beds. There was very little if any quarantining in the fall semester, so eliminating quarantine freed up isolation capacity. I believe the downtown hotel was not used as the isolation space in the fall semester, as it had been in the previous semester. I believe the Worcester public health department also has a say in the matter. Holy Cross does monitor closely the COVID-related data for the city of Worcester, and that data can guide some of its decisions. The high number of infected staff (nearly all of whom are fully vaccinated) is affecting the operations of the college. If only a third of the dining room staff are reporting for work, what does that do to Kimball operations? The text below is from the city manager's status report of last Friday.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 23, 2022 9:20:56 GMT -5
Would love to know who came up with several HC basketball players wearing germ collector (what else can you call them when they are not covering the mouth, never mind not covering the nose) masks during yesterday's ballgame. I interpreted that as identifying those players who were in a post-COVID protocol.
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Post by hcpride on Jan 23, 2022 9:34:09 GMT -5
Is there a HC number at which the vaccinated and boostered and not-at-risk student body can resume normalcy? I’m not even asking the (secret?) number, I’m just wondering if the school has identified one. (It seems there has been a very recent 😉 national media/pol shift in focus from case counts to hospitalizations for Covid…don’t know if HC has a [secret?] target number for that either.) The number that HC appears to monitor is # of students in isolation, compared to the isolation capacity, which is around a hundred beds. There was very little if any quarantining in the fall semester, so eliminating quarantine freed up isolation capacity. I believe the downtown hotel was not used as the isolation space in the fall semester, as it had been in the previous semester. I believe the Worcester public health department also has a say in the matter. Holy Cross does monitor closely the COVID-related data for the city of Worcester, and that data can guide some of its decisions. The high number of infected staff (nearly all of whom are fully vaccinated) is affecting the operations of the college. If only a third of the dining room staff are reporting for work, what does that do to Kimball operations? The text below is from the city manager's status report of last Friday. I was hoping there was an actual specific number (or range of numbers) in some specific metric (actually, any metric) that would permit the vaccinated, boostered and not-at-risk student body to return to normalcy. Maybe that secret metric and secret range is in the exorcist tunnel that runs to Fenwick. On another point that would make perfect sense (in the Era of Covid) for students exiting covid protocol to wear masks beneath their chin. 😊
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 23, 2022 10:24:29 GMT -5
Pak any dealings with a Dr.Willard Pierson? NASA / NYU No. And looking up his bio, no particular reason that I ever would. I might have eventually had I remained in the Space Science and Applications Directorate where I worked first and for all of about six months. But I started what was supposed to be a three month rotation in Manned Space Flight, and remained there until I left NASA. ----------------------- Two more NASA stories, and that's it. NASA couldn't classify a manned Mars mission, but those who were scheming up this mission didn't want news about the mission to leak before presenting the proposal to Nixon. I had electronic spreadsheets (way before Lotus 123 or Excel) to price the various mission scenarios and timeframes (unlike in The Martian, there is a launch opportunity about every two years). With my juvenile thinking of that time, I decided to disguise what these spreadsheets were really about, so I titled them after rock groups. CCR I and CCR II were named for Creedence Clearwater Revival (and :"Bad Moon Rising") and 3DN for Three Dog Night. There were one or two others, I can't remember the names. The administrator of NASA and the program and center directors wanted to do a dry run of the Mars mission proposal to Nixon. Couldn't do it at NASA Headquarters or at a NASA Center because it might leak. So they and moi (by far the most junior of the group) fly to LA to do the dry run at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which is a government funded laboratory at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. We are picked up at LAX by several stretch Cadillac limousines, painted gold (Goldfinger gold). In the conference room, no one from JPL is present, and the presentation slides are being flipped by several Associate Administrators of NASA. And I'm thinking to myself, 'Jesus H. Christ, JPL can afford stretch Caddies as official JPL cars, but can't afford audio-visual techs to flip slides.' It took a while for wet-behind-the-ears me to realize the gold limousines were probably hired cars from a service on Hollywood Boulevard.
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Post by Pakachoag Phreek on Jan 23, 2022 10:36:17 GMT -5
The number that HC appears to monitor is # of students in isolation, compared to the isolation capacity, which is around a hundred beds. There was very little if any quarantining in the fall semester, so eliminating quarantine freed up isolation capacity. I believe the downtown hotel was not used as the isolation space in the fall semester, as it had been in the previous semester. I believe the Worcester public health department also has a say in the matter. Holy Cross does monitor closely the COVID-related data for the city of Worcester, and that data can guide some of its decisions. The high number of infected staff (nearly all of whom are fully vaccinated) is affecting the operations of the college. If only a third of the dining room staff are reporting for work, what does that do to Kimball operations? The text below is from the city manager's status report of last Friday. I was hoping there was an actual specific number (or range of numbers) in some specific metric (actually, any metric) that would permit the vaccinated, boostered and not-at-risk student body to return to normalcy. Maybe that secret metric and secret range is in the exorcist tunnel that runs to Fenwick. On another point that would make perfect sense (in the Era of Covid) for students exiting covid protocol to wear masks beneath their chin. 😊 All right, you twisted my arm. The 'secret metric' is adapted from Justice Potter Stewart. 'They'll know it when they see it.'
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Post by hcpride on Jan 23, 2022 13:17:36 GMT -5
Is there a HC number at which the vaccinated and boostered and not-at-risk student body can resume normalcy? I’m not even asking the (secret?) number, I’m just wondering if the school has identified one. (It seems there has been a very recent 😉 national media/pol shift in focus from case counts to hospitalizations for Covid…don’t know if HC has a [secret?] target number for that either.) Normalcy? Isn't the correct word "normality"? LOL. No. It may, in fact, be the perfect word: www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2020/04/how-normalcy-became-a-safe-word/609805/
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