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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 1, 2023 14:53:24 GMT -5
There's a bunch of criteria that goes into an at-large resume -- won-lost record, strength of schedule, ranking in Coaches Poll, FBS wins, etc...but there's one metric that is almost universally accepted as being needed to qualify as an at-large team: Seven wins against Division I (FBS or FCS) schools. I think there may have been one season where Northern Iowa snuck in at 6-5, but that's an outlier.
Bearing that in mind, below are the teams that are still able to reach seven D1 wins. After each weekend, we will eliminate teams who are no longer able to reach the seven win threshold, thereby making the playoff picture a bit clearer for us.
* Not including Ivy, MEAC, or SWAC teams (the latter conferences send their winners to the Celebration Bowl and the only team who would have a chance at an at-large bid would be NC Central) ** I have not included teams that are ineligible for the playoffs
Big Sky
Montana Idaho Montana State Sacramento State Portland State UC Davis
Big South / OVC
SEMO UT Martin Tennessee State Bryant Gardner-Webb Eastern Illinois
CAA
Delaware Richmond Villanova Albany Elon William & Mary Rhode Island Campbell Hampton New Hampshire
Missouri Valley
South Dakota State South Dakota Northern Iowa Southern Illinois North Dakota State North Dakota Youngstown State Illinois State
NEC
Duquesne
Patriot
Lafayette Fordham Holy Cross
Pioneer
Davidson Drake Marist
Southern
Furman Chattanooga Mercer Western Carolina
Southland
Incarnate Word Nicholls
UAC
Austin Peay Eastern Kentucky Central Arkansas
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Post by Crosser on Nov 1, 2023 16:56:40 GMT -5
There’re 46 teams here. Let’s see how many get knocked off this weekend.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 1, 2023 17:35:31 GMT -5
With regards to the SWAC, the only way they have a participating NCAA playoff team is if a team that doesn't qualify for the SWAC Championship Game is good enough for an at-large. Also Grambling, Southern, Alabama State and Alabama A&M are out because they play their rivalry week games Thanksgiving Weekend.
So the only SWAC teams that could reach for 7 DI wins but also operationally be able to participate are Jackson State and Alcorn State. Alcorn would have to lose to Southern as well, otherwise they likely win their division.
MEAC - only at-large scenario is if NC Central loses to Howard but beats Delaware St and Norfolk State to finish at 9-2. This is entirely possible and they play AT Howard.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 4, 2023 15:39:55 GMT -5
The following teams are "eliminated" from an at-large bid after the early games today:
New Hampshire Bryant Marist Campbell
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Post by hcpride on Nov 4, 2023 16:05:19 GMT -5
Can we add W & M to that "eliminated" list (lost to Albany 24-8)? BTW Albany was underrated in the FCS coaches poll IMHO.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 4, 2023 16:07:33 GMT -5
Can we add W & M to that "eliminated" list (lost to Albany 24-8)? BTW Albany was underrated in the FCS coaches poll IMHO. Not officially. They can still get to 7-4, which will almost assuredly won't be enough to get in, but can't go sharpie on them quite yet.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 4, 2023 19:39:05 GMT -5
The following teams are "eliminated" from an at-large bid after the early games today: New Hampshire Bryant Marist Campbell After the late afternoon games, the following teams have also exited: SEMO Eastern Kentucky Portland State Update after this weekend's games -- Big Sky
Montana Idaho Montana State Sacramento State UC Davis Big South / OVC
UT Martin Tennessee State Gardner-Webb Eastern Illinois CAADelaware Richmond Villanova Albany Elon William & Mary Rhode Island Hampton Missouri Valley
South Dakota State South Dakota Northern Iowa Southern Illinois North Dakota State North Dakota Youngstown State Illinois State NECDuquesne PatriotLafayette Fordham Holy Cross PioneerDavidson Drake SouthernFurman Chattanooga Mercer Western Carolina SouthlandIncarnate Word Nicholls UACAustin Peay Central Arkansas
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Post by CHC8485 on Nov 4, 2023 20:33:44 GMT -5
How was SEMO a bubble team at 4-4 going into today? Just because they had a shot to get to 7-4?
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 4, 2023 20:35:13 GMT -5
Just because they had a shot to get to 7-4? Correct.
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Post by efg72 on Nov 4, 2023 20:37:07 GMT -5
All about how the FCS views the Northeast football compared to the rest
Some valid and the rest not so much
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Post by rgs318 on Nov 4, 2023 20:37:32 GMT -5
Patriot Lafayette Fordham Holy Cross
Why is HC listed as #3 when they are now first in the league at 4-1? Lafayette is 3-1 and Fordham has 2 losses.
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Post by Sons of Vaval on Nov 4, 2023 20:39:26 GMT -5
Patriot Lafayette Fordham Holy Cross Why is HC listed as #3 when they are now first in the league at 4-1? Lafgayette is 3-1 and Fordham has 2 losses. There is no significance to the order the teams are listed.
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Post by longsuffering on Nov 4, 2023 21:59:33 GMT -5
All about how the FCS views the Northeast football compared to the rest Some valid and the rest not so much But this is a numerical analysis. All teams left have earned it by being mathematically capable of attaining seven D-1 wins. Opinions about Northeast football aren't considered in this list.
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Post by cruskater31 on Nov 4, 2023 22:01:57 GMT -5
The Nicholls upset of UIW hurts a lot of bubble teams. UIW not only kisses a seed goodbye but might not win the autobid out of the Southland. Had Nicholls lost, they'd probably be out of it with 5 losses. Now Southland is up for grabs with Nicholls undefeated at the top, one ahead of one loss UIW and Lamar. Lamar Nicholls could be for the conference next week (UIW has a forfeit win next win over NW State.
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Post by alum on Nov 5, 2023 6:21:51 GMT -5
I fooled around with a side experiment off of this one. I assumed that MVFC and Big Sky schools could get in as at larges with 7 D1 wins, that a Pioneer team could get in at large with 9 wins and that everyone else could get in with 8. Right now there are about 24 schools playing for those 14 spots.
Cruskater pointed out the Southland problem. A similar issue exists in the UAC game with Austin Peay and Central Arkansas and to a lesser degree in the Ohio Valley.
Going into yesterday, I thought that there was a better chance HC could go 3-0 than Lafayette could lose two. I think that has flipped especially with Dobbs and Sluka hurting.
This is going to be fun!
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 5, 2023 6:52:51 GMT -5
Deciphering the CAA auto-bid should be fun the next couple of weeks. Currently a 5-way tie at 5-1. Possible that Elon could win the conference and the automatic berth with a 7-4 record.
Definitely in our interests for Richmond to beat Elon...and then W&M to beat Richmond to end the season. That would place Elon at 6-5 and both Richmond and UR at 7-4 at best.
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Post by hcpride on Nov 5, 2023 7:22:47 GMT -5
The auto-bid became our best bet after losing to Laffy (interestingly enough) and now becomes somewhat more likely with Lafayette’s loss.
After losing to Laffy, “at large” (given the highly unlikely prospects of winning NOV 11 at West Point plus the uncertainty even if that highly unlikely win came about) became a bridge too far.
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Post by drjack on Nov 5, 2023 7:58:26 GMT -5
We are for sure in if we win at Army.
I'm still rooting for that outcome, it's entirely in our control as opposed to just hoping someone loses once over two weeks.
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Post by alum on Nov 5, 2023 8:20:40 GMT -5
We are for sure in if we win at Army. I'm still rooting for that outcome, it's entirely in our control as opposed to just hoping someone loses once over two weeks. I still think we are in with an Army win, but the potential extra teams from the Southland and UAC could force the committee to pick HC over a sixth MVFC school and that discussion makes me a little nervous.
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Post by drjack on Nov 5, 2023 8:30:54 GMT -5
UIW is done. They have a really weak schedule and have a win over North American on their schedule.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 5, 2023 8:49:06 GMT -5
We are for sure in if we win at Army. I'm still rooting for that outcome, it's entirely in our control as opposed to just hoping someone loses once over two weeks. If we win at Army AND at home against Georgetown, yes. Let's remember the Hoyas are far from a pushover this year, especially with our young D and injury issues. We just won a nip-and-tuck game against a bad Lehigh team. Georgetown is a step up from that.
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Post by efg72 on Nov 5, 2023 8:50:48 GMT -5
All about how the FCS views the Northeast football compared to the rest Some valid and the rest not so much But this is a numerical analysis. All teams left have earned it by being mathematically capable of attaining seven D-1 wins. Opinions about Northeast football aren't considered in this list. Of course when the evaluate teams the 3 PL teams are considered the same as those with 7 or 8 wins from the Sky. Valley, Southern, and CAA leagues— imho I don't think that is the case
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Post by drjack on Nov 5, 2023 8:54:01 GMT -5
We are for sure in if we win at Army. I'm still rooting for that outcome, it's entirely in our control as opposed to just hoping someone loses once over two weeks. If we win at Army AND at home against Georgetown, yes. Let's remember the Hoyas are far from a pushover this year, especially with our young D and injury issues. We just won a nip-and-tuck game against a bad Lehigh team. Georgetown is a step up from that. Good correction, I just was just acting under the assumption that was a given. We wouldn't deserve an at large bid with a loss against either Lehigh or Georgetown regardless of the Army outcome.
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Post by nycrusader2010 on Nov 5, 2023 9:01:33 GMT -5
If we win at Army AND at home against Georgetown, yes. Let's remember the Hoyas are far from a pushover this year, especially with our young D and injury issues. We just won a nip-and-tuck game against a bad Lehigh team. Georgetown is a step up from that. Good correction, I just was just acting under the assumption that was a given. We wouldn't deserve an at large bid with a loss against either Lehigh or Georgetown regardless of the Army outcome. I wouldn't pencil in a G'Town win as a given, if you took a look at their results. Beat Lehigh 17-7 Beat Fordham 28-24 Lost to a good Penn team 42-39 Lost to current PL leader in the loss column Lafayette 35-25 They had a stretch of two really bad games after starting 2-0 => losing to Stonehill and getting stomped 30-0 by Columbia. That being said, I don't see the ultimate competitor Matt Sluka losing his likely last home game at Fitton Field.
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Post by drjack on Nov 5, 2023 9:06:39 GMT -5
I wouldn't say I'm thinking of them as an easy win, I'm just saying if you want to be in the playoffs, a victory over Georgetown is a requirement. Full stop.
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